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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I've been getting nice hoar patterns on the roof of my car by early evening in tropical UK - not the flakey kind obviously.

Anyway - back on topic - is Europe basically farked for off piste this season or are we simply in a prolonged delayed start cycle to the natural snow season. I'm not talking about whether pockets of great exist in places but whether a) we have a realistic chance of the sort of multiple snow cycles that lay down a base that makes offpiste sustainable in rocky terrain and b) not be scuppered by weak layers like the current surface hoar as well as the early season stuff. I'm due out to Verbier next weekend and can't say I'm particularly stoked at the moment.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Likewise, in PdS next week and 3 days guiding booked with guides in an attempt to explore the off piste more in "peak season". Not very hopeful!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Dave of the Marmottes, Yes, understandable but I suppose not 4 weeks ago piste goers like me would have gladly paid in blood for todays conditions....I'll comment again depending on what this Föhn does next week?
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@Dashed, @Dave of the Marmottes, guide I was with last week basically said if you don't tour then you're not going to get any decent lift assisted off piste, end of story.

And even then can't really be a guarantee.

And I was in La Grave yesterday visiting friends (not skiing) and pretty bad there with numbers way down year on year even with the tunnel open.

Only positive is that once we get into a freeze / melt cycle we'll have enough to see us through but with some long walk outs in the valley rolling eyes
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davidof wrote:

The worry is that with no base high altitude rain will destroy the snow pack.
Friday/Saturday Massif Central and eastern Pyrenees should get blitzed than rain from Monday at altitude...


I did a tour of Luchon-Superbagneres today checking out the preparation for the main vacances. We have a very good base that is well packed (about 90cm) and even though we have plenty of snow the snow making teams have had the cannons running creating large stores of snow in important areas which they will let freeze and keep until needed.

Fortunately we still have a day or two before the mild weather arrives, and before then there is some more snow forecast and we will keep the cannons going.

For me it is the impact the rain may have on our clients skiing experience - which again hopefully we can avoid getting too wet Happy
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Weathercam wrote:
@Dashed, @Dave of the Marmottes, guide I was with last week basically said if you don't tour then you're not going to get any decent lift assisted off piste, end of story.


Yep, we're touring, but still not holding out much hope. Know the area pretty well, and doubt there'll be much off piste still around, especially after this foen has a blast through over the weekend. Fingers crossed for a second week of grey skies, low vis and copious quantities of snow coming in off the atlantic!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
It's snowing in Pila. Not a lot but it's snowing.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ski Guide wrote:


For me it is the impact the rain may have on our clients skiing experience - which again hopefully we can avoid getting too wet Happy


Yes blitzed with snow I meant rather than rain. As I said lower down you guys should be able to see out the mild spell without too much problem.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
@bigtuboflard, Careful with your use of the word 'climatic models'
There is five types of weather/climate models.
Mesoscale 0-4 days, Medium Term 4-15 days, Monthly Prediction 15-30 days
Then climatic models, Seasonal Prediction 1-12 Months, Decadal/Century Long models 1+ years.
I am guessing by climatic models you mean Seasonal Prediction? I am currently in the process of making a long term chart database, so if you have any contacts or suggestions, PM me please.
Yes sorry, meant near term models, not seasonal; very rusty on terminology, it's 20 years since I graduated so things have moved on significantly. I'll see if I can dig out any of the older models from back in the day as I'm sure there are modern iterations of them still.
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I think the off piste conditions and snow levels are getting a little overstated.
Just got back from 3 weeks split between Tignes, Les Arcs and St.Foy.
All the lower runs are struggling with rocks and grass - In all 3 resorts.
Up high on piste is fine and all groomer lovers will be quite happy above 2000.
Off piste - Forget it! 6 in our group took 2 seperate guided days, 1 in Tignes and 1 in St.Foy = Every single person had ski damage in some way. I don't mean a rock scrape, I mean a full core shot or edge blow out. The guide himself on the second day was just as frustrated as we were at the conditions. Now I'm fully aware this will raise much criticism from the usual chalet owners or those with vested interests. But I've told it how it actually was based on a group of experienced skiers who do this trip each season 2 or 3 times. Very little snow base, be careful, rent your skis!
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@poppyhill, where have they been overstated??
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I do get a bit frustrated when webcams etc are selectively turned away from south facing slopes! I saw some very dubious video of a resort in the pyrenees on Facebook where all the green surroundings had been grey-scaled out! I see both sides. For me I will go out and ski come what may, but prefer to make a judgement based on factual conditions and maybe some fingers in the air from this forum. I have been a bit frustrated this year thinking that some areas were much better than they were only to see the true extent of greenicity on posted photos on snowHead. For me, tell me the truth warts and all. For what it's worth I love the info on snowHead but I always add it to info gathered across many other sites. Well done everyone for their contributions.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Meteorologists, I'm off to Portes du Soleil this Saturday for a week. MF says rain. Any thoughts on the chance of snow in the next week?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
poppyhill wrote:
I think the off piste conditions and snow levels are getting a little overstated.
Just got back from 3 weeks split between Tignes, Les Arcs and St.Foy.
All the lower runs are struggling with rocks and grass - In all 3 resorts.
Up high on piste is fine and all groomer lovers will be quite happy above 2000.
Off piste - Forget it! 6 in our group took 2 seperate guided days, 1 in Tignes and 1 in St.Foy = Every single person had ski damage in some way. I don't mean a rock scrape, I mean a full core shot or edge blow out. The guide himself on the second day was just as frustrated as we were at the conditions. Now I'm fully aware this will raise much criticism from the usual chalet owners or those with vested interests. But I've told it how it actually was based on a group of experienced skiers who do this trip each season 2 or 3 times. Very little snow base, be careful, rent your skis!


Well to counter that, I've had 2 sessions off piste so far with @steve angus and had new skis on. Zero damage. A very small scrape on the exit from the piste perdue which was not done with Steve, but after I rewaxed it is un noticeable. We had up to 30 cms fresh off piste localised yesterday as well.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Point made (regarding overstating), 30 cms of fresh off piste yesterday .....?
Another man with measuring issues I presume?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
poppyhill wrote:
Point made (regarding overstating), 30 cms of fresh off piste yesterday .....?
Another man with measuring issues I presume?


Nope, not at all, pictures posted in the Val threads. Only in some gulleys, but was deffo there.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
endoman wrote:
poppyhill wrote:
Point made (regarding overstating), 30 cms of fresh off piste yesterday .....?
Another man with measuring issues I presume?


Nope, not at all, pictures posted in the Val threads. Only in some gulleys, but was deffo there.


I think you mean 30cm of powder-like snow, not fresh. Hence the confusion. The snow has destructured in the cold.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
endoman wrote:
poppyhill wrote:
Point made (regarding overstating), 30 cms of fresh off piste yesterday .....?
Another man with measuring issues I presume?


Nope, not at all, pictures posted in the Val threads. Only in some gulleys, but was deffo there.


I think you mean 30cm of powder-like snow, not fresh. Hence the confusion. The snow has destructured in the cold.


Well there was fresh stuff on the piste, and by the side, and no other tracks visible up on the Pays Desert and Steve had to cut a track in. Might have been wind blown etc, but it was great fun!
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@endoman, is correct as I reported in the Tignes thread yesterday. Just the micro climate up on the Pissallais Glacier. I specifically asked our off piste instructor (16 years in the E-K) whether it was fresh or wind blown - he said definitely fresh, it was too light to be windblown. He was as surprised as all of us.
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This is my point (again), somebody claims 30cms of fresh powder, another backs it up, somebody tweets it etc etc. So it becomes fact that we now have knee deep fresh powder (not).
I just text our guide in Tignes who we use each trip, he said you must all work for the tourist office! This was my point in the original post, over stating snow depths and conditions is a fools game.
Just call it as it is and people will thank you and welcome your posts of wisdom.
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@poppyhill, Just go over to the Tignes thread where I have posted for the last 4 years exactly what I find. Numerous sHs have bought me beers for my consistent reporting. You have now made 9 posts on here and tried to trash 2 reputations. This is not what sHs is about. Please stop. Your guide may be in Tignes but he was not in Le Fornet yesterday - period.

If you can climb out from behind your glasses of envy and read some of my posts you will see I have been highly critical of tourist office/ski school reporting on numerous occasions.

Sorry to all the sHs that know me for my terse reply, I am angry.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
chocksaway wrote:
I am angry.
Maybe, but I thought it was a reasonable post from a guy with a good reputation who I would trust given your posting history.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 26-01-17 22:16; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@chocksaway, i think you're over reacting a bit...
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Anyway looks like a dryish week for the majority of the alps next week on the latest model runs as opposed to the atlantic breakdown expected a few days ago..
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3-5 Feb looks great for Western and Southern Alps. Heaps of moisture, perhaps warm at the start.
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@northeastsurfer, I don't think anyone said an Atlantic breakdown next week was "expected." That would be to ignore the various caveats about confidence that were clearly and repeatedly spelled out. What does continue to look likely is an increasingly influence of the Atlantic as we push into February. Nevertheless given the persistence of high pressure over Europe it would be rash to count on this until we get closer in time.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@poppyhill, I think most people on this thread have been more than willing to "call it as it is," I'm surprised you think otherwise.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@chocksaway, Well said, bravo! Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
robboj wrote:
@Dave of the Marmottes, Yes, understandable but I suppose not 4 weeks ago piste goers like me would have gladly paid in blood for todays conditions....I'll comment again depending on what this Föhn does next week?


Oh I was skiing in some lovely stuff 4 weeks ago ( not in Europe) but to be honest I'm not actually that interested in dicing with crowds on the average Euro over trafficked no recent snow piste. I'd give up skiing if that's all there was.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
robboj wrote:
@Dave of the Marmottes, Yes, understandable but I suppose not 4 weeks ago piste goers like me would have gladly paid in blood for todays conditions....I'll comment again depending on what this Föhn does next week?


Oh I was skiing in some lovely stuff 4 weeks ago ( not in Europe) but to be honest I'm not actually that interested in dicing with crowds on the average Euro over trafficked no recent snow piste. I'd give up skiing if that's all there was.


Miserable git!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well that may be but I'm just saying it - I really love skiing and sacrifice a lot like summer holidays etc to do as much as possible. I don't enjoy scratching around on man made pistes with the world and his wife. Congrats if you do.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Brief period of Föhn should come to an end over weekend.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html

For snow the southern end of Piedmont should do well overnight into tomorrow with 20-30cms of snow at altitude.

Otherwise pretty dry. With temperatures heading to around seasonal average or a little above. Warm in the sun. Not unpleasant.

The tussle between the raging Atlantic and persistent European high pressure continues in FI with the threat/promise of more unsettled weather as we go into February.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:


The tussle between the raging Atlantic and persistent European high pressure continues in FI with the threat/promise of more unsettled weather as we go into February.


Yes unfortunately getting bullied back each day by that stubborn high. First week of Feb (FI) had looked hopeful for the South West Alps, now seems to be drying up........
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Looking not such a good season so far Sad
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chocksaway wrote:
Your guide may be in Tignes but he was not in Le Fornet yesterday - period.


There can be a big difference in weather between the Pays Desert and Tignes. Wayne Watson reckons about 5/10cm of snow "blow in by the wind" up at le Fornet. There was a lot of snow drifting up there yesterday according to the road authorities but some flakes coming over from Italy too I expect. Nothing registered in Tignes or Val d'Isere proper, maybe that is why there is some confusion?

Here is the col Pers yesterday


(c) Wayne Watson / Alpine Experience[/img]
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check out the View from Val thread, to clarify this issue over the "fresh" snow at Le Fornet & Pisallas.

Both Chocksway, Steve Angus & Endoman, skied the damn stuff and have pics.

I don t think chocksaway is over reacting......he has been posting here for years, daily about the goings on in Val & Tignes................and then has some 9 post wonder pop up and say he is talking shite............I d say his reply was quite constrained!!!!!
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Chris Brookes wrote:
Looking not such a good season so far Sad


Depends where you go... had a very good week in Ischgl two weeks ago just after a reasonable snow fall and it dumped as I left (fun driving to the airport - those winter tyres are so good, but good old BA couldn't land at Innsbruck for a few hours) so even better conditions the week after (last week) - pics of SkiClub doing a fair amount of off piste on FB.

I guess Austria has been luckier, but also they seem to have invested more in snow making than other countries
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
Well that may be but I'm just saying it - I really love skiing and sacrifice a lot like summer holidays etc to do as much as possible. I don't enjoy scratching around on man made pistes with the world and his wife. Congrats if you do.


I'm with you on that one.

So we're almost into the French school holidays, no snow on the horizon and a few days of foehn to contend with. With one real snowfall all season and a base of about 40-50cm it's going to be an interesting month.
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poppyhill wrote:
This is my point (again), somebody claims 30cms of fresh powder, another backs it up, somebody tweets it etc etc. So it becomes fact that we now have knee deep fresh powder (not).
I just text our guide in Tignes who we use each trip, he said you must all work for the tourist office! This was my point in the original post, over stating snow depths and conditions is a fools game.
Just call it as it is and people will thank you and welcome your posts of wisdom.


go see the pics in the Steve Angus thread.

When did 30cm become knee deep???????
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So the more you post the better your opinion ...... Empty vessels and noise etc.
If the wind blows a bit of old snow across some other old snow, then it's not really a foot of fresh is it?
On normal winters past (5 years plus ago) most people with vested interest would still describe snow fall fairly accurately. But now winter in most low to middle French resorts is defined by who has the most snow cannons and the largest P.R team. Of course up high it's still 30cm of fresh every single day, until your paying guests arrive. Call your therapist, drink more, but please don't become even angrier little boys. Thank you and goodnight.
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