 Poster: A snowHead
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Laax, Switzerland, the first nonglacier Alpine resort to open, on Thursday.
Verbier following Friday.
Western European Alps are go.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Interesting output from both GFS and ECM this morning showing a plunge of cool air around 11 November.
If that came off it would be both cold and snowy going into mid month. A long way off of course, but striking that both ECM and GFS go for a similar set up. Interesting.
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At least for the US.
Death to the ridge!
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sat 3-11-12 0:03; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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From J2Ski this morning
| Quote: |
Whilst it will be a little milder in The Alps over the weekend, temperatures will fall below the season averages by Monday. At the same time, a succession of weather fronts will cross the region bringing snow to just about everywhere. The snowfalls predicted for the 4th and 5th, in particular, look pretty significant for the Northern and Eastern Alps and local accumulations could exceed 50cm in places! The snow line should fall toward 1,000 metres by the beginning of next week.
The longer term forecasts are consistently indicating snow in varying quantities throughout the next two weeks... |
Any truth is this? 
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Yes, snowfall around 04 and 05 November looks good. As it arrives on Sunday in the west temperatures will still be relatively high, falling as you get further east so by the time we get to Monday (and the snowfall arrives in the east) temperatures will be cooler with the snowline dropping to 1200m +-. Totals of 50cm would be at the high end of what I'd expect, but certainly 20-30cm.
More snow falling around 11 November. This morning everything is pushed further west by several 100 miles so looking less likely to be accompanied by the cold plunge visible yesterday, but that could change in later runs.
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Being fairly new to skiing in the Alps, can someone define what is considered Eastern versus Western Alps? Also, North and South delineation would be useful. I see a lot of referral to these geographical references. Thanks!
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North is the just the northern side, so Austria/parts of Swiss, Italy (and I guess most of France?) would be the Southern side.
East I generally figure to mean East of Tirol, so Salzburg-way onwards.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, any insight on how to read these things? Apparently this means snow is coming to Stubai again, is the bottom bit the relevant bit for precipitation? Second bit I guess freezing level, third wind (though have no idea how to read it).
Cheers
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clarky999, looks like wet snow as the precipitation window corresponds with temps being just over 0c at that altitude of 2148m.
Rain in the valley, snow up on the Glacier.
The forecast for Tignes is similar - minging rain this weekend and 6c temps in the 'village' but snow up on the GM.
Pretty normal for early November
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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red 27, cheers. So it's basically saying on the 5th, lots of precipitation, high humidity (?), low wind, 0º at 2148, and clouds at all levels (?)? What does the second bar mean - I thought that might have been freezing level, obviously not now, is it pressure? I assume that would be low pressure? What sort of levels would be counted as high pressure?
Really interested in this stuff, if anyone knows any sites with good info on the topic I'd be grateful.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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in the chart, red is meant to be rain, green snow from bottom. One above is temp, wind, pressure
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clarky999, sorry - only the rain/snow one and the temp one mean anything to me - we better wait for Nozza 
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You know it makes sense.
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clarky999, it's a meteogram produced using GFS, it's just another way at looking at the same data. Obviously it,s going forward in time left to right. The interesting part is around 04/05 November.
The temperatures (the fourth chart) is given at 2148m asl. So when it's at 0C at 2148m the snow line will be around 1850m. By the time it's down to -5C it's closer to 1400m.
The precipitation figure at the bottom (in mm of rain) is always a bit hard to be precise about, but that would be around 40cm+ of snow at altitude.
The second chart is surface pressure. You can see it is lower when the snow comes in, then rises from 07 November and the cloud cover (wolken) starts to break up as the pressure rises.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, thanks!
Do you know anything more about the wind one? I presume the green line is wind speed, the black direction or something maybe?
Is there a rule of thumb to convert mm of rain into amount of snow?
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Poster: A snowHead
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clarky999, it's wind speed in knots. The wind "barb" also indicates the direction the wind is coming from. So you can see for the next few days it is coming from the south and will produce a foehn wind. It then switches to the north with colder air coming down.
Wind barbs
A very rough rule of thumb would be 1mm of rain produces 1cm of snow! So 1:10. But it is very dependent on the density of snow. Cold powder would be closer to 1:20, heavy wet snow is close to 1:5.
Accumulated Wisdom: How to measure snow
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sat 3-11-12 0:02; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, thanks, really good info.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| boofit wrote: |
| Being fairly new to skiing in the Alps, can someone define what is considered Eastern versus Western Alps? Also, North and South delineation would be useful. I see a lot of referral to these geographical references. Thanks! |
HISTALP has a useful map, but I tend to think of the Eastern Alps as roughly east of a line between Lake Constance (Bodensee) and Lake Como (so further west than it appears on the HISTALP map).
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sat 3-11-12 0:01; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Snow continues to look good Sunday and Monday and a second band midweek looking possible too down to 1200m. The weight of the snow looks like being in the Eastern Alps. And again next weekend though possibly with a higher snow line. GFS FI hinting at some warmer weather possibly mid month, though there's time for that to change.
Here's SLF's thoughts from this afternoon.
Caution urged towards snowdrift
"By Thursday midday above 2000 m on the Main Alpine Ridge from Saastal into the Bernina region and southwards thereof, 15 to 30 cm of snowfall had fallen, in the remaining regions there was 5 to 15 cm of new fallen snow widespread. The wind on Thursday and Friday, 2 November, was blowing at moderate to strong velocity in northern regions, intermittently at storm strength; in southern regions the southerly to westerly winds were blowing at light to moderate strength."
"On Saturday, 3 November, it is expected to be quite sunny in northern regions; in southern regions skies will become increasingly overcast. Amidst strong to stormy foehn winds, temperatures in northern regions at 2000 m will climb at midday to plus 4 degrees."
"By Monday morning the snowfall level in northern regions will drop down to 1200 m, in southern regions it will remain at 2000 m. Between Sunday and Monday midday above approximately 2500 m in the western part of the northern flank of the Alps, in Lower Valais and on the southern flank of the Alps, 20 to 40 cm of snowfall is expected; in the remaining regions, 10 to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow."
Interesting piece on Early Ups.
When Early Season Snow Equals Bad News
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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So some good snow in prospect at altitude later tomorrow and lower down as it clears through on 05 November.
The middle of next week looks cool, Wednesday morning in particular and there could be some light snow showers about on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures warming up towards the weekend again at which point a lot of uncertainty. A number of runs have brought some heavy weather through next weekend 10/11 November, which at this stage could be heavy rain, heavy snow or neither.
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nozawaonsen, My 12/13 starts soon so keeping tuned to your valuable weather updates. I'm hoping to grab a day or 2 next weekend in Schladming. Looking like a warm day there tomorrow and then cooling off with some snow. Next weekend is looking uncertain so I'll not be getting my hopes up too much just yet.
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waynos, Tuesday or Wednesday next week could be a strong call.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, look like some big peaks for Monday on quite a few of those ensembles!!
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Decent 12z GFS this afternoon. Snowfall at altitude tomorrow in the western Alps (2100m+), arriving in the eastern Alps Monday with colder weather (1500m+ and lower further east), further light snowfall following in the cooler weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Saturday still uncertain cooler in this run, but less snow and later (11/12 November). A fair bit of chopping and changing still to come I suspect.
FI often cooler than average and snowy.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Here's Accuweather's winter forecast for Europe.
Europe Winter Forecast: Not as Harsh as Last Year's Deep Freeze
"January to February will be the best chance for cold air coming out of Siberia"
"However, the cold will not last as long or be as harsh as the deep freeze of last winter, Reppert emphasized. During the second half of January and early February 2012, bitterly cold air originating from Siberia killed hundreds of people across Europe."
"On the northern edge of the storm train, more snow than usual is forecast in the Pyrenees Mountains, the Alps and Balkan Mountains. With above-normal snow and temperatures that will be cold enough to sustain heavy snow pack, a good ski season is anticipated."
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some thoughts on October from SLF.
Plutôt doux, beaucoup de précipitations et deux offensives hivernales marquées
http://www.slf.ch/lawineninfo/wochenbericht/2012-13/1001/index_FR
15 October First Winter Offensive
- Snowfall down to 600m.
- considerable snowfall above 2000m.
- 50-70cm over 2 days in the centre of the main Alpine ridge (see fig 5 in article).
16 to 25 October mild Indian summer
26 to 31 October Second Winter Offensive
- from 27 October snowfall in all regions down to low levels.
- 30-50cm of snow.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Interesting chart flagged up by Cliff Mass showing how GFS coped with plotting Sandy's path compared to ECM which has apparently sparked some discussion.
The substance of his blog is also interesting with another storm heading to the NE coast of the US (not on the scale of Sandy).
Another Major Storm for the Northeast U.S.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/another-major-storm-for-northeast-us.html?m=0
"With cool air inland, there is a good chance for major snow away from the coast."
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Poster: A snowHead
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Was flying out of Exeter this morning and there was some patches of white around Bristol!!!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Daleskier wrote: |
| Was flying out of Exeter this morning and there was some patches of white around Bristol!!!! |
Yes, I'm afraid there has been rather a lot of immigration in that part of the South West.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Some reasonable snowfall in the Alps above 2100m in the west tonight, pushing east as temperatures fall tomorrow and bringing the snowline closer to 1400m, possibly 1100m in parts of Austria.
Possibly more light snow showers Tuesday (and with generally much cooler temperatures).
By the end of the week it's getting tricky, but at present further snow looks likely. Beyond that at present temperatures look pretty seasonal, but with little consistency from run to run anything below 11 November is very low confidence. A general seasonal cooling would be fine, this regular snow and rather cool temperatures is building things up nicely, what would be a little frustrating would be a significant warm up!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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12Z GFS had plenty of snow around the Alps next weekend through Tuesday.
Slightly less cold (without being especially mild) in FI beyond 264. Then again I wouldn't worry too much about that at this stage.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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CFS continues to show a + NAO for December, increasing the likelihood of milder, but stormier weather in the northern Alps. That said there remains a positive anomaly over Scandinavia (or at least to the east) which could draw colder weather across the east of Europe.
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Unsettled and possibly snowy weather in the Alps this weekwnd and early next week has backed west and south in this morning's runs so would possibly miss the eastern Alps. That said the course of the stormy weather is proving difficult to pin down at present. If this morning's runs we're correct it would be less cold, but would still bring heavy snow at altitude to the western end and southern side of the Alps. That could change. Let's see how it looks this evening.
More generally if this week looks below average the week after looks slightly above, but there is a lot of uncertainty about this weekend let alone what happens after. There are some attempts to build pressure out east later in the GFS run and you can see how this starts to build colder air out east in the second week.
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Not enough to reach the Alps yet, but a source to draw upon. But low confidence in that outcome for now.
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^ Bro, your forecasts have far too many "possiblys" and "coulds" in them.
The constant uncertainty makes the forecasts painful to read.
Time to introduce more confidence in your forecasts.
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Whitegold, bog off
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Pedantica wrote: |
| Whitegold, bog off |
+1
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+1
It's the uncertainty that makes this thread so delicious.
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FAQ
