 Poster: A snowHead
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| Old Fartbag wrote: |
PRIVATE EYE:
Number crunching
Issue 1516
1,666 - Deaths recorded as result of new coronavirus by last Sunday, according to World Health Organization
290,000–650,000 - Deaths from respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year, according to World Health Organization |
Sure, again not meaning to be argumentative, but what you state is not helpful. The seasonal flu deaths makes a death rate of about 0.1%. If the no. if coronavirus cases stops rising then happy days, but if millions get infected...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Old Fartbag wrote: |
PRIVATE EYE:
Number crunching
Issue 1516
1,666 - Deaths recorded as result of new coronavirus by last Sunday, according to World Health Organization
290,000–650,000 - Deaths from respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year, according to World Health Organization |
As was posted by someone with a pharma background a few pages earlier, this virus is signficantly more infectious than ordinary flu. It is also more deadly once you get it. I think their analysis was both by a factor of two. This makes is significantly more dangerous than seasonal flu. The higher rate of infection means it could grow exponentially so the numbers you quote for season flu would be dwarfed.It may be possible to look at Wuhan and see what numbers died there and compare that to how many people die of flu their annually and extrapolate? |
I posted that, not because I don't take CV seriously - but to offset Whitegold's deliberate scaremongering/trolling.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@8611 it's not flat earthing, it's trying to bring a sense of perspective. The Hysterical media headlines are causing widespread panic and inciting the (already largely stupid) Great British Public to further excesses of stupid thoughts and actions judging by the questions and comments that have been around on TV and radio today.
You only have to look at the ongoing clamour for largely useless face masks to see how easily led people are. Monkey see, monkey do. So many people on here and elsewhere seem to think they know better than the FO on how to deal with this and post information that flies in the face of what experts are saying elsewhere.
Yes it's serious but no, it shouldn't stop anyone going via Milan to go skiing until or unless the experts advise otherwise.
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Some interesting stats on this site, albeit I literally know nothing about how reliable the website is beyond having clicked some of the sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Including the following for those suggesting previously there were only more cases in Italy than the UK because of testing:
Number of tests and positivity rate for Covid-19 as of today
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). [source]
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]
And the following for those who maintain everywhere apart from the exclusion zones is perfectly safe:
- Milan (population of about 1.5 million people) has 2 confirmed cases. For comparison, among travelers returning from Milan, there are at least 5 confirmed cases: in Croatia, Germany, France, Spain, and Finland.
Which to me suggests two things - that you can quite clearly contract it in Milan itself and that it would appear cases are under-reported there, and perhaps significantly so
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@8611, really, those stats mean nothing. Do you honestly think everyone who currently has a cold in the UK has gone to their nearest A&E for a test? i seriously doubt it.
If they're not already in hospital, half of N.Italy will have self-diagnosed and be on antibiotics by now anyway 
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oldfartbag I meant this post:
| richb67 wrote: |
Hi,
There are a few questions on here comparing Coronavirus to the flu and whether people should be worried, bottom line is that the risk is higher but still not massive for the 'average' person. I personally am not worried for my own health.
I am not a medical professional but do work in pharma and have done some self research so thought it might be worthwhile briefly trying to explain why governments are more worried about Coronavirus (CV) than flu, it is purely because of the potential impact. There are varied figures available so I’ve chosen some mid ground values I found from reputable sources, the numbers themselves aren’t that important it’s their relative values compared to flu that is causing the concern. Sobering thought - The 1918-20 flu pandemic is estimatedto have killed 1-3% of the global population.
The main reasons are
1. Ability to spread – the average person with flu passes it on to 1.3 other people, for CV the initial reported figure is 2.2 so it may spread almost twice as quickly and this is enough to result in exponential spread.
2. Impact, in the US an estimated 1% of people with flu need to go to hospital and 0.05% of people who get the flu each year die. For CV in China it’s looking like up to 5% of people may need hospital care and 1-2% die (although figures been 0.4% and 2.7% have been reported).
So they are worried that the disease will spread very quickly (2x flu) and infect many more people, overwhelm hospitals (5x number of patients cf flu) and result in significant number of deaths (20-40x flu).
Obviously there is a vaccine for flu which can be effective and reduce the rate of spread and Coronavirus vaccine is probably a couple of years away.
I'm not trying to be a doom monger just give context, these numbers are why such draconian measures are being implemented in Italy and elsewhere, the current number of deaths are tragic but almost irrelevant.
Of course it could just all calm down and young(ish) healthy individuals are unlikely to develop severe symptoms so on a personal level it might not be a problem but obviously one healthy person carrying the virus with virtually no symptoms could easily spread it to many other people without realising so the best way to stop the spread is to stop people meeting. You might not be at risk but you may BE the risk for others.
Note – I am a random guy on the internet and this is just to try and put some context around the measures being taken in Italy and elsewhere because I found the numbers interesting. I won’t get involved in discussion on the accuracy of the numbers as I'm working and one of the issues is that there has not been sufficient time for the medical community to agree on these |
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| Bodeswell wrote: |
@8611, really, those stats mean nothing. Do you honestly think everyone who currently has a cold in the UK has gone to their nearest A&E for a test? i seriously doubt it.
If they're not already in hospital, half of N.Italy will have self-diagnosed and be on antibiotics by now anyway |
Antibiotics won't be much use against a virus. Just sayin'
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Oh and:
| Quote: |
Germany 'on cusp of epidemic'
Health Minister Jens Spahn has warned that Germany is facing an epidemic after five new cases were confirmed in the west and south of the country - bringing the national total to about 20. |
Strap in, other European countries.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| carled wrote: |
| Bodeswell wrote: |
@8611, really, those stats mean nothing. Do you honestly think everyone who currently has a cold in the UK has gone to their nearest A&E for a test? i seriously doubt it.
If they're not already in hospital, half of N.Italy will have self-diagnosed and be on antibiotics by now anyway |
Antibiotics won't be much use against a virus. Just sayin' |
I know mate, it's a joke. I know a few Italians...
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@carled, yeah but what about if you throw them really hard at the virus when it’s not looking? Might work?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Bodeswell wrote: |
| carled wrote: |
| Bodeswell wrote: |
@8611, really, those stats mean nothing. Do you honestly think everyone who currently has a cold in the UK has gone to their nearest A&E for a test? i seriously doubt it.
If they're not already in hospital, half of N.Italy will have self-diagnosed and be on antibiotics by now anyway |
Antibiotics won't be much use against a virus. Just sayin' |
I know mate, it's a joke. I know a few Italians... |
Ah, yes. I see your point! Sorry for the whoosh over my head there.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @carled, yeah but what about if you throw them really hard at the virus when it’s not looking? Might work? |
Antibiotics or face masks? Equally effective I suppose 
I'm wondering how far I can run through Milan airport whilst holding my breath...
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| Bodeswell wrote: |
| @8611, really, those stats mean nothing. |
The first stat means the suggestion made previously that the reason for the heightened number of cases in Italy, as distinct to the UK, was due to heightened testing in Italy, is, unequivocally, wrong.
The second stat is in response to somebody else criticising me for suggesting that travelling to a region adjacent to those in lockdown was not necessarily a great idea. It suggests, on the face of it, that 5 travellers have picked up the virus in Milan. If that is correct (and I accept it may simply represent persons who were elsewhere and then returned home via Milan) then the position is rather more concerning.
Otherwise I don't quite get your point
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You know it makes sense.
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| 8611 wrote: |
]
And the following for those who maintain everywhere apart from the exclusion zones is perfectly safe:
- Milan (population of about 1.5 million people) has 2 confirmed cases. For comparison, among travelers returning from Milan, there are at least 5 confirmed cases: in Croatia, Germany, France, Spain, and Finland.
Which to me suggests two things - that you can quite clearly contract it in Milan itself and that it would appear cases are under-reported there, and perhaps significantly so |
Do you have any evidence that these people only visited Milan and not one of the red zones near there?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@8611, My point is that unless they're testing everyone with a cold, the stats mean nothing.
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Poster: A snowHead
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And there are no Italian "regions" in lockdown. There are town's in lockdown.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I’m struggling to believe that, at this point in time, the Italians have only tested two and a bit thousand more people than the UK.
That doesn’t seem plausible.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@8611, in Turin, everybody off our flight and the other flight landing at same time had their temps checked. Presumably anybody failing that crude check would then be further tested. Returning to UK no checks were made of ANY kind.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| carled wrote: |
Oh and:
| Quote: |
Germany 'on cusp of epidemic'
Health Minister Jens Spahn has warned that Germany is facing an epidemic after five new cases were confirmed in the west and south of the country - bringing the national total to about 20. |
Strap in, other European countries. |
Less than a week ago, cases were few and isolated in Europe, it was known how everyone had contracted Covid-19. Then we heard of first few cases in Italy where it was not clear how transmission occurred and 1st death by someone who contracted disease in Italy. LESS THAN 1 WEEK LATER Italy has 470 cases (147 today alone). This will could be in 1000s by time Ireland would have been due to play Italy. I haven't seen the German report, but unfortunately while 5 cases might seem trivial, it is highly concerning
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@carled, Totally true, that will make things worse in the long run. But most deaths in Europe seem to be post viral complications such as bacterial infections and pheumonia which is when we will really need them. We need people to understand how the damn things work.
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You’re (take note) providing nothing but nonsense @stanton
Whomever it was who suggested the deniers and the overly dramatic folks are all daft has it right. Whether at government or individual level everything is personal decision based on risk assessment. I’m not hugely concerned despite the fact two people in my call centre just returned from a south Eastern Asia cruise. They’ve been quarantined for two weeks as a precaution but they’ve no symptoms and didn’t visit an affected area. Perspective much needed.
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When a bit of flu has led to people trapped on ships for weeks on end, quarantined megacities, people locked in hotels, a fortnight off school (Christ what we would have given for that back in the day), and....
has divided the world into 'deniers' and the 'overly dramatic' we've definitely reached peak daftness.
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| adithorp wrote: |
Do you have any evidence that these people only visited Milan and not one of the red zones near there? |
In fairness no, beyond the editorial on the web page noting the anomaly
You also have to assume that if it was an issue in Milan the authorities would have put in place sanctions, unless Milan is too big to be shut down?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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IMO. The big weakness in the UK's Self Isolation plan, is the Gig Economy - as many self employed people simply can't afford two weeks unpaid leave (especially after a holiday), so will take the risk of going back to work.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I rang 111 and have been told to self-isolate for 14 days and will be going to the local hospital for swabbing, probably tomorrow. Frustrating as I know it’s only a cold and I only rang up for a bit of reassurance!! Timing is pants as we have a family break away this weekend to scatter dad’s ashes, but I’ve just cancelled it. Poor mum (82) doesn’t need a cold/flu-/Coronavirus at this time.
I mentioned the words “French alps”, “Turin”, Italy” and “cough” and that was it!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Bodeswell wrote: |
When a bit of flu has led to people trapped on ships for weeks on end, quarantined megacities, people locked in hotels, a fortnight off school (Christ what we would have given for that back in the day), and....
has divided the world into 'deniers' and the 'overly dramatic' we've definitely reached peak daftness. |
It is not a bit of flu it is a novel virus that appears to have killed significant numbers of people exposed to it in China and there is no evidence that we have any better treatment for it here than in China.
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| pam w wrote: |
| It's a job to know which are the more irritating posters - the panickers or the deniers. |
Hear hear. I have mixed feelings, as usual. My concerns are not so much about the Aosta Valley, which is allegedly virus-free, but about Turin Airport and the flights. 
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You know it makes sense.
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It's probably going to be safer up a mountain with eyes covered by goggles, a Snowheads buff covering mouth and nose, hands covered with gloves, barely a square inch of exposed skin than anywhere else in the world. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| T Bar wrote: |
| Bodeswell wrote: |
When a bit of flu has led to people trapped on ships for weeks on end, quarantined megacities, people locked in hotels, a fortnight off school (Christ what we would have given for that back in the day), and....
has divided the world into 'deniers' and the 'overly dramatic' we've definitely reached peak daftness. |
It is not a bit of flu it is a novel virus that appears to have killed significant numbers of people exposed to it in China and there is no evidence that we have any better treatment for it here than in China. |
It's a bit of flu and flu kills. There is no treatment for any strain. There is no evidence that anyone with no prior condition or inherent weakness has been killed by this novel variant.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Bodeswell wrote: |
It's a bit of flu and flu kills. There is no treatment for any strain. There is no evidence that anyone with no prior condition or inherent weakness has been killed by this novel variant. |
The information from China published in the Lancet is that people with no prior illnesses are indeed dying of it.
The mortality suggested is far higher than that of seasonal flu and it is killing previously healthy people.
Unlike flu because it is a new virus it is unlikely that there is much immunity to it in the population so many more may become infected.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@T Bar, sure, ok.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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C19 is the world's most infectious disease in recent memory.
Common flu does not bring the army out onto the streets with machineguns and full bio-chem hazmat suits
An unprecedented 1 billion people worldwide locked down.
With emergency containment, ~80k have been infected and ~3k dead.
Without emergency containment -- like 1918 Spanish Flu or 1350 Black Death -- there would already be ~100 million infections and ~3 million dead worldwide in ~3 months.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Whitegold, can't be that bad, you don't seem too fussed.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
C19 is the world's most infectious disease in recent memory.
Common flu does not bring the army out onto the streets with machineguns and full bio-chem hazmat suits
An unprecedented 1 billion people worldwide locked down.
With emergency containment, ~80k have been infected and ~3k dead.
Without emergency containment -- like 1918 Spanish Flu or 1350 Black Death -- there would already be ~100 million infections and ~3 million dead worldwide in ~3 months. |
Emergency containment? Yes in China. But apart from few small towns in Italy seems to me little real containment. Italians have spread diseases to a dozen other countries in last week. Now there is real fear that what we saw in italy last week could be about to repeat in Germany. Outside China cases are still rising exponentially. This is big concern folks!
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Hi
Can anyone confirm if all Italian school ski trips have been cancelled by Italian authorities?
We fly to Verona for Passo Tonale this Saturday and will be slightly more reassured if we know there haven't been big groups of school kids from the surrounding areas visiting the resort this week.
I know it's the Italian carnivals holiday this week so normally loads will flock to the ski resorts so just wondering if the big organised school trips have gone ahead?
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This is a good page to keep an eye on if you are going to Passo - it’s their Facebook page which they have a latest communication message on and the replies to that post are also quite useful. You may see some posts on their or can ask
https://m.facebook.com/pontedilegnotonale.consorzio/
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| bambionskiis wrote: |
I rang 111 and have been told to self-isolate for 14 days and will be going to the local hospital for swabbing, probably tomorrow. Frustrating as I know it’s only a cold and I only rang up for a bit of reassurance!! Timing is pants as we have a family break away this weekend to scatter dad’s ashes, but I’ve just cancelled it. Poor mum (82) doesn’t need a cold/flu-/Coronavirus at this time.
I mentioned the words “French alps”, “Turin”, Italy” and “cough” and that was it!! |
I dont understand this.
You know its only a cold but called 111 for reassurance. What was the point of that? What did you expect?
You have been told to self isolate but are going to a hospital where, if you do have it, you could spread it to sick people. Thats not isolating. You arent supposed to go out at all
That makes the advice suspect. It also makes me wonder how testing takes place if people are suspected of being infected
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oh...
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FAQ
