 Poster: A snowHead
|
@elefantfresh, That’s right Everything is right on track , don’t normally see the guns firing up till about now if the weather is right , looks like cold is coming towards end of the month and a few falls of snow . Problem is the early snow excited too many people , especially the small operators chucking out pics on social media and email marketing the day the torrential rain washed it all away . I had friends saying to me oh loads of snow in Sainte Foy err not anymore was the reply . But the reality is that the upper mountain is ahead of schedule so fingers crossed for a sensible start .
Reopening it doesn’t matter how much or how little snow there is in place , no point opening if you don’t have the staff in place or the punters to ski there is a timeframe they all work to .
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
It was Polos' fault for sharing that powder video from Les Gets - getting us all wound up!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Rob Mackley wrote: |
@elefantfresh, That’s right Everything is right on track , don’t normally see the guns firing up till about now if the weather is right , looks like cold is coming towards end of the month and a few falls of snow . Problem is the early snow excited too many people , especially the small operators chucking out pics on social media and email marketing the day the torrential rain washed it all away . I had friends saying to me oh loads of snow in Sainte Foy err not anymore was the reply . But the reality is that the upper mountain is ahead of schedule so fingers crossed for a sensible start .
Reopening it doesn’t matter how much or how little snow there is in place , no point opening if you don’t have the staff in place or the punters to ski there is a timeframe they all work to . |
+1 ... just looked at the ensemble runs for 3-4 resorts in the French Alps, early December (I know it's 2 weeks away) looks promising with colder temps (consistently around the OC mark at 850hPa) and some precipitation pushing through.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
Another interesting observation via various posts on inst and webcams that still no major cold at altitude ,seems none of the lakes at altitude have frozen over yet . Saw a tour of two locally famous lakes yesterday above Sainte Foy at altitude one at 2500m and another at 2800m , neither are frozen over yet, was surprised especiallyLac Blanc at 2800m
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Lac de l'Ouillette in Val Solaise (2500m) seems to be frozen over, or certainly holding snow. Despite the recent rain I'm not too worried for the opening weekend (yet).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Rob Mackley, that's the reservoir (I didn’t pan round that far), the Lac is further down, lookers left, by the lift. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable than me can say why the difference?
Last edited by After all it is free  on Fri 17-11-23 11:44; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@Dr John, oh perhaps water movement then from the cannons draining possibly
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Rob Mackley, that’s what I suspect
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
@Dr John, probably just that the lake is less deep than the reservoir. My understanding is that the surface won't freeze until the whole depth of the water is at 4 deg C, the deeper the water is, the longer it takes for that to happen
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
What sort of thickness would that ice freeze to? I remember many years ago in Lake Louise we watched people playing hockey on it.
Meanwhile, looks like a very slight dusting in Tignes - the wigwam was bare yesterday
https://en.tignes.net/webcams
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
@Garfield, Daily Mail, Sun, Star etc publish "snowmageddon" headlines all the time based on one random bloke in a shed saying it might snow somewhere as it sells more papers!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
I see cooler temps but not a significant amount of snow for NW Alps for the next ten days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
Lech / St Anton today has 1ft of fresh snow to village level.
Best snow in the Alps.
Lech-Warth road is shut, due to avalanche danger.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
@Garfield, There was a couple of runs last night pointing at a bit of cold end of the next week , one of the UK Twitter weather experts suggested it was one to look out for but only a big if , if you are on X or Twitter as it used to be known follow @TWOweather , @theSnowDreamer and @GavinPartridge and then you’ll really know about what’s gonna happen , they all love a bit of cold and snow so if anything is really brewing they go into overdrive .
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Whitegold wrote: |
Lech / St Anton today has 1ft of fresh snow to village level.
Best snow in the Alps.
Lech-Warth road is shut, due to avalanche danger. |
According to the forecast maps on https://www.wetter3.de/animation_dt.html , over a metre of new snow accumulation for eastern Swiss Alps and the entire Austria ski regions over the coming 10 days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Whitegold wrote: |
Lech-Warth road is shut, due to avalanche danger. |
The road between Warth & Lech is always closed in the winter, the terrain makes it very difficult to protect the road. There is a thought that the burghers of Lech like it that way as the only road in comes from the "Swiss" side therefore discouraging the German & Dutch hordes who might not have the money to spend on Bogner ski kit or Strolz boots.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| rambotion wrote: |
| @Dr John, probably just that the lake is less deep than the reservoir. My understanding is that the surface won't freeze until the whole depth of the water is at 4 deg C, the deeper the water is, the longer it takes for that to happen |
Don't know about France but in Austria they keep the water moving either by pumping some to not quite make a fountain or with small amounts of compressed air bubbles. Moving water won't freeze as easily as static water.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
No snow in the States. No significant storms on the immediate horizon. Trip planned to Colorado, on Nov 30, but I think I'm canceling and I'm going to grab a flight to Munich and hit Austrian Alps. Looks like the best chance for guaranteed snow and my wife will love the Christmas Markets as well.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Incredibly cold weather projected for Austria and Switzerland at the beginning of December according to www.wetter3.de, they’re showing as low as -20c.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Snow&skifan, where? I can't see it and my fave site (www.meteoblue.com) doesn't show anything like that (and it's Fantasy Island territory anyway).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| under a new name wrote: |
| @Snow&skifan, where? I can't see it and my fave site (www.meteoblue.com) doesn't show anything like that (and it's Fantasy Island territory anyway). |
"Wetter3.com offers an extensive number of up to date weather charts, produced from data based on the US GFS model (Global Forecast System), the DWD models (German Weather Service) and many other models".
And where did I find about their website? From snowheads weather threads over the years, their maps are often reproduced here.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Snow&skifan, err, I actually wondered of you could send a link linking to that forecast? Thanks ... (ps your earlier link didn't work without editing).
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
| under a new name wrote: |
| @Snow&skifan, err, I actually wondered of you could send a link linking to that forecast? Thanks ... (ps your earlier link didn't work without editing). |
Hi,
https://www.wetter3.de/animation_dt.html
Choose MittelEuropa, 2m or 850 hPa temperature maps and run them through, you’ll see projected very low numbers.
I’ve liked the website since I picked up on folk using it here a few years ago. To the genuine meteorological experts on snowheads only , is this a website that should be ignored as fantastical ad infinitum, or do its medium range forecasts have some creedance?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Well it's a model nerds dream out there, sometimes the chase is almost better than snow itself, especially in the nerd heavy snow starved UK. Been following every twist and turn and it's one of those very rare set ups where GFS has been like a dog with a bone for a week with the ideal evolution, versus every other model throwing in the spanners. Statistically GFS is 4th best, while being only very marginally behind UKMO and GEM, with ECM being consistently no.1 (at day 5).
But that doesn't tell the full story....you know averaging statistics at a 5 day cut off.....there are times where GFS has a better handle than all of the others. So this one is still not resolved for next weekend, but a good move in the right direction today from the pack. Maybe it's a timing issue, ie the northerly gets delayed until 27th on. The whole pattern for the last week of Nov (mild and dry or cold and snowy) depends on the position of lows around Newfoundland, which massively impact the atlantic ridge shape and how far west the deep Scandi low will reach into the alps. As mentioned before, east end is in the driving seat and is 70-80% on for a big dump. The west is still 50/50 at best.....will get on the charts tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@Snow&skifan, ah, I see, thank you 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
@Snow&skifan, that link uses GFS I believe, although you can select other models there.....so it's a good source, just the last few days have seen huge differences in the other models (compare it to YR.NO or Bergfex which use ECM). But that's the past now....they are starting to converge, just much later than normal, so the weekend outlook won't really become clear until tomorrow /tuesday.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Sun 19-11-23 20:23; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Some models currently suggesting -30c at Val Thorens in early Dec.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
| polo wrote: |
Well it's a model nerds dream out there, sometimes the chase is almost better than snow itself, especially in the nerd heavy snow starved UK. Been following every twist and turn and it's one of those very rare set ups where GFS has been like a dog with a bone for a week with the ideal evolution, versus every other model throwing in the spanners. Statistically GFS is 4th best, while being only very marginally behind UKMO and GEM, with ECM being consistently no.1 (at day 5).
But that doesn't tell the full story....you know averaging statistics at a 5 day cut off.....there are times where GFS has a better handle than all of the others. So this one is still not resolved for next weekend, but a good move in the right direction today from the pack. Maybe it's a timing issue, ie the northerly gets delayed until 27th on. The whole pattern for the last week of Nov (mild and dry or cold and snowy) depends on the position of lows around Newfoundland, which massively impact the atlantic ridge shape and how far west the deep Scandi low will reach into the alps. As mentioned before, east end is in the driving seat and is 70-80% on for a big dump. The west is still 50/50 at best.....will get on the charts tomorrow. |
Thank you, an enlightening post!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| polo wrote: |
| @Snow&skifan, that link uses GFS I believe, although you can select other models there.....so it's a good source, just the last few days have seen huge differences in the other models (compare it to YR.NO or Bergfex which use ECM). But that's the past now....they are starting to converge, just much later than normal, so the weekend outlook won't really become clear until tomorrow /tuesday. |
Comforting to know that they use GFS data.
For a while today I thought I’d been viewing something akin to Accuweather or the Daily Express 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Who's that guy, I think Noza mentioned him....yeah James Madden, every year the tabloids pick this up......but he / they were very likely focusing on long range GFS this week, it's not always right of course....really need to consider a wider picture.....but we are all hoping James and the Giant Peach (GFS) are right this time
first google search has this...UKMO has been typically and more sensibly cautious
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/met-office-speaks-out-over-28121897
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| polo wrote: |
Who's that guy, I think Noza mentioned him....yeah James Madden, every year the tabloids pick this up......but he / they were very likely focusing on long range GFS this week, it's not always right of course....really need to consider a wider picture.....but we are all hoping James and the Giant Peach (GFS) are right this time
first google search has this...UKMO has been typically and more sensibly cautious
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/met-office-speaks-out-over-28121897 |
I sometimes peruse the ECMWF website, but using it for free I can’t see user friendly maps covering The Alps as with other sites.
Do any of the free equivalents of www.wetter3.de use ECMWF data, please?
……. answering my own question, wetterzentrale.de appears to.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| polo wrote: |
Well it's a model nerds dream out there, sometimes the chase is almost better than snow itself, especially in the nerd heavy snow starved UK. Been following every twist and turn and it's one of those very rare set ups where GFS has been like a dog with a bone for a week with the ideal evolution, versus every other model throwing in the spanners. Statistically GFS is 4th best, while being only very marginally behind UKMO and GEM, with ECM being consistently no.1 (at day 5).
But that doesn't tell the full story....you know averaging statistics at a 5 day cut off.....there are times where GFS has a better handle than all of the others. So this one is still not resolved for next weekend, but a good move in the right direction today from the pack. Maybe it's a timing issue, ie the northerly gets delayed until 27th on. The whole pattern for the last week of Nov (mild and dry or cold and snowy) depends on the position of lows around Newfoundland, which massively impact the atlantic ridge shape and how far west the deep Scandi low will reach into the alps. As mentioned before, east end is in the driving seat and is 70-80% on for a big dump. The west is still 50/50 at best.....will get on the charts tomorrow. |
Enjoy the model nerding it whilst it lasts! In a couple of years ECMFW will be look like a mobile phone from the 1980s
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
@afterski, well yeah, I won't be too upset if we end up with faster more accurate 10 day models, it's already a significant time suck hobby....that doesn't achieve a whole lot. In most cases it doesn't make a huge difference if someone has a better grasp on the weather 6-7 days out vs 3-4 days. In any case it would just push the chase out a little further, ie if days 7-10 is nailed on, we'll be studying day 10 onwards.
Time will tell with these AI models....but they essentially piggy back the current numerical weather computing, ie they look at how well traditional models predicted the movement of certain features and then match those to current synoptics. So you still need accurate traditional computer modelling to build a database for AI. Also results so far suggest AI is only slightly better at extreme weather events, and not the other 99% of the time. While we are in an ever changing climate with distorted feedback loops, eg pacific and arctic forcing, then relying on previous analog data as AI does might not trump the heavy processing of current data.
Some thoughts on what has happened over the last week.....quite a few professional meteorologists have dimissed the idea of a strong atlantic ridge forming at all, as there are many factors working against that possibility.....eg the strat PV is very strong and beginning to filter down to the troposphere and the MJO pacific signal is weaker than expected. Both of these suggest there is no background forcing to sustain a mid atlantic ridge and we are likely to see westerlies dominate (much milder signal).
Now they may still be right, and we only get the briefest cold spell from the north, but it does reinforce the idea of trusting the actual model output more than some abstract global indicators. Like in trading the financial markets, I prefer to trade what you see (mostly chart based) as opposed to relying on fundamental analysis that suggests what should happen. Price action is all that matters. Likewise, with the weather....short term model output will trump mid range theory.
The EC46 charts aren't great for the next 2 weeks, brief NW-SE flow next weekend, followed by high pressure over much of europe into early Dec.
But we've already seen the chaos that one small area of low pressure south of Greenland can have for europe and the knock on impact beyond the weekend.....so again I wouldn't take any mid range model too seriously in the current environment.
I might have a look at the 12z in detail later as there still isn't great consensus in the various model outlooks, save to repeat the east is best placed for snow, it's very likely to turn much colder in general, while potentially too dry in the west. It's looking more and more likely that low pressure will break through the atlantic ridge, so a short lived cold spell, and then more uncertainty about how that low interacts with main scandi low.
Subtle differences across the board here around friday 24th still
     
Last 4 GFS snow charts out to 27th, oldest to newest....sliding east
   
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 20-11-23 11:39; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| polo wrote: |
| @afterskiTime will tell with these AI models....but they essentially piggy back the current numerical weather computing, ie they look at how well traditional models predicted the movement of certain features and then match those to current synoptics. So you still need accurate traditional computer modelling to build a database for AI. Also results so far suggest AI is only slightly better at extreme weather events, and not the other 99% of the time. While we are in an ever changing climate with distorted feedback loops, eg pacific and arctic forcing, then relying on previous analog data as AI does might not trump the heavy processing of current data. |
I don't believe this is actually correct. As I understand it the AI is trained on the real world atmospheric measurements from the last 40 odd years of the ECMWF's database. It is not trained on model's outputs. Ironically this might be the thing that slows it down as that isn't really a lot of datapoints for a AI to learn from (assuming every 6 hours is your average datapoint).
According to article in the FT:
GraphCast uses a machine-learning architecture called graph neural network, which learnt from more than 40 years of past ECMWF data about how weather systems develop and move around the globe.
The inputs for its forecasts are the states of the atmosphere worldwide at the current time and six hours earlier, assembled by ECMWF from global weather observations. GraphCast produces a 10-day forecast within a minute on a single Google TPU v4 cloud computer.
In contrast to this data-derived “black box” approach, the conventional method used by ECMWF and the world’s national meteorological offices, known as numerical weather prediction, uses supercomputers to crunch equations based on scientific knowledge of atmospheric physics — an energy-intensive process that takes several hours.
“Once trained, GraphCast is tremendously cheap to operate,” said Chantry. “We might be talking about 1,000 times cheaper in terms of energy consumption. That is a miraculous improvement.”
https://on.ft.com/3soUPkF
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@afterski, not sure that's very different to my limited understanding,.....I haven't read any articles, just noted a few comments here and there.
I've read that AI still needs all the computer crunching, and is based on analyzing analog data....and how the patterns evolved, maybe more real life observations than prediction, but it's still just pattern matching from the past, as opposed to processing current data.
And my point about the changing climate just means it will be difficult to predict the future based on the past, as patterns are likely to evolve differently as SST's or the arctic warms, or even cools etc
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@polo, AI is basically useless without being fed data (Machine Learning), in simplistic terms you teach it what good looks like and what bad looks like and it then starts to work out a model based on that, which is further refined with more and more good/bad data AFAIK. So yes, lots of data crunching and you end up with a LLM (large language model) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Experiment time...
* Question today to an AI bot...
How much snow will fall in the European Alps between Tuesday 21st November and Thursday 30th November, 2023?
* Answer today from the AI bot...
Based on current weather forecasts, the European Alps are expected to receive a total of 175 cm (68.9 inches) of snow between Tuesday, November 21st, and Thursday, November 30th, 2023.
The heaviest snowfall is expected in the western Alps, particularly in the French Alps, with some areas potentially receiving up to 200 cm (78.7 inches) of snow.
The eastern Alps are also expected to receive snowfall, but the amounts will be less significant, with some areas receiving up to 100 cm (39.4 inches) of snow.
The snow is expected to fall in several stages, with the heaviest snowfall expected on Saturday, November 26th, and Monday, November 28th.
The snow will be a welcome sight for skiers and snowboarders, but it could also cause some travel disruption.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
