 Poster: A snowHead
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12z ensembles switch things about bit.
According to GFS the snow which had looked to fall in the western Alps tomorrow seems to have been downgraded, the snow that was due to fall in the eastern Alps (see the Arlberg above) has been upgraded...
At same time FI seems to be almost an inverse of the 06z run with the control and operational zig zagging around in FI, but on a noticeably colder track.
The trend is for a return towards seasonal averages by the end of run and the end of the first week of December, but the ensembles are clearly struggling to pick a clear route.
Regardless it looks like a very cold last week of November in the Alps and a cold and possibly snowy first week of December 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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12z
GFS
FI
Anyone care to enlighten me on any of this? Or shall I not bother myself and just read between the lines that it is going to be getting really cold next week and with some snow
Cheers
Smag
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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smagsmith, well done. thousands don't. However, when I started trying to make sense of that lot I was very confused by charts which didn't seem to reflect the words. Then I realised that some of the links update themselves automatically - thus a post by carled, which is central to the whole thing and made in 2004 now shows a chart for tonight. And tomorrow it will show a chart for tomorrow, which is a lot less than helpful.
so yes, it's going to be very cold for a bit, but fairly dry in the northern Alps. And F1 is a long way off and can safely be ignored for a week. Obsessing about F1 is a surefire route to madness 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Obsessing about F1 is a surefire route to madness
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Or even FI
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nozawaonsen, yes, F1 is the cars, isn't it? 
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Meteo Chamonix.org is announcing some increasingly cold weather arrving this week with the freezing level reaching valley level. Bring it on!
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It will be intriguing to see how the 18z ensembles come out. The 18z run this evening took things warmer quite rapidly from around the end of the month. 12z ECM also saw the cold weather breaking down around the same time. The ECM operational run was an outlier, so will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS is to (as ever is the outlier a trendsetter or has it gone rogue?).
But a breakdown in the cold weather is obviously likely at some point... Temperatures in the Alps can't be running 10c and more below average for that long... And of course a breakdown and a strengthening Atlantic could herald the arrival of some more low pressure systems... And snow...
So interesting to watch. Off in FI, but I'm still keeping an eye on the period round 30 November/01 December...
GFS ensembles for Alps out in about an hour...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Very interesting weather options around the 30 November and 01 December in the west! Look at that low pressure! That said the rise in temperatures means it will be a mixed blessing at lower altitude. Operational takes it cold again at the end of the run.
Back to the pub for me...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, thank you so much for the updates, means a lot to many!
P.s. How's your patience threshold?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Hang about there's a blonde pouring my pint... |
Does that affect the weather?  I shall have to be more careful in the future.
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You know it makes sense.
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rob@rar, have you never heard about the power of a Warm Front?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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pam w, oh yes, I have frequntly been caught out by that kind of maelstrom.
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brian
brian
Guest
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There's nothing like an abundance of moisture in your warm sector, I always say. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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moffatross, yeah, there are some unappealing options out there (course that could depend on whose pulling what...)
Breakdown options are there and there about at the endod the month...
But.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Maybe...
As it were...
Blonde barmaids and all that...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Again a lot of today's action is in the period at the end of the month.
Temperatures across the Alps (and indeed the UK) are diving down for the next week. Very cold. And in amongst these cold temperatures it looks like there could be some more snow coming through on the 26th - handy for those places openning this weekend!
By the middle of next week though it looks like a change in the pattern with warmer temperatures trying to assert themselves and at the same time potentially quite a lot of precipitation, where the snow line is will be key because if for example it followed the 00z control it would bring heavy rain to the western Alps up to at least 2000m - mind you it would be followed by decent snowfall a day later.
After that the rest of FI looks to be closer to, but still below, seasonal average.
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nozawaonsen, what do you think the pennines/ Yorkshire moors will be like over the weekend conditions wise,'how much snowmif any I'll there be come Sunday?'cheers
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Ricklovesthepowder, I am not sure we should be asking nozawaonsen to many questions about specific areas regarding how much snow we might get, I think the regular overview given by nozawaonsen for the alps and UK is brilliant, so lets not get bogged down with the specifics !!! Snowforecast or the Met office is good enough for 3 day forecasts.
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so... if i were to fly somewhere on the evening of 3 Dec in the hope of catching some nice snow, where do the soothsayers reckon - geneva or zurich?
conditions at Engelberg are looking quite promising, although Zinal might also be worth a look esp since it will not be open during the week so won't be getting skied out... decisions decisions!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
heavy rain to the western Alps up to at least 2000m - mind you it would be followed by decent snowfall a day later.
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well we're quite used to that sort of pattern - FL dropping as the low blows through. Better than a relentless dry high.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Arno, How are the depths looking? I'd pick one with the most depth for rock coverage....does it ave to be geneva as Austrian resorts are less rocky......
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Arno, Zinal may not be open to the public during the week, however this does not mean that the ski area is not in use.
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You know it makes sense.
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snowbunny, true enough, although i can't see there being enough touring traffic to track the place out completely
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, looking at the 3 charts after that, although there'll be snow for everybody, it could get quite serious over eastern parts of the British Isles next week.
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brian
brian
Guest
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Arno, it's open all week for race training, can't seem them spending much time in the places you'd want to go though.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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This evening's ensembles follow a similar pattern to this morning's pattern, but ups the ante...
Over the Alps the 26th will see quite a bit of snowfall down to low levels amongst the cold temperatures.
The low pressure coming through at the end of the month (29 November to 01 December) will raise temperatures and potentially bring through some very heavy precipitation in the French Alps, heavy snow above 2000m. The east would get some precipitation, but not on the same scale (although 06z did have some heavier options for Austria).
Temperatures look like they would like cool down rapidly, before a further system again delivers slightly warmer temperatures and more snow above 2000m both east and west on 5/6 December.
That same low pressure if it played out would offer some quite serious wintery options in the UK!
(Ricklovesthepowder wouldn't like to hazard a guess, how snowfall plays out over the UK is going to be tricky to tell, localised and liable to changing at short notice... But based on the current forecasts you would have to guess it would look quite snowy...)
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nozawaonsen, cheers, i hope youe are correct!!! There are 4 of us going for a walk into the Yorkshire Dales on Sunday and im taking my skis just incase, they think im crazy!!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hmmm, not sure it will be skiing weather, but you never know. Could be quite blowy.
Met Office have got an advisory out for Yorkshire and Met Monkey is expecting:
"a particularly potent spell of wintry weather to affect many areas towards the end of the week with North East Scotland, Northumberland, Yorkshire and parts of the East Pennines especially bad. Snow accumulations of 20 – 30cm will be possible, perhaps in excess in drifting."
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Ricklovesthepowder, My skis emerged this evening for a quick wax for monday in the peak district. Met calling for up to 30cm by monday plus winds leading to some heavily loaded leeward slopes and with several north facing grassy bowls dropping from 500m to 250m it definately looks on the cards. Think I might just be a little to far to the west though to catch the best of it though.
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rambotion, keep me updated!!! im taking mine on sunday and even if i get a few turns in then i will be happy!!! I also have 1 day o holiday to take before the end of the year so hopefully yadd moss will get a good sump before then.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
winds leading to some heavily loaded leeward slopes
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those are the ones which tend to avalanche, aren't they?
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This is definitely my favourite thread at the moment  Things looking to be shaping up for a reasonable start to the season. Really looking forward to getting back in the mountains.
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