 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Woosh wrote: |
Looks like we might have another La Nina event this winter:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/enso-la-nina-watch-autumn-winter-2021-2022-usa-europe-fa/
As is said in the article: we did not see the expected development in North America, probably due to the strong SSW.
Low probability for a third SSW in a row this winter, but cannot be ruled out.
An early and speculative sign of wet and mild winter for the UK and the Nordics and dry weather for the Alps?
Or will we see low pressure system to Europe and cold weather as indicated by the limited research for a second year La Nina like 2018? |
Brrrrr, hope not! Whilst the snow we had here was plentiful, we also had a 2-3 week spell of -12 to -20C in January that particular Winter. A very warm March, too….not the best Spring skiing, for sure.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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What an amazing summer, indeed what an amazing year in the west  wall to wall sunshine, warm and very dry will very little flooding last winter and loads of snow. No doubt it will change back at some time but enjoy it while it lasts this week. Lots of days like this morning at Glencoe. It’s been a good summer to build the new base cafe.
http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/
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Cloudy and a bit nippy here!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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September strikes again as it often (indeed always unless I am much mistaken) does at the start of autumn.
Normally see the first ripples of winter at some point this month with snowfall briefly descending before rapidly retreating.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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conveniently the records in the images only go back as far as 1981
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@Mr.Egg, I have to say it should show records over at least 100 years. I suspect this would only add to the validity of global warming, but it opens up accusations of utilising only data that suit a specific point.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Hottest September day in Scotland for 115 years. 26c in the Cowal peninsular today. Just fabulous
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Up to St Andrews for a few days golf on Monday. Very glad it’s cooling down myself
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some properly chilly weather for the time of year starting to crop up on GFS in the last week of September. Too far out to take seriously, but ECM also toying with cooler conditions so potentially a sign of things to come.
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You know it makes sense.
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Atmospheric River on tap for the PNW this weekend. Some cool air coming down from the Gulf of AK will hook up with some moist and warm air from the South. Will be much needed precipitation that will hopefully knock down the fires burning in WA, OR and ID. Possibly some moisture for Northern CA as well.
Cascades and BC interior should see some snow above 1,800 meters on Saturday/Sunday. Same for Central ID and parts of MT.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, it’s going to get a lot colder then! The electronic forecasting gods speak as one.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@twoodwar, yes they do, and exactly one year apart, to the hour
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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It’s started above 2000m…
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, ahhhh! Missed the year!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Same system should drop roughly the same on top of Hintertux. Snow-line down to about 2100m tomorrow.
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Both ECM and GFS have been backing away from a colder shot in last week of September mind you.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Is it snowing yet?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Good grief it’s properly raining in North Yorkshire this morning for what feels like the first time since May 
Have to go back to December before that. Hope it doesn’t just rain constantly now until next May !
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| Peter S wrote: |
Good grief it’s properly raining in North Yorkshire this morning for what feels like the first time since May
Have to go back to December before that. Hope it doesn’t just rain constantly now until next May ! |
Yes proper change in the weather, walked the dog in shorts yesterday, full waterproofs today and cold hands!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Here‘s what that low pressure looks like over the UK on this evenings GFS.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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After a very pleasant and warm weekend up to 25 degrees, beer garden weather, (we were at Chiemsee, nice views down towards Salzburg and glimpses of the mountains around Fieberbrunn) it has turned noticeably autumnal over the past couple of days. I see snow is forecast up high next week in parts of the Tirol.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hintertux looking pretty tempting later this week… 30-50cm snow likely up top.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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And Tignes looking nice & white at altitude 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Update for 12th anomaly, a week later the ECM mean forecast (above) was a good fit for this shallow low to the east from tomorrow
Looking 10 days out, all 3 main models have similar NH profile with blocking over Canada and trough near Iceland / Scandinavia...here's the blended one, GEM this time. Hopefully the ongoing atlantic low (see above charts) south of Greenland finally gets to move on as it's helping high pressure build in western europe. The forecast profile below would allow for colder, wetter more NW flow into UK / western europe.
10hpa winds are looking weak into at least Nov, while NAO and AO are also staying negative for now. Here's ECM strat anomaly for week 2, ie Mon 18th-25th Oct showing a vortex lobe over northern europe and ongoing Canada / Greenland block.
Not easy to prove any direct link with the strat and trop, but in general it helps to have the strat vortex slowing down and on our side of the NH / away from Greenland. Also can be significant delays in any downwelling effects, or coupling....it's more usual for them to be working together though when the vortex is ramping up deeper into winter, as the temperature difference between mid and high lattitude increases and fires up jet stream. If vortex winds slow down enough to be net easterly (negative), you have sudden stratospheric warming. I read Simon Lee says it might not be a good outcome to have an early SSW (November) as the inevitable rebound would happen during the coldest months (Jan).....leading to +NAO / milder / atlantic flow
Here's something different I came across....reliability stats for precipitation (only summer was available). Shows the steep drop off in skill after just a few days. ECM best, with GFS somehow managing a negative skill score in 2020.
And this one from ECM shows the progess models have made over the last few decades.....higher skill and less of a North-South gap over time, leading to 98% accuracy 3 days out, and 50% 10 days out
edit....GFS 06z just out shows the ideal evolution (classic early season La Nina imprint), but way off in never never land
And a good article here about strat - trop influence and analysis of recent SSW's
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/
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FAQ
) with blocking to the north and mid atlantic.
Coming early next week in the Rockies. Wax up the boards boys and girls, and dust off the ski clothing. The time to strap on those ski boots is nigh.
