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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@denfinella, in fairness, it is only november 9th... snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@@denfinella, agree. Edited the post above. Now should have read NOT
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Rollercoaster ride ahead for next few days. Buckle up and enjoy the ride snowHead
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Verbier, Zermatt and the high resorts in the Tarentaise will have a very enviable base by Christmas at this rate ...I'm not sure about the low lying resorts around Geneva though. Still very early days - I have a feeling this will be an overall decent season for the Alps.
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@under a new name, indeed, in fact snow depths at higher altitudes in the NW Alps are apparently well above average for the time of year.
@Boarderfarce, hehe, that makes much more sense! snowHead
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Beautiful morning here, the Föhn is back, clear blue skies the views of the mountains so clear you feel you can touch them (though they are around 50km away) from Salzburg all the way to the Zugspitze. Not sure how much snow the eastern alps will see in the near future I think a good bit less than the more westerly areas (though We powder is posting optimistic amounts for the Arlberg, that is not reflected elsewhere)
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@denfinella, I wasmore referring to any expectation of valley snow… pretty impressive high up though Laughing
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@munich_irish, Arlberg always max’s out catches the westerly , Northerly and Easterly storms .
Isn’t it the snowiest area in the alps ?
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@under a new name, absolutely. My comment re. valley snow was just a response to @Boarderfarce who wrote that the forecast temps would be building a base in the valley (which turned out to be an unfortunate typo).

Back on topic - next 10 days look unsettled for the western Alps. As @franga says, that should only improve the base in higher ski areas in the western Alps. A good season start in Tignes, Val Thorens, Zermatt etc. should be more or less assured in terms of snow depths. For lower altitudes looks like being snow-rain-snow (more rain than snow below ~1800m (?), not unusual for the time of year).
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@Rob Mackley, That's true just not convinced the area is going to see that much snow over next weekend, the local bod seems to think more rain than snow. As ever we shall see, its a few weeks before they open and is looking positive for that.
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@denfinella, Yep doing exactly as it should be and some , gradually moving down the mountain . In my experience really don’t start to see much below1800m till the start of Dec even in a good season .

It’s showing all the signs of a …….. I dare not say it !
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@Rob Mackley, don't usually (I don't think I ever have) seen quite as much above 1,800m quite as early as this Shocked
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
franga wrote:
Verbier, Zermatt and the high resorts in the Tarentaise will have a very enviable base by Christmas at this rate ...I'm not sure about the low lying resorts around Geneva though. Still very early days - I have a feeling this will be an overall decent season for the Alps.


Nevermind Xmas, there is already an enviable base above 2000m. In Verbier people are skiing the Attelas couloirs on the second week of November. This is unheard of. And there is buckets more snow in the forecast! Next Mon/Tues/Weds may do some damage up to 2500m but then it gets colder with more snow.

Low lying resorts need colder temps but also less base so its the days directly preceeding the trip that are key, not what is happening now.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

its the days directly preceeding the trip that are key, not what is happening now.

So true. But there's not much else to do in November besides the training Mad ,so a bit of vicarious excitement through webcam and forecast map watching is always good and as soon as the white stuff arrives the hopes start to soar Toofy Grin
The main thing I am looking for at this time of year is the development of any PWL that may run through the whole season - anyone any info on that just now Puzzled
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snow coming to higher parts of France and Switzerland for the next week.

Very rainy down low.

Maybe thundersnow at times.
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Poster: A snowHead


Cairngorm today.
Sorry, should have posted on Scotland thread Embarassed
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
As of yesterday, snowfall in the Northern French Alps so far this season is +90% higher than average.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like its been snowing all day in the French Alps - good to see
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Weathertoski (Updated: 11.20am Friday 10 November 2023 - More snow but much milder next week):

A cold front is moving across the Alps today, bringing snow to relatively low levels, heaviest in the west. After a relative reprieve tomorrow, further storms will move in from the west overnight on Saturday.

The weather will remain very unsettled in the Alps on Sunday, and into the first part of next week though, with much milder air in the mix, rain will increasingly become an issue, especially in the north-west.

Over the next few days, there will be a lot more snow in the higher resorts of the western Alps, especially in the French Tarentaise (e.g. Val Thorens, Tignes), where another 50-70cm is possible above 2000m by Sunday night. Most of the rest of the Alps will also see some new snow over the next 2-3 days, but with a general rule that the further south-east you are, the less there will be.

The rain/snow limit will typically be around 1000m over the next couple of days before starting to rise on Sunday, reaching 2500-2800m in the western Alps on Monday!

So, with snow depths already quite impressive at altitude in the north-western Alps (e.g Val d’Isère, Tignes, Verbier) and more in the forecast, the upper parts of these resorts have almost certainly already secured their early bases. Lower down in areas like the Portes du Soleil, however, a lot of this early snow will disappear next week.

In general, the further south and east you are, the less of an issue any rain will be next week, with the Dolomites, for example, escaping it completely. Although resorts in the south-eastern Alps may not have as much snow at altitude as some in the north-western Alps right now, by escaping most of next week’s rain, they will more easily hang on to it, relative to their height.
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I know these articles are received with a certain amount of scepticism around here but the various weather super computers are not seeing a particularly snowy European winter in prospect https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-increased-snow-depth-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
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This part will do me ……,

First, looking at the average image for Europe, we can see a very weak snowfall forecast. Most of the continent is forecast to have less snowfall than normal, except for the Alps and higher parts of northern Europe.
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@munich_irish, too late ... already snowed up, thanks.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@munich_irish, I read the article differently in so much as not snowy across Europe as a whole more due to temperature rather than precipitation . In fact in this article the ECMWF is forecasting less snowfall than normal apart from the Alps and Alpine areas . I read this as not cold but wet . Exactly what we are currently seeing .
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@Rob Mackley, not (super) cold but wet is not a terrible thing. Well, not in some places.
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Skiing cover decent all the way down to 1500m
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@BobinCH, that's looking really rather nice snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Zermatt Cervinia downhill cancelled, - too much snow!
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Piste skiing above Jochberg, Kitzbühel! This early, is that rare these days?

https://www.kitzbuehel.com/en/webcam/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@BobinCH, oh that really wets the whistle!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Snow&skifan, this seems to have been the biggest pre-season snow fall in a very long time ...
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Looks like longer range forecasts for December are showing a preference for NAO+/Scandinavian blocking, which would favor more mild conditions across Europe in the coming weeks:



For reference what a NAO+/blocking pattern looks like:

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@ajcrski, isn't this what @polo predicted, cold snowy November, warm December?

Will be interesting to go back later this season and see how the long term forecasts held up
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Meteo Tarentaise not too optimistic about Rain / snow level Sun/Mon , reckon with the torrential rain and snow melt there will be a lot of water knocking about the valleys

Eh oh! Eh oh! A busy Sunday...

As announced, Sunday will be very disturbed...
A disturbance will affect us from 03/04h next night, and will remain in place until Monday in our area.
At first weak, the rainfall will sharply strengthen from the end of the night, and until the afternoon, then the rainfall that is always present will decrease a bit.

Over the whole episode, by Monday morning, an accumulation of the order of 25/35mm is expected, locally up to 40mm on the most affected sectors.
The snow first presents the average mountain, will rise quickly during the day.

The LPN at the beginning of disturbance will be at 1500/1600m, then it will be found at sunrise on the rise to 1700/1800m.
This LPN could stay around 1800/1900m for a good part of the day, and could continue to rise at any late Sunday evening up to 2000m and even up to 2300m during the night Sunday to Monday under the latest rainfall, very locally up to 2400m!

Before the rainfall, it is likely to reach 15/20cm at 1800m before the rain arrives, locally more.
Above 2500m, the snow layer will continue to thicken, with accumulations of the order of 30/40cm expected, and locally up to 50cm above 3000m.
Nevertheless, the snow will get heavier and heavier up to 2500m.

A new, sometimes very disturbing episode should concern us next week.

Thank you for reading, have a good evening and a good weekend everyone!’?

Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise

Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr
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Looking at the webcams they have fired up the snow cannons at resort level in Tignes suggesting that they're not expecting the incoming rain to completely destroy the snow pack at 2100m or it would all be a waste
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@Snow&skifan, There are a couple of short pistes at Pass Thurn which they open early (sometimes late October) based on storing snow from the previous season, this is only really as a training slope for local ski clubs. So nothing open earlier than usual however from looking at the webcams there is a good deal more snow than typical at this time of year.
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@rambotion, testing?
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@under a new name, https://tignes.roundshot.com/lac/ still pumping it out in Tignes le Lac, so I would guess not a test
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@rambotion, Artificial snow piles will be largely unaffected by the rain spell next week , especially in Tignes where it will be short lived . They were also pumping it out in Sainte Foy this afternoon at 1750m . The stations will take every opportunity to make snow between now and the start of the season . Don’t forget they create huge piles that are relatively unaffected by warm spells and then spread it to create pistes days before opening .
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Meteo Alpes reckons over the next few days the (natural) snow layer in the northern French Alps will be preserved above 1900m, and will melt completely below 1500. Between 1500m & 1900m - depends on the sector / aspect etc.

So shouldn't be any issues (other than avalanche risk) in places like Tignes.
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Another 20cm overnight


On an already fantastic base snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/gtc2SC5-btc
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