 Poster: A snowHead
|
| Quote: |
my forthcoming lecture on the matter to the Institute of Chartered Statisticians.
|
when you will also be explaining why the "law of averages" means that if you've just thrown 4 "tails" in a row the next throw will probably turn up "heads"? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
pam w, yes
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
There is a valid point to be made 
Each throw of a coin is (notionally at least) a 'discrete' event unconnected with past or future throws of the coin.
OTOH weather events are related to past weather events so there is a justification for saying that a change in the weather is due IMHO....
Stand-by for a long and involved debate
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
11 Tails in a row. Took a while...PB. Would love to gain an insight into any long range forecasting for the week before Christmas (Tirol area) Ta
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Very cold start to next week in the Alps before it looks like temperatures get closer to average. ECM starts December still below average, GFS op is warmer, but a clear outlier.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
It's all (say it quietly....) looking pretty good for November. Snow cannons operating today in Les Saisies, and all looking very snowy. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
This week is where we've really started to miss our old place. Endless snowy piccies on facebook etc. Those of you who are more able than me to enjoy it all this year, have a great season. Starting this weekend by the look of it! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
pam w, stay off the Ashes thread please hun or you'll jinx that too
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Colder than average in the Alps for the foreseeable at present. Very cold first half of next week before a return to closer to seasonal average temperatures. Foe Scotland first half of next week looks unseasonably warm before cooling to closer to average.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
| red 27 wrote: |
| pam w, stay off the Ashes thread please hun or you'll jinx that too |
maybe we be better off if it was jinx !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
More fresh snow this morning at lake level in the Lake Geneva region
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
This time last year the 12/13 thread was on page 15 - would be interesting to see if 13/14 catches up (on assumption that there are far less "will there be snow in ******* when i go next friday" comments this year because of the early season storms). Certainly hope not till mid-Jan anyway
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
^ I said the same and got corrected!! IT COULD ALL STILL MELT.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Just have a look at the web cam archives there was a lot less snow on the ground same time last year, then it dumped, I am confident that base is now going to stay and hopefully the levels will continue to grow in the coming weeks 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
harri20000, and a few years ago there was a mega dump in late November which mostly disappeared - the freezing level went up to 3000m for some time. However, it is looking good at the moment and resorts are making snow to ensure a good base. There's no sign of a huge warming at the moment...... but no reason to put away your snow-dancing shoes, either.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
Ha! The Monty Hall Problem - some people never get that one no matter how many different ways you explain it. And if you offer to play it with them they say "Oh I haven't got time for that" Grrr. (Mrs agw is wonderful in many ways but sometimes.....)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
looking bone dry for the foreseeable future, with a worryingly warm early-Dec GFS outlier 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| red 27 wrote: |
| looking bone dry for the foreseeable future, with a worryingly warm early-Dec GFS outlier |
I should make clear this is a Franco-centric comment, selfishly based on my forthcoming 3V trip
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Now looking like cold but dry.... Bit like Siberia...
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Good indications on 12z GFS of further snow in the Alps around the end of next week with the jet stream diving south.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three pretty cold blasts showing up in the GFS ensembles this evening, from tomorrow, again as we go into next weekend and then (and more tentatively) around 04/05 December.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
nozawaonsen, starting to read your posts daily now - I really should do other things but I just cant help myself
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
a few little ripples of moisture too I see - fingers crossed!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Hopefully some snow. Severe cold + thin (relatively) snowpack a dodgy combination
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
LWD Tirol is up and running for the season
http://lawine.tirol.gv.at/en/
with some thoughts on the risk of snowdrifts (recent snow plus high winds) at altitude and cautioning on gleitschneelawinen at lower altitudes.
The blogs running too, auf Deutsch.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
ECM has cold weather pushing down on 07 December (that's the far edge of ECM's 10 day reach).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nice
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well..... persistent anticyclone? They can get stuck for ages, which is far from good news at this point, though v pleasant when they bring the sun later, when the snow cover is good.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Not good. I suspect it is highly likely we will not see any substantial snow fall for a good few weeks now, hopefully Nosa will correct me!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Looks like relatively light snow for parts of the Alps this weekend. Given snowcover in the Alps is good for the time of year and temperatures look generally colder than average I can't see much to be too concerned about.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
