 Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 06z operational certainly pushed the snowier FI option in parts of Alps from 11 March... |
Hmmmm - We talk about it alot, but where exactly is this Fantasy Island? Maybe I could swap my Swiss trip to go there instead. I like the look of that forecast! 
EDIT - Grammar
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 2-03-11 17:08; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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that would be sweet indeed, especially if it continued to snow all the way up to around the 18th or 19th leaving nice fresh snow for the week of the 20th 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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12z GFS... was a bit corrupted and mucked up. Not sure I'd pay it much attention (wasn't bad though).
The 10/11 March period is just starting to cross into high res, so will be interesting to see how it plays over next couple of days...
Overall, it looks more unsettled from that period. Let's see though.
In the meantime sunshine, and some cold temperatures at the start of next week!
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Netweather and Metcheck don't seem to like the 12z either. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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hedley, netweather uses GFS so no surprise there. Quite possibly Metcheck do to, but I don't go near there...
18z and 00z GFS both keeping something in the frame for 10/11 March to a greater or lesser extent. Will be interesting to see how it goes through the day...
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I'm loving the prospect of near continuous small snow falls leading up until our arrival in the alps on the 20th
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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shoogly, chances of that happening are slim IMHO....unless April showers kick in early and often
Chamonix Meteo for example is pretty blunt over the next few days out until Saturday :
PRECIPITATION : none.
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kitenski, i know, i know... but we live in hope!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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12z GFS ensembles continue to suggest a shift to more unsettled weather from the end of next week...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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these wigglies torture us with their promises and their false dawns...
spikes rise and fall, long projected mega dumps wither and die, but what NEVER happens is that a spike suddenly rises like Excalibur from the flatlines of the next few days to give us all a lovely surprise...
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
what NEVER happens is that a spike suddenly rises like Excalibur from the flatlines of the next few days to give us all a lovely surprise...
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no, and that's just as well really, if those models are to be worth looking at at all. If they got it so hopelessly wrong in the near term, might as well toss a few chicken feathers. I am pleased now that I didn't allow myself to get excited yesterday.....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| red 27 wrote: |
these wigglies torture us with their promises and their false dawns...
spikes rise and fall, long projected mega dumps wither and die, but what NEVER happens is that a spike suddenly rises like Excalibur from the flatlines of the next few days to give us all a lovely surprise... |
..but in reality what does happen as we saw in Stuben this past week was a tiny 1day spike turns into a very decent few days dump 
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Poster: A snowHead
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kitenski, Ah, Stuben.... If only I could carry that micro-climate around with me
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
I am pleased now that I didn't allow myself to get excited yesterday.....
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What was here to get excited about yesterday that isn't there today? Charts continue to show a more unsettled outlook from the end of next week. Indeed tonight's ensembles are a lot snowier in FI both the operational and control. Whilst it obviously won't actually play out like that, it's not bad to have these sorts of indications.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Good, thanks. My exciting bits are back now. 
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18z GFS starts to look... rather cold... rather snowy... in the Alps... from the end of next week...
Worth keeping an eye on as this evening's GFS sees a series of low pressure systems rolling in from the north...
If this verified it would bring snow to the northern half of the UK by the middle of next week...
Will be interesting to see if this pattern continues through tomorrow...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Slightly more high pressure influenced outlook this morning. Still unsettled from end of next week. Less so than yesterday evening's output. More so than GFS 00z yesterday. Control in particular is strong. Pattern still sorting itself out...
Cold Arctic air moving across the Alps Sunday into Monday. Fair amount of sun this weekend more so through first half of next week.
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nozawaonsen, fingers crossed for some big dumpage and cold weather at the end of this month and into April
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Quite a few 06z runs went for pretty snowy options...
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Cold and snowy in Alps round 10/11 March on GFS 12z too... (still a week away mind... )
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, can you see your way to making sure that it has stopped by the 13th (for the drive up the mountain in my RWD Merc) please 
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Freddie Paellahead, that's really pushing your luck, you know!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Yeah - but last week they were saying that for the 5th!  Just seems to keep getting pushed back
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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cathy,not too sure who "they" are?
For what it's worth last weekend it looked to me like this weekend would on balance see the low pressure push too far east to have too much impact on the Alps in terms of snowfall (possibly something light for the eastern Alps), but that it would probably bring some colder temperatures. That's pretty much how it looks now, though cold continues to look more likely than snow.
The second push of cold weather and snow for the end of next week looked more determined to me last weekend. That still looks to be the case this evening too. Is that how it will play out? We'll see...
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You know it makes sense.
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GFS 00z operational runs are set against the mean this morning.
The mean (the average of all the ensembles), takes things colder and snowier from the end of next week...
The operational rather milder and drier.... (even one or two days out)
So worth watching the next couple of runs to see if the operational is just an outlier or whether it is actually trying to push a different set up.
Starting to see snowier outlooks for the end of next week appear in a few other models too now... So, far from certain, but well worth watching...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Thanks for the regular updates nozawaonsen
I'll be watching closely this week as we are off to Chatel on Friday evening
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Poster: A snowHead
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Thicko question here ... last night on snow-forecast.com lots of snow in £V on Thursday / Friday mow it's gone ... how / why does that happen, was looking forward to some freshies at the back end of next weeks holiday 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| stevew wrote: |
| Thicko question here ... last night on snow-forecast.com lots of snow in £V on Thursday / Friday mow it's gone ... how / why does that happen, was looking forward to some freshies at the back end of next weeks holiday |
Because it was a forecast, and they change, sometimes rapidly as you've found, it could swing back, it may not.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| stevew wrote: |
| Thicko question here ... last night on snow-forecast.com lots of snow in £V on Thursday / Friday mow it's gone ... how / why does that happen, was looking forward to some freshies at the back end of next weeks holiday |
They are not really that reliable more than three days in advance.....
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Thanks I thought that might be the case ....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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stevew, there are a number of different numerical weather models associated with different national meteorological organisations.
So:
GFS the US model run by the NCEP (and through that the NOAA and then the US department of commerce).
ECMWF the EU model.
UKMO the UK met office (at least for now part of the MOD)
DWD/GME the Deutsche Wetterdienst.
BOM the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
JMA the Japanese Marine Authority.
NOGAPS the US Navy
etc, etc...
Many of these (notably GFS and ECM) run ensembles, which try to take account of the fluid and chaotic nature of weather patterns by shifting very slightly the input data which subsequently has significant impact on the outcome. So they have several different runs with slight changes to the inputs. You can see this on the GFS charts above with each of the different coloured lines representing a different ensemble run.
The thick green line is the operational, run at the highest resolution. So potentially the most accurate, but this very high resolution can also make it prone to larger fluctuations due to its sensitivity. Hence the control run, the thick blue line.
A number of commercial weather forecasting products, including for example snow-forecast, use I believe the operational run of the GFS model as their initial data point. This simplifies the ensemble chart by cutting away the other ensembles and makes it easier to come up with a chart which shows cms of snowfall (there are a number of other products which do this in similar or more graphic fashions). But even if predicting precipitation was not in itself very complex and difficult, by cutting away the rest of the ensembles it means you have little feel for the confidence for any particular outcome. So in my opinion, snow-forecast sacrifices some of the complexity of the forecast for simplicity and easier graphic display. This also leaves it rather at the mercy of the fluctuations of the sometimes over sensitive GFS operational run.
Looking at the overall ensemble runs I still think there is a reasonable chance of some snowfall at the end of next week. We will have a clearer idea by the end of tomorrow (and obviously clearer as we get closer). In general beyond 5 to 7 days you are looking at trends rather than detail. And the trend for a while now has been for snow at the end of next week.
What we now need to see is that trend sustained and cross model support to develop over the next few days. Paying too much attention to one particular run is not really worth the effort unless it is very near, you need to see how they develop over time.
I would also suggest that within the two to three day time frame mesoscale (ie small scale) models are probably more likely to be helpful than synoptic (larger scale) models. Which is why I tend to start looking at WRF when we get close in rather than for example GFS.
Hope that helps...
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nozawaonsen, thanks that makes a lot of sense for a meteorological numpty like me
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what an appropriate typo 
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Lou, hadn't thought of it that way but yes I have to agree....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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If i read my wigglies right both blue & green runs calling for a cold spell out in the arlberg in fi.....
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sat 5-03-11 21:10; edited 1 time in total
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kitenski, yes 12z GFS was cooler all round, but it was pretty mild for the 00z. Also there is not even any real consensus for the end of next week, let alone the week after... Other than it is tending to look more unsettled from the 10/11 March...
So I'm waiting to see how it all looks this time tomorrow evening...
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