Climate change in the Alpine Areas of Europe discussion thread

A snowHead

No one will read this, but anyways...

https://clintel.org/world-climate-declaration/

Enjoy being useful idiots.

Lagarde said today: "It will cost no less than 620 billion per year to actually move the green transition further into the hope of a clean energy environment." Someone's got to pay the party, and it's each one of us.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

And a freebie, just for the fun of it:

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[quote="JayRo"]We’ve been recording global temperatures fairly systematically (as I understand it; I’m not a natural scientist) since about 1880/quote]
So less than 150 years.
How long have homo sapiens been walking upright for?
you are using 0.07% worth of historic data. Hardly scientific.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

The systemic real time on the ground climate measurements isn't the only data we have though.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/11/211104140816.htm

After all it is free

Such a lot of ignorance surrounding history and data. We have been recording data since the 1800s, but we have data going back way beyond the short history of homosapiens. We can understand what has been happening with the earth's climate using much more than the real time records humans have gathered in the very short space of time that we've been gathering records (which ironically corresponds rather closely with the beginning of our outsized effects upon the earth's systems - effects which are indisputable). We know, using these records, records recorded in and upon the planet itself, that the speed of change the earth's systems are currently undergoing are at a pace and scale the planet has rarely undergone at any point in its very long history. No homosapien has ever experienced such a rapid shift in earth systems as the ones we are currently witnessing. The speed and scale of it is unprecedented. And still people say things like 'hardly scientific' ...

@pavlf, that

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@pavlf, +1, absolutely right.

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You know it makes sense.

My first time in the Alps was 1999, the snowfall was astonishing (this was the time of the chalet avalanche tragedies in Chamonix). I recall chatting to the owner of the business where we stayed and asking him why he didn't buy a chalet rather than rent his premises, his answer was he wasn't sure there'd be a viable season in 20 years due to warming.

Obviously that nightmare hasn't come true, but certainly in my experience snow conditions have become less certain in the last decade or so. Previously it seemed to be a poor snow season was an exception; now it feels like a good snow season is the exception. Obviously there's data showing reduced snowfall over recent decades, the shortening of the season, etc.

One of the reasons I spent my first 15 years or so on a snowboard, but about a decade ago switched to skis as I got a little tired of spending much of my holiday on the board on hard compacted pistes.

Something else that brings it to life for me is the shrinking of the glaciers around Mont Blanc, and so at the end of the Vallee Blanche the number of steps you need to take to get back up to the train. In 1991 just 3 steps, in 2000 it was 118 steps, 2010 it was 320 steps, 2021 around 400 steps.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

I'm not that old, and I remember skiing 3V when you'd find a foot or more of snow in Moutiers. Haven't seen that happen for a long old time.

I'm personally of the opinion that the damage is done and it's going to be irreversible for several generations, as skiers/boarders we need to kiss goodbye to the Alps and start investigating Northern Europe, especially as the Alps seem to be getting more and more expensive.

A snowHead

What if we're right about climate change? We avoid a climate catastrophe, and make the planet a better place.

What if we're wrong about climate change? We've made the planet a better place.

It's a win-win. We are custodians of this planet, and we should be trying to leave it in a better place than what we found it.

A snowHead

Some things worth adding to the debate, there are a number of additional factors that we can't predict but can have a huge effect on cooling.

- Variations in solar activity: The Sun's output of energy varies over time, and periods of low solar activity can lead to global cooling. Next solar minimum is due in 2030 with the last one being 2019 (~every 11 years)
- Changes in volcanic activity: Large volcanic eruptions can temporarily block out sunlight and cool the Earth's climate. The last eruption to have a significant impact on Earth's climate was the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, cooling the Earth by about 0.5 degrees Celsius for a few years.
- Long-term changes in ocean circulation: Changes in ocean currents can affect the distribution of heat around the globe, leading to regional cooling. We've seen growing evidence that the Gulf Stream could be weakening and in Europe, temperatures could drop by several degrees Celsius, leading to more frequent and severe winters.

Some correlations can be made from the past relating to the Alps in the years where there was below-avg temps and above-avg snowfall:

- 1988/89: The eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska in 1989 may have contributed to the below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall in the Alps that year.
- 1999/2000: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may have slowed down in the late 1990s, which could have contributed to the below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall in the Alps that year.
- 2011/12: The solar minimum that occurred in 2010 may have contributed to the below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall in the Alps that year.

There are natural events that can disrupt our current weather patterns and trends, throwing us back to cooler climates. The question for me is whether Human-caused climate change will outweigh any cooling events in the future and to what extent?

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

I’ve changed the thread heading now to a something more general , feel free to discuss climate change or not ?Effects on your ski holidays , effects local environment or property whatever you want . The main reason for this thread was that the Weather Outlook thread was getting bogged down with climate change chat rather than the actual outlook .

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@nunex, seriously. Nobody is saying that.

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Maybe not here, but that’s the whole narrative of the climate change agenda. I’m all for reducing pollution, no one sane can disagree on that. But focusing the debate on the ridiculously low impact that human beings have on astrophysical and geological levels seems a little bit odd to me.

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The ridiculously low impact human beings have on an astrophysical and geological level????? OK, in cosmic terms our impact is eff all. Granted. In geological terms geologists have coined the term anthropocene to define the new geological era into which human activity has ushered us. Human beings are having an enormous impact on the planet on every level - including geological (chicken bones for one thing, all those chickens everyone eats are creating a vast tonnage of bones). Everything human beings are doing now is completely unprecedented in the history of life on earth. We are are currently undergoing a mass extinction caused entirely by human beings. If we continue as we are, it's not just that it's going to get warmer and you can have nice summer holidays, every system on earth is going to go into collapse. If we don't do something most mammalian life will not be able to survive. Quite what form of life will survive is anyone's guess. In cosmic terms this isn't particularly significant, life will continue in some form on earth, and eventually the planet will disappear inside the red dwarf our sun will eventually become. But in the meantime, I have children and they will have children and they in turn will hopefully have children. I don't want them to live in hell. I want the world to be the same relatively kind environment it mostly is today. Imagine the societies we are headed for when all the people in equatorial lands begin to move north (oh look, they already have!). Imagine the conflicts that will arise. Imagine the governments that will form. Imagine the wars this will cause.

The ridiculously low impact? Sorry, but that's about the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on here

After all it is free

I can live with you opinion Smile

There's quite a big difference between an opinion and a fact. It is a fact that under most measurements of consequence that human beings have, our impact in cosmic terms is miniscule. That human societies are responsible for the current mass extinction is not an opinion. It is a fact. The chicken situation is not an opinion, it is a fact. The wild animals on earth are outweighed by animals farmed by humans by around ten to one. These aren't my opinions that I've formed from walking around having a think for myself and watching tiktok.

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The other issue is in relation to your question 'should we just redefine society as we know it'? Well, one thing's for sure, if we don't do it ourselves the planet will be doing it for us. Melting glaciers in the Alps doesn't just mess up summer skiing and make it harder to go climbing, they mean that the water that usually melts off to irrigate the lowlands where all the crops are grown is much reduced. So there's a double whammy, as it gets hotter there will be less water for irrigation. Unfortunately many of the places where glaciers feed their irrigation systems are the places where a lot of food is grown. People in the present in the west have no idea what food insecurity is. Most of us have never gone hungry for a day in our lives. Be in no doubt that a warming climate will mean many of us, and perhaps some of us reading this (and me writing it), will experience food insecurity. Food insecurity begats conflict. Society will either change or be changed. We either take control of our destiny of have things happen to us.

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I'll just leave this link here and step aside, I believe everyone has already made their "religious" decisions based on the "authorized experts". That's been a trend lately, and with very harsh effects on society (and hearth failures).

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been

Even with the anti-cancel culture disclaimer they had to include, I think it's worth the reading, specially the conclusion:

"Earth’s hottest periods—the Hadean, the late Neoproterozoic, the Cretaceous Hot Greenhouse, the PETM—occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen.

Modern human civilization, with its permanent agriculture and settlements, has developed over just the past 10,000 years or so. The period has generally been one of low temperatures and relative global (if not regional) climate stability. Compared to most of Earth’s history, today is unusually cold; we now live in what geologists call an interglacial—a period between glaciations of an ice age. But as greenhouse-gas emissions warm Earth’s climate, it's possible our planet has seen its last glaciation for a long time."

Cheers and nice slopes to everyone!

You know it makes sense.

I don't think you quite understand, Nunex, with all due respect. No one is saying the earth wasn't once hotter than it is now, or that it was never this warm until humans came along. The massive error people always make is to say 'climate change, what of it, the climate has always changed'! As if that's the story. Of course the climate has always changed and it was definitely once an awful lot hotter than it is now. Before humans existed. Before humans could have existed. Before any life could've existed in fact, because it was too hot. The point is that now the climate is changing at a faster rate than ever seen before in the past - all the past we can understand, not just the last 500 years. As far as I'm aware the only time it's changed this quickly in the past is when an asteroid struck us. If it carries on changing at this speed we won't survive. The holocene has indeed been one of the most stable climactic periods we know of. However, human civilisation was fairly small and fairly stable until around 500 years ago. No facts will demonstrate that the impact of human civilisation 10,000 years ago is comparable to the impact of human civilisation over the last 500. The greatest human impact began happening in the 19th century and accelerated in the 20th. Look at some numbers. Everything exploded in the 20th c. Population, concrete, cars, fossil fuel extraction, mining in all its forms, agriculture, consumption on almost all metrics, it's all gone through the roof. It's no coincidence that this acceleration began happening around the time everyone started going skiing either. The climate is warming at an unprecedented rate because of human activity.

This isn't a religious belief. What a weird way to categorise these facts. Religion is often characterised by an absence of fact. It is based upon belief. Facts are not the same as beliefs. You can believe something or you can not believe it. If you don't believe in the fact of gravity you can jump off the chairlift, your belief will have no effect. I can choose not to believe in god and nothing can be shown to happen. You might believe they did but I don't need to believe you broke both your legs because you jumped off the chairlift, you will have broken them whatever anyone believed would happen.

The use of scare quotes around authorised experts is quite an odd tactic too, though not at all unusual - you find yourself in the prestigious company of goodly people like Michael Gove and Donald Trump there.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

OK, Greta.

Let's see how the Agenda 2030 goes.

Stay frosty!

A snowHead

Ski3: Does all your food come from the UK? Are you really suggesting global food resources have no impact upon your dinner in Chipping Norton?

A good part of India's fertile land is irrigated by the Himalayas. A good part of Northern Italy is irrigated by the Alps. A good part of France and Germany the same. Africa is currently famous for providing vast food supplies for its rapidly expanding population. Have you read about the droughts in Africa?

I'm not making this up, you can go and find out yourself about the massive problems glacial melt are going to bring to food supplies. In fact better still, just wait around and see for yourself. Not the gotcha you hoped for

A snowHead

@pavlf, well if your "fact" gathering is as good as it is here with presumably an attempt at facetious humour (it states my location as London very clearly on this site) how can you be in any way relied upon delivering your limited and polarized view of facts for general site consumption ?

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Chipping Norton was a joke based upon not much other than what appeared to be a privileged provincial world view. However, seeing as you are, as clearly stated for anyone who takes an interest in such things, from London I was clearly mistaken. You are at the least metropolitan and likely highly cosmopolitan.

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Here's a biblical text from a church of facts, a university:

https://www.wur.nl/en/newsarticle/melting-glaciers-are-going-to-affect-food-security.htm

Here's another from some farmer publication:

https://www.globalagriculture.org/whats-new/news/en/33810.html

Here's one from a think tank (could be dodgy, check them out)

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/no-water-no-food-glacier-loss-threats-us-and-chinese-agriculture

They all explain the threat posed by the melting of glaciers to global food security. This doesn't represent a polarized world view (I assume you actually meant polarizing - as in it's one side of an extreme position - if it was a polarized world view it would contain two perspectives at once and that, i'm sure isn't what you meant). It isn't really a view. It's something that's happening. Like the sunrise.

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Many scholars have argued that the roots of the Syrian conflict, which kicked off a good deal of the unrest currently causing issues in Europe, Brexit not the least of them, are found in hunger. And the roots of that hunger are found in climate change. The list is much longer than this. When populations become hungry things happen

https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/links-between-conflict-and-hunger-syria-conflict-hunger-and-aid-access-april-2023

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I leave it to the dear viewers to reach their own conclusions as to the meaning of polarized, the extent of the evidence I've offered in relation to climate, food supply, conflict and glacial retreat and to decide for themselves whether or not I'm actually running a campaign.

After all it is free

Al Gore and John Kerry are already proud, you may return to your normal activity.

It's like climate change bingo!

House!

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My 2c - I was born in Sofia, Bulgaria. I learned to ski at the age of 4. I could see Mt Vitosha from my bedroom window - all 2290 metres of it. In the old days we were regularly able to ski from the very top back to Sofia - a good 1500m of vertical. These days, speaking to friends who still live in Sofia, this would happen maybe once or twice a year. In addition - a Meteo station was set up at the very top of Vitosha in 1935. The archive cannot be argued with - while the average amount of precipitation has only decreased by about 15% since data collection began almost a 100yrs ago, the amount which fell as snow has dropped by 55%…

So it’s not just confined to the Alps, but also to Continental Europe proper…

Help!!

Climate change in the Alpine Areas of Europe discussion thread

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