 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
@Whitegold, not sure I would trust that particular AI. It's not very intelligent, it can't even get the dates correct. Saturday is the 25th and Monday the 27th
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| Whitegold wrote: |
Experiment time...
175 cm of snow between Tuesday, November 21st, and Thursday, November 30th, 2023.
western Alps.... up to 200 cm of snow.
eastern Alps......up to 100 cm of snow. |
Ok that's the AI summary, even though the weekend dates quoted were slightly off.....might be a time zone issue or typo?
I'd like to see the bots get this right of course, and better forecasting tools are a good thing whether AI or algos. I would use their models more if the output was as accessible and as easy to read as traditional models like on meteociel.fr or wetter.de. But we need more time anyway to assess AI verification stats over a long period.
I also love a challenge.....this could be a whole new take on man vs machine, notwithstanding the fact that man is also using machine-generated output......as opposed to automnal leaves, farmers almanac and the moon cycles. And what will the same AI model say in 2 days time?.....the main event is Fri 24th onwards, so plenty of runs to come for adjustments.
As things are, I reluctantly  stand with the East. Saturday, Op runs from 7 old school models show a pretty good Nordstau
      
Monday onwards is more uncertain, ie 27th to 30th.....it could be high pressure overall (a "toppler" for those with bingo cards), or the low's might check back west (staying very cold but drier).....multiple options. So the way I see it is the east will be well ahead by Monday, and then it's more open to chance. The west could get lucky (latest GFS and ECM show promise)....but I don't see the relative 2:1 numbers above for the west as realistic.
edit....just remembered the moon cycle post by Roger Smith, he suggested northern blocking is likely around month ends this season.....and it looks like a north atlantic / iceland block will form 24-26th and probably beyond……not bad.
Found the wording
“ some colder blocking patterns will emerge around full moons which occur near the ends of each month in winter 2023-24. The actual northern declination max will be after full moon in Nov, concurrent in Dec, and earlier in Jan-Feb. A particularly stormy signal would be associated with the opposite end of this lunar declination cycle, new moons around 10th to mid-months”
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Forecast is sourced from Bard.
Pasted in raw, unedited.
Let's see.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
See the problem here is that the AI here (which is a LLM) is not actually doing any thinking about forecasting. It is simply taking the information available from whatever websites it is allowed to scrape and regurgitating it. It isn't reading forecasts and data from models either. It is simply regurgitating the text it can find on the subject.
The AI that I was talking about above is actually generating a data based forecast. The theory is similar to how a LLM works but the output is a completely different thing.
So the upshot is basically the above is just Wepowder or some other website's verbose interpretation of forecast models regurgitated in a slightly different order. So it won't be any more or less accurate than you can already find.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
And of course that is all the websites are doing as well. Using human forecasters to interpret the models and writing some nice words.
@polo, the AI's will produce exactly the same data points that traditional models use. Displaying it is up to those at the forecasting centres to decide. No reason that they would choose a different way to do it than they currently use.
THE AI basically says:
This is what happened in the past in this situation based on all the historical data. This is most likely what will happen in the future. The more historical data it has the more accurate its prediction.
Current forecasting:
Based on some some "close enough" equations we use to estimate highly complex interactions of particles, this is what will happen in 6 hours. Then we put the 6 hour forecast in and run those equations again. and again. Errors compound obviously.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Latest snow maps out to the 28th approx
 
And if you flick thru the 7 models here, total ppn maps all showing similar results
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/central-europe/accumulated-precipitation/20231129-0000z.html
From ECMWF site, here are 3 AI models wind and pressure charts for Sat 25th....but I'm not used to reading this format of display, which is very different to meteociel charts.
  
Verification stats for 5 AI models (summer months), shows AIFS and Graphcast are leading, but they all taper off dramatically after day 5, so no better than traditional models yet, as far as I can tell.
Big shift in EC46 overnight for week 27th nov - 4th dec, yesterdays vs todays, much better atlantic ridge and cold trough into eastern europe
 
AO is definitely going negative again, with NAO also tacking along, but not as deep....just means slightly better odds of cold pattern lasting, but no guarantee
 
Looking at the change in regime charts over the last 10days....big shift to purple ATR (atlantic ridge) and less of blue NAO+ signal out to dec 10th. These mid range charts are based on same data as EC46 afaik, so like any model beyond a week it will get progessively less reliable out to week 6. Interesting to look at like all data in that range, but I wouldn't be booking or cancelling ski trips from them. Most interesting bit is again how quickly this atlantic ridge took over and caught a number of respected meteorologists by surprise, GFS though was consistently good from about 10 days out.
 
And a look at the 3 means for 29th.....not great agreement apart from the huge atlantic block and lows to the E/SE. Possible scandi high link up, but overall cold and dry (especially western end, vs last 5 weeks)
  
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Looks like we're in for a quiet enough week or so eh? Still, that brings us into December and plenty of time for the season to do what its actually supposed to do.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| elefantfresh wrote: |
| Looks like we're in for a quiet enough week or so eh? Still, that brings us into December and plenty of time for the season to do what its actually supposed to do. |
EDIT: although Austria looks like its going to get plenty of action
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| elefantfresh wrote: |
| elefantfresh wrote: |
| Looks like we're in for a quiet enough week or so eh? Still, that brings us into December and plenty of time for the season to do what its actually supposed to do. |
EDIT: although Austria looks like its going to get plenty of action |
Austria - Friday/Saturday onwards looks very promising with low temperatures. Initial rain, followed by days of snowfall. According to ECMRW and the BBC.
https://www.bergfex.at/sommer/rohrmoos-untertal/wetter/
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Tue 21-11-23 18:13; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
@elefantfresh, Might be dry ish but at least the temperatures are falling which will at last allow the cannons to be on , which I suspect quite a few resorts are really hoping for . Dare I say that some will be wishing for dry cold rather than marginal snow .
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
A quick look at Tignes (selfish, as thats where we're heading next month) and its saying -18c at one point over the weekend - brrrr!
Some right proper cold coming, at last.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quite a few of the forecast sites have a reasonable period of snow over the weekend in the PdS at the moment. Not major dumpage, but a decent fall in Avoriaz and above (and maybe even a bit in Morzine). Wishful thinking?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
@andy from embsay, depends on the site you are looking at, but I think a lot of them (e.g. Snowforecast) use the GFS operational run, which is just one small part of one weather model. For Morzine, the GFS operational run is currently a snowy outlier compared to other ensemble members.
Snowforecast currently forecasts 31cm for midmountain in Morzine this weekend. It's not impossible, but the average amount of snow forecast by all the members together is more like 10cm or less. (That's just GFS - other weather models are available). On the plus side, temperature isn't an issue - any snow that does fall should fall right down to Morzine or below.
Switzerland and Austria currently likely to see heavier snow - France is a little bit too far west this time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
Thanks @denfinella, oddly Snowforecast is about the only one I’ve not looked at! Bergfex, Wepowder, Meteo France, the BBC and the PdS app all have a steady, if not necessarily heavy, period of snow from Friday through to Sunday morning.
I couldn’t see any sign of it on any of the ensembles hence the question - and as we’re in Morzine this weekend have a particularly interest in this period!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Should I be getting excited for Alpe d’Huez at the end of the month?
Two runs on the meteociel site showing snow?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
@Alpinebear, too far away at the moment, no doubt it will change!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
@under a new name, it's an interesting site that Meteoblue, will add it to my watchlist. Lot's of model info there but I couldn't find the source for their precipitation numbers on the main 7 day page you posted above. I suspect they are using their multiple in-house models, as opposed to averaging all the 3rd party ones. However, if you go to their multi-model page it does show some very nice graphs, so looking at the NW alps (let's go with Les Gets as a random proxy  )......
The standard 7 day page is showing a range of 50-90cm out to tues 28th, but I will be pleasantly surprised if this turns out to be accurate. Looking at the broader multi model diagramme though you can see that just GEM and NEMS2 show big ppn spikes, with most models a lot more conservative. Shame there isn't a mean level displayed, but the darker blue bars indicate level of consensus. Also nice that you can see each model's date range and altitude grid point below.
It's unusual to see GFS at the low end of ppn forecasts given that it is usually one of the models that overdoes the depth of lows. But on this occasion it's more to do with how far west the main fronts are progged and just inter model noise.....different resolution etc. Best to look at shorter range models as above (NEMS), or even WRF, Arome and Arpege from the meteociel site, but it's still a little early to compare these.
A nordstau set up will cover the northern alps in good cold (actual powder) snow to very low levels. That does generally include the NW alps but weak flow here can get stopped by the Jura and other pre alps obstacles. Especially in the PdS as it is tucked in below lac Leman. On the other hand inner valleys can end up with all day light snowfall under slack pressure. Very hard to guess how much will fall, but hopefully enough to ride freshies again. A more NW'ly flow would deliver deeper but lower quality snow.....in general I would prefer 30cm of average snow at 1500m than say 5-10cm of powder down to 1000m. But as above there is a chance for decent amounts of pow falling here too with the current outlook.
So that's the weekend......champagne pow for the north, with a bit of luck required further west. SE europe (Balkans) should also do very well as the lows re-energise (cyclogenesis) over the Adriatic.
Looking into next week, 27th-4th, EC46 makes another move SW....so more upgrades.
The key here is going to be any energy that can break thru the atlantic ridge before it gets cut off to the north. Even a small area of low pressure will draw the main trough westwards. Incredibly it's the same low that was south of Greenland last week that caused so much trouble for the models to see the developing nordstau. Most models had that low flattening the atlantic ridge and pushing everything too far east. But they underestimated the strength of the block, meaning cold air can now flow down the eastern flank to the alps.
Fast forward to today and the remnants of that stalled low are trying to phase with the scandi trough. For the second week in a row that single area of low pressure way out in the NW atlantic is going to have a big impact on how far west the snow will track. Some examples.....Sunday below is the key timeframe for the track of that low (south of Iceland)....we want it heading SE to phase with main scandi / east europe trough.
      
Even if it weakens again, or doesn't phase at all like ECM (5th chart), there is still some regression likely so western snow might just be delayed. The main ensembles show a slight 'warming' Sun-Thurs as the above plays out, but even then we are looking at going from -5c up to 0 near 1500m. No sign of any boiling on these charts with the mean staying largely below zero for 2 weeks (but will change).
 
Looking at the 3 mean pressure anomalies for 29th again, it looks even messier than yesterday.....so a lot of moving parts, low odds on forecasting snow amounts, generally very cold, with more flurries
  
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| Thanks @denfinella, oddly Snowforecast is about the only one I’ve not looked at! Bergfex, Wepowder, Meteo France, the BBC and the PdS app all have a steady, if not necessarily heavy, period of snow from Friday through to Sunday morning. |
OK, I'm not sure what models they all use (or could be bespoke / a combination as polo says. Some of the other models are admittedly a bit snowier for Morzine than GFS, though none seem to be forecasting a big fall of snow for this weekend. Beyond that there's scope for more snowfalls next week - anywhere from dustings to moderate falls. With a bit of luck the cumulative effect might be quite useful.
Both the likely scenarios are cold or coolish. As polo has again mentioned, the cold (nordstau) scenario favour northern Switzerland / Austria with snow into the valleys, but France isn't so favoured. Whereas the coolish (NW-erly) scenario can bring more snow to northern France, northern Switzerland and the (Vor)Arlberg with a slightly higher snowline. Most of Italy is drier in both scenarios, but the temperatures should be good for snowmaking, which is comprehensive in most Italian ski areas.
Note that the Arlberg does well in both cases - looking very promising for that region.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
As someone with no idea what any of the graphs means, what is likely to be the best French resort in early December? I am presuming Val Thorens and Tignes will be among the best. Is there anything to choose between the two?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| andy from embsay wrote: |
Thanks @denfinella, oddly Snowforecast is about the only one I’ve not looked at! Bergfex, Wepowder, Meteo France, the BBC and the PdS app all have a steady, if not necessarily heavy, period of snow from Friday through to Sunday morning.
I couldn’t see any sign of it on any of the ensembles hence the question - and as we’re in Morzine this weekend have a particularly interest in this period! |
Snowforecast has decent amounts of snow Fri/Sat for Ellmau; even 30cm at village level, and temps at the top down to -12C. Pretty good for November if true...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@VTSkier, nobody knows & nobody can predict, height usually helps but recently Austria (with lower slopes) has been getting more snow than France.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| kitenski wrote: |
| @VTSkier, nobody knows & nobody can predict, height usually helps but recently Austria (with lower slopes) has been getting more snow than France. |
I've seen this many times over the years, in Nov/Dec. Austria's often lower altitude, countered by being far further away from the relatively mild NW Atlantic and nearness to cold blasts from Finland or Russia.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Some forecasts suggesting 100cm of snowfall possible for parts of Italy next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Does anyone know how the pyrenees will be like in 2023/23 season? Very hard to find historical details for that region
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
@Theobane,
| Quote: |
Does anyone know how the pyrenees will be like in 2023/23 season?
|
Simple answer, I'm afraid (and welcome to SHs) is no. Long term predictions don't really work.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| under a new name wrote: |
@Theobane,
| Quote: |
Does anyone know how the pyrenees will be like in 2023/23 season?
|
Simple answer, I'm afraid (and welcome to SHs) is no. Long term predictions don't really work. |
Thank you!
Ah pity, really curious how El Nino could effect the season in that neck of the woods as its hard to find historical data of snowfall for Andorra (it was as if they only started recording in the last 5 years)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
The Arlberg is about to get pounded
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Got a short - 3days ski - trip coming up on 9th December and have been holding out to see where the snow is … Lech looking very likely indeed (and love it there so starting to feel very happy!)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
@Soozm, When you do a last minute booking (which it looks like you're about to do) where/how do you do it? I'm always afraid places will be booked out or the flights will be crazy prices etc? I book yonks in advance!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| elefantfresh wrote: |
| @Soozm, When you do a last minute booking (which it looks like you're about to do) where/how do you do it? I'm always afraid places will be booked out or the flights will be crazy prices etc? I book yonks in advance! |
easyjet black friday £70 return flight
Sunweb black friday deals for accomodation & lift pass
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
@elefantfresh, Well this will be the first time I’ve done it (for skiing)! Previously I have been with the family which means school holidays and booking reasonably in advance. This trip is just me and a friend though and after some snowhead encouragement we’re going to leave it til we can see snow conditions and possibly even an indication of weather.
This does mean our flights won’t be the cheapest but we are banking on the fact it’s low season and all the kids are at school so there should be availability.
I always book our holidays independently anyway - flights with BA/ Easyjet, transfers direct after searching quotes and accommodation (hotel) either on booking.com or by looking on travel sites then booking direct.
I will admit to being a little nervous about flight availability as we’re going for Austria rather than France via Geneva.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thank you guys for that feedback - not sure I could deal with the uncertainty! Outside of our normal trips, I've actually booked a week off work for end of March with the intention of doing exactly that but based on the weather - if conditions are not great, i'll cancel the leave.
Sorry for derailing - back to the weather
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@elefantfresh, after years of bad experiences booking in advance I was always wondering "could you just book last minute where you know snow will be good?"
Eventually I did, haven't looked back since and go on two to three last minute trips each year. Rarely pay too much for flight, sometimes very little. You can always get accomodation somewhere, worst case scenario in a satellite town, but a lot of places won't take short bookings until the last minute when they know they don't have a full week from someone else so it can suit them too
The main problem is constantly checking the forecast and torturing yourself as to whether you can make work / family / life align and whether it will really be worth it, there are lots of variables so to whether it is really worth it. But there's no feeling like heading out to the airport then skiing fresh powder off quiet midweek lifts while everyone else is working!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@Theobane, I think the last two years were pretty poor there, so hopefully better this year. Interestingly they are said to benefit a lot from early season snow, I hit it pre chrimbo at the end (ish) of our lockdown in 21 for fear I would be prevented from going again and it was bonanza, like a foot and a half of fresh
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Theobane wrote: |
| Does anyone know how the pyrenees will be like in 2023/23 season? Very hard to find historical details for that region |
Last 2 years have been shite, its snowing right now though !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
