nozawaonsen, agreed and it is "a bit apples and pears" lol!
Well done on all the great reporting this season, brilliant job ... but it 'aint over until the fat snowdrifts melt
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
roga wrote:
Peter S, I agree
Thing is a lot of the Alps will be closing soon, snow or no snow, and we may well therefore see Scotland still open (or at least Cairngorm) whilst lift served skiing is mainly happening in the rest of Europe at very high altitude or on parts of Scandinavia - certainly worth celebrating IMHO.
That's true, although in theory Val Thorens is open till the end of next week. In practice lots of people are shutting up shop after the weekend.
Having said that, we were there hammering and nailing and painting last year in early June and there was still a fair bit of snow high up despite the rubbish season that year. I hiked up and tried very hard to ruin my skis for a couple of runs. It was too much like hard work to walk up the boggy pistes in trainers really though.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I'm not sure if this has been mentioned here before or not, but at Meteociel they've developed a rather smart Android app which gives you all the models and the current observations (for France) on your android.
But the proper version 1.0 has now been released through the "marketplace" (or "Google playstore" or whatever its called these days) over the last couple of days.
- Winter notable for the country-wide cold spell from late January to mid February (followed by the exceptionally warm, dry and sunny March)
- During winter western Austria including Voralrberg and Tirol had 158% of average precipitation which ranks it as the 7th wettest winter in the last 154 years.
- In contrast the inner Alpine region (including Carinthia and Styria) only had 87% of average precipitation (though I suspect that may have been less in the south and more in the north).
- The mountain region as a whole saw a temperature anomaly of -1.3C.
GFS is flagging up some pretty cool temperatures in both Scotland and the Alps for next weekend with snow in both. Serious blocking over Greenland. One can only ponder what this would have done in winter.
Still not a bad outlook if you are heading for the glaciers in May and the midweek thaw to one side raises some options for Scottish skiing over the bank holiday.
Closer in strong winds are going to be a problem in the Alps over the next few days.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
It is going to get a lot warmer in Scotland during the week. Temperatures looking to be about 5-7C above average for the end of April. That will be warm.
But if the snow pack can take it...
By Friday next week it looks like being 5-7C below average with some fresh (light) snow to come before the weekend.
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That was the season that was 2011/2012.
The 2011/12 season in the Alps saw a series of patterns come and go.
Pattern One
- Mid November had a powerful high pressure block over Eastern Europe.
This shut the Atlantic out completely. Temperatures were well above average and precipitation was pretty much nil. Tense times and plenty of frantic reporting.
"A hotel in Austria's Katschberg mountains has hired 15 chimney sweepers - which are associated with good luck in the country - to pray for snow.
"We're confident things will go well now!" hotel manager Wolfgang Hinteregger said."
"An estimated 1,000 Britons were thought to have been stranded in the Austrian Alps after 10ft of powder fell in just two days in 'once-in-a-decade' snowstorms, cutting off popular resorts like Ischgl, Galtur, St Anton and Arlberg"
"Many have become stranded since the weekend because of the heaviest snowfalls in Alps in the past 30 years."
- And more snow to the Northern Alps.
Shutting down the Arlberg again.
Pattern Three
By the end of the month though the pattern was shifting to a north easterly pattern which lasted through much of February.
Drawing deep bitter cold in from the east, but also allowing snowfall to favor the Southern Alps and Pyrenees for a change.
Pattern Four
Through March and a return to high pressure blocking over Europe brought milder than normal conditions for March and once again kept substantial snowfall at bay leaving the month largely dry.
Pattern Five
Saw a rapid return to much more wintery conditions. Temperatures were often cold and snowfall was heavy at times.
Overall, the snowfall was much stronger in the Northern Alps than the Southern Alps. The long range forecasts (such as CFS) did pick up on this with a fairly consistent pattern for the southern Alps to be drier than the north. They were also correct in flagging up the general lack of northern blocking. On much else they were wide of the mark and as ever this underlines how limited the science is. Certain media hungry forecasts (which the Express and Mail in particular feasted upon) fell flat too.
In general the NAO was strongly positive for much of the season (bar early April when blocking did finally arrive over Greenland).
The AO was largely positive though the cold spell shows up clearly with blocking over Scandinavia.
Out west La Nina did deliver for the PNW, but much of the rest of the US saw snowfall below average.
Here's my thoughts (again) on winners and losers this season in terms of snowfall. Doesn't mean you couldn't have had a great time or that conditions may have been good or bad at a particular point.
Winners
Pacific North West (records broken in Alaska and Whistler)
Northern Alps (amazing December and January snowfalls, close to if not record breaking at times, poor March balanced by great April)
Japan
Losers
Southern Alps (in the shadow of the north)
Scotland (late spurt can't really make up for losing March)
SW US (record dry in places)
Eastern US (record heat in many places)
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 30-04-12 8:50; edited 3 times in total
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
great summary and as usual, thanks for bringing the weather to the layman again noza
Enjoy the summer and fingers crossed for another epic season in 12/13
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
^ ^ ^ +1 Brilliant!!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen, Thanks for your great work this season, looking forward to your 2012/13 forecasts. Have a great summer.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen, You definitely deserve the Most Valuable Poster award. Many thanks for all your efforts, when can we start getting neurotic about November?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
cad99uk, Steve Sparks, - I will 2nd these comments, you have done a great job over the last few months - true dedication to the cause - thank you very much.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Fantastic job nozawaonsen, and all contributors. Roll on November!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
looks like a big cool down this weekend coming in the Cairngorms with some further showers. Hopefully they can hold onto a base for some May bank holiday skiing
Meanwhile for the closing weekend in the Alps (away from the glaciers) its looking unsettled with further rain and snow showers. The strong Fohn has made a big hit on snowdepths at Chamonix with Lognan now down to 150cms from 205 before the weekend. Hoping things will be OK later this week.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Cham meteo has more snow over the next couple of days and then a risk of thunderstorms Wind speeds are low however so hopefully lift operations won't be too affected....other than by potential lightening
The cool down in the Cairngorms from the 4th May looks nailed on now by the weather models, with small amounts of new precipation. It looks like staying cooler than average for up to nine days thereafter.
2012 is turning into a classic skiing spring, particular compared to last year.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen, thank you for another season of fascinating forecasts! I have spent much time glued to this thread..
From mid station up cairngorm has effectively total cover on and off piste which is pretty amazing to be honest - could be skiing into June at this rate!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, Brilliant job throughout the season. Well done, see you in 6 months!
Thanks for this years update. looking back at the beginning of the thread one of the postings in April of this long range forecast was :
"Anyway, this next bit is just for fun. It is NOT a predication or a forecast for next season. It is just an end of the month peer at what the CFS model has been showing since it started showing early winter probabilities in mid April. So to reiterate it is just one model, I would expect it to change, it is just a rough look, and I would take it with a large pinch of salt. Especially six months out!
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Clearly tending towards warmer than average and a slight tendency to drier than average.
Western Alps - Tending towards normal temperatures (just a few went colder) and normal precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Tending towards normal temperatures (just a few went colder) and normal precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - tending towards normal temperatures (just a few went colder) and drier than normal.
Early Winter (November, December, January)
Scotland - Strong tendency towards warmer than normal and tending towards normal precipitation.
Western Alps - Swinging between colder and normal temperatures, slight tendency towards drier than normal.
Eastern Alps - Slight tendency to colder than normal (otherwise normal), tending towards drier than normal.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Swinging between colder than normal and normal, tending towards drier than normal [the trend over a number of recent runs has been to noticeably strengthen the probability of drier than normal for Southern French Alps/North East Italy] "
They were completely wrong. Given that someone must be paying good money for scientists to come up with this crap they would be better of asking a group of kindergarten Children to predict the long term forecast.
It's all been good fun anyway. What is the prediction for next season?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
emwmarine, it's a fair point, but then I did really try to caveat that post as heavily as I could.
- this next bit is just for fun.
- It is NOT a predication or a forecast for next season.
- I would take it with a large pinch of salt.
And before that I said:
- Few people would I think really suggest that this far out any of the LRF's have much chance of calling things, but it's something to keep an eye on over the summer months to see how it is shaping up and see if there is indeed an emerging trend.
- I'm noting this now out of curiosity and to mark how it looks now, rather than because I have any confidence that this is how it will look even a few weeks from now, let alone next December!
And then when a similar point was made about whether you could tell the weather six months in advance (you CAN'T) I replied.
- Just to clarify to avoid confusion. No. You quite obviously cannot tell what the weather will be like in January in the previous April. You can't even tell what the weather will be like at the end of April at the start of April with any confidence. Frankly beyond about seven days all you might get is a trend.
- So I wasn't trying to suggest that you could at this stage make any serious prediction about next season's weather now. But as we saw last season over time (several months) you might be able to see a broad trend developing for the winter during summer. Last season that trend which started becoming apparent in August and firming up by October was that winter would start colder than average and be drier than average. So by starting this now I thought I'd have a reference to see how things developed over the coming months. Seemed like a bit of harmless fun.
- We might and I do mean might identify another trend in the coming months that gives a clue to some of the winter weather patterns. We might not.
- But I thought it might be something to keep an eye on (and not take especially seriously)...
Most of these long term models come with very clear caveats about them being experimental and the skill (measure of accuracy) being low.
The major forecasting institutions (US NWS, UKMET, ECMWF, JAMSTEC, NASA, IRI etc) all carry out research into longer range forecasting and by and large the best you can get at present is a trend repeated over time and even that won't necessarily be that accurate. They have a choice with this research they could do it all behind closed doors and not make it public. When they do this people complain and say they should make it public. When they make it public and put extensive warnings and caveats on it people complain it is not accurate (which is what the people warned was likely when they put out the research).
So. Caveat lector.
If you want to look at LRF's don't take them that seriously (the people producing the data are quite open that it is experimental) and don't expect them to produce an accurate forecast of the weather six months out.
As to whether the research should be funded I tend to think it should as I tend to be in favour of scientific research. But accept others will have different views.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Quote:
They were completely wrong.
I'd also perhaps suggest that wasn't quite the case.
Even by April last year there were indications that we would not see strong northern blocking over Greenland and that it would drier in the southern Alps than the northern Alps. Both of these were trends which continued to be supported through much of summer and autumn. And came to pass in winter.
However what it was NOT possible to see in these long term models consistently were the very blocked set up in much of October and November. The sudden shift from this pattern to the storms that came through in December and January. The cold easterly set up in February. The return to blocking and mild temperatures in March, the shift to a northerly pattern in April. All of these pattern shifts were flagged up in medium term output mind you, but the inability to see them further out clearly shows the limitations to long range forecasts. So for now at least just a bit of fun and not something to put much faith in.
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nozawaonsen,
I wasn't having a go at you, this thread has been the best of snow heads. I love the speculation. I also love the Schadenfreude of the daily mail being proved wrong and also the forecasts being proved wrong.
Scotland - Strong tendency towards warmer than normal and tending towards normal precipitation. - Not sure what happened here although I think it was drier than normal.
Western Alps - Swinging between colder and normal temperatures, slight tendency towards drier than normal. - big time wetter than normal (certainly in december and Jan)
Eastern Alps - Slight tendency to colder than normal (otherwise normal), tending towards drier than normal. - Same.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Swinging between colder than normal and normal, tending towards drier than normal - They got this one right.
Anyway all good fun and looking forward to next seasons thread.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
emwmarine, the grouping of November, December and January is a tricky one as there were such wide variations. But here's some maps showing how it looked in Scotland (and the rest of the UK).
For what it's worth over that period the Scottish mountains were warmer than normal with around average precipitation (perhaps a little wetter).
looks like some of the nicest skiing SO FAR this season
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well its now a month since most of the alpine resorts closed and over a week since the last one closed at Argentierre....here in the UK it just keeps on snowing and people just keep on skiing......
The next 5 days looks to stay cold with more snow showers over the Cairngorms
Of course those are all glaciers above 2500m, which might expect to be reaching peak snow depth around about this time of year. Here in the UK the snow line is down below 1000m in the Cairngorms and the summer solstice is only 5 weeks away. Or put another way, the nights start drawing in next month
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Peter S, you are continuing to compare apples with pears.
The Alps are at a completely different altitude to Scotland. It is colder at this altitude.
Scotland sits at a completely different latitude to the Alps. It is colder at this latitude.
You can ski in the Alps if you want at present and it snowed heavily this week (especially in the eastern Alps).
You can ski in Scotland if you want at present and it snowed heavily this week.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Peter S that's not true though is it?
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, where is still open in Europe?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Ricklovesthepowder, a few examples.
Hintertux has 14 lifts open today serving 62km of piste.
Kitzsteinhorn has 11 lifts open today.
Stubai has 10 lifts open and 48km of pistes.
It snowed heavily in the eastern Alps last week to 600m. It is due to snow across the Alps next week too.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
looks like scorchio here in the UK next couple of days. Kinlochewe in the western highlands was the hottest place in Britain yesterday at 29C. It is much more often the coldest
Great weather for anyone climbing or walking in Skye this week, though heat and water may be a problem.
Today may well be the last day of the 2011/2012 season in the Cairngorms although no doubt there will continue to be some runs open on Europes other glaciers
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
Wind speeds are low however so hopefully lift operations won't be too affected....other than by potential lightening 
