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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Flew out of Munich this morning. Definite chill in the air. Snow is coming.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
There has been a lot of snow in the last couple days in Hintertux. All plans for gate training were abandoned so my son and the others in his club have been doing a fair bit of free skiing. The Head Coach summed it up well tonight:-

Quote:
It’s one thing to ski well on bluebird days, it’s another to ski well in weather like this.
Adversity is teaching us additional skills, training in this weather ingrains confidence that you can do it (and you will) no matter the conditions....


It's looking a bit more promising for the rest of the week although it is still going to be blowy.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Currently looks like a couple of cold blasts on the way for the Alps. One this weekend followed by another about a week later.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Currently looks like a couple of cold blasts on the way for the Alps. One this weekend followed by another about a week later.


As in the weekend 4-5/11?
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That’s what it looks like at present. Temperatures falling again from around 03 November, but obviously that is still some way away so could easily change.
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20-40+ cos from St Christoph am Arlberg up today. Nothing in St Anton at village level.

Not bad conditions for the first ski tour of the season!

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@clarky999, good work. Pre season is shaping up nicely. Will be back in Tirol in few weeks.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
4 weeks and counting for me!
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........Just the 3 months to wait now until the decent skiing arrives Laughing

Lets hope winter comes before that this year.
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4 weeks for me too... snow on many of the Amade mountians snowHead
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@clarky999, Looks great but how many rocks did you hit?!

Think i'd be a bit nervous about ski touring in October!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@musehead, I hit one, my mate none! We started at ~1750m and skinned up what's normally a blue piste, so pretty safe. I've skitoured in closed resorts every Oct/Nov since 2012 though - 30cms on grass is enough, but you've got to be quick before it melts (today is already too late).
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Early Season Weather Lays the Foundation for Winter Snowpack Stability

http://sleddermag.com/early-season-weather-winter-snowpack/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Temperatures looking cooler and snowfall amounts greater in the eastern Alps.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
OT but I see wepowder have gone subscription. More than happy to pay for it but not sure the business model is great - they're suggesting paying for access to 14 day forecasts, but 6 day forecasts are still free. Surely they should do it the other way around? I mean a 14 day forecast is pointless, its only the 3 day you'll be interested in?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I would not recommend paying for a fourteen day forecast. It is sod all use beyond about 5-6 days unless you have access to the medium range probability forecasts from ECMWF.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
8611 wrote:
OT but I see wepowder have gone subscription. More than happy to pay for it but not sure the business model is great - they're suggesting paying for access to 14 day forecasts, but 6 day forecasts are still free. Surely they should do it the other way around? I mean a 14 day forecast is pointless, its only the 3 day you'll be interested in?

Heaps of weather companies do this. It's a point of difference. Most forecasts are in the 7 day range that accuracy is at it's best. So Morris wants to make people feel like he can provide a forecast, that is beyond that 7 day limit. And making people pay for it, makes it seem that a lot of effort has gone into it, so you can rely on it. It's a lot more about marketing and him trying to make a quick buck to pay for 'Google's supercomputers'. One thing that irritates me is his name 'Meteo Morris'. I have no proof of him being a Met, and lying about it just seems very deceptive.

I asked him on his site to tell me what model he uses, haven't received a response yet.

And even if it is ECMWF, why would you pay for it? The main model is free from a number of outlets now with plenty of parameters, and even the 15 day model is free to access now.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Morris and wePowder is an excellent service, and I quite understand him wanting to finally monetise it (though I think Salomon have been sponsoring it to some degree?) as he's certainly put a lot of time and resources into putting the site together. I agree with @mcspreader that a 14 day forecast is likely to be all but worthless, but OTOH hand €2 a month is very reasonable, and I think Morris does an excellent job of breaking down the info and applying to to regions and particularly resorts in a way that is very easy for skiers to use (even if he does tend to be optimistic about amounts of snow due).
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yep his new website is great, with many more smaller resorts included and amazing detail on the maps...even the webcam replays are slick. Really appreciate his willingness to explain weather patterns as well.

Speaking of....big disappointment to see high pressure remain stubbornly in charge over most of Europe, despite the efforts of the polar vortex lobe over scandinavia at present. We've seen at least 3 attempts by the models to get northerlies and cold air into central europe but euro high pressure block is big and strong enough to keep pushing the troughs east.
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Okay I confirmed my theory that wePowder uses WRF for mesoscale range, which is good, and GFS for long range which is bad. He has increased the resolution too. EC is obviously better though.
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Okay I confirmed my theory that wePowder uses WRF for mesoscale range, which is good, and GFS for long range which is bad. He has increased the resolution too. EC is obviously better though.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@langball, ok for eastern Alps Neh Neh
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
What part of the alps is the sela ronda?
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scotspikey wrote:
What part of the alps is the sela ronda?


The Dolomites - Sella Massif
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forgive the probable ignorance, but this sounds like Snowforecast 2 'the return' (Wepowder)Is it different?
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extremerob wrote:
scotspikey wrote:
What part of the alps is the sela ronda?


The Dolomites - Sella Massif


Is that eastern alps or central. I get confused you see.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Eastern Alps
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, don't upset my french mates



The only good patterns for the south and west remain in FI - new feature on metrociel showing the ensemble spread of freeze levels.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@extremerob, @scotspikey, not so relevsnt for the Sela Ronda, the south side looks relatively dry and in any case at this point in the season thus is only really relevant for open glacier resorts or those areas where you can poach early lines if you live nearby ( a la @clarky999)
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I think he's superb and would subscribe but surely he should be monetizing - the three day forecast for where exactly to go to get the best conditions? Build it up as the storms come in and then sell the detail. Anywho hope its a success for him as he's put a huge effort in ....
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
SLF yesterday evening on weather outlook for Swiss Alps.

”Weather outlook through Saturday, 28 October

On Friday evening, the snowfall is expected to come to an end in northern regions. The snowfall level will descend to 1600 m. On Saturday it will be predominantly sunny. The zero-degree level in western and in southern regoins will be at approximately 3000 m, in eastern regions at 2000 m. In high alpine regions and in general in the south, a strong-velocity, intermittently storm-strength northwesterly wind will be blowing, which is expected to slacken off somewhat in western regions during the course of the day.

Overall, from Friday morning until the termination of precipitation on Friday night the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated above approximately 2500 m:

- northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Oberland to Liechtenstein, northern Grisons: 10 to 20 cm; in the Urner and Glarner Alps as much as 30 cm;

- remaining sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, central Grisons: 5 to 10 cm;

- remaining regions of Switzerland: only a few centimeters; in the furthermost southern regions, no snow whatsoever.

Outlook

On Sunday, snowfall is expected in northern regions more than anywhere else. The snowfall level will descend to 1500 m. In the other regions, skies will be partially overcast. In the furthermost south it will be predominantly sunny. On Monday in northern regions, skies will frequently still be overcast, in the other regions it will become increasingly sunny.
On Sunday, the danger of dry-snow avalanches is not expected to change significantly. On Monday, the danger will decrease, but only slowly on north-facing slopes above approximately 2500 m. On Monday, furthermore, moist-snow sluffs are possible in isolated cases on steep, south-facing slopes. This applies in particular to those regions which have fresh snow.”
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
20-30cms snow heading towards Hintertux tomorrow.

Snowline dropping well below 1000m (though snowfall at that altitude more like 5cm).

Violent winds.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I'm in Oberösterreich atm, and the wind is vicious! Fair bit of snow fell on the mountains yesterday too.



Glad I put my winter tyres on again yesterday as driving home tomorrow could get funky!
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Winds of 150kmh in the mountains tomorrow. Strongest around Hochkönig and the Dachstein. Men’s downhill at Sölden must be a little doubtful.
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Les 2 Alpes glacier closed this week and not open for fall skiing.

Lack of snow and too many holes in the ice.

It's a disaster for the resort.
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Sölden Racing cancelled due to the weather (high winds, not lack of snow).

https://www.facebook.com/fisalpine/videos/10159410901455702/
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, looks like it is raining too.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Bennyboy1, Nope. Snowline is 2000m dropping to below 1000m today. Maybe it’s just the early morning gloom you can see?
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Feuerkogel (1600m) has recorded gusts up to 166km/h this morning.
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Latest gusts at Feuerkogel measured at 179km/h.
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