 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, yeah thats exactly what I mean. That makes sense now thank you.
This is the 00Z version of the ensembles chart I referred to. Looking at the maps underlying those from about Tues/Wed onwards for the 850's yellow appears over France/Germany just to the north of the Alps which are still green and I had understood from somewhere in the past that was a clear indicator of a Föhn. Yeah it s a week away but have to admit its smack bang in the middle of probably the only week I'm getting this year.... Thus why all normality and usual objectivity about reliable timeframes etc have gone to pot.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@robboj Probably best to direct Wetterzentrale ensemble chart questions straight to Noza, those type of charts aren't really my cup of tea 
You are quite right about reliability. I think this European winter hasn't been normal at all and kind of confuses the charts a bit, as the atmosphere is so unpredictable at the moment. Europe hasn't really got into a winter pattern...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hi all,
I know a few of you have used or are using the GFS graph grabber i built a few years back on www.ski-finder.co.uk ... i have had to remove it's availability i'm afraid. Soz!
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Rain and high temperatures now for St Martin from Saturday onwards. Nrghhh 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| MoodyFFS wrote: |
Hi all,
I know a few of you have used or are using the GFS graph grabber i built a few years back on www.ski-finder.co.uk ... i have had to remove it's availability i'm afraid. Soz! |
Shame. That was my goto page for a peak at what was on the horizon! Do you know of an alternative for the Verbier/PdS/Chamonix area?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@MoodyFFS, thanks!
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@MoodyFFS, I don't suppose you have a link to the Alpe d'huez/Les deux alpes one do you?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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 mid-Feb prediction please!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| bethc wrote: |
| @MoodyFFS, I don't suppose you have a link to the Alpe d'huez/Les deux alpes one do you? |
Just change the lat and long in the URL. So 746 becomes 645
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@puplett, Fantastic. Thanks. I can resume my obsession!
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Proper Winter is coming to a close in ~3 weeks and this is how Northern Hemisphere snow cover looks right now, Jan 24, 2017.
Note how green the UK / Scotland is:
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You know it makes sense.
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A bit of pollution snow across France yesterday and today. Maybe we should go back to burning coal?
Massif Central is supposed to be coming in for some new snow on Friday - blown in from the Med in a classic "rentré maritime" weather pattern.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Still fairly 'early' in the season for Scotland. Maybe some hints of snowfall at the weekend/start of february. Typically late feb-mid April is the season with best snow in scotland.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Whitegold,
How does that compare to previous years?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Proper Winter is coming to a close in ~3 weeks |
It is certainly true that by the first week of March there is a noticeable spring like feel to things in the French Alps at least.
This year looks more and more like 2006/7 with no established base so a snow-pack that is fragile at the moment to any foehn or high level rain or general thaw. There is around 20cm of snow on the ground from valley level so it looks wintry but there isn't any serious depth below 2000m. The pistes, especially N facing, will be ok through to the start of April (although I heard some people grumbling about the pistes at la Plagne this week) then I expect it will be early doors for all but the higher altitude ski areas unless there is some serious snow fall, the resorts will probably be happy to lay off as many staff as they can after the February school holiday period.
People who sell skis will probably be happy at the end of the year - the number of people I know who have done serious damage off piste is pretty amazing.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| zzz wrote: |
@Whitegold,
How does that compare to previous years? |
Coverage looks about average for the time of year, perhaps slightly below, with Northeastern US, western Western Europe and Northern China looking a little light.
Of course, it doesn't show snowdepth, which is very high in some places (California) and very low in others (France, UK).
Interesting to see Russia, the world's largest country by geography, covered ~99% in snow.
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We have had awesome conditions in the central Pyrenees for a couple of weeks now and temperatures are still very cold (-7 degrees at 1500m today) and though there is a hint of some snow between now and the weekend, what is a bug is that it looks like next week the freezing level is going to jump to around 2500m with the possibility of some rain.
I am hoping this is not the case - but if it is, hopefully not too much..
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| Ski Guide wrote: |
We have had awesome conditions in the central Pyrenees for a couple of weeks now and temperatures are still very cold (-7 degrees at 1500m today) and though there is a hint of some snow between now and the weekend, what is a bug is that it looks like next week the freezing level is going to jump to around 2500m with the possibility of some rain.
I am hoping this is not the case - but if it is, hopefully not too much.. |
Everyone is going around with a long face at the moment, this just received:- "Gotta make the most of it before the tropical monsoon arrives next week... "
The worry is that with no base high altitude rain will destroy the snow pack.
Friday/Saturday Massif Central and eastern Pyrenees should get blitzed than rain from Monday at altitude...
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@davidof, any news on Austria? Zillertal etc. Is rain forecast at altitude there too?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Bennyboy1 wrote: |
| @davidof, any news on Austria? Zillertal etc. Is rain forecast at altitude there too? |
No idea, I think they have more base than the western French Alps anyway. I think the Pyrenees should fair a better too.
Anywhere above 2000/2200 meters should see fresh snow. Val d'Isere, Val Thorens, Avoriaz etc should do well, it is not all bad news.
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Untouched snow is beautiful at the moment. Covered in large ice flakes.
Anyone know what causes that?
Been well below freezing for about 10 days since the last snowfall.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The Wasatch front In Utah received 140-200 inches of snow for January.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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http://www.avalanche-center.org/Education/glossary/surface-hoar.php
Snow and Avalanche Glossary
Surface Hoar
Also: Hoarfrost, Hoar Crystals
Ice crystals formed when water vapor from the atmosphere condenses directly into the solid phase onto a very cold surface. The process is the equivalent of dew. These crystals generally form during cold and clear conditions, particularly at night.
Surface Hoar crystals (or just Hoar Crystals) grow in flat plates, and once they are buried I have very little strength. They also collapse into a very thin layer which can be difficult to identify and/or assess the strength of.
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@snowheads68, it might be sublimation, where moisture vapour percolates up from the ground then forms solid crystals on the surface. With subsequent snow this can form a dangerous layer in the snowpack.
I've seen it form large diamond shapes, very beautiful.
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You know it makes sense.
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@geoffers, @jbob, Thanks for the answers. It is indeed beautiful. Might try and get pics tomorrow before that nasty F*** sets in.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| snowheads68 wrote: |
| @geoffers, @jbob, Thanks for the answers. It is indeed beautiful. Might try and get pics tomorrow before that nasty F*** sets in. |
Lets hope that nasty föhn destroys the surface hoar before the next snowfall...
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Poster: A snowHead
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First trip of the year coming up next week. Heading to Saint Gervais from 1 February; at what point can I expect the forecast to crystallise and provide some degree of reliability? At the moment it's still bouncing between slightly milder with little ppn until the following weekend (which I'm already assuming is unreliable and I'm FI), but also potentially wetter. It warmer still. On balance I'd take mild and no rain at the moment...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@bigtuboflard, have a read of the first post on page one of this thread.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| MoodyFFS wrote: |
Hi all,
I know a few of you have used or are using the GFS graph grabber i built a few years back on www.ski-finder.co.uk ... i have had to remove it's availability i'm afraid. Soz! |
Is that a hosting issue, ie could I host it for you, or something else "unfixable"?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@bigtuboflard Depends on the circumstances, this year seems to be about 5-7 days.
EC snowfall for next 7 days. Some falls for much of the Western Alps.
Perhaps 5-15cm for Saint Gervais.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks @Jellybeans1000, sounds about in keeping with my assumptions though I guess the FL is still likely to fluctuate in the coming days. Thanks too @nozawaonsen, I will do, but I was also just looking for some broader views as to the reliability at the moment based on the climatic models. I understand their broad limitations, and how the modelling works in the general sense (having done a BSC in Geography, and focused on meteorology in one of those years), but modelling has moved on since I graduated, and also I'm guessing some of the people on here have a greater historical understanding of how a modelled scenario plays out in reality.
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Looks like resorts close to the Mediterranean (Limone Piemonte) will score again this weekend and currently again the following weekend with a possible Retour D'Est on the cards with resorts in the Queyras getting it, only trouble is it's falling over the weekend and that doesn't make a road trip so attractive down to Limone, but Queyras is a lot closer 
Though the question is how far / long would you drive to get to the fresh?
I did a report with some great pics of our two day road trip to Limone here.
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@bigtuboflard, Careful with your use of the word 'climatic models'
There is five types of weather/climate models.
Mesoscale 0-4 days, Medium Term 4-15 days, Monthly Prediction 15-30 days
Then climatic models, Seasonal Prediction 1-12 Months, Decadal/Century Long models 1+ years.
I am guessing by climatic models you mean Seasonal Prediction? I am currently in the process of making a long term chart database, so if you have any contacts or suggestions, PM me please.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
| Though the question is how far / long would you drive to get to the fresh? |
I've storm chased from Leeds to the Alps before timing on a forecast storm and would do so again, time, work and money permitting!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Here's a picture of the snow I was talking about.
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FAQ
