 Poster: A snowHead
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@Peter S, given the UK is also expected to be above average in the same period... I suppose it wouldn't be ironic at all.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well at least the precipitation might break the drought in the alps and the south of England.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Hi, thanks for all the useful weather information this season, as always!
I have a quick question and I know its FI but how likely is the rise in temperatures towards the end of the month? Could it still remain cold and is it the precipitation amount and location in doubt. Or is FI simply fantasy island relating to temperature and precipitation? Could it go either way...
My holiday in the alps ends Jan 31st and I'd hate for it to end with rain! We're heading to Skiwelt in Tyrol, a relatively low resort.
Thanks
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Jones82, no offence meant in any way, but I'm a little baffled.
As best I can I've set out the basic parameters as I see them in the first post on the first page.
Beyond seven days is very uncertain.
You simply cannot have any confidence beyond that stage.
So and this is not meant to be unkind, but I really don't understand your question.
"How likely", "could", "doubt".
Uncertain, possibly, maybe.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Foehn forecast for the eastern Savoie ranges tomorrow, replacing the bise.
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@Jones82 Precipitation is very hard to Forecast that far out, and you can only really get an idea if it is going to rain on a certain day, no amounts at all.
Temperatures are a little easier to forecast that far out, but I still don't put much confidence in it. Things will change. ATM it is forecast to be warmer than average, but a flip isn't out of the question. Patience is very important with the weather.
Self evaluation is important to me and my long term forecasts should be judged for what they are worth.
I have had a good track record with long term snow predictions in Japan this season. But my European predictions have been very poor. And it's all got to do with harder dynamics in Europe and trying to keep tab with all the climate indicators for Europe. So far it's been a very up and down season for Europe. With all this uncertainty with Europe's weather, I think clinging hopes to a weather system 12 days away is at least poorly informed. But you can watch it and see how it progresses, which is what I like to do.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thanks for the links @nozawaonsen! It'll be interesting to see how the Foehen develops.
Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask, but I'm generally having a hard time working out what the effect of this recent dump of snow has been "on the ground" accross the Alps. While it seems to have been decently cold and lots of resorts are advertising great conditions for obvious reasons, it seems from the forum reports that the actual effect on the off piste is more limited (due to lack of base, wind scouring and dodgey layers in the snowpack).
The reason I'm asking is that I'm thinking of booking a weekend trip to La Grave this weekend (leave Thursday) but don't know if it'll be worth it (half board, flights and guide at £860) or whether I should snaffle up a deal to Chamonix at £425 - B&B, no guide), or head elsewhere.
tl;dr:any thoughts on where is actually best snow-wise following this recent dump would be much appreciated.
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@recz
Definitely take care on fresh cover, especially with nothing under it. Has been a bit windy from observing AWS. I usually wait for a base before I go out back.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@recz, check out the wePowder site, their weatherman Morris usually pinpoints the best & safest places to find powder...click through to the latest Full Forecast and take heed of the warnings about lack of base and weak layers in some areas...
http://wepowder.com/
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@recz, get a guide.
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Hmmmm. Out of nowhere 3b meteor now predicting 50cm of snow for cervinia on transfer day Sunday.......
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @recz, get a guide. |
wise words
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@jedster .....and deserted! looks great
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| scotspikey wrote: |
| Hmmmm. Out of nowhere 3b meteor now predicting 50cm of snow for cervinia on transfer day Sunday....... |
Another Med Low forecast to develop at the weekend, seems to be tracking too far South (Tunisia, Sicily) to affect the Alps due to High Pressure over N & C Europe, but maybe they've picked up on a more Northerly track somewhere.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| luigi wrote: |
| scotspikey wrote: |
| Hmmmm. Out of nowhere 3b meteor now predicting 50cm of snow for cervinia on transfer day Sunday....... |
Another Med Low forecast to develop at the weekend, seems to be tracking too far South (Tunisia, Sicily) to affect the Alps due to High Pressure over N & C Europe, but maybe they've picked up on a more Northerly track somewhere. |
Doesn't look that far north on EC....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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If you can just keep it looking like that until the 28th, that will be grand......
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| recz wrote: |
Thanks for the links @nozawaonsen! It'll be interesting to see how the Foehen develops.
Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask, but I'm generally having a hard time working out what the effect of this recent dump of snow has been "on the ground" accross the Alps. While it seems to have been decently cold and lots of resorts are advertising great conditions for obvious reasons, it seems from the forum reports that the actual effect on the off piste is more limited (due to lack of base, wind scouring and dodgey layers in the snowpack).
The reason I'm asking is that I'm thinking of booking a weekend trip to La Grave this weekend (leave Thursday) but don't know if it'll be worth it (half board, flights and guide at £860) or whether I should snaffle up a deal to Chamonix at £425 - B&B, no guide), or head elsewhere.
tl;dr:any thoughts on where is actually best snow-wise following this recent dump would be much appreciated. |
La Grave is skiable at the moment, but snowdepths and conditions are someway below-average, and not all the lifts are open. Given its steep, rocky nature, it may not be the best choice.
The best snow right now is in the Pyrenees. Soldeu got 100-200cm fresh snowfall in the past week.
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This morning's output has tended towards prolonging the influence of high pressure.
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Blimey, just seen Arabba-geddon being forecast on the Dolomites thread. 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Hurtle, I'm less convinced at this stage.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Mammoth, California, due another 5-8 feet of powda in the next few days.
Set to be its 2nd snowiest January in history.
Snowpack is around +250% above-average.
Some are saying the upper-base will hit 400 inches / 33 feet (1000cm) by February.
Mammoth probably has the most snow of any resort on Earth right now.
Should stay open until July 4th or even August.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Hurtle wrote: |
| Blimey, just seen Arabba-geddon being forecast on the Dolomites thread. |
GFS suggesting same for Via Lattea now too...
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @Hurtle, I'm less convinced at this stage. |
Noted. Thanks. Some new snow would be nice, but we don't really need Arabba-geddon again!
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You know it makes sense.
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| abbosphere wrote: |
| Hurtle wrote: |
| Blimey, just seen Arabba-geddon being forecast on the Dolomites thread. |
GFS suggesting same for Via Lattea now too... |
Its likely appearing for several locations. However, its appearing near the end of the forecast run and thus in the low resolution part of it. It also has little or no support from any of the other GFS ensemble members (for 29th to 31st). At this stage I would be very skeptical of this coming off. But as pointed out, it has been shown now for several runs in a row so worth keeping an eye on.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| abbosphere wrote: |
| Hurtle wrote: |
| Blimey, just seen Arabba-geddon being forecast on the Dolomites thread. |
GFS suggesting same for Via Lattea now too... |
AFAIK the GFS run uses slightly different assumptions in each of its runs (I think noza explained what each uses last year or earlier this year). One of the GFS Op runs each day has forecast a fair bit of snow for Northwest Italy for 21-23th and 29-30th for as long as they've been on the graph, however it's been a distinct outlier with little to no support from the other scenarios or the other GFS runs throughout the day. A decent snowfall isn't out of the question but I wouldn't put any money on it until there's a fair bit of support.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Just out of the blue Bergfex are forecasting 50cms of snow in the Espace Killy on Saturday - model blip, too early to call or real (possibly)?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Bise is causing drifting on the Geneva <-> Lausanne autoroute
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@abbosphere, I'm off in a week and therefore, like you, any semblance of logic, sanity or restraint have long since gone.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@abbosphere, @esaw1, exactly the same here. Luckily off to the Pyrenees where there seems to be plenty of good news in that regard
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| franga wrote: |
| Just out of the blue Bergfex are forecasting 50cms of snow in the Espace Killy on Saturday - model blip, too early to call or real (possibly)? |
Sunday isn't it? Suits me as we arrive Friday night , it's also cropping up on another couple of sites, but less depth.
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| Jellybeans1000 wrote: |
@Jones82 Precipitation is very hard to Forecast that far out, and you can only really get an idea if it is going to rain on a certain day, no amounts at all.
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That's something I've learned from these threads.
Even near the time the numbers can be vastly different.
There was next to nothing forecast for last night (1cm) yet there was 20cms fresh at the top this morning and it's snowed lightly all day.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@jimmybog, @esaw1,
Same here. Coming from the States in 10 days and have been obsessed with first not enough snow, now warm temps and if it snows can I get from Geneva to Chamonix on the 28th. Then will he lifts be closed if there is a storm? I need to relax. It'll be great no matter.
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Scotland looks interesting next week!
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