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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
from Steiermark avi forecast http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=lage

"in the night of Friday, a strong cold front reaches the Styria. Powerful snow storm and let the slab are tricky situation at the weekend ! Especially in the northern sectors lurks the slab danger, as the frost layer is covered extensively ." from http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=lage

and wetter.at forecast a reasonable snowfall but strong winds
http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Jetzt-wird-auch-der-Osten-winterlich/123907122

Salzburg Avi forecast calling for less snowfall over the border (to the west)
http://www.lawine.salzburg.at/lageberichte/lb_2013-12-05.html?lang=en_UK

So seems like some snow and wind to come in northern Austria, more further east, potential for slabs forming, but I guess as always hard to predict with any certainty.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
If it's anything like we are experiencing on north east England (and we haven't got the worst yet) you will need to hang on to more than your hats
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well there's a clear change in the weather here: cold, cloudy and a front blowing in.

You all need to calm down a bit. Winter is only just starting; snow will come.

Plus there's actually quite a lot of it already.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 5-12-13 12:27; edited 1 time in total
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clarky999 wrote:

You all need to calm down a bit. Winter is only just starting, snow will come.



That's the most ridiculous post I have read in a long time! Very Happy
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emwmarine, wink
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clarky999, sorry calm down?, this thread is for all who PANIC
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Lots of reports of all the snow melting.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Then freezing into boilerplate.
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What needs to happen in weather worlds to break the high pressure dominance?
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What needs to happen in weather worlds to break the high pressure dominance?
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Outlook from SLF.

"Weather forecast through Friday, 6.12.2013

In northern regions light snowfall is expected to set in from the north on Thursday night. During the day on Friday the snowfall will come to an end and in western regions skies will brighten up during the afternoon. South of the Main Alpine Ridge it will be generally sunny. The snowfall level will be at 500 to 700 m.

Fresh snow

- central and eastern sectors of northern flank of the Alps: 10 to 20 cm
- western sector of northern flank of the Alps, remaining Gotthard region, northern Grisons, Silvretta, Samnaun: 5 to 10 cm
- elsewhere only a few centimeters or it will remain dry

Temperature

Temperatures are expected to drop markedly. The midday temperatures at 2000 m will be between -10 °C in northern regions and -4 °C in southern regions.

Wind

Gusty winds will be blowing at strong to storm strength from westerly to northwesterly directions. The strongest winds are expected in high alpine regions along the Main Alpine Ridge.

Outlook through Sunday, 8.12.2013

Saturday

In western and southern regions it will be predominantly sunny. In eastern regions skies will still be overcast in the early morning, then turn increasingly sunny over the course of the day. The avalanche danger is expected to gradually recede.

Sunday

Above the high fogbanks it will be generally sunny in the Swiss Alps and turn somewhat milder. The avalanche danger will incrementally diminish."
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
What is for sure is that however much one panics it makes not a blind bit of difference to when it is going to snow. Most resorts have more snow than average at the mo. I will enjoy what's there and if there is none I will have a beer and enjoy the scenery.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Very expensive outing for a beer!!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The poor wigglies are so flat tonight they look like they've been ironed
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
red 27, yes, they are, aren't they? Meteo France is sitting resolutely on the fence as far as a seasonal forecast is concerned:

En ce moment, les conditions océaniques de surface de la bande tropicale sont proches de la normale, et cette situation évoluera peu au cours des prochains mois. Dans ce type de configuration, l'incertitude sur l'évolution de la circulation atmosphérique en Europe pour le prochain trimestre est très grande. On ne peut donc privilégier aucun scénario d'évolution pour l'Europe, et la France métropolitaine en particulier.

For those who don't read French, this translates as "it's anybody's guess". Could be worse. wink
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This evening's ECM sees the high pressure building over Scandinavia.



Cold air would start to press into the Alps from the east, whilst western Europe remained milder than average.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Any snowpack experts? If its not gonna snow for a few weeks, then given overall thin snowpack (even though better than average for time of year), is mild weather better than cold - in maintaining snowpack stability so it will be favourable in a few weeks when it does dump?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
peanuthead wrote:
Any snowpack experts? If its not gonna snow for a few weeks, then given overall thin snowpack (even though better than average for time of year), is mild weather better than cold - in maintaining snowpack stability so it will be favourable in a few weeks when it does dump?


Snow melts in mild weather so probably that gives an answer.


My guess,generally speaking above 2300M ish the snow will hold up on the pistes with help from snow cannons. Off piste will be scratchy everywhere. When it does snow everyone will be happy.

Skiing low down is always a lottery before new year.
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emwmarine, looking at the Chamonix forecast - coldish at night, mild during the day, I think anyone who's cannoned up properly and has been running them hard the last couple of weeks will be fine to run them overnight and anything (esp. not south facing) above 1,000m will be fine.
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Quote:

peanuthead
hors Piste
Posts: 668
Any snowpack experts? If its not gonna snow for a few weeks, then given overall thin snowpack (even though better than average for time of year), is mild weather better than cold - in maintaining snowpack stability so it will be favourable in a few weeks when it does dump?


It's good and bad news..... Thin snowpack + cold weather = depth hoar, which is a quite unpleasant layer to have low down in the snow pack and is quite persistant. Thin snowpack + warm weather = rapidly disappearing snowpack, which is good from an avalanche safety point of view (if there's no snow, it can't slide), until it snows again (which it will....) when everything has to start again from the beginning. hopefully the next lot of snow will come in after some warmer weather which will have had a chance to even out the snowpack, and everything will be smashing.
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Reading several resort threads there seems to be lots of doom and gloom about. Not out for 2 more weeks so I am not on the ground but the majority seems to be overreacting to the current mild conditions. This is one of the few threads where the majority seem to take a balanced view. I think many seem to have forgotten what conditions are normally like in early to mid-Dec.
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Quote:

I think many seem to have forgotten what conditions are normally like in early to mid-Dec.

cover is rather good for early December. Trouble is, the GFS runs have been showing pretty well zero precipitation for the foreseeable future and some very mild temperatures which might hamper snow making - FLs over 3000m. But people have indeed been spoilt by the phenomenal cover last year, and write silly things like "we were there in mid-December last year and had thigh deep powder; you'll be fine". wink
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The snow cover is generally poor to average. There is just enough for most places to open I Think.

There will be lots and lots of surface hoar in shady aspects from the cold and clear nights. Even mid last week when I was up a sun-less valley the surface hoars flakes where getting to a reasonable size. This is not a good surface for fresh snow to fall on as it as has no strength. I.E perfect for forming a weak layer in the snow pack.

Also over the past few weeks there has been some very strong winds which can transport and deposit snow. Again not good for forming a base.

And on top of this the low depth of snow pack means there is a bigger temperature difference within a much smaller area. Which like Grum P said will cause depth hoar which would probably stay there all season long. A deeper snow pack such as those from the last two winters can be the safest as the layers consolidate much better. (Obviously a deeper snowpack means if it does slide it could be huge).

This blocking high pressure needs to be pushed away to bring any new snow. But will it? Who knows? For now we must enjoy the sunshine and search hard for those sheltered north faces without too much hoar.

**any experts please correct my errors**
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Looks like it's snowing today on the webcams and the snow cover looks great to my untrained eyes...
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queen bodecia wrote:
Looks like it's snowing today on the webcams and the snow cover looks great to my untrained eyes...


All the web cams I can see seem to have snow. So thats two of us.
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Webcams disabled in the Serre Che app. Does this mean there is no snow??
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
snowing http://www.hauser-kaibling.at/de/wetter-schnee/webcams/

No foehn wind forecast, what's the panic about? I was out skiing earlier this week, piste in great shape, snow machines running, snowing today.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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queen bodecia, where's that? Our webcams in Les Saisies are all white but the pretty pictures are a bit deceptive; depths are low (45 cms at 2000m - and dropping steadily since the earlier snows, obviously) and it's noticeable that the depth of snow on roofs has dropped a lot too. It's OK for the time of year, though, and a range of lifts will be open tomorrow, just for the weekend. But conditions will deteriorate - without more snow any runs without cannons will be very sketchy by Christmas, even though they are on pasture, not needing much depth of snow to be skiable. Forecasts have been consistently dry (except for some insignificant flocons today) for some days now. This week look pretty certain to be warm (FL over 3000m in our area, lower (2200m - 2800m) further east in Austria. After that, obviously, everything could change. Fingers crossed.

I occasionally read the Méteo thread on the French forum, skipass. People getting jumpy over there, too; just read this:

Moi je dis que tout ça c'est la faute aux gens qui ont dit début novembre que "la saison allait être bonne vu comme ça part" Razz C'est pour les punir et nous au passage !

ie current conditions are the fault of those who got excited abut the snow at the beginning of November and said it was going to be a good season. wink

One of the Skipass weather gurus has said first snow over 10cms will be in first ten days of January. But he's sometimes wrong.... wink
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You know it makes sense.
pam w wrote:


One of the Skipass weather gurus has said first snow over 10cms will be in first ten days of January. But he's sometimes wrong.... wink


Yes, may only be the last ten days of January Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
waynos, It's France where the problems lie - no snow today, above freezing all week next week, and at the moment no hint of snow on the horizon.

I'm off there next weekend so will issue a full report - but it looks like conditions will be sub-optimal which to be honest will make an interesting change as I can't remember the last time I had anything but decent snow and everything open.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Same here red 27 - I'll just take the "rock skis" instead of my shiney ones..... rolling eyes
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nemesys, rentals for me Toofy Grin
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
its ok in cham, forget off piste really, but there's still enough snow to have fun on Smile
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red 27, where in France are you going to?
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chrisb, Les Menuires.

Looks very nice on the webcams at the moment but I'm anticipating ribbons of threadbare artificial cutting through the alpine pastures by the time I strap on the planks on the 15th.

But that's fine, dodgy conditions can be a good antidote to the laziness that good snow can lead to.
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Quote:

there's still enough snow to have fun on

yes there is and lots of places are opening for this weekend (some of the small ones just for the weekend, because of lack of punters, not lack of snow). Right now the weather is cold - in France as well as Austria - but getting very warm next week, and not just in France. FL up as high as 2900m in St Anton, for example, with no overnight freeze even at 2000m, according to snow-forecast (which IME is usually right about temperature and relies on GFS which has been consistent for several days).
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OliC wrote:
The snow cover is generally poor to average.
I'm not sure what you are comparing to, but for an opinion from Tignes & Val d'Isere where I've been this week the piste conditions are brilliant. Firm, grippy snow and the majority of runs open. Off piste looks a bit thin, but it is the first week of December so that's hardly a surprise.
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red 27 wrote:
chrisb, Les Menuires.

Looks very nice on the webcams at the moment but I'm anticipating ribbons of threadbare artificial cutting through the alpine pastures by the time I strap on the planks on the 15th.

But that's fine, dodgy conditions can be a good antidote to the laziness that good snow can lead to.


Probably see you as you end up heading up to VT.
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It's going to be fine... where would you rather be -- in the mountains with (some) snow, or back home ? Puzzled
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emwmarine Yes indeed - that's my plan really.

I've skied the Meribel area quite a bit in the past so happy to stay more in Belleville valley. I'm thinking that the W facing staff above Les M will have taken a pasting so the N facing stuff in VT at the head of the valley should be better.

But perhaps we've drifted OT... Embarassed
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