nozawaonsen, The forecasters down here (Chiemgau/Tirol) seem to be forecasting Snowmaggedon this weekend. Real brass monkey temperatures right now but it will warm up tomorrow to around 0 degrees and the snow will start falling Friday night throughout the whole weekend. Interesting take on things!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Samerberg Sue, certainly looks like some snow this weekend. Here's WRF for 0600.
On Friday in northern regions it will be quite sunny to begin with above the high fogbanks. During the afternoon, clouds will move in from the northwest. On Saturday widespread snowfall is expected down to low altitudes. The avalanche danger will incrementally decrease on Friday, then increase again on Saturday due to the snowfall."
So worth keeping an eye on.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
Given snowcover in the Alps is good for the time of year and temperatures look generally colder than average I can't see much to be too concerned about.
Meteo France report 30 - 50 cms at 1800 - 2000m in the northern French Alps. Nice for the end of November, not so nice if there's no change in 3 weeks, when the cover will be reduced significantly if there's little or no new snowfall. But the cold temperatures will no doubt see a lot of snowmaking going on - having hardly had to turn on the blowers for the whole of last season, resorts will be using them pretty heavily for the next few weeks, I guess. A Christmas of thin snow cover but plenty of sunshine would do me very nicely, thanks.
Not sure there's really much to suggest 3 weeks of no change (at this stage).
Here's this evening's ECM.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Not sure there's really much to suggest 3 weeks of no change
indeed - I'm not suggesting there is, but neither is there much to justify the "epoch making start to the season" stuff either. As is absolutely normal towards the end of November, it's anybody's guess what the conditions will be like in most resorts at Christmas (though the highest altitudes are looking reasonably bomb-proof).
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
thunderer, no, I'm not, really. I like to think I am realistic, neither fretting nor wetting myself with excitement about what the snow will be like at Christmas because it's too soon to tell. Personally I would almost always vote for sunshine and thin snow over waist deep powder and nil visibility. And I enjoy days in the mountain when I don't ski as much as the days when I do. But those weeks on end of anticyclone can get a bit samey.
After all it is free
After all it is free
I'd agree with pam_w. Not really a mega start. I am sure that the place I went to last year (Risoul) had more snow last year in late Nov./early Dec than this year. Lots of snow cannon on all over the place, looking at some of the webcams. Big piles of snow being formed in some resorts, just ready to spread out for the start of the season, I'd guess.
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Er hang about. Where did this "epoch making start" quote come from? All I said is snowcover is good for the time of year. It is and there is no sign of it being dry for the next three weeks.
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pam w, never go to Japan then!
I've been twice and barely seen the peaks, but have had deep pow and awesome skiing everyday!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
ECM sticking to it's cold guns for 07 December (GFS does too, but it's op run then goes off on a bit of an extreme cold outlier so less sure about that).
Nothing extremely snowy that I can see for now, but there should be some fresh (10cm+) in the Alps on Saturday. In the short term temperatures look like being cool over the weekend before warming up in the first half of next week and then it looks like dropping quite steeply on 05 December and again 07 December with prospects of further snowfall around that time.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I can't see much in the way of fronts coming in from the west though with that big persistent high pressure in the atlantic just west of France. That does look like a nice little low moving down from the north east to the mediterranean though, could be interesting with it sucking up moist air off the med.
Weather models very consistent with idea of major, widespread snow for Alps weekend of 7th/8th December. One to keep an eye on!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looks like that will be very welcome as next week now looks a bit too warm my taste, although not a prolonged thaw
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I guess that depends on how high you go.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Or how far to the east you can go! -16°C here last night and snow forecast at our way too low for snow 800m and lower for the next 3 days! Only a slight disagreements in the amounts expected.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
From my novice reading of the models I think its bit to distant to start getting excited about snow on the 7th/8th. The last few GFS runs have indicated the potential but this swings from lots of snow to a light dusting ! its too far in the future to have any confidence in volumes yet. I will start to get excited maybe 4 days in advance if it is showing on the models then as for the warm spell, this does not appear to be for very long maybe a couple of days, then is it looks like it will get cold cold cold I will look to Nozawaonsen who i am sure will let us know what is going on
On Friday night and Saturday morning some snowfall down to low altitudes is expected widespread in northern regions. During the afternoon the first bright intervals will appear. In southern regions conditions will remain dry and it will turn significantly colder. The wind will be blowing at light to moderate strength and shift from northwesterly to northeasterly. The avalanche danger is expected to increase somewhat in northern regions."
Main beneficiaries look like being eastern Switzerland and Western Austria.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Met Office contingency planners is slightly favouring a -NAO for winter. That tends to suggest a colder than average winter, with snowfall heavier in the southern Alps, but that's very broad brush. Tomorrow's Express appears to be deliberately misrepresenting this, not exactly a surprise.
"The most useful indicator of synoptic type during the winter months is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which in its positive mode results in stormy winters across the UK with generally milder-than-normal temperatures. A negative NAO is mostly associated with fewer storms than normal, a pre-dominance of high pressure and generally lower-than-normal temperatures as outgoing long-wave radiation overnight is greater than normal."
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Tomorrow's Express appears to be deliberately misrepresenting this, not exactly a surprise.
"The BIG freeze: Icy blast to last 3 months as Britain is set for 'worst winter in history'"
I love the caption
"Scenes like this beside the River Avon in Wiltshire will be all too common over the coming months "
on a picture of a slight frosting on the grass beside water that is, very much, just water.
Well I hope so, looks lovely (albeit a bit milder than we're used to here)
After all it is free
After all it is free
Just caught the end of the French weather. Definitely a weather front from next Friday with 'flocons de neige' and tres bas' all mentioned in the same sentence!
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howiet, 'flocons' means a few flakes - a cameo dusting...
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They said that last week and we had 20cms!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
howiet, good on 'em, crafty bugs
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I see the models are mostly in agreement for Scotland getting a fair dusting into next weekend.
fingers crossed
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Where did this "epoch making start" quote come from?
nozawaonsen, it wasn't you, it was various other comments on other threads. Going a bit over the top.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snowing this morning:)
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
00z run is a bit depressing, warmer and dry right out into FI
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
red 27 wrote:
00z run is a bit depressing, warmer and dry right out into FI
Always with the negative waves red 27, always with the negative waves.
By Saturday midday, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are expected:
- Northern flank of the Alps: 10 to 20 cm, the heaviest snowfall is anticipated in the central and eastern regions
- Valais, northern and central Grisons: 5 to 10 cm
- Ticino and southern Grisons: predominantly dry"
ECM still looks cold for next weekend, GFS less so this morning. Should be some lovely sunshine to enjoy the Alps in over the next week.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen, fair point
Always the same for me at this time of year - too much worrying and over-analysis. First day of my first trip it completely evaporates (so 2 weeks to go and I'll stop annoying people with my pessimistic posts )
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The winter forecast for the UK from The Weather Outlook is out , Brian Gaze is more often right than wrong and doesn't make outlandish claims , Colder and drier than average seems to be the overall view
chrisb, Yes, not liking the look of that at all. Although the control and high res aren't in much agreement. Mmmm.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
chrisb wrote:
nozawaonsen, mid dec looking warm though
At this stage it's not possible to say with any confidence at all. A couple of days ago the GFS op run for two weeks from now was looking very cold, now it's looking milder than average. To be honest I wouldn't take it that seriously, still less be particularly anxious about it.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Temperatures in the Alps warming up in the first half of the week before tumbling up to 25C by the weekend.
Here's ECM for Sunday.
ECM looks to make more of the snow bringing potential than GFS. One to watch.
Off into FI a real spread although this morning the GFS op is nowhere near as mild as yesterday's runs.
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nozawaonsen, Could you remind me what FI stands for again?
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
-16°C here last night and snow forecast at our way too low for snow 800m and lower for the next 3 days! Only a slight disagreements in the amounts expected. 
reading of the models I think its bit to distant to start getting excited about snow on the 7th/8th. The last few GFS runs have indicated the potential but this swings from lots of snow to a light dusting ! 
its too far in the future to have any confidence in volumes yet. I will start to get excited maybe 4 days in advance if it is showing on the models then 
)
