 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GFS now suggesting temperatures could be 16C below average in 10 days time. Brrr.
Still looking like substantial snowfall in Austria midweek with more to follow next weekend.
Hintertux has now opened Kaserer I and II.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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French Alps?
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@Genista, no, high pressure is blocking any snow from reaching the western end of the Alps.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Doh! I wonder this trend will end...?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Genista, it’s not especially relevant for now unless you are planning pre season skiing on the glaciers.
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Haha - Nope 5th Jan but I wanna see that my choice of Les Arcs over Schladming was the right one.
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Well, if talking mid week (24th) to next week (31st) then I would say it’s too far out for a definitive answer.
That GFS chart for 28th would bring some snow to NW side, and looking at the GFS 00z ensembles there’s potential for 10-20cm.
ECM 00z not as good, the Op run consistently warmer / drier than its ensembles, so not seeing solid agreement for month end picture, ie will the ridge collapse into Europe or stay west.
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Although over 50cm of new snow is still forecast by Bergfex for Kitzsteinhorn on Wednesday (down from over 1m and dropping by the day), winds of up to 100 km/h are also forecasted which will probably blow what does fall away. 
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@DB, if you believe forecasts of 1m of snow over a week out...
As for high winds it will certainly move the snow around a lot, but it won’t blow it all away.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| davidof wrote: |
Another bad year for Europe's glaciers, the Glacier Blanc in the Ecrins over a meter in depth
and retreated over 150 meters. |
Interesting to see the summertime melt has soared +23% from an average of 211cm per year in the 2000s to 260cm in the 2010s.
Confirms the trend for ever hotter summers in France / Western Europe.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Wednesday at the Hintertux:
Snowforecast = 3cm
Bergfex = 30cm
Wepowder = 34cm
What does snowforecast assume in the models that accounts for the diff?
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Poster: A snowHead
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As my FaceBook reminded me this morning - I took this two years ago, when I was cycling up towards Col du Galibier.
This year no snow at all, only some dustings that have not lasted.
Today we're basking in 23 degrees at 1,400m this time next weekend sure will be interesting with it changing every 12hrs or so.
I have friends coming out for a long weekend, supposedly to see the Valley in its Autumn finest.
They spend Thursday in Turin where it will probably be high 20's and then I pick them up from Oulx on Friday, to bring them back here.
The walks I had planned and gastro stops might have to be amended.
Glad I put snow tyres on before I came out!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Interesting to see the summertime melt has soared +23% from an average of 211cm per year in the 2000s to 260cm in the 2010s.
Confirms the trend for ever hotter summers in France / Western Europe. |
The researchers noted the same thing. The good winter (this year) was overwhelmed by the summer heatwave.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not much change in models overnight, tho am still travelling so hard to read charts on the phone.
The midweek storm has drifted a long way east, but the northerly reload for next weekend looks good. Potential for the whole of the alps to get significant snow, although high pressure is building up into Eastern Europe again.
This leaves central France and Pyrenees under low pressure, sandwiched between highs in Atlantic and Eastern Europe.
Lots of detail to be ironed out still as the shorter range models come into range, but possible cut off low would be very good for western and southern alps. I don’t think France will get zero, nor will it get 300cm, a wild guess would be 30-40cm at 1500m out to month end, but keep an eye on Nozs GFS chart above as it updates every day.
@jelly thx for the ECM version, that’s not available to the public so great to see it occasionally. Predicting snowfall amounts beyond 24-48hrs is pretty random as we all know.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, All good... I wouldn't call it random, it's pretty good 5 days out for general, rather than mesoscale purposes.
I won't clog the pages up with a million EC snow charts, but now the max is 176cm, so a big drop in snow accum, but on the upside, snow levels have dropped. Those Swiss, French and Italian Peak Ranges are set to get quite a lot of snow, less for Austria but still a decent drop there.
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Looks like Zermatt, Switzerland, will be at the center of the puke for the next 1-2 weeks.
Should get somewhere in the range of 100-300cm uptop.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Looks like Zermatt, Switzerland, will be at the center of the puke for the next 1-2 weeks.
Should get somewhere in the range of 100-300cm uptop. |
Music to my ears!
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Bliss 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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There is however nothing in the reliable (frankly even in the unreliable) output to suggest anything remotely like 3m of snowfall anywhere in the Alps over the next week to two weeks.
Nor does Zermatt currently look like it will be at the centre of the coming snowfall at least on GFS.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
There is however nothing in the reliable (frankly even in the unreliable) output to suggest anything remotely like 3m of snowfall anywhere in the Alps over the next week to two weeks.
Nor does Zermatt currently look like it will be at the centre of the coming snowfall at least on GFS.
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What’s interesting to me is all the non-Alp areas that may see some snow such as north of London, Eifel mountains, Sudetenland, Zakopane, just north of Geneva/La Spezia, and 50cm in Cantabria/Asturias! Has winter arrived?
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Sudetenland about to get invaded... by snow.
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You know it makes sense.
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@südtirolistdeutsch, altitude is the element you are forgetting.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Those GFS snow charts take elevation into account for each days accumulation. Though the FL contours can be misleading because I think they only show the end of run level (as opposed to average).
Anyway of more concern to me is the slackness on UKMO for the weekend. At 120-144hrs it’s very conservative about cold and snow, so hopefully it ends up correcting itself in the next run or two with lots of egg on face.
GFS is the most progressive with the low and it’s position close to alps. UKMO low is a lot further SW over Spain.
Ultimately this low will impact the weather into early Nov as heights look to build into Scandinavia up thru Eastern Europe.
ICON thankfully is in line with GFS at 120 hours with the storm centered over SE France / northern Italy
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Poster: A snowHead
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This WRF out to Sunday morning.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Killington, Vermont, northeast US, opened on Fri 19th Oct, 2018.
Its earliest opening in years.
Kicks off the eastern US season for 2018 / 2019.
Video of day 1 here.
201.jpg)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yeah, but its not real snow!! 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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better than chillfactore though.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looks like a Retour Est is shaping up Sunday onwards, but still could all change.
And no doubt what the Lord giveth etc etc as we're still only in October, all be it at the end.
And this is quite interesting as to how temp inversions can be at their peak this time of year.
This I ran through Google translate, interesting between Northern and Southern Alps re fog which we just don't see, and I often wondered why.
There were many, but low temperature inversions this morning between valleys and summits.
The phenomenon of radiation current in our mass in the autumn approach but in winter too.
This temperature gradient in the air layer may approach or exceed 20° for a height of 1000 m in winter during high conditions conditions and on snowy soils.
The valleys of the Southern Alps are regularly subjected to these phenomena, including the valleys of the Alps of Haute-Provence (Ubaye, White Valley, verdon) or the diurnal amplitudes are often very important.
During cold nights, winter, temperatures are often lower in the valleys of the Southern Alps than in the Northern Alps.
The latter are regularly subjected to low-layer phenomena that ditch soil moisture (fog, cloud sea).
The valleys of of, devoluy and valgaudemar mark the climate limit of the north and Southern Alps. More humid and receiving more rainfall, they also suffer mist and cloud seas. Almost non-existent phenomena in the Southern Alps, hence greater radiation at ground level, causing a more marked drop in temperatures in our valleys at night. The valleys of queyras, in particular the high-Guil on the side of the village of ristolas, but also nevache in the relaxing, often observe at the heart of winter cold blows, minimum temperatures under 20 to-25° On those frigid nights.
In The Alps of Haute-Provence, the village of Brussels located only 1065 m above altitude is also often cited under the same conditions. Temperatures can go down to 20 /- 24° during these intense cold episodes.
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| davidof wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
Interesting to see the summertime melt has soared +23% from an average of 211cm per year in the 2000s to 260cm in the 2010s.
Confirms the trend for ever hotter summers in France / Western Europe. |
The researchers noted the same thing. The good winter (this year) was overwhelmed by the summer heatwave. |
Switzerland just reported similar findings for 2018.
Swiss glaciers melted -20% in the past decade.
Switzerland saw the least summer snowfall on record in 2018.
There has never been so little fresh snow in summer.
https://www.planetski.eu/news/10930
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| davidof wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
Interesting to see the summertime melt has soared +23% from an average of 211cm per year in the 2000s to 260cm in the 2010s.
Confirms the trend for ever hotter summers in France / Western Europe. |
The researchers noted the same thing. The good winter (this year) was overwhelmed by the summer heatwave. |
Switzerland just reported similar findings for 2018.
Swiss glaciers melted -20% in the past decade.
Switzerland saw the least summer snowfall on record in 2018.
There has never been so little fresh snow in summer.
https://www.planetski.eu/news/10930 |
Lucky most people ski in winter and Switzerland just had one of the best ones for years 😉
Some crazy forecasts (3m) for Zermatt area for the weekend ❄️ ❄️ ❄️
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| BobinCH wrote: |
Some crazy forecasts (3m) for Zermatt area for the weekend ❄️ ❄️ ❄️
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don't worry Bob, it is already ok up on the glacier at Zermatt
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