The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

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Clairebear, a dusting down of the hiking boots may be prudent

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Clairebear, don't worry.... when all the snow melts, it'll fill up the reservoirs again Very Happy

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Clairebear, don't panic! Worst case you'll have to take a lift to the snowline, which goes up to 3000m so you should be fine. Looks like they are reporting 90cm at 1800m and only a few runs shut according to this http://www.tele-villars-gryon.ch/tvg/infoneige/infoneige.aspx?idPage=1

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red 27, you can't see me but I am now banging my head on my desk - boooo!!!! Crying or Very sad

shoogly, I guess every cloud has a silver lining, liking your way of thinking Smile

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kitenski, oooooooh that's got my head swiftly off the desk - I will check out the link, thank you!!

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Clairebear, and over 2m of snow on the glacier, with temps of -8, so that snow ain't going anywhere!!

http://www.glacier3000.ch/en/Winter/

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Clairebear, the problem with cannons is that however much water there is in the reservoir they can't blow snow unless it's several degrees below freezing.

After all it is free

that's put a bigger smile on my face kitenski, thanks!! Oh I'm so glad I posted here this morning, was feeling rather gloomy about it all this morning!

pam w, so for the reservoir to fill the temp needs to rise so the snow melts, then the temp needs to drop enough for them to work! Okay I think I'm getting it! Or it could just SNOW SNOW SNOW Very Happy

Clairebear, well, I guess it depends on the specific context. But reservoirs are not likely to be filled directly by snowmelt (many of them are on the top of hills, and then the cannons fed by gravity; water is pumped up at night, when electricity is cheap). I imagine that the overall water (and cost/budget) considerations will be more significant - as will a calculation on how effective it will be to make snow. How long it will last, etc

Anyway, not much snow melts; it mainly evaporates. wink

It's quite noticeable sometimes that the ground just in front of a retreating "wall" of snow is really surprisingly dry. Depends on the kind of wind blowing, and how dry/wet it is. A warm dry wind just sucks up the snow - it just disappears in front of your eyes.

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Uh oh I sound a little dumb Embarassed

Thanks pam w for that informative little lesson, never too old to learn something new wink

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Is it me or do the wiggles for next week on page 71 for Les Deux Alpes appear to show a colder shift again now and still persistant precipitation (and therefore snow). Been following this for most of the winter (went to Italy in Jan too, not just worrying about LDA on the 20th). Not commented on these before and not sure if I quite get them yet despite everything I've now read.

Please say yes, even if the answers no... NehNeh

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Mild weather looks set to continue across much of the Alps for the next week at least. Some suggestions things might start to shift around the end of next week.

Pick of where to be continues to look like Italy. Temperatures a couple if degrees cooler than elsewhere in the Alps and the potential of a couple of bands of significant snow over the next week.

Cooling down here in the UK into next week with an ice day forecast for Braemar on Sunday.

Snowfall continues throughout the weekend with the west getting the most. Should be good throughout all the Scottish centres by early next week and webcams alreday looking significantly improved on top of the already good base.

Outside chance of some skiing in the Lake District this weekend if tomorrows dump comes off ?

You know it makes sense.

Hmm the 00z waS hinting for a cold spell, in fi. The 6z appears to have knocked that on the head.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

kitenski, not so sure. There are continuing suggestions of a cooler period from the end of next week in GFS 00z, 06z and now 12z. ECM 00z took things cooler from round then too... The operational will shuffle around, but the trend is there...

All off in FI of course and if you can't shepherd it safely into the +168 period intact then it doesn't count for much. Worth keeping an eye on. Should be clearer by Sunday evening.

Shorter term. Mild and spring like for much of the Alps. Though there will be a fair bit of cloud at times over the next few days.

Two bands of snow to keep an eye on. 13 March and 17 March. Italy (which is a little cooler than other parts of the Alps) looks like taking the lion's share. Parts of France may benefit too.

More snow into Scotland today and again at the weekend, though weekend temperatures will raise the snow line to around 1000 to 1200m, before cooling again and possibility if more snow Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look calmer.

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, I'd be glad to be proved wrong, it appeared to have shifted back in my view from 00z to 6z (for the Arlberg)

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kitenski, here's a diagram showing a compilation of the last four runs for the Arlberg. Whilst individual runs are obviously going up and down the mean for the last four suggests to me that there has over the last 24 hours (and a little before) been a trend showing up suggesting cooling from around the end of next week. That's still too far off to have any confidence in and could still end up cooler or milder than the mean. But the trend is there. The 00z GFS operational was a colder FI run, but again I'd be more focussed on the general trend at this stage (unless you were seeing real consistency in the operational run).

It'll be interesting to see if ECM 12z follows the trend this evening.

And of course the key is that this then makes it into the five to seven day range! Last weekend up until the Sunday 12z runs it was looking possible we could be seeing a cooler week unfolding from the end of this week, whilst the low pressure moving into the Mediterranean is still looking good, the cold from the north didn't make it through. So again I'd be looking at where we were on Sunday evening to see if the trend is still looking strong (and getting cross model support, which although there were a few hints was never really a feature of the potential cold northern incursion).

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nozawaonsen, that's a very useful diagram!! Like you said it teased us last week and appears to be doing the same again...

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For what it's worth here is the 12z ECM at +240.

And here is 12z GFs at 240.

Individually as runs they don't mean so much, but it is interesting to see them both suggesting a similar picture of cooler temperatures moving in next weekend.

ECM also shows the low pressure system moving in from the Mediterranean on 17 March nicely.

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next week is looking rather poor for my Austria trip.. I don't usually do internet smilies but....... Sad

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So, the possibility of more, noticeable snow at Arc 1800 by 26th March is not out of the question?

*looks hopefully at the people who understand everything that's said in here*

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DaKid, certainly the possibility is there. Indeed I'd have thought Les Arcs might do quite well in the second half of the month if you look at the forecasts being modeled at present, but... obviously that's too far out to have any real confidence in at this stage and a lot can change in a couple of weeks...

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Fingers crossed for some late-season dumps in Tignes as well.

Signal for cooler weather across the Alps from the end of next week is continuing with both GFS and ECM. Low confidence at this stage given the range. But good to see it sustaining and building cross model support for now.

Shorter term snow coming in on the 13 March looks like it will be significant in North West Italy. It also looks like it will feature in the Dolomites and could also reach Southern French Alps (possibly reaching Les Deux Alpes and Alpes D'Huez).

17 March sees the second band which will be stronger and more widespread. At present it looks like it will bring substantial snow to Italy and light snow to parts of France and Switzerland (though the snow line could be around 1800m in France and 1500m in Italy).

It looks, for now, like continuing unsettled (though cooler) into the week after.

More significant snow into Scotland over weekend, snow line dropping from what was being modeled yesterday, now down to 900m.

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Here's hoping these forecasts come true for some dumpage starting on 17th!

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roga, sounds great doesn't it Very Happy

might be worth taking a day off work early next week once the winds have died down

You know it makes sense.

Glencoe email update says:

If the forecast for the next few days is correct it could be a pretty special weekend.

Saturday - The forecast is for light winds (15 - 25mph) and during daylight hours just the occasional snow shower. It is suggested on MWIS that visibility will break from the west to leave some summits clear later in the afternoon.

Very heavy snow is expected to move in later on Saturday evening.

Sunday - The forecast is again for relatively light winds (20 - 30mph). The overnight heavy snow is expected to clear through by midmorning and MWIS are forecasting patch work sunshine later in the day.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

looks like control and operational diverge quite widely for the Arlberg in GFS 06z, so all up in the air for next weekend onwards....

A snowHead

shoogly, yeah deffo worth some time off!

kitenski, sounds like it could be a classic - if anyone can my advice would be to get up to Glencoe pronto! snowHead

A snowHead

roga, wondering if I can get up Mon.tues myself...

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I enjoy looking at the charts, is it possible to create one for Les Menuires/Val Thorens?

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dave_m, yup, dead easy! read the sticky about beginners guide to GFS, or I have this for La Tania...

http://www.gregh.co.uk/php/gfsruns.php?select=la+tania

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

Can anyone tell me what the forecast is saying for the 3 valleys please? Im not going until the 26th but Meribel webcams are already showing the snow has melted and gone in places and the bottom of the runs next to the lifts is all slushy Mad

Im hoping the weather will still change and with it bring some snow however i cant say im too optimistic now.

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No fundamental changes to the outlook tonight.

Trend continues to look colder than this and next week's mild temperatures from end of next week.

Unsettled during the coming week, with Italy looking likely to be the main beneficiary.

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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

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