 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Damien
Damien
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nozawaonsen,
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And here (admittedly off in FI) is another system in the Mediterranean for the 18 March...
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What does off in FI mean?
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Damien, FI (short for Fantasy Island) just means it is beyond the reliable time frame. Weather is complex and chaotic. You can't have any real confidence in a forecast beyond 5 to 7 days (and that's a stretch to be honest). In terms of snowfall (rough amounts) you can probably cut that down to two to three days. You certainly should not take anything beyond seven days too seriously.
However, what you can get a feel for by looking at the longer term forecasts are the general trends. Being trends of course they can shift around and it is not uncommon to see the models have several attempts before a particular feature makes it into the more detailed part of the forecast.
But the trend for a while now has been less settled weather moving in from the end of this week (ie from 10/11 March).
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Damien
Damien
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nozawaonsen, Thanks, heading out there on the 13th 
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nozawaonsen, bound to snow next weekend in the UK, to destroy another weekend of hockey!!!
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Well... All through the day GFS has been sliding towards a milder evolution. With sunshine and mild temperatures over the Alps this week...
This evening's 18z operational delays the low pressure over the UK allowing mild air to set up and so when it does arrive the low pressure brings rain rather than snow next weekend...
The snow in Austria and Switzerland for the end of next week never comes as high pressure over Europe prevents the northern incursion from happening.
And although it definitely does become more unsettled from next weekend (being picked up on ECM too), a series of low pressure systems flowing in from the Atlantic into the Mediterranean, without the colder weather when they arrive the Alps are a lot milder and the freezing level will be a lot higher.
See how it comes on the ensembles then more importantly let's see if we can swing back to a colder solution tomorrow...
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Some fairly sunny weather coming up in the Alps this week, certainly the first half. Cold overnight, and under the influence of Arctic cold air today, but feeling rather warm by the afternoon in the sun and warming through the week. The risk of foehn winds making an appearance at the weekend.
Low pressure from the Mediterranean looks like it could make its influence felt from next weekend. Italy, as the ensembles above suggest, looks like it could do well. Temperatures in general looking above seasonal, though the mean keeps it pretty much seasonal throughout. Very low confidence from the end of this week.
Possibly some light snow into parts of France overnight. More so on the Italian side.
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Les Deux Alpes, Alpes D'Huez.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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those high temps are not what we wanted to see! 
What's the chances of it swinging the other way and bringing them temps more in line with average?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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shoogly, it's primarily the operational run that is above average. The mean (the average of all the ensembles) and the control keep things just about around the seasonal average. Obviously though it's worth paying attention to the operational given it's weighting. That said Sunday 00z and 06z both had very cold operational runs in the Alps from next weekend...
So plenty to play for.
Saying that 06z operational is on the milder side. Bringing waves of snow at high altitude, and rain lower down, across from the Atlantic and through the Mediterranean from the weekend.
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shoogly, a bit of freeze thaw will help stabilise what is currently a pretty funky snowpack
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You know it makes sense.
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Arno, did it stop you much - looks like you got fairly steep...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Why's it gone so quiet in here.....whats happened 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Pleasant, warm, sunny and springlike for much of the Alps. Temperatures look to be oscillating above and below a line slightly above seasonal average, but not a great deal. Warming through the week.
Low pressure continues to look like it will move into the Mediterranean around Sunday/Monday (almost all the models lining up behind this if not the exact timing). Once more offering the potential for significant snow in and around north west Italy. However the rest of the rest of the Alps have faired this season the area around the Italian milky way seems to have done rather well...
The spread on the GFS ensembles beyond the weekend shows the degree of uncertainty at present. The control now once more looking at a cooler evolution. Worth noting ECM is at present focussing on milder options.
Scottish mountains look like they will get a fair punt of snow, though whether it would be quite as much as suggested on the GFS operational remains to be seen. Stormy weather overnight on Wednesday, will bring quite a bit of snow, though the snow line may be kicking around 1000 to 1200m. More likely to come through with cooler temperatures over the weekend.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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moffatross, fair enough!
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What does it mean when the operational lines breaks, and starts again elsewhere on the chart? Glitch in the dataset?
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| moffatross wrote: |
But let's not allow that to detract from the simple joy of highlighting how much snow it did suggest could fall over the Scottish mountains by the end of the weekend.  ... |
Or Noza's chart above highlighting that the winds will be in excess of 40mph.
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If I read my 6z wigglies for the Arlberg they are leaning back towards a colder spell from about the 17th March...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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roga, those GFS charts are best seen as general guides. The actual figures are unlikely to show up...
What it does suggest is the likelihood of some heavy snow above 1000 to 1200m. As the storm comes through it will also provide a rise in temperature... So the snow level will be worth watching, but good for higher slopes.
Wind is the same in Scotland as it is in any mountains. Filling the gullies, hollows and gaps with wind blown snow. Which should be nice to ski on and help keep the depths away from the ridges... Potentially worth keeping am eye on the avalanche risk of course...
Still the result looks the same which is some good snow in Scotland as well as parts of the Italian Alps.
06z continues a tentative shift towards colder temperatures in the Alps from the middle of next week...
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I shouldn't have looked at my home mtn snow report. 60 inches of new the past week. Well lucky for my friends back home. Means I'll just ski powder when I get back to Seattle. Definitely was not the year to plan a trip to Europe. 
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You know it makes sense.
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Well, do I not like the look of this evenings 12z of in FI ....... that would mean an early end to the season. It can pack that in for a start
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Tell, tell ...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Rain
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Freezing level?
Off to Tignes in 2 weeks - if freezing level above 2,000m then we might as well go home.
Oh god.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Whatever you do......DON'T PANIIIIIIIIIIIIC
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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FFs
1. Tignes has loads of skiing over 2000m
2. the temps have flip flopped 10 degrees every other run so far, does that not tell you something ?
3. any forecast over 3 days is normally of low confidence
4. There is feck all we can do about it anyhow, wether it be warm, cold or in-between.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I'm panicinggggg 
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SwishWithMe, as kitenski, says, feck all we can do. There is snow at least.
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Guys Tignes will be fine, it's one of the most snow sure areas in the Alps.
nozawaonsen, point taken but I'm sure the Scottish wind is a bit fiercer than that namby pamby Alpine wind
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Continuing fairly sunny and mild for the time of the year (albeit that we are now in spring).
At present next week looks to continue mild for much of the Alps, though probably less settled than this week. The best conditions look like being around the Italian Milky Way with temperatures around average for the time of year and a fair amount of snow forecast.
Still considerable uncertainty for how things will develop beyond the middle of next week.
Looking good for snow coming into Scotland now and over the next few days. Though could be wild at times, with temperatures dropping then rising accompanied by a fair amount of wind. Should be great once it has calmed down a little.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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No real change this morning. Sunshine and warm temperatures look like lasting into the weekend. More unsettled weather will bring snow in the Italian Alps on Sunday and Monday, particularly round the Italian Milky Way. Elsewhere temperatures will be mild for the time of year, some snow likely in parts of the French Alps at altitude.
Looks like continuing warm into next week. Perhaps suggestions of a change around the end of next week, looking fairly unsettled for much of next week with the possibility of more snow later next week (around 17 March) particularly on the Italian side, however outside of north west Italy it looks like the snow level will be around 1800m+ which is worth keeping an eye on.
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FAQ
