 Poster: A snowHead
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| motdoc wrote: |
Everyone I know in London has friends in their 40/50s who have died. Here in BC where lockdown was early I don't know anyone who has had it! And lockdown is ending soon |
is that because all your friends know each other? I'm not sure this kind of anecdotal evidence helps - I don't anyone who has died, old or young. I know 3 people in total that have had it (and one of those only had light symptoms). But those numbers don't mean anything, and can't be used in anyway to reflect what is happening, so no point insinuating otherwise.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@snowhound, that's a fair point. You may well be right - though it does make me wonder why the scientists / health experts advising the government presumably supported the lockdown method.
@justabod, @Themasterpiece, again, fair points. I can think of some potential reasons why some countries appear (at this stage) to have "done better or worse", including population density, timing of lockdown, confidence in national government, climate, inter and intra- country travel, household demographics and many others. Obviously it's too early (and too difficult for me anyway) to attribute all the factors correctly. Having said that, it does seem fairly clear to me that:
1. the UK's lockdown reduced social contact more than Sweden's non-lockdown, and
2. reducing social contact reduces the spread of the virus.
- which suggests to me that the other potential reasons for the difference in countries' performances are very significant.
Sorry, this is indeed off-topic.
Back on topic - we've booked flights already and will be happy to book car hire if it's refundable. Apart from that, I think we'll wait - and we go skiing in low season, so there's normally less pressure to book a long time in advance anyway.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@snowhound, How would you deal with people who had the virus, and went around deliberately infecting other people?
We have already had a lady contract the virus and die after being spat on.
We responded as we did, as did most Countries, based on information available, and the possible outcome of the situation.
Do you honestly think we would not have taken drastic action with Spanish Flu IF we had understood what it was, and how it spread? Even antibiotics would have made a difference to that outcome, but they were not readily available in sufficient numbers for another 20 years
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is that because all your friends know each other? I'm not sure this kind of anecdotal evidence helps - I don't anyone who has died, old or young. I know 3 people in total that have had it (and one of those only had light symptoms). But those numbers don't mean anything, and can't be used in anyway to reflect what is happening, so no point insinuating otherwise.[/quote]
It's because my friends are medics in their 40s and mostly south Asian ethnicity.
You can use small sample sizes to show something exists. In this case a problem. I'm very aware of statistics, the availability heuristic and epidemiology having had a pretty thorough education. You can't use a small sample to show the absolute size of the problem. Given in the UK more people have died in three months than died in the blitz I'd say it's pretty big. What would you say?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@snowdave, "these estimates": plus Private Eye is printed in the UK whereas that paper looks at Italy.
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@NickyJ, TYPE 2 diabetes (stage 2 isn't a thing) is related to obesity and increases mortality. We know this.
Lower mortality per head and now moving out of lockdown = winning.
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@justabod, fair enough, you get your science from a satirical mag, and I'll continue to get it from scientists publishing in journals.
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@snowdave, my point was that the paper to which you refer is looking at a different country. We both known that inter-national variation has been enormous, look at the SE Asian nations compared to most of Europe for instance. I could find even lower death rates if I quoted a paper from SK for example.
The M.D. column is written by a serious bloke, Phil Hammond might be a bit of a media tart but I don't think he'd print guff. PE has lost it's balls in past years: not printing the Mohammed cartoons, supporting the wrong side on MMR and ignoring the Pakistani Muslim rape gangs in the North were pretty big mistakes but it deserves to be taken seriously.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@geoffers, thanks for the link to Dr Campbell - very informative.
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| motdoc wrote: |
You can use small sample sizes to show something exists. In this case a problem. I'm very aware of statistics, the availability heuristic and epidemiology having had a pretty thorough education. You can't use a small sample to show the absolute size of the problem. Given in the UK more people have died in three months than died in the blitz I'd say it's pretty big. What would you say? |
Yes, I'm also very aware of statistics (it's my job). I'm not saying that the UK issue isn't big, and I'm not saying that it isn't worst than other countries - I'm merely saying using a sample of a group of friends to base conclusions is not wise, and unfortunately it's something that people do time and time again. Using a wider set of data to draw conclusions, and then bringing them to life using personal experience is not an issue, and but it's just using one without the other that I don't understand.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@justabod, if you insist on using stats from a satirical magazine rather than a scientific journal, it's still worth quoting them correctly...
You said "Private Eye is quoting death rates for the 75-90 age group as being 0.44% of those who were infected"
Phil Hammond ACTUALLY said "60-69 years 1.3%, 70-79 year 4.28%, over 80 year 7.8%" (which is data from the Lancet, so I'm happy to accept it is likely to have been through a reasonable process).
Shurely shome mishtake m'lord? 
(and, as a reminder, the paper I quoted said "mean IFR of 2.6% for 70-79 age group c. 6.5% for 80-89 and c. 15% above that." which actually looks like it might be lower for Italy vs UK once we use the correct data)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Back to the OP, no we haven't and probably wont until there is some certainty on resort functionality.
I'm still hopeful of going to Italy in September but won't be surprised if we can't.
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@homers double, We are still hoping to go to Italy in August (booked last year). As long as we can drive through France to get there. Have also booked skiing as mentioned earlier in the thread.
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You know it makes sense.
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@homers double, Wow something about holidays, well done!
I'm also getting concerned about our Austria trip end August, P&O Hull/ Rotterdam ferry outbound and drive via B/ NL/ D on way back via tunnel. Assuming we'd be allowed across borders, and it involves a 14 day quarantine at both ends no point going, need to make a decision, think sadly it'll only be going one way.
Next winter, not booked any travel arrangements, and only way i'd go is by car not plane/ train for forseeable......could be the first missed season in a long time, not looking great atm.
Anyone anything positive known regards European travel prospects for late summer/ next winter?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I've got flights booked for Easter 2021, to go to Belle Plagne - I'm hoping that's late enough for everything to be sorted!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Honestly, 8 pages in and we're expected to be on-topic?
The good news I had today was that my travel insurance still covers all trips booked pre Mar-11 for full COVID cover. I was unclear, as the annual policy renews between now and then, so I thought they might force me to cancel rather than covering travel (which apparently insurers are entitled to do, as long as they wear the refund cost).
Fortunately, pre Mar-11, I'd already booked a couple of ski weekends for next season. As well as 2 long-haul family holidays later this year that may or may not happen depending on borders.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Based on nothing other than blind optimism (which I think is all Johnson says we need?) I’m predicting that most of Europe will be open for holiday travel in some form in July. The quarantine thing means Patel will have waved her metaphorical willy at the forriners and after the first three week review I reckon it’ll be removed for large swathes of Europe.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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OK booked Eurotunnel this morning for 3rd week of January - hopefully heading to Grand Massif.
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Not ideal being from Northern Ireland if flights are out.
Either: Ferry, drive Stranraer to Channel Tunnel, Drive to Alps.
Or:
Drive the length of Ireland, overnight ferry across Bay of Biscay (in January  ), drive to Alps.
Think it will probably be flying or nothing.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Booked Le Panoramic Flaine and tunnel with Erna Low February half term. Massive price hike from Odalys but we decided to stomach it next season as we planned to go back and book elsewhere the following year.
Can we restart the 'Driving Down February Half Term' thread.
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@haggishunter, x2!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Seeing as this thread is back on topic can we keep it roughly so. One of the best things about  's is that the mods allow topics to meander to and fro but it's getting ridiculous now?
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| robboj wrote: |
| Seeing as this thread is back on topic can we keep it roughly so. One of the best things about 's is that the mods allow topics to meander to and fro but it's getting ridiculous now? |
Yes I wish they wouldn't so much. The title of the post should determine the responses. If you want to bang on all day about C-19 and the like crack on but start a thread.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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[quote="James77"]
| robboj wrote: |
| If you want to bang on all day about C-19 and the like crack on but start a thread. |
another one??? there's already a shedload in apres
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If possible, we'd like to go back to the Dolomites next season, Corvara, early to mid March.
Anyone with experience of driving there? We will stop overnight in both directions and maybe for a couple of nights one way. Thinking about Strasbourg but any suggestions from the snowHeads collective would be most welcome.
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You know it makes sense.
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@agw, in the same boat, but thinking of Canazei. Been to Corvara twice, and you could do it with 1 overnight stop. 1st time we stopped near Augsburg (going through France/Belgium/Lux and into Germany), from Nottingham it took 16 hours including Eurotunnel, next day was in resort within 5 hours. 2nd time stopped near Karlsruhe which saved 2 hours on the 1st leg. Its not too bad as long as you don't travel on the Friday or Saturday....road from Stuttgart to Munich gets busy especially with the road works currently in place.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Simon94, thanks for that, good info.
We’ll probably do the longer stop on the way out - take in some sights etc. Took the train to Venice one year and spent a couple of nights there before getting the coach up to Alta Badia - that worked well so we thought we’d do something similar by car.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Just bought 2 x PdS Season Passes in the flash sale for EUR499 Each.
So ....... that would be a Yes from me.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| WindOfChange wrote: |
Just bought 2 x PdS Season Passes in the flash sale for EUR499 Each.
So ....... that would be a Yes from me. |
Me too!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just browsing Inghams and Skitotal (sister companies i think) there seem very few French chalet and chalet hotel holidays being thrown up as results for next season. Inghams searches throwing up lots more apartment and hotel results than anything else and most holidays on skitotal showing 'sold out' when i suspect they are anything but. It might be a website glitch. Just as likely it is my user error, but could it be they suspect chalet type holidays may be the most difficult to manage within whatever CV parameters they think will be in place at that point? So being sensible and trying to minimise their bookings of, and liabilities for, those holiday types for the moment?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Sounds like the tunnel/ferry/roads might be a bit busier next season!
Although that could lead to some flight bargains nearer the time!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Where's your sense of adventure?
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I suspect it will return when the autumn weather starts rolling in and I haven't got a ski trip booked yet 
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| Layne wrote: |
Sounds like the tunnel/ferry/roads might be a bit busier next season!
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Overnight stay places too.
Half Term shuttle is open for booking btw, may be a good idea to gamble and book now
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| Oleski wrote: |
| Layne wrote: |
Sounds like the tunnel/ferry/roads might be a bit busier next season!
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Overnight stay places too.
Half Term shuttle is open for booking btw, may be a good idea to gamble and book now |
This was exactly my theory on booking our January trip now, we've never booked earlier than November before.
Eurotunnel prices are already at the maximum I have ever paid, even leaving it until 3 weeks before travel (not peak school hol weeks mind) and I can only see them going one way in the autumn when people start planning in earnest and want to avoid flying.
Because we are using a friends chalet he doesn't want a deposit, so we are effectively only committing £43.75 for the four of us for an 8 day trip (7 days skiing) in 3rd week of January.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Ryunis, I don’t think it is skiing activity itself per se-apart from the occasional gondola (which take less than 15 minutes generally) it is all done outside in the fresh air. rather cramming people into bars which is the issue-which is the same everywhere.
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@toyah807, I think the current lack of chalet holidays is probably due to TOs being wary of committing at this stage to season-long leases from owners. And there will be a lot of negotiation over prices, because no-one knows what the demand will be. Some people are probably trying to increase prices to recoup losses, and because there may be capacity restrictions imposed, while others are reducing them because some income next year is better than none.
Even in a normal season some chalets only get added to TO offerings part way through the previous summer, as demand builds up. I think both owners and TOs are waiting until the possible lockdown situations over the winter are clearer. The issue doesn't arise quite so much with hotels and apartments.
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FAQ
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