 Poster: A snowHead
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snowing steadily all night and all day in La Giettaz.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Below is the 12z WRF showing 10am tomorrow. This set up looks to be in place until about the same time on Tuesday. There could be some light snow across the rest of the Alps overnight, but the main snowfall over the next 36 hours looks like it will be focussed on North West Italy (just possibly reaching across the border into France and Switzerland in places)
From midweek it looks like it will be clearing up (in the east first) with clouds being replaced by sun.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The snow just continues to fall across the central Pyrenees. It would be fair to say that in the last 7 - 10 days there has been a cumulative total of somewhere between 100cm and 150cm. Cooler temperatures have lowered the snow line down to 600m, and at 1800m now that the wind has died down today's fresh is somewhere between 15 and 20cm, and the heavy off piste from a few days ago is now superb, light snow on top of a hard supporting base.
The only negative is that the avalanche risk remains high to very high with a very unstable snow pack.
Current depths:
Superbagneres: 145H 125L (15cm fresh)
Peyragudes: 150H 90L (10cm fresh)
Baqueira Beret: 215H 145L (35cm fresh)
Excellent conditions for the hoards of Toulouse skiers now on their vacance!!
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anyone got any thoughts on the Scottish mountain weather going into this weekend?
probably heading up either sat or sun for a pre holiday ski 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, 'Threatening snow' I like that, particularly for Vendredi 11 mars 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, is it just me or does that suggest Scotland could get particularly snowy/wet?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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and windy?
looks like the low pressure in the med is about to move into the southern alps.
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Is this low confidence the reason why we ended up with 50cm of snow over the last two days when snowforecast expected 3cm? It did seem to come from an unusual direction. Is alot of the modelling based on "normal" expected patterns rather than direct extrapolation of the pressure systems interactions (I suppose it must be a synthasis of both...and the lack of agreement between the models due to some being more based more on one aspect than the other) ? More snow showers are now expected down here until friday (Pyrenees), then clearing up next week but looking at the pressure maps there seems to be little reason for why it is currently snowing here (albeit lightly).
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
the reason why we ended up with 50cm of snow over the last two days when snowforecast expected 3cm
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This last couple of months has left me very suspicious of online sites. I appreciate they get it right sometimes. But when there are so many competing factors, as now, it just doesn't work.
I find that somehow the people in resort (ski fitters, ski instructors, pisteurs) seem to know exactly when it will snow, but I have no idea where they get their info from. Presumably they have a dried marmot's foot dangling outside their back door or something
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Haven't we all learnt by now that predicting amounts is very, very hard to do?
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Poster: A snowHead
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To be honest I think it all depends where you are looking and what you are looking at.
As has been mentioned several times now snow-forecast, like a number of other sites, is largely based on the operational run of GFS. Using just the operational run is very limiting and increases the fluctuation from run to run.
I also think you are better off using other models like WRF in the 2 to 3 day range. WRF has been consistently better at predicting where snow will fall.
The "low confidence" is because I was looking at + 240 charts which frankly are always low confidence, especially if the models are diverging. Good GFS 12z FI for Austria for what it's worth...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
I find that somehow the people in resort (ski fitters, ski instructors, pisteurs) seem to know exactly when it will snow
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Not always. A couple of years ago, when people were borrowing our place at half term, I'd been watching the GFS - and Snowheads - and warned them that it looked like BIG snow as they were leaving. They'd rented a car on the French side of Geneva and had not been able to get chains with it, apparently. I advised them to go and buy chains in the resort, on Friday morning, when GFS and meteo France and meteo Chamonix were all in agreement on the snow - but when they asked the ski shop man (who sells chains) he told them it wasn't going to snow much at all, and they decided that "local knowledge" had to be best.  On the Saturday they couldn't move, certainly couldn't get anywhere to buy chains. Eventually they followed a plough into the village, slipping and sliding all over the place, bought chains, then couldn't fit them quickly, missed their flight, big dramas.
I'd been nagging on about chains for MONTHS and told them to rent a Swiss car. All a waste of breath.
GFS precipitation forecasts are certainly flatlining the first half of March....  The sun will be nice, though.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, we ALWAYS listen to you on here Pam - silly man in ski shop Know Nothing! 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| Haven't we all learnt by now that predicting amounts is very, very hard to do? |
hear, hear... 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| carled wrote: |
| kitenski wrote: |
| Haven't we all learnt by now that predicting amounts is very, very hard to do? |
hear, hear... |
welcome back !
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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carled, hello stranger! And welcome back indeed.
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OMG! 
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Where is the fatted calf?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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carled, good evening.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Hells Bells wrote: |
| carled, good evening. |
Hi Helen. How's the other half's back coming on this year? Is he back in full-on mode yet or still struggling with damp & cold days?
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You know it makes sense.
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carled, the broken neck is fine, and , yes, he is once again 'full on' but he has coincidentally hurt his back this week, and we're off to Serre che next Thursday (10th).
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Hurtle wrote: |
| carled, hello stranger! And welcome back indeed. |
Sorry Hurtle - missed you in the excited flurry (ha) of replies. Thanks also to Smokin Joe and Red 27 for the greetings as I recognise both names from a dim and distant past. I do miss the happy chat and abuse (in both directions) but I've had some upheaval in work life that has led to somewhat reduced circumstances at present. A year off will do me good and hopefully the snow will continue to cooperate with my lack of attendance. Yes, yes, I know that some of you have alternative agendas involving copious amounts of the white stuff but as I'm feeling particularly selfish at present I can only hope that the slushfest continues.
I do have a feeling in the far regions of the nadderlings that a mid to late March snowfest will ensue. Mainly as this is around the time I had earmarked for this year's trip, of course, so the snowgods are sharpening their wits for their enjoyment at my expense, I'm sure.
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Poster: A snowHead
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carled, as I will be in Serre Che in mid-March I do hope you're right.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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carled, sorry to hear about your 'upheaval', hope everything sorts itself out and that you will be raring to go again next season.
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I do have a feeling in the far regions of the nadderlings that a mid to late March snowfest will ensue.
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<Sigh> have definitely decided not to go away at that time, although I'd earmarked the second half of March for a trip as usual. Nothing now until the EoSB, when it will be a case of 'hunt the snowflake' I expect. Still, I can hardly complain, having had excellent snow in Tignes in December and Whistler last week. Only in the parallel universe that is snowHeads could I dare to moan about the insufficiency of three ski holidays: when I was still a normal person, one or maximum two weeks per season more than sufficed.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
we ALWAYS listen to you on here Pam - silly man in ski shop Know Nothing!
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yeah, well, sarcasm aside, it was meteo France, meteo Chamonix, GFS and the SHs resident experts whose nadderling-readouts I was passing on - and at 24 hours out, anyone who ignores all those, when they are in complete agreement, in favour of one local guy who was probably badly hungover, has to be nuts. It cost them many hundreds of pounds and some extreme stress.
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I do have a feeling in the far regions of the nadderlings that a mid to late March snowfest will ensue
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best thing I've heard for a while.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| carled wrote: |
| I do have a feeling in the far regions of the nadderlings that a mid to late March snowfest will ensue. Mainly as this is around the time I had earmarked for this year's trip, of course, so the snowgods are sharpening their wits for their enjoyment at my expense, I'm sure. |
Sounds spot on to me...
only cause we're booked for the 20th though
so. what other web forums are you wasting your time on instead of snowheads?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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pam w, meteo.chamonix.com seems to be no more - I get a 404 
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ta
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| shoogly wrote: |
| carled wrote: |
| I do have a feeling in the far regions of the nadderlings that a mid to late March snowfest will ensue. Mainly as this is around the time I had earmarked for this year's trip, of course, so the snowgods are sharpening their wits for their enjoyment at my expense, I'm sure. |
Sounds spot on to me...
only cause we're booked for the 20th though
so. what other web forums are you wasting your time on instead of snowheads? |
Sounds fab - as I'm back to Les Arcs 9 April
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06z operational certainly pushed the snowier FI option in parts of Alps from 11 March...
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FAQ
