 Poster: A snowHead
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First up the verification of the previous one week forecast for tomorrow, all major features correctly placed, probably over 90% accurate.
yep it can cool down very quickly. Am not ruling out snow to mid-altitude by month end. Looking at ensembles it's very likely to cool down significantly over NW europe next week. Model output suggests a slow moving pattern, so low pressure anchored near UK, struggling to progress east.....remember the models nearly always underestimate the time it takes to breakdown a strong euro/scandi high.
Worth pointing out the forecast for -AO (arctic oscilation, that measures pressure over arctic circle). So -ve means anomalous high pressure, from labrador sea, north russia, scandi over to north america / canada. Normally you'd get cold outbreaks at mid lattitudes and the signal for high lattitude blocking looks to remain thru much of september, and hopefully will be a feature in winter.
Looking 10 days out, there isn't agreement on how far east the NW cold might travel. As mentioned, the block is hard to budge / model, and the atlantic is alive with multiple tropical depressions / ex hurriances, so reliability is low.
Nevertheless....here are the 3 main models for tues 19th
ECM fairly benign, typical sep, average temps, still hinting at a weak low east atlantic / iberia
GEM looking good....east atlantic high, NW flow into alps. But likely too progressive, both in terms of low anomaly depth and eastward progress
GFS not bad, closer to GEM than ECM really.....avg temps for most, but a little warm still in med and to the east
Will see over the next few days which side will win out.....middle ground always favoured in these scenarios, so the low will probably get stuck near UK
Speaking of glaciers, Alpe d'Huez was pretty soft in July for the Megavalanche race, but reports are there was more snow this year than 2022
https://www.pinkbike.com/news/megavalanche-2023-race-report.html
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@afterski, some good educational reading there.....afaik the PV is the main reason why winter forecasts are more reliable than summer forecasts. Reliable being a relatively loose term of course. The theory is the strength of the PV, and how connected it is top to bottom, is a significant input to NH winter modelling while summer doesn't have an equivalent driver, and more tropical noise.
Still not seeing full consensus on the final pattern for the 19th, but in general low pressure just NW of UK, avg temps into france, but likely still warm to the south and east.
Might be a little snow to 3000m over the next week, nothing special.
From the EC42day model, week 18-25th
and week 25th - 2nd oct shows the low pulling back west.....no south-eastward progress means no hope of Sep snow....likely mild and dry on that chart, but 2-3 weeks away....so time for change
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Well if ever there was an example of how bad the models are at precipitation this time of year, today is it....all the usual sources had zero to 5mm around Geneva, but it has been biblical for hours now, must be 50-60mm already, local flooding, still coming down hard, imagine that for an upgrade in winter. The instability of a surface low hitting the heat dome means lightning, hail and monsoon like driving conditions....dropped my last kid off to start uni in EPFL, so no more kids at home means more time for weather, talking bolix on the internet and hopefully a lot of early season ski touring.
Here are the same 3 models for 19th timeframe....ECM, GEM. GFS
Just over 5 days out and they still haven't got a grip on isobars, centre of the low, scandi block etc.....quite unusual, but not that far on a macro scale from what the middle ground was indicating 5 days ago (above). I think GFS has been the slowest to adjust, while ECM/GEM slightly more accurate, but the average of 100+ ensembles still underestimated the stubbornness of the scandi high (with GFS still lagging).
Before that happens, there will be another spike in temps on the 17-18th courtesy of a low sliding towards portugal.
As for after the 19th.....well it's anyone's guess given the atlantic chaos....ex hurriance trying to hitch a ride on the jet stream.....latest ECM Op would have a brief northerly at day 10
But really no point looking too far, 1 in a 100 chance for a day 10 Op run given the current entropy (to use a forecasting word-bingo classic)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Autumn is coming to NW europe
The 19th is locked in....ECM below, but comparing it to the charts at top of page (at 10 days out), GEM has to take credit for being the most accurate....scandi underestimation aside, it correctly called -20 low anomaly over UK, east atlantic ridge, NW flow, no iberian isobar link, and the high pressure to the south / east.
In the arctic, snow cover already expanding into Siberia and northern Canada, while ice extent recorded it's first gain of the season, after a bad but not record breaking melt season.....close to recent averages.
Next week is going to be chilly and stormy up north. Claims that last wednesday saw a new record date low (13th sep) for Kinbrace in Scotland at -3.5c, while the freeze level could hit 1200m at times there next week.
2am 19th again
And in the unlikely to verify camp, 5 days later....you can see the cold trying to make inroads....GFS 00z Op (below) and control run are way below the ensemble mean though, so low confidence.
EC42 for last week of Sep has the elongated atlantic trough edging closer to UK but still showing high pressure over much of europe, so nothing exciting for the alps....mild SW'ly
However, before we get to the 25th....there is a window of N/NE potential around 22-24th.
It's not showing up on the more reliable mean anomaly charts just yet, but all 7 model Op runs are toying with the idea of drawing down some colder air
      
While none of them are digging far enough SE to really impact the alps....there is a small chance of snow to 2500 or lower as things stand.
GFS 06z ensemble chart decipher-aid for anyone unsure, and I'll say this only once  .... others may add further clarity / corrections.
Black line is the latest GFS Op run, meaning the main 'operational' model run....once all the latest input data is loaded, the Op is run with the highest level of grid points, calculations etc
Blue is the control run, I believe this is the previous version of the Op (which gets updated every year), and is run at the second highest resolution.
All of the other spaghetti strings are lower resolution ensemble runs (30 of them on GFS), where the starting data / parameters are adjusted slightly and you get another iteration of the Op.
Red is the average of all 32 outputs.
Top section in this example is showing the freeze level projections over the next 2 weeks (haute savoie), with precipitation in the lower part.
All 33 FL projections are tight until about day 4, (snow at 3000m 19th), then they start to diverge a little bit more days 5-8, before eventually admitting individually they haven't got a clue.
But taken as whole, it's useful to look at how wide the ensemble spread is.....in this case it's very wide, at over 2000m difference between top and bottom guess beyond a week away.
In general the less spread there is the more the mean (red line) becomes useful, especially if there's a small cluster of outliers showing one thing and the majority of ensembles (and mean) are doing something different. In this example there are currently slightly more members projected to be above the mean than below it in week 2.....so that's not ideal, but will all change every 6 hours.
Also look for the Op and Control lines to see if they are picking up a signal that the lower res ensembles are blurring out.
Here the Op (black) and Control (blue) are cold outliers vs the pack....both suggest a FL close to 2000m somewhere around the 25th.
Too far away in the current set up to be taken seriously, but it's not the first run to be sensing below avg temps.
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@polo - great to have you and your very informative posts back mate
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Well I try to give people the tools, so there is no need for panic if a regular poster gets fed up / finds something better to do, as I'm likely to do again at some point. For me peak posting motivation is in the build up to winter proper.....getting the base down is always the exciting bit, especially at low altitude....and while last years snow to rain roller coaster still had a few great days early on, hopefully it was just a blip and not the beginning of a 'new normal'. Have enough of that outside of the sanctuary of skiing 
Here's the latest GFS 06z ensemble run for comparison to above. This is just the truncated (one week) version that comes out early.
Most of the snow (NW alps) is expected to fall at a FL of 3400-3300 on monday, only dropping to 3100 at the very end of the precipitation. As usual deduct about 200m for the expected snowline.
22-23rd you can see how well the Op and Control did in picking up the colder air ahead of the lower res ensembles (several models over several days, not always exact same dates). Now seeing convergence around 2800 to 2500 FL at peak precip, tailing off to 2200m. Bear in mind this is only the ensemble output of one model, haven't checked the others....but from experience we know that none of them will be consistently precise anyway.
850hpa temps (roughly 1500m) are 20c today...hopefully the last of that until next spring. And while the last week of the month is expected to be mild again, I'd be surprised if it gets much above 13-15c.
Impressive mid range forecast from the EC42day model that has been consistently showing below pattern (or close) since Sep 9th.....3 weeks ahead at the mid point. Of course there is still time for a change into month end, but it's about as certain as you can get at that range, despite the shenanigans out in the atlantic. In general high pressure over europe is easier to forecast than low pressure as it's a more stable feature and the default 90% of the time, but the pattern itself (atlantic low - euro high) has looked accurate from a long way out. No doubt once we get into the snowy months this mid range model will revert back to being one notch above useless.
Model accuracy / verification is usually tracked in just the 0-10 day range.
EC42 Charts are here
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202309160000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202310020000
Sep 25 to Oct 2
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Thank you again @polo for the informative posts, I have to admit a lot of it goes over my head but I feel more and more is making sense 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The first roundup for winter from Brian Gaze at “The Weather Outlook “ I really rate him , looks at the current long term models etc , ok it’s for GB but you can read across for Western Europe ,
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/6777/winter-2023-24
Above average / milder and wetter than normal seems to be the theme so far .
My personal feeling as far my skiing is concerned I never like an early cold Snap , much more chance of a dodgy base up high . Perfect scenario is that we start getting cold and wet deterioration from start of November .
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@Kevster755, Yeah I get that the vast majority of people just want to know if it’s going to snow, where is best etc
And 90% of the time the free weather apps (which tend to use just the GFS model) will give enough of a clue. Bergfex and YR.NO are 2 sites that use the slightly better EC model.
Then you have the likes of wepowder.com which goes into more detail. So plenty of easy access weather info these days.
My obsession with computer model output is possibly bordering on unhealthy and likely OTT for many, I mean who cares if there is a day or two of snow at 2500m in September. Might get some nice pics of snow capped peaks for a while.
Plenty of good weather still ahead for enjoying the outdoors thankfully. But is it wrong to be excited about lighting the fire and slipping into a pair of thermals?
Not much to add for the rest of this month, get through another warm and dry spell (alps) next week and hopefully October is overdue a decent snowfall, can’t remember the last time that happened?
@Rob Mackley, Yep I read that and it’s a good summary. However a lot of these ‘above average temp’ prospects depend on the baseline, often a few decades back. With the warming trend almost every month is above average unfortunately, but doesn’t rule out good snowy spells of course. And the summer long range forecast above again highlights how difficult it is to get it right beyond a few weeks. Don’t think anyone called July-August to be so poor this year (uk).
But yeah that’s half the fun, looking at the data to predict the future.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Looks like a strong El Nino winter, peaking in Jan-Mar 2024.
El Nino normally means above-average snowfall (5-20%) in North America and Western Europe.
That's yer best hope.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Maybe....
Average El Nino pressure pattern shows high pressure too close to Ire, blocking off a lot of atlantic flow towards alps, especially the western end.
But the historic analogs suggest a lot depends on the strength and position of El Nino, ie weak / moderate / strong, and whether it's east based or central (known as modoki El Nino).
From what I've read snowier euro winters happen when El Nino is moderate (+1 to +1.5c), and central is better than east. But there really aren't enough data points to make a statistically strong case either way.
Latest CFSv2 model shows expected El Nino peak has weakened from +2.5c anomaly (ie looking super strong a few months back) to just over +1.5c on the latest forecast, so seems to be heading for a moderate or marginally strong ENSO event.
Same model predicts a sharp drop in temps in regions 1+2 (east pacific), while increasing centrally (regions 3+4), so again, moving in the right direction if history is any guide.
Long strong short, despite the generalisation @Whitegold might have the right conclusion. And that's all that matters, blah blah some data = more snow.
I've had a quick look at Octobers and wondered why they are so poor for snow. Sep probably benefits from all the hurricane activity firing up the jet stream, while the polar vortex is still in slumber mode. Oct then sees a more settled atlantic while PV is forming to the north (keeping the cold away). It's not until november that we might get the first disturbances or wobbles in the PV and jet stream, while the atlantic temp gradient becomes more active again (cold to north, warm to the south).
Theory aside, here is the composite Oct chart for the last 20 years.....mild and dry
But with my snow tinted glasses on, am thinking this year will be different....nothing lasts for ever.....certainly not dry Octobers.
edit found time to run thru the individual years, and there were a few decent octobers in there:
2003, 2010, 2012.....while 2009 and 2017 were probably good at the eastern end.....then more recently 2020 wasn't bad, low pressure wise, but most of them are dominated by high pressure, a few with scandi high - med low's
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Matt Hugo, a pro forecaster / meteorologist who posts sometimes on netweather.tv, has shared a snapshot from his long range update (normally reserved for paying clients). It's very much at the technical end and some of it is hard to understand even if you know what all the acronyms mean.
But I'll give it a go at translating.....I know the terminology is OTT for here, but thought it would interesting to show how the pro's think
1. The atmospheric set up (global patterns, forcing) is currently disconnected from the El Nino signal....ie the onging north atlantic trough- euro high pattern is actually something he'd expect to see under La Nina, but it's here now.
2. No change in sight, expect more of the same, stormy over UK
3. Ex hurriances will continue to mess with predictions....it could go either way for the UK
4. There is one driver emerging (MJO signal) that might change this status quo, with more westerly winds in the pacific (ie change to a more El Nino atmospheric state)
5. Some models suggest high pressure to the north (greenland-iceland-scandinavia) during October, with a more southerly jet, ie low pressure into europe. He then says that Octobers are becoming less stormy, esp UK. But we knew that yesterday 
6. The punch line....what will happen in late autumn and winter....mild and stormy into Dec, then getting colder, with higher chance of sudden stratospheric warming mid winter, which could reinforce the cold. I think this is the El Nino consensus, a back loaded winter.
7. Something about NZ/OZ
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You know it makes sense.
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The first light dustings of snow have arrived in the Northern Cascades. Winter is coming. Chill in the air and possibly more high elevation snow at the end of the week for the PNW mountains.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Toadman, Great to hear also from another part of the world
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Poster: A snowHead
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Glaciers start to turn white again in the Western Alps from this evening , snow rain level 2500/2300m at times tonight .
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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and a bit lower into sat....northern alps as well, while south eastern areas (north of lugano maybe) could see decent accumulations with the low heading to Italy
Next week though the west coasts of Ire, UK, Norway will take a few more hits, while central europe dries out. Make plans for nigel.
ECM 10 day view....each model will show different accumulations, but general theme is the same
Just had lightening flash and the grid power has cut again......lovin the solar batteries.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Snowing mid-Mountain at Bachelor, Oregon. Cool air drifting down from the Arctic. Will funnel over the Canadian and American Rockies on Friday. Should see some dustings of snow on the peaks above 1,800 meters or so in Montana and Colorado.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Early snow in Kiruna, Sweden. The groomers were out today preparing the trails.
still not that amazing, I ski toured at Chamrousse about 3 years ago at the same period.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Light dusting in Central Oregon. Will all be gone by Sunday with a warm up this weekend.
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The tux is back up to 7km. Time to get the gear out of the attic.
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It was +10c / 50f at 3200m at Hintertux today.
Still way too hot in Europe.
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T'will come. Watched kettle.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Hurricane Nigel's future is sealed, lost in the atlantic entropy. But ex hurricane Ophelia now identifies as storm Agnes, arriving tomorrow morning SW Ire.
Should weaken a bit as it crosses UK, then looking settled fri-sun.
Beautiful but boring weather here in central europe, cool nights (12c), clear daytime sunny skies low 20's. Even lac Leman is still 20c, which is nice as all the french tourists are long gone. But no excuse not to get all those autumn chores done as well.
No immediate end in sight to the atlantic low (and mild western europe), fed by a near constant supply of tropical storms ending up south of greenland. Will probably take a few more weeks before any significant change. Looking 10 days out, good agreement across the 3 main anomaly charts for some kind of Omega block, high pressure wedged between 2 lows.
ECM mean 6th Oct
The position of the high will change a bit no doubt, and if it backs up west just a little bit, we could see some northerly flow towards Austria.
Another long update from these guys.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
Their articles are great at explaining the main drivers step by step.....but each article assumes a very basic understanding, so a lot of repetition, and maybe unnecessarily long for seasoned weather nerds. Some interesting charts (US snow by state), polar vortex etc.
Same story though, they expect low pressure to run south across both US and Europe.
Two previous years that had El Nino and -QBO were 9/10 and 14/15. The first was great for europe as the PV collapsed, the second not so much.
Again models pointing at later rather than earlier winter cold.
I don't know about this consensus, too many experts make a crowd, and I avoid crowds. So am going for early cold, followed by mid season cold, and ending with some late cold.
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I'm not unhappy with that prediction.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@afterski, for me there's nothing better than early cold....a 50cm November dump, reloading until lifts open....late cold invariably gets slushed out.
And from the first page, the average El Nino winter pressure pattern mentioned shows a blocked north atlantic, pointing to more cold at the eastern end of alps, drier west. Hope the whole of the alps joins in though, while the projected overall southerly jet would favour southern alps for snow, med lows.
GFS 06z shows the cold air coming down left side of scandi low.....one or two Op runs at 10 days out isn't reliable, but there's nothing else to watch at the moment....few more days before the mean ensemble charts might lend support, or shift the pattern too far E/NE.
Fantasy Island freeze levels
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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'Tux looking decent after fresh snow last week, pic from snow-forecast.com
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Woke up to a beautiful blanket of fresh white snow in the Southern Cascades. Nice to see but too soon to get overly excited.
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You know it makes sense.
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Dreadful forecasting recently.....looks quite wet again in UK away from the southeast this weekend, and only a glancing blow of cooler air into austria next week.
Here's the GFS 12z mean for 6th to compare to above, whole pattern has shifted 1000 km's NE.
Day 10 is unsurprisingly hard to guess, more so this time of year, while of course more realistic odds are available at days 7-8 when the mean anomaly charts are aligned. But where's the risk / fun in that.
Warm weather continuing until the 3rd here, then dropping a little. Big change is south of greenland, models pointing to high pressure moving in from the US with the former atlantic low pushed closer to europe. Probably gets squeezed near UK as euro block still showing up in the near term modeling.
GEM mean 8th, others similar
Still thinking towards mid Oct will see more significant change.....north atlantic high, or even northern blocking. Based on pacific drivers, El Nino impact growing and that nothing (the deep atlantic low, euro high) lasts forever etc etc. A combination of science and a hunch, the sciunch.
New York today
And Lac Leman, 18c, feels colder than that until you get going.....view towards Lausanne / Bob country
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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It's flood or drought. Rain or shine. Feast or famine these days.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Toadman, Yes the even the waving line between hot and cold is so great , ok more pronounced on the hot side but the gradient between the two is huge these days
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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We’ve reached October but there is still a lot of heat around. London, Innsbruck and Chamonix are all forecast to exceed 20c at times this week. No doubt sea, land and air temperatures are warmer than average for this time of year. Things are going to have to start cooling down a lot over the next five weeks to reach snow making temperatures in time for early season opening.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @Toadman, Yes the even the waving line between hot and cold is so great , ok more pronounced on the hot side but the gradient between the two is huge these days |
There's definitely a lot to be said for all that heat energy that's still in the global weather system.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@polo, Here we go again - torturing ourselves! I shall remain glued to your reports!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hottest start to October on record in France. Temperatures of 36C reported.
Meteo France say we are in a summer weather pattern to 14th at least.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@elefantfresh, where you going this year? If you put a gun to my head I'd have to say the current evidence points towards eastern end doing relatively well, followed by south and then west. Not what I want personally but can't let bias overrule what the patterns are showing.
Several reasons, El Nino average winter pattern has atlantic high too close to western end, while low pressure systems will run over this to the east via scandi, as well as under the high towards the med. Jet stream is often split into separate northern and southern arms.
I also look for early patterns this time of year, and so far we have seen tendancies for an Iberian low, or mid atlantic low, both resulting in high pressure and mild conditions over France. Might not matter in a few weeks, all subject to change, but that's how it looks right now.
Records continue to tumble in the wrong direction, 38 in portugal recently, and UK Oct record likely on Sat.
Upper airmass about 12c above norm by Sat, could stay warm into mon/tues....Omega shape
Ground temps into low to mid 20's, broadscale models normally underestimate surface temps by 2-3 degrees
Looking further out, even mid atlantic high doesn't guarantee a significant cool down, as EC42 shows for week 2 (9-15th) the north atlantic high pressure anomaly can link up with existing west euro high
But within that week there's a chance of NW flow on the ECM mean (below), albeit less evident on GEM and GFS.....so low odds it would reach the alps until we see more cross model agreement. And even if ECM is right, it only brings temps back to average for time of year.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 3-10-23 10:23; edited 1 time in total
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May I also add that the ground temperature which is key to the formation of an early base must be way above normal for this time of year at the moment - fresh snow lying on soil / rocks that have not had the chance to consistently freeze is not good news.
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Not the most welcome contribution to this thread but hey ho.
Last week I was in Kirkenes, Norway. This is as far north and east as you can go in Europe. The sunshine and temperature were extraordinary. We were in 15° c, the huskies were not impressed.
On a serious note, we have been told that it is the polar regions experiencing the warming cycle.
Categorically this happening.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Too early for snow now anyway as @franga, says ground is too warm and new snow upon it = unstable base . Best option is for the Autumn to now have a dry cooling after this heatwave ends to the end of Oct and then we can bring on cold and snow to the high mountain gradually lowing as November progresses , can always hope for perfection . Early Snow is never a blessing if you want a stable base in my view but experts like @davidof know more about this .
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| franga wrote: |
| May I also add that the ground temperature which is key to the formation of an early base must be way above normal for this time of year at the moment - fresh snow lying on soil / rocks that have not had the chance to consistently freeze is not good news. |
It's only the 3rd Oct, plenty of time for temps to drop and the ground to freeze before what would be considered very early season in December!
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FAQ
