 Poster: A snowHead
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| denfinella wrote: |
Meteo Alpes reckons over the next few days the (natural) snow layer in the northern French Alps will be preserved above 1900m, and will melt completely below 1500. Between 1500m & 1900m - depends on the sector / aspect etc.
So shouldn't be any issues (other than avalanche risk) in places like Tignes. |
Hopefully … but Bergfex are showing a FL of 2,400 meters for the Western Alps today and tomorrow …
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@franga, yep so will still be some melting at 2000m, but hopefully not back to green?
Mind you, the latest GFS run has the 850hPa temp (approx. 1500m) for Chamonix right up to 10°C, which is higher than previous runs - not welcome.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The warm spell is pretty short lived i think (though Tuesday accompanied by some torrential rain)?
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Quiet a week ahead , Chamonix Meteo
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2023 AT 11:00
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12 TO FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17
GENERAL SITUATION AND EVOLUTION
BAD WEATHER INSTALLED • The stormy depressions follow one another at a steady pace from the S from Greenland to Eastern Europe. • They will still produce several episodes of bad weather until the end of the week, accompanied by strong winds in the mountains. • The occlusion that approached the region last night is moving away to the east, but the activity will remain sufficient for the accumulation in 24 hours to reach, depending on the exposures, 50 to 70 cm of heavy snow above 2500 m, in a situation of marked and dangerous redoux.
THIS SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2023
Bad weather - heavy snowfall in the middle mountains, worked by strong to stormy winds
Cloudiness: covered - ceiling around 2200-2400 m - temporarily blocked around 1300 m - sunshine: 0%
Continuous precipitation, moderate to fairly strong in the morning and at the end of the day - rain-snow limit around 1300 m, rising around 1800-1900 m in the afternoon - amount of snow around 2200 m by night: 35-50 cm
Winds according to altitude
in the valley: SW or variable low - temporarily moderate
in the middle mountains: W dominant irregular - often moderate to strong
in high mountains: WNW -> NW gust of wind - temporarily strong gust of wind
Temperatures in the valley:
mini, +1°C
max, +6°C
Altitude of isotherms:
0°C, 1600 -> 2300 m
-10°C, 3000 -> 3500 m
NEXT NIGHT
Bad weather - marked weather - heavy showers - very strong winds at altitude
Cloudiness: very cloudy in cover, ceiling in mid-mountain - iso 0°C temporarily around 2800 m
Continuous precipitation, often moderate to strong - rain-snow limit rising around 2300-2500 m - possible amount of snow around 2800 m: 30-60 cm
Wind at altitude: NW gust of wind - temporarily strong gust of wind
Minimum temperature in the valley: +4°C
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13
Very agitated - the redoux increases - heavy precipitation - possible thinning - gust of wind in the mountains
Cloudy: overcast in the early morning and evening - very cloudy to cloudy with fugitive clearings at midday - sunshine: 15%
Heavy rainfall in the early morning, low mid-day, moderate in the afternoon - rain-snow limit around 2500-2600 m in the afternoon - considerable amount of heavy snow in the middle mountains
Wind at altitude: NW gust of wind -> WNW strong gust of wind
Temperatures in the valley:
mini, +3°C
max, +6°C
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14
Very bad weather - precipitation is still strengthening in a very mild atmosphere for the season
Cloudiness: overcast - sunshine: 0%
Heavy precipitation possible throughout the day - rain-snow limit around 2800 m, decreasing in the evening
Wind at altitude: W gust of wind - temporarily strong gust of wind or storm
Temperatures in the valley: stationary, much higher than seasonal normals
EVOLUTION UNTIL FRIDAY 17
WEDNESDAY: very cloudy with risk of showers at dawn - likely clear skies in the afternoon - temperatures without major changes - possible storm in the mountains
THURSDAY: agitated, fœhn in the morning, before marked cooling - moderate rain in the valley in the afternoon, snow around 1700 m, falling towards 1200 m - gust of wind in the mountains
FRIDAY: bad weather - violent storm at altitude, even hurricane - moderate precipitation, mainly in the morning, rain-snow limit in the valley
Reliability of the forecast:
pretty good until Tuesday - mediocre for the rest.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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No because they store snow over the summer on the short red run at Resterkogel to claim they are the first non glacier resort to open...
What is rare is that it's usually just 71 that's open, but 71a (a detour) is open. Lots of people wanting to use a single slow 4 man chair
Looking at the webcams, there seems to be cover of sorts on the rest of the runs served by the 4 chair lifts at Pass Thurn
https://map.kitzski.at/de/winter/71-resterkogel.html (click the camera on the map, can't find direct link to the camera)
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"temperatures above seasonal normal" in chamonix. Too soon to get excited.
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Rain this week (Europe).
Snow returning the weekafter.
Standby for a wave of avalanche tales.
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Meteo-Alpes forecasts heavy rain up to 2900-3100m in the NW Alps tomorrow, along with a risk of flooding, mudslides and wet snow avalanches. Hopefully that won't result in too much damage, e.g. like the big rainfall event around last New Year that washed away part of the newish Gabelou chair in Chatel.
The rest of this week looks fairly unsettled and still a little mild (though not as mild as tomorrow).
Next week currently looks cooler across all of the Alps (cross-model support) with average or below average temperatures for the time of year. Could be explained by the tendency for models to revert to the mean beyond 10 days or so, but still worth keeping an eye on.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Freezing level in the European Alps hovering today around 3000-3500m.
Like summer again.
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Looking at the webcams - Pleney in Morzine looks like its taken some damage - and even Le Lac in Tignes looks like some also, but not to the same extent - lets get thru today and hope all the good work isn't destroyed
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Whitegold, you must have really poo-poo summers 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Well one thing for certain the artificial snow reservoirs will be full to the brim for when they fire up the cannons
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It’s raining up to 2800m which is going to thoroughly soak the snowpack and cause lots of wet snow avalanches. Fingers crossed there’s enough fresh snow on Friday with the colder temps to cover up the mess! Otherwise it’s back to the pistes 
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You know it makes sense.
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Rain at 3200m, on and off, at Tignes. Tropical in the valleys.
Morzine, is, unsurprisingly, wet as elefantfresh mentioned above
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
Otherwise it’s back to the pistes
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Middle class problems 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Though not sure I'd really want to bother with Tignes... only about the same as 10 Milton Keynes snow domes...
"At Tignes, there will be 1,300 metres of slopes available for skiing"
(yeah, of course it will be a typo...)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Is the season over before it has even begun? Well the short answer is no, and the long answer is a definite no, with the Hunga tunga El Nino -QBO.
The outlook is leaning more east based than the previous pattern as the azores high returns to the east atlantic, disrupting the month long westerly onslaught into UK/France. A mid atlantic ridge will turn the flow N-NW instead of this SW muck we have at the moment, so drier and cooler for NW europe in general, which shouldn't be hard to achieve no matter what happens 
Friday should see snow along the northern alps, maybe 20-40cm in places, ECM ensembles look good, as does the GFS snow chart.
 
Another warm weekend ahead, as 850 temps head back up to +8 or 9 for hopefully the last time until next april. Low odds, but one can dream.
Then another cool down from 20-21st onwards, which has potential to last more than a few days.
Looking at next Tues on the Op's, it's not hugely snowy though, vague UK high, north sea low, so good for cold air to the alps....but ppn might be weak or too far east.
   
The mean anomaly charts for the same day show broad consensus, with ECM the most potent, always a good thing, but a compromise most likely.
  
At day 10, around the 24th, it's a similar story with ECM best, while GFS and GEM are too far east. But we often see this model bias, so hopefully the pattern backs west in the days ahead.
  
Some bonus Op charts way out in FI, this is what we want to see cropping up.....but just for illustration now, GFS 06z and JMA 00z, atlantic ridge towards greenland, purple polar vortex lobes down the eastern flank, 24-25th.
 
EC46 for the next 3 weeks holds plently of promise......week 20th good, week 27th going east, week 4th dec also good. Obviously the latter 2 will move about.
  
Further into Dec, the signal for strat warming has weakened, or at best been pushed back. Quite a strong strat PV spinning for the next 3 weeks, but the trop PV is what matters more, and that is staying disrupted in the short term, ie not coupled. ECM charts show the potential slowing of winds and corresponding warming at 10 hpa into mid Dec.
 
And finally the Nov update from the seasonal models. Just showing the blended 8 model output here, in line with back loaded multi expert view, Dec meh, Jan more NW'ly flow, Feb more northerly.
  
That's it .....I'll be back to the alps in a week or so, I demand more snow....over to you guys.
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Awesome as always, @polo - enjoy your week “off”!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, Have a nice week - I'll do some snow dances in your absence
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Great update Polo
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@polo,
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and the long answer is a definite no
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I'm struggling to recollect the last time I heard a weather expert using the word 'definite' in relation to climate but delighted to accept it as gospel 
Thanks @polo
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A question, which medium range weather centre/computer does BBC Weather use for it’s European forecasts for example of selected Austrian locations?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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BBC weather is Meteo France I believe. Therefore theirs?
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| twoodwar wrote: |
| BBC weather is Meteo France I believe. Therefore theirs? |
Thanks, I remember them crediting the Meteo Group.
The reason I ask is the BBC MeteoGroup forecast for next Tuesday onwards looks promising for snow and lower temperatures for their selected towns. When you take into account the altitude of many ski resorts/pistes.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Best conditions on the upper slopes
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
BBC weather is Meteo France I believe. Therefore theirs?
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no, BBC weather is meteogroup now DTN, this is not the same company as meteo-france.
they reference ecmwf as long term forecast plus in house models
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I thought I'd read somewhere that there are only really two base global models for weather forecasting.
Is that bollox? If so, how many are there?
Or to put another way - how many suppliers are there to the numerous TV, press, social media, app forecasts that are available?
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You know it makes sense.
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| hobbiteater wrote: |
| Quote: |
BBC weather is Meteo France I believe. Therefore theirs?
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no, BBC weather is meteogroup now DTN, this is not the same company as meteo-france.
they reference ecmwf as long term forecast plus in house models |
Thanks that makes sense, I know the French are 'confident', but I wasn't aware of them having a super-computer of their own modelling forecasts for the BBC and ZAMG.ac.at!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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And good forecast for the weekend
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Poster: A snowHead
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Things largely as expected.
Lots of snow last week. Lots of rain this week. Lots more snow next week.
In today's global boiling era, rain is now a fact of skiing life in Europe.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Uncertainty is certainly a fact of life
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Alaska (Anchorage) seeing a month's snowfall in 2 days.
El Nino doing its thing.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Not seeing a lot of activity out there today - seems to be a bit of a lull
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| elefantfresh wrote: |
| Not seeing a lot of activity out there today - seems to be a bit of a lull |
Everybody's gone white water rafting ...
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Thats not even slightly funny franga - hahahaha! We sure dont want any more of that rain.
Its a real love/hate time of year - so excited for the upcoming season but so anxious watching all the weather reports and cams
Another full month for us before we go so I'm not concerned....yet!
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4 weeks till we go for the opening week of the season. No snow forecast for the next week across the north West alpes. That only leaves 3 weeks for it to snow or for it to cool down enough to run the cannons. Still hopefull
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Certainly some snow forecast for the Jungfrau area tomorrow,Murren open at Birg this weekend
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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There are (today) ~20 ski resorts open across 6 countries in Europe.
There are (today) ~20 ski resorts open in the US and Canada.
Europe is roughly 1% open.
North America is roughly 3% open.
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It IS early though I think - mid November, nobody is expecting a huge number of resorts open - and "open" often means just a few km's or 2 to 3 slopes - still, I'll take that instead of working.
If we were having the same conversation in mid December, I think we'd all be a little more worried.
It only takes 2-3 days of decent snow and a whole load of resorts will open up - we do torture ourselves so...
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FAQ
