 Poster: A snowHead
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The 12Z is looking pretty special too. That's 3 out of the last 4 GFS operational runs giving us a blocked Atlantic and snow on Friday 21st October. Coincidence ? Maybe not ...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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And now the ECM joins the party for the 21st. Scotland, start waxing those skis & boards ...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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AndAnotherThing.., those "Unisys" charts are I think just the 00z GFS?
Anyway 12z ECM was very interesting!
[edit: moffatross has already posted chart].
Cold flowing across UK and towards the Alps by 21 October. Solid heights building over Greenland. This would be a very cold chart if you got it in mid winter. Obviously no reliable detail at that range, but interesting trends nevertheless. Will they still be there this time tomorrow?
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nozawaonsen, ah ok - new to all this.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen,
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Cold flowing across UK and towards the Alps by 21 October.
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Fingers crossed! I got first tracks last year on October 26th in Montalbert, hoping to do the same again this year 
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Variations on a theme this morning. Though perhaps not quite as cold as some of last night's output, nor reaching quite so far into the continent.
With both GFS and ECM the UK and Scotland in particular could see cool or cold weather arriving from Tuesday 18 October. This would threaten to bring snowfalls to the western Alps and down the French Italian border on Wednesday 19 October on GFS. Before temperatures turned milder again (back to seasonal average) the following week.
Obviously still a long way off.
Closer in it still looks like it will be quite cold and clear early on Friday and Saturday mornings, particularly in the Tirol.
Relatively large fall in the ENSO figure this week. Now down to -0.78 from -0.63.
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06z GFS would bring snow to Scottish mountains and the Alps for around 19/20 October, before high pressure and milder temperatures return later in the run (FI).
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This evening's output underlines the continuing uncertainty about whether next week will be cold or perhaps just cool or even mild (from the ECM output).
Met Office views on recent newspaper reporting.
UK Winter - no cause for alarmism
Last edited by After all it is free  on Thu 13-10-11 1:01; edited 2 times in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065
if ive pasted this right, the MET are predicting colder weather next week and looking at the weather charts this may push colder and wetter weather (snow!) towards the alps, again they predict a return to slightly warmer coditions in November,again they are looking at the same info you are.
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Not sure. The link you have posted is I believe the same one you posted on Monday? That link has nothing to do with conditions this winter.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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This morning continues to see a shift away from the possibility of cooler weather in the Alps in a week's time, with GFS suggesting high pressure in the Mediterranean would prevent any incursion from the north (although a number of the ensemble runs did produce colder options).
Talking of cooler weather this Bourg St Maurice chart illustrates nicely that despite two sharp cold spells in September and October the last 30 days are still running above average (+1.35C).
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Netweather Autumn and into Winter Long Range Forecast [for the UK]
"There is a lot of hype and discussion surrounding the upcoming Winter currently, with various (often spectacular) headlines in the media, but it's important to make clear that although the forecast below does point toward some cooler (or even colder) than average temperatures at times in the coming months, this doesn't mean that some of the snowmageddon like headlines are any more likely to be true." [Netweather]
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Thu 13-10-11 22:21; edited 3 times in total
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, I've just purchased some snow socks for the car which pretty much guarantees a warm wet winter here 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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This morning continues to see a shift away from the possibility of cooler weather in the Alps in a week's time,
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well I have to say I'm very pleased to hear it. I had a lovely few hours walk yesterday, up over the Col de Very, in lightweight trousers and a vest top. I'd like a couple more weeks of similar weather, thanks. Even if it did dump a load of snow on us in a week's time it would all melt, just like the snow at the weekend, fun as it was to stomp around in a foot of snow for the half day before it melted.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I'd like a couple more weeks of similar weather, thanks.
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Not sure you'll get that either way...
From now till midweek high pressure looks to be in charge. Should be pretty clear and warm. Great for autumn hiking. Getting cooler overnight though, particularly in Austria for the next couple of days.
If you are heading to Tignes this weekend it looks pretty sunny between now and midweek. Here is the meteogram.
From midweek it looks like rain or possibly snow could arrive Wednesday night.
What is still very unclear (and what will obviously decide whether it is snow or rain that rolls in) is how far into the continent the cold air will push. Quite far if this evening's 18z GFS is to be believed with snow in the Alps from the 20 October (snow showers or sleet could appear in the Scottish mountains from Monday and look how cold Scotland would be on the chart below if it verified).
Never the less much of today's output has been less enthusiastic about the extent of the cold. So unsettled from mid week? Probably. Colder and snowy in the Alps. Possibly, but so far not a very clear signal and it could easily switch back to a milder outlook by morning.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, thanks. Rain...........
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Pedantica,  Sunshine for next six days... Then unclear, possibly rain... possibly snow?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Back in the shorter term...
Still some uncertainty over midweek. At present it looks like fairly sunny up to and through Tuesday in the Alps, quite mild day time temperatures, noticeably colder overnight. More unsettled weather looks likely to arrive either Wednesday or Thursday.
Most of this morning's output seems to suggest the colder weather will reach into the Alps, bringing some snow (it's not looking as heavy as the last falls at present). On the GFS output it again looks like it would be heavier in the eastern Alps.
That said the output has switched back and forth in the last 24 hours, so confidence in any one outcome must be low for now.
Good piece in The Daily Mail.
Mini Ice -Age or global Warming: why can't they make their minds up?
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nozawaonsen, reasonable comments too for the most part.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This evening (and this afternoon's) output suggests a colder burst midweek, with potential snow showers arriving in the western alps late on Tuesday, and increasing (as they move east) through Friday.
Seasonal temperatures return...
But if 18z is right (very low confidence!) then colder weather returns to the Alps from midweek the following week...
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Bloody freezing here this morning! So our cold night weather has arrived here in the eastern corner of the Alps I'm in! Luckily I'm not using my car this morning so I will let the Standheizung clear the windscreen and windows!
We have a huge High Pressure zone centred over northern Germany bringing in easterlies for us. Really clear at night and beautiful autumnal days when the mist clears. The glaciers should get some topping up, be it natural or artificial snow to cover up the summer debris fields.
As for the global warming/ice age debate - the Daily Mail has the attention span of a flea - no matter how well they write, they will change their mind tomorrow to get another eye catching headline! What the editorial journos have never grasped is that it is all about climate change, not a definitive move one way or the other, disruption to the established patterns that people are used to. That and of course the concept global - if it isn't causing them problems in their cosy SE England world, it is all a load of tosh any way!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Output definitely coalescing around a cold and potentially snowy incursion in the Alps midweek (snow showers in Scottish mountains from Monday). As with the snowfall earlier this month it looks rather like it will favour the Eastern Alps.
Weight of accumulated snow +180 (GFS)
(I wouldn't be surprised to see that shift back a bit further west, but it gives you the idea)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Seeing the wetter.at forecast and a couple of others showing snow starting from the 19th for my neck of the woods. Snow machines blasting away at night now. The man made was staying around down to around 1600m today. Looks like they may get a small base down for the next natural stuff. A glorious sunny and cool day today.
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You know it makes sense.
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A final fortnightly look at the CFS probability charts for winter and spring 2011/12.
Changes from previous forecast in square brackets.
- probability of an average to cold start to winter across the whole of Europe [though in recent runs a colder start was looking stronger over the Alps]
- drier than average conditions likely in the Alps throughout winter, and throughout spring.
- average/colder weather reaching up until the end of January [a switch to average temperatures in the Alps in February, a switch to warmer than average in Scotland from January]
- Spring looking warmer than average across Europe.
This is a generally consistent pattern which has been in place since spring on the CFS model. Higher probability of a colder (or colder/average) start to the winter in the Alps and warmer spring. Drier than average. Scotland warming through winter and spring (in terms of anomaly) earlier and with a less pronounced tendency towards cold anomaly earlier.
The stronger probabilities over the last fortnight were:
Pre season (October, November, December).
No longer being show in the seasonal probability range. In terms of anomalies there is a cold anomaly apparent over the Alps in November and December, other than that average.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Average temperature, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average ahead of colder than average, drier than precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average ahead of colder than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average ahead of average, drier than average.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Warmer than average split with average, wetter than average.
Western Alps - Average ahead of colder than average, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Average ahead of colder than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average ahead of colder than average, drier than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Warmer than temperatures, drier than average.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Average temperatures, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature, drier than average.
Early Spring (February, March, April)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Spring (March, April, May)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Western Alps - Warmer than temperatures, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average, drier than average.
Worth noting though that this just a probability forecast. NOT a forecast for the weather. Even during a drier than average period there could well be episodes of substantial snowfall. And mild weather during a colder than average month. Moreover the fact that a particular model sees an increased probability over a period does not preclude the possibility that one of the less probable outcomes might prevail.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, thanks as ever for that; would you say the CFS 'predictions' are generally in line with other forecasts of this type?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Remember that in terms of being a prediction, it's a prediction of the relative probabilities not the actual outcome. That's important in terms of the confidence you place in it (ie not too much! Don't take any of these long range experimental models that seriously, they simply are not reliable enough to put much faith in).
If you want to see a comparison of the way the other models were shaping up have a look back at 22 September.
But as you asked...
So far this month of those that have come out so far, METO has gone for a higher probability of milder temperatures in Scotland and average in the Alps. JAMSTEC has gone cold for most of Europe.
In very general terms I've not seen much, so far, to suggest a return to the strong blocking pattern over Greenland which was prevalent over the last couple of winters and lead to the extreme cold we experienced. That does not mean that it might not appear, just there are no signs yet and there were signs this time last year. There have been some weaker suggestions over the last few months which have hinted at possible Scandinavian blocking, but again they are not very strong.
In terms of the anomalies showing up in the models, at this stage there seems to be a slightly stronger suggestion of a colder end to Autumn and start to Winter (November and December) in the Alps than there is in Scotland. Although earlier model output was suggesting a colder than average start in Scotland of late some suggestions have been creeping in of an average to mild winter in the UK - that doesn't mean I don't think a colder start to winter in the UK is possible, but I'd want to see further runs on different models. IRI and NASA come out later this week and it will be interesting to see what they add, though both of them have tended to add to the suggestion of an average UK winter in recent runs. Keep in mind though that even in an "average" winter as a whole one could well have much colder periods of weather. Summer 2011 in France was about average in terms of temperature, yet concealed within this was the coldest July in 30 years...
Most output has been consistently suggesting dry or at best average conditions for the Alps and warmer than average anomalies by Spring.
Obviously it's still only mid October at present.
In terms of the coming week confidence in colder weather pushing south into the Alps is increasing. The eastern Alps looks like where the focus will be (Bergfex pushing the case for 1m of snow falling at Hintertux from Wednesday through Friday).
Wetter.at suggesting the snow line will fall to 400m in parts of Austria on Thursday.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Brian Gaze at TWO has put out some initial thoughts on Winter 2011/12 in the UK this evening.
Winter 2011/12 Initial Thoughts
"At the moment things look finely balanced, and although I would be surprised if the winter turns out to be very mild and snowless, chances of average or milder than average temperatures are higher than they have been for the last few years. I wouldn’t be surprised if this winter was the mildest since 2007/08, but despite this, it’s too early to discount the possibility of another cold one. If sustained cold is to come this year I suspect we’ll see a different pattern to recent winters, with more blocking over Scandinavia later in January and February."
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Snow arriving in the Alps this Wednesday into Thursday. Focussed on the east with the snowline looking like it will get down pretty low, 500-750m+ possible in parts of Austria (Bergfex has slightly trimmed the expected snowfall from yesterday, but still suggests one to two foot in places). Temperatures staying cold, possibly very cold overnight in parts of the Eastern Alps, Friday into Saturday, but with high pressure settled over the continent it should be dry and clear.
Same high pressure keeps the Atlantic pinned back with low pressure bringing wind and rain to the UK. Temperatures become milder in the Alps Sunday and Monday.
And then according to GFS... snow returns on Tuesday 25 and Wednesday 26 October, this time favouring the Western Alps and French/Italian border, but low confidence in that outcome at this stage (either temperature rising or high pressure digging in could complicate this).
More generally the Scandi high pattern which ECM was toying with last night still appears in different firms in both GFS and ECM FI charts.
Interesting piece on LaChaineMeteo comparing the current dry conditions in France with the run up to the 1976 drought.
Sécheresse persistante : similitude avec l'automne et l'hiver 1975?
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Looks like some stormy weather to hit New Zealand, heavy snow but looks like strong winds. Late in the season, I guess all closed up, anyone snowheads still skiing down that way?
http://www.metservice.com/skifields/the-remarkables
Looking nice closer to home (Austria) , hopefully get enough to get the touring skis out again, been more than a week now since I've been skiing!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Interesting to see the Beijing Climate Centre is now seeing northern blocking developing over Greenland. This is the first strong indicator in the models of this for winter so far this season.
November to January
December to February
January to March
This would potentially increase the chances of colder weather pushing down from the Arctic during winter.
Shorter term this evening's output continues to play with building high pressure over Scandinavia. This type of pattern in winter would see cold air pushing across Europe from the east. It's too early at present (and not cold enough in the east) for real cold to be pulled across.
Never the less this evening's 18z would see rain/snow at altitude in the Alps around 26 October with a snow line around 1800m to 2100m+.
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FAQ
) from and including Tuesday, but obviously I'm going to put my trust in you rather than in them. 
) search the web, but i've not found anything yet 
