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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Interesting to see that quite a few forecasts are slightly increasing the potential snowfall in the Alps on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. ECM shows the low pressure system...



Cold weather still very much the firm focus from Monday until at least next weekend...

Again in the first week of December some of the ensembles start to look at shifting to temperatures closer to seasonal average, the control actually goes a bit over seasonal average and would be accompanied by larger amounts of precipitation at the end of the run...

There is a broad spread of GFS ensembles from next Friday, although there seems to be an upwards drift there are a few that take things even colder and the operational doesn't look very convinced... by the end of the run it is taking things colder again...

wink


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Fri 19-11-10 10:36; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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So are the numbers cm or inches or snow? Scotlands in for a big dump by the looks of it!!!
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CM, I found out last night
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Ricklovesthepowder, yes cm as Shimmy Alcott says.

It's a German website and for some reason they never really cottoned onto imperial measurements...

Zwanzig centimeter...
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...nie im leben kleiner Peter.
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 brian
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ECM and GFS both want to slide a killer low under the block, heading for the alps. Deep FI but shows the snow potential of next week's setup. Were that sort of warm/cold collision to occur over the UK, the northern side of it would be an absolute snowfest. wink For the alps, it would pull the foehn up from the sahara as it arrives, but leave with a lot of snow as it pushes east.

The next couple of weeks are looking very interesting however it pans out ...

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snowHead snowHead snowHead
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Tad chilly round Ischgl/Arlberg week on Saturday morning?



Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Sun 21-11-10 10:50; edited 5 times in total
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Nice
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nozawaonsen, poo-poo - they're forecasting -18 for my neck of the woods Shocked

Think I'd better cover up the car and turn up the heating! It was very clear here last night as well but sleet came in around 4:30 and luckily removed the worst of the frost.
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-30 to -38 trumps -18 last time I played hypothetical unlikely model outcomes... wink
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
12z continues to look very cold for final week of November in the Alps, a fair amount of ensembles suggesting things will return to average in first week of December...
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nozawaonsen wrote:
-30 to -38 trumps -18 last time I played hypothetical unlikely model outcomes... wink


Laughing Laughing Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The 2010 / 2011 season in the Northern Hemisphere is off to a flier.

Plenty of snow and cold in most countries across North America, Europe and Asia.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Whitegold, looking good at the moment... Another snow storm heading into the Colorado by the look of it... Scotland could get quite a lot of snow in the coming week too...

Back in the Alps it looks like there should be a reasonable amount of snowfall Sunday going into Tuesday (hitting the west a day before the east). Then...

... it gets really rather cold for November Shocked

It also looks like there could be a further bout of snowfall, possibly quite significant, about around the end of November.

Very broadly, temperatures start dropping from Monday, it seems that the coldest temperatures in the Alps (eastern Austria looking particularly cold) will be around next weekend. Although the evolution is certainly not clear, from then on there does seem to be a trend for temperatures to gradually pick up. Although given how cold it looks like it will be, any "warming" up will really just be a climb back to seasonal averages or just below! (mind you there are some indications that the cold might dig in...)

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This evening's models are just coming out. And the cold is rolling in...

It looks like the snow could be pretty widespread including across the UK (and the far end of FI doesn't hold back on snow options for even the south of the UK...)


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nozawaonsen, where do you get that map from me likey...
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nozawaonsen, Is it accumulated snow over a certain period as opposed to new snow?
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nozawaonsen, Thank you NOT for that - I have to drive to the UK and back this coming week. I'm leaving on Wednesday night after work and returning on Saturday through to Sunday by the look of things. rolling eyes I can see me buzzing along on Red Bull and caffeine hoping not to have to get my chains out Evil or Very Mad

We have snow forecast from tomorrow - only light showers, but from Tuesday onwards a steady, but continuous fall across the whole of the Alpine Foreland until the end of the week, so that is the predicted amount as accumulated on the ground by next Sunday Twisted Evil

Oh Poo (saving the bloody profanity filter the bother!) rolling eyes
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MoodyFFS, http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif (the 00 indicates 00z, if you put in 12 it will be 12z etc, etc).

cad99uk, yes accumulated snow in cm (between the indicated run and out to +180hrs) as opposed to new snow! It is based on the GFS operational run so very subject to change... but kind of fun.
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nozawaonsen, Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Thanks for posting that nozawaonsen, seems the models are tending to move towards some agreement although I get the impression snow for the whole of the UK is something that still might be reconsidered but it's most likely in the north and east - potentially great for the Scottish mountains, particularly Cairngorm, The Lecht and Glenshee, of course!

The Mountain Weather Information Service have posted the following outlook for the UK:
Quote:
Planning Outlook: All mountain areas of Britain from Monday, 22nd November, 2010
Remaining rather cold on Monday and into Tuesday with a similar east west split to that on Sunday as sheets of cloud come in off the North Sea giving a little precipitation in the east with light snowfalls above about 600m. Late Tuesday through into the latter half of the week the weather will turn exceptionally cold for late November with frost becoming persistent at all levels inland. Clusters of snow showers coming in mainly off seas to the north and east may develop into areas of locally heavy snow. Occasionally winds may strengthen to cause significant drifting.

Great to see prospects for significant snow across the Alps as well but commisserations Samerberg Sue, sorry it looks like the drive back will be a bit of an ordeal but at least it could mean significant dumps for snowsports. All subject to change and adjustment as usual though I guess so lets not count chickens, or get too worried about drives, just yet Smile
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nozawaonsen, Thanks. Just noticed that it seems to be kg/m^2 which does indeed equate to cm of snow. A useful site Ta.
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As I said I wouldn't put too much faith in the exact figures they can change quite a bit from run to run as the operational slips and slides around... wink
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nozawaonsen, even though i dont have clue about these graphs etc, i love reading your posts!!! That one of the snowfall is in cm, so are you seriously telling me that in 180hrs from now, Norfolk will have 15cm of snow, calais will have 7cm and cairgorm 29cm??? I hope our right, but i just cant see it! Confused
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Ricklovesthepowder, it's unlikely but its pretty much just 'a snowfall'. If it's cold I see no reason why not?
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scotia, i can believe it for cairgorm, but not for the lowest part of the country!!! I would love to be wrong though, i hope it snows lots and lots!!!
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Ricklovesthepowder, we are of course still a week out... And snow like that would be unusual in mid winter let alone the end of November...

The combination of conditions you'd need to find to pull it off are pretty rare, individually, let alone together and you wouldn't expect to see them all combine in November...

Until stomping and shouting its way into town came this evening's 12z GFS!

In fairness the potential for snow has been in the charts for a while now. Whether the run in 12z actually happens... Well we'll see...

Interestingly right at the end of the run with everything cold, cold, cold... GFS sails a low right down the Channel, that really would make things snowy down south... That however is deep FI and I wouldn't put money on it. Snow in the East and Scotland next weekend? Well that's got me reaching for my wallet... not a sure thing, no... but. wink


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Sat 20-11-10 23:53; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, sounds good, i hate being wrong but in this case i would love it!!! Very Happy
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Also keep in mind that the actual figures will certainly change, it's the trend rather than the fact that it says 18cm one run and 15cm the next. Also this is just a figure derived from adding the accumulated snowfall over 180hrs. It would not look like that on the ground over time as the wind would transport it, it would melt in the sun and compact under its own weight.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Anyhow, back to the Alps...

Arlberg (opening next weekend)



Val Thorens (openned this weekend)



A couple of thoughts beyond the obvious cold. Far out, but there looks to be indications of more snow around end of November, start December.
Very Happy

The operational at the end of the run is exploring colder options once more... wink
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Looks cold but little sign of snow really? A burst in the next couple of days then a chance in Dec... Or am I missing something? Snow blowing for sure!
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MoodyFFS, just a feeling about round 30 November/01 December... Pretty consistently looking like something going on round then... And the control run has sent strong outliers up round there several times in the last few runs (though not an especially strong one in 12z admittedly). There is a low pressure sitting in Eastern Europe around that time, I'm wondering if it might shift closer to the Alps... Saturday night speculation to be honest with you... wink

Edit: 18z rolling out now...
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http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC_05Grad/192_24.gif

Some serious winter weather coming up but even so, opportunities for ski touring powder in the Wicklow mountains have got to be pretty rare.
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moffatross, I've just said it but I'll say it again - 53 Shocked Shocked Shocked
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roga, my children are off school 29th Nov-1st Dec for St Andrew's Day & 2 insets. I'll be booking off those 3 days on Monday too. Very Happy
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Ooo, we were hoping to come up on the 3rd December snowHead
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Shimmy Alcott, my birthday!!!
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Quote:

moffatross Some serious winter weather coming up

Very Happy

Fascinating charts last night and this morning!

Exactly where the snow might fall in the UK is chopping and changing, but it is looking more and more likely it will and almost all the runs look good for the Scottish slopes!

In the Alps a large fall of snow around 30 November/01 December (still FI) is back on the cards, especially in France.



Chamonix



Today's 00z sees a much clearer, albeit in the distance, trend towards warming up too (after an extended period in the freezer). By the end of the first week of December freezing levels in the Alps could be up to 2000m (slightly cooler in the east rather than the west) with more strong precipitation (slightly more west rather than east). But obviously that is right at the far, far end of the run and will almost certainly change... (and some other forecasts have the cold spell running all the way through the middle of December...)

Fascinating. wink


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sun 21-11-10 18:15; edited 2 times in total
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If 06z's low pressure in the middle of Europe came off at +240 it would be... very interesting... wink
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