 Poster: A snowHead
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emwmarine, it just means the period in the forecast where confidence drops substantially. So with GFS although it runs out to +384 by that point any confidence in the output is very low. It's certainly not a precise time period as it can be dependent on the prevailing weather (extended dominant high pressure for example can push it further out), but I'd say anything beyond six days is getting increasingly unreliable. You may see trends forming (through ensemble support or repetition) but the timing, extent and duration of any patterns is not something you can have any confidence in.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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WRF currently showing some sizeable accumulations all day Friday...
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 1-12-13 18:44; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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WePowder suggesting decent snowfall next weekend.
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Loving the explanation of Fantasy Island followed by the ardent optimism for next weekend 
I'm off to the Arlberg on Friday, so was looking at the GFS runs for that area. The 06 run looked quite promising for snowfall at the weekend but showed very little correlation for Saturday onwards. The 12 run seems to be more consistent but less probability of snow. Bah.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yes, I think it looks likely there will be some snow next weekend from Friday, but whether it's a dusting or something more substantial is very much up for grabs. The former is more how 12z GFS sees it, the latter was what 06z looked like. You need consistency before confidence.
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nozawaonsen, the cold weather and snow that's forecast for North West England on friday, what's the chances of this actually happening?
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18z brought snow to the Alps on Friday and eastern Alps for the rest of the weekend. Continues to be one to watch.
Ricklovesthepowder, not too sure which forecast you are referring to? It looks quite a short, sharp cold spell for the UK on Friday, snow most likely in Scotland, possibly down to lower levels in other parts of the country, but again a great deal of uncertainty about that.
Anyway, happy first day of advent to all.
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Can a Mod/Admin please sticky this thread and un-sticky last season's
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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looks like a big hit for the Arlberg 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I don't really know what the WRF forecast is, but I like it 
The wigglies are still showing relatively low correlation, but they've pretty much all decided it's going to get cold, probably very cold, and all have some snow at some point. Might scrap the plans to take my piste skis then...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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LWD Tirol's take on the current weather set up.
"Weather in general: a high pressure zone with its center over the British Isles is the determining force in western and central Europe. Classic inversion conditions in the Alps: cold on the ground, significantly milder in the mountains."
red 27, still a bit unsure about this weekend's snow at present. Looks 20cm+ but still not getting a really consistent feel for it yet though.
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nozawaonsen, yes indeed - slight shifts in that high off Ireland seem to mean big differences as to how strong any northerly blast will be this weekend.
The inversion conditions are unpleasant (in snow pack terms). Good pictures on Steve Angus's blog on here. Hopefully they'll be able to turn the Tarentaise cannon(s) back on on Thursday
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Good job there are much colder temperatures on the way - freezing level seems to be over 3000m from east to west today.  Must be a glorious day to be skiing in Tignes, though.
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Poster: A snowHead
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really? its been around the zero degree range in chamonix all day ?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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eddiethebus, it's an inversion - cold in the valley, warmer up top.
Noz did explain it all to us once but tbh it went over my head (not hard)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yeah, was around 0º in the valleys here today too. Warmer than it has been on the hill but still around -5ºC I'd guess.
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when the air is still (typical in high pressure situations, as now) the cold air rolls down and sits in the bottoms of the valleys; sometimes you can see the frost line on the trees - high branches black, trunk and lower branches covered in frost, often freezing fog. Grenoble fills up with pollution. Chamonix Meteo says inversion towards 1500m. It's quite common for the valleys to be a lot colder than higher up, especially in those deep valleys which don't get much sun in winter; no fun down there at all!
Inversions don't only happen in the Alps. The orchards in the Vale of Evesham are typically on the sloping valley sides, to make them less susceptible to frosts.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Must be a glorious day to be skiing in Tignes, though. |
Yes it was. Had my first lunch on a sunny terrace this season. 
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pam w,
Most of the orchards in the Vale of Evesham have been scrubbed up. Not much left now. Mores the Pity. I am a Pershore Boy!
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This morning in Schladming -6, top of local ski hill +6 - made for lovely early morning ski. Piste conditions great top to bottom, even the man made stuff was soft and fun. Forecast seem to have downgraded snowfall for the coming weekend, hmm my last chance for a cheeky ski for a while, will be glued to forecast for next couple of days to decide what to do.
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Mark1863, My parents lived in Peopleton for the last 40 years of their lives. There are still some orchards about - and my sister, who lives in Bishampton, has plums, damsons, pears and walnuts in her garden.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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End of the week still not easy to call. Getting much colder and windy on Friday. Some snow, but not clear how much.
Here's SLF
"Outlook through Friday, 6.12.2013
Thursday will be mostly sunny, but colder again. On Friday, some snow will fall in the north, even at low altitudes. The northerly wind will be strong. The south will be sunny at times. The avalanche danger may increase a little on Friday in the northern regions in particular."
And LWD Tirol
"Weather in general: a high pressure zone continues its influence in Central Europe, remaining dominant until Thursday. As of Friday a northwestern current will bring snowfall down to low lying areas. Mountain weather today: unbroken sunshine, outstanding visibility, a few feathery clouds will move in from the north. Above the inversion, above-freezing temperatures up to nearly 3000 m. Temperature at 2000 m: 7 degrees, at 3000 m: -1 degree. Light, in some places brisk, winds from varying directions."
Beyond next weekend looks like a spell of average to mild temperatures for the Alps and dry. Very mild in Scotland.
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OMG will there be any (more) snow!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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peanuthead, no. Never. We're all dooooomed.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, starting to look dry well into December now. Of course will change on forthcoming runs, but I would rather see some wiggles and cold temperatures...
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
we are going to see a similar season to 2010/11 when it snowed early December and then very little and it was unusually warm for months!
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come, come! It was neither "the start of another fantastic season" because it snowed a few weeks ago nor the start of a terrible one because it doesn't look like snowing much in the next week or so. The fact that the models seem to be flopping about a lot - one moment warm, the next moment cold, is presumably a Good Thing? We can make some judgements on the season from later in March. For the time being we are just waiting on the weather, week by week.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Doesn't look too great for the Sued Tirol till mid Dec. - fairly mild and dry 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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pam w,
I know there are some orchards left. But the Vale is nothing like it was when I was growing up in the 60s.
That High needs to break up. Would like to see another significant fall before my arrival in the Alps on the 20th.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The map below shows snow pack in Switzerland as a % of normal.
http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/schneekarten/hsm/index_EN
Being so early in the season it's subject to greater fluctuations than later when the snowpack is more mature, but as of last Thursday there's a swathe across the centre of the country with above average snow depths.
It looks like there is more to come on Friday morning primarily in the eastern Alps which look to me like they could see 20cm+ in places
Friday 0600 http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions®ion=CE§ion=precip&forecast=Snow&time=60#model
A fair amount of snow in Scotland tomorrow, but substantially warmer than average temperatures taking hold next week.
Next week in the Alps looks generally milder than average and dry. Should be sunny in the mountains.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
Gutted things looked to be shaping up nicely however I am now getting concerned we are going to see a similar season to 2010/11 when it snowed early December and then very little and it was unusually warm for months! I know it's too early to know how Jan Feb ect will be but this dam high pressure is worrying
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Yes, very worrying. At this rate they will be planting orchards on the Grande Motte glacier by Christmas.
Perhaps you'd be best cancelling your skiing holiday as a precautionary measure...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ok was on a downer last night when i posted that
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harri20000, but looks like no chance of snow for long forseeable future so you are definitely screwed for this year
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I'll be over in the alps in about six weeks time. I presume anything could happen by then. Is it normal to have a bit of a dry and / or warm period at this time of year?
I know I'm a worrier but this is a big trip for me with long haul travel and three weeks of skiing involved.
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As I aimed to demonstrate with the SLF chart above, for a significant part of the Alps snowfall so far this season has been above average.
Weather patterns come and go throughout the season. It looks like we are going to have a sunny settled period from next week for a while. There is nothing abnormal about this. Rather the changing weather is perfectly normal.
Whilst I mean no offence to anyone it is simply misleading and unhelpful to suggest that this is somehow shaping up to be a poor (or amazing) season based on either a relatively bountiful start for many or a perfectly normal period of high pressure to come. It may end up being a good season it may end up being less good. But how the conditions will look in six weeks let alone five months is impossible to tell at this point.
In the short term looks like some fresh snow tomorrow mainly in central and eastern parts of the Alps as "Xaver" reaches the Alps. Nothing to suggest anything especially substantial in terms of snow (despite some hyping), looks about 10-20cm worth to me, though the storm could cause more damage further north with some very high winds.
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FAQ
I know it's too early to know how Jan Feb ect will be but this dam high pressure is worrying 