 Poster: A snowHead
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@Handy Turnip, exactly, and being told its too far off! I know. Here in Liverpool and not in any way decrying the terrible fortune of many in the UK at all, we had Stiff breeze and drizzle Dennis. Forecasting is a very difficult thing. Hope is free, and I cling to what little evidence I have to support a good holiday.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Smokin Joe, I'm away first week of March too so your prediction is actually a certainty. Trust me, I'm a meteorologist.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Another looking for positivity for first week of March
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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munich_irish, I think the Scottish lot will be quite happy with your chart too.
Lets hope it comes off.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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"Forecasting is hard, but hope is free"
@twoodwar, love it! That should be the motto for the thread!
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@twoodwar, can you share the link to that site please?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Handy Turnip, pleased to oblige, I'm a numbers man, and credit for words is rare! cheers 
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@twoodwar, @Handy Turnip, have adjusted page one.
Another wet weekend for UK in prospect...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, an honor indeed! 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen,
Should be snowy in the mountains though
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You know it makes sense.
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But what, but what almost everyone (actually no one, but shh) asks... has happened to the Twoodar Long Shot City Bet?
Actually it’s rolling along okay. Not huge, but cold and snow to the northern Alps. Some amplification clearly in the earlier FI runs, but not too shabby as currently modelled.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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if I was a betting man i'd be tempted with a fiver each way.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
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Beach weather incoming for Majorca. Beautiful all throughout the Mediterranean!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Bad news - Guidance has been getting progressively drier for Wednesday. There might still be a little fluff factor given the cooler temperatures. Arlberg - Nordkette - Dachstein special.
Good news - That trough shown on the GFS next Wednesday is much higher amplitude and the axis is further west than previous runs. Let's hope it holds. Austria might even get tickled by a pseudo backdoor front as early as Monday.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Latest Candide video! Not slowing down.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Snowing heavily in Samoens Village this morning should be a nice top up if it can continue all morning as forecast
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Snowing here in Abondance at 1000m. Chamonix Meteo forecast suggests 10-20cm at 1800 by the end of this snowfall. Not a game changer but nice to see just the same!
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| alj wrote: |
| Snowing here in Abondance at 1000m. Chamonix Meteo forecast suggests 10-20cm at 1800 by the end of this snowfall. Not a game changer but nice to see just the same! |
The upper end of that range seems a little optimistic based on the current radar. But considering the higher snow to liquid ratios and lighter winds than recent events, maybe some locally favored slopes will cash in. Hopefully the steady snow lasts well into the afternoon.
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Snowing heavily and steadily in the Arlberg.
Little in the way of early March excitement in the last couple of runs. Fickleness of FI.
Very mild weekend coming up. Won’t be unpleasant in the sun, but will feel strangely warm for February. Still looks like cooling down again at least briefly midweek.
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06z and the FI train is right back on the tracks!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, it's like an emotional rollercoaster! 
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Fairly chucking down snow here in Flims/Laax, great to see.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Still snowing heavily in the Arlberg.
ECM has cold weather arriving on 27/28 February.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
06z and the FI train is right back on the tracks!
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Yes even the ensembles showing more pertubations with increased precipitation compared to the overnight runs. And dare i say it, even the temperatures are looking lower out into FI compared to earlier runs. However, feet firmly on the ground as the first precipitation spikes ( for the Dolomites at least) are 7 days away and thats plenty of time for the forecast to change (for better or worse).
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I'd go with persistence at least until we can get a significant change inside at least 7 days. Those charts above look a lot like the long-range charts that we've been seeing over the past 3 weeks. So I will expect a mild and active pattern that favors the north and northwestern Alps until a significant change gets into a range where it could be real. Out beyond 192hrs there are significant differences between the ECM, GFS, and GEM.
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You know it makes sense.
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Shorter-term the GFS is still showing a threat of a mini-stau behind a modest shortwave sliding east of Austria early Monday. Precipitation with the front looks generally light right now, and it doesn't have a ton of support. But I think it warrants watching for a possible sneaky powder day in areas like Maria Alm, Dachstein, Loser, Krippenstein, and Tauplitz etc. And it could easily shift further west and wetter.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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We just had the biggest wintry event of the season just south of Munich! 2cm of graupel in 6 minutes! Started with a temperature just above 3°C and now everything including streets are covered. Watch out if you are in southern Bavaria. It looks like a summer squall line on radar. I may have even heard thunder.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@altaski8, yep there are a couple of lighting flashes on the map for about 40 minutes ago in the Starnberg area. Another one just popped up a bit further east.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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In ste foy it has been pelting down all day. Very deep powder for us all to swim in  . Woooooohooooo. A great day.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Light snow in town over here now too.
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@dannyboy23, +1. Been a great day in Ste Foy. Looking forward to blue sky tomorrow.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@twoodwar still looks to be in the money as a cold blast looks to be on the cards for 26/27 February on 12z GFS.
Snow line will descend as the snowfall starts.
It then looks like briefly warming up before possibly another cold shot on 29 Feb/01 March. Both this and the 26/27 potential both have good support from the control run, obviously confidence drops off quite quickly with the latter option given how far out it still is. Also worth noting that the op run version for the end of the month would bring in precipitation to the western end of the Alps before temperatures drop. One to keep a watch on either way.
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I agree @nozawaonsen, the 12z GFS was a snowy run for all but the southern Alps. Starting mid next week would be a very active stretch for several days, including at least two days with snow to the the valley floors.
Regarding the control run - I don't think it's very significant that the control is similar to the operational. In my experience, it almost always is. I only find it useful for comparing the operational run to individual ensemble runs since - I believe - they are run at the same resolution. But for that level of detail to be worthwhile, I generally only make the comparison within 120 hours.
I think the magnitude of ensemble spread, run-to-run continuity, and the inter-model consistency is much more important for providing support for a particular outcome.
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@altaski8, don’t disagree with any of the points in the third para. If the control is at odds with the op then it causes me to ponder! But for now we are slowly generating some continuity of sorts on GFS. Early days!
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@altaski8, don’t disagree with any of the points in the third para. If the control is at odds with the op then it causes me to ponder! But for now we are slowly generating some continuity of sorts on GFS. Early days!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| If the control is at odds with the op then it causes me to ponder! |
Very true.
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Parts of Norway due 200-400cm of snowfall at altitude in the next 1-2 weeks.
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FAQ
