 brian
brian
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Axsman, no, you need to go and google for statistical independence. The odds on any unique 50 digit binary sequence coming up are incredibly small (1125899906842624/1 against in fact). You only balk at TTTTTx50 because it's obviously memorable, the chances of getting THHHTHTHTTTTHT... or any other sequence are exactly the same.
Similarly, the odds of 1 2 3 4 5 6 being the lottery numbers are as likely as any other sequence but I bet nobody picks it. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Axsman, given that the coin is not weighted it doesn't matter what the preceding sequence was, there is no such thing as "reasonably even distribution of heads and tails", the next flip will always be 50|50. It's the same thing that suckers people into playing roulette when they see that that last 10 rolls have come up red and they bet on black. The casino's display the past 10 rolls above the table knowing this full well.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| brian wrote: |
| Similarly, the odds of 1 2 3 4 5 6 being the lottery numbers are as likely as any other sequence but I bet nobody picks it. |
Actually it's well known that they do. So many in fact that it really wouldn't be worth winning. Anyway... http://saliu.com/bbs/messages/961.html - read that little lot and you'll feel like going out without the helmet.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Come on guys, Axsman said that a 50 tail sequence could be a hint that the coin is weighted hence the flips are not statistically independent...
brian, Dr John, of course the chances of TTTTT x50 are the same as those of any other SINGLE sequence, but the chances of getting TTTT x50 are much lower than the chances of getting 25-25 T and H as the number of potential sequence arrangements is so high. For the same reason, the chance of getting 26 Ts and 24 Hs is much higher than the chance of getting 49 Ts and 1 H. So, as long as there is a non-zero probability to the coin being weighted, or to the flipping process introducing bias, the preceding sequence being seriously uneven may be an indication of skewed probability for the next toss.
Which of course has nothing to do with helmets. If the same helmet wearer hits his helmet in the same place several times, the chance is that the events are statistically related.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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hmm actually on reflection I agree only with Axsman's first para...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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horizon,
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If the same helmet wearer hits his helmet in the same place several times, the chance is that the events are statistically related.
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Or that the first hit knocked out the learning and recall centre.
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You'd have to be a serious tosser to do that coin thing.
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horizon, or put another way; if you're going to flip a coin 50+ times, wear a frickin helmet because you're very likely to hit yourself on the head with at least one of the flips.
For coin-flip cranial protection I recommend Giro helmets.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Dr John wrote: |
horizon, or put another way; if you're going to flip a coin 50+ times, wear a frickin helmet because you're very likely to hit yourself on the head with at least one of the flips.
For coin-flip cranial protection I recommend Giro helmets. |
 but I disagree, the Giro vents are too big - flip a small-but-heavy £1 coin and there's a good chance it will still hit you on the head...
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brian, Dr John, You guys are missing my point. As horizon, picked up, I was suggesting that since the chances of an evenly weighted coin producing 50 straight tails are low (0.5 to the 50th in fact) then if that sequence were observed it would strongly imply that the coin was weighted so the next flip was more than 50% likely to also be a tail.
I do understand that one flip is indpendant of any other. Over a large enough sample, an evenly weighted coin will tend to produce similar numbers of heads and tails.
Gamblers used to record results on roulette wheels in order to detect 'bias' that might give them a slight advantage, and the reason Camelot have several lottery machines is to further reduce any bias that might occur from using only one.
My point was simply that in the example quoted the coin was likely to be biased. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Axsman, I'm going to flip a coin now, heads I go to the pub at 17.20, tails I go to the pub at 17.21. If it land on it's edge I'll fecking scream.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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brian, poor lad. I hope he'll make a rapid recovery. It must have been very painful. 
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Dr John, I didn't flip a coin. I just went to the pub. 
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You know it makes sense.
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Glad I have a G10 for skiing. Also a fan of Giro's when cycling, but have had one incedent caused by a helmet
Was cycling along towpath when large sharp pain in top of head. rapid stop nearly coming off. Pain very sharp. Rip off helmet to find a bee had been swept into vent and was a little miffed so decided to take vengance on my scalp. You try finding and extracting a bee sting from your scalp in the middle of nowhere!!! (Glad my swiss army knife has tweezers)
So now my cycle helmets are always modified to have bee/wasp proof mesh across the vents (like te G10)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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brian, glad you're all right. That pic is nasty.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| madmole wrote: |
(Glad my swiss army knife has tweezers)
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So how did you see the bee-sting to tweeze it with the tweezers?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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So how did you see the bee-sting to tweeze it with the tweezers?
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maybe he's bald?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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and had a mirror
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