 Poster: A snowHead
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Here's this evening's SLF update for Switzerland.
Increasing avalanche danger due to snowfall
"Current conditions
On Sunday it was overcast in southern regions, elsewhere there were foehn-induced bright intervals in some places. In the southern Simplon region and in Ticino there was 15 to 30 cm of snowfall above approximately 2000 m. The midday temperature at 2000 m was zero degrees. The wind was blowing at moderate to strong velocity from southerly directions...
Short-term development
On Sunday night and during the day on Monday, snowfall is anticipated widespread. The snowfall level will drop from about 1500 m down to about 1000 m. By Monday evening in the central part of the southern flank of the Alps, in the Gotthard region and in the regions bordering to the north, 40 to 60 cm of new fallen snow is expected; in the remaining regions, 20 to 40 cm of fresh fallen snow widespread. In the furthermost western regions, less than 20 cm of snowfall is anticipated..." [SLF]
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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From midweek looks like much more spring like conditions will return. Which should be pleasant especially after the snow at the start of the week. It does however look like it will be very warm by the end of the week.
This evening's output continues to suggest that next weekend may see a further spell of light snow and a cooling towards more average temperatures.
Out into FI the spring conditions return before we see a hint once again of colder weather pushing in at the start of April. Obviously far to far out to take seriously at this stage.
And an early warning...
Clocks go forward next Sunday morning!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Here's a comparison of the last two winters in the US.
Whither our winters? The last two were a study in contrasts.
"Both of the last two winters departed from the La Niña script, but in starkly different ways (see maps, below). In 2010–11, the contiguous United States saw its 37th coldest winter in 116 years of recordkeeping. The biggest departures from normal were located east of the Rockies.
La Niña returned in 2011–12, albeit more weakly, but U.S. temperatures were almost a mirror image of the year before (see maps, again). This time the lower 48 states saw their fourth warmest winter on record. And the mildness was most concentrated in the Midwest and East—the same areas that froze in 2010–11"
There's been quite a bit of early spring snow in parts of the US. Overall though much of the US has still had a below average year (parts of Alaska have had very snowy weather mind you).
Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal
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There was a mild earthquake in west Switzerland a few days ago.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Nothing to get very excited about in this morning's output. Downgrading of potential snowfall next weekend. Still some distant and very vague hints of colder weather in furthest FI (first week of April), but the pattern to beat is once again dry and mild. Still it will be very pleasant.
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The BBC concur that this high is going to hang around for a few more weeks....
Monday 2 April—Sunday 15 April
Bye bye high
As we go into the first two weeks of April, the stubborn area of high pressure looks as though it may finally move off to the west and let low pressure return.
This will bring brisk winds from the north or northwest, allowing it to turn colder than average across the country, and increasing the chance of rain. Such wind directions at this time of year are responsible for those famous April showers, meaning some places in the south and east could remain quite sheltered, dry and sunny.
Thus, the signals suggest that while rainfall amounts will be near normal in the north and west, the south and east will continue with their rainfall deficit. Sunshine amounts will increase, especially in the south and east, but with clear skies and cold air it is likely to be cold and frosty by night in many parts.
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ECM picking up on a possibility of some cooler weather from early next week.
ECM 00z +168
Not something that's really showing up in GFS. Will be interesting to see if it crops up this evening.
Further out and ECM hints at a push from the north at the end of March, start of April. Which is something that has been appearing over several runs, and if not yet with high confidence, certainly worth watching.
ECM 00z +240
Here's the Lawinenwarndienst Tirol blog.
Bis zu 50cm Neuschnee bei wenig Windeinfluss - kurzfristig ist mit zahlreichen Lockerschneelawinen zu rechnen
- 20cm to 30cm of fresh snow up to 50cm locally.
- Little wind effect.
- Some great powder snow, followed by some dreamlike Firn snow!
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Parts of the north west of Canada and the US have been in the midst of a huge storm cycle over the last week.
"We have received over 140 inches of snowfall in the past 10 days and 187 inches for the month of March so far! During this time of huge snowpack be sure to watch out for low chair clearance in some areas." [Mount Baker]
"Very large, very destructive avalanches are expected this weekend. Some of these will likely overrun low angle terrain, striking valley bottom and it’s possible that historical boundaries will be extended in some avalanche paths." [British Columbia Avalanche advisory - since lessened]
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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They will start updating about now. The Hi res part of the run should be complete by 16:30pm and the low res part soon after that
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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kitenski, the ensembles on wetter.de update about 6 hours after the run. So that link will update by about 1815z.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| kitenski, the ensembles on wetter.de update about 6 hours after the run. So that link will update by about 1815z. |
But I still see the 6z, so it's it 12 hours after the run time???
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kitenski, no because it's not 1815z for another hour? At which point it will be 6 hours.
It is incidentally rather a good run in FI for early April. Cold and snowy. Though FI.
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, sorry being very, very stupid, I blame an early train to London today!
I am not getting my hopes up yet for April 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Broadly the same pattern this morning. Albeit without the tempting 12z GFS chart of yesterday evening.
High pressure continues to rule the roost through to the end of March. There looks like being a slight possiblity of light snow showers on Sunday into Monday. But otherwise warm, sunny and settled weather looks like being the order of the day.
But heading into early April, there are continuing suggestions (not more yet) of colder weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_745_ens.png is looking a bit excitable from the 30th March onwards. Lets all hope it gets better and better as the month progresses. I have the first week of April booked in VT so hoping for plenty of fresh powder
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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chriswg, that liveliness means it's all up in the air, no agreement between the models, but worth watching.....
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I think I'm getting addicted to GFS models. I find myself hitting refresh every time an update is due 
At what point do the models start to get >50% reliable? I'm assuming around the +96h mark?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| chriswg wrote: |
I think I'm getting addicted to GFS models. I find myself hitting refresh every time an update is due
At what point do the models start to get >50% reliable? I'm assuming around the +96h mark? |
I would usually be confident of what a model shows for the Alps up to 72 away if they show the possibility of snow. If the charts show high pressure then I would be confident up to 120 hours.
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Quite a split between this afternoon's GFS and ECM at the end of the month.
ECM 12z +240
GFS 12z +240
ECM suggests cold and possibly snowier weather would push down from the north towards the Alps in early April. GFS still has high pressure sitting over the UK and any colder weather would be hundreds of miles further east.
Obviously you'd need to see some sort of consistency between the two models before it would be possible to have any confidence in either solution. GFS has hinted at colder weather in early April in a number of runs recently, but certainly not consistently (it would in any case be something of a surprise if it was in FI).
It may become clearer which solution is picking up support in the next day or two.
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GFS 18z +240
The detail are different (and it's far enough out that it will still slip back and forth from run to run), but the 18z adds to the trend towards a northerly push.
In the meantime high pressure ("Harry" this one is called) is going to keep things mild, settled and very spring like.
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"In view of the temperatures, firn snow may be available by midday today." [LWD Tirol]
Sunny, warm, spring. Just make sure the beer is cold.
Looking further out still suggestions of colder weather pushing in early April, certainly no confidence in that yet and in particular on the detail of when. ECM continues to lead the charge.
ECM 00z +240
This would have cold weather in northern Europe and heading towards the Alps.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, keeping a very close eye on the cooler start to April, looks like temps hold and rise as March continues from my inexperienced eye....
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Am I to assume then that the possibility of a top up this weekend has dissapeared entirely?
Ho hum, a week of skiing, soaking up the sun and enjoying cold beers on the terraces, I expect nothing but sympathy for poor me!! 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Depends where you're going SkiG, I follow cycling, and a race called Volta Catalunya is in havoc at the moment. Yesterday's stage was due to finish at Port Aine, but they had to finish earlier as it was snowing heavily. Riders went on to their hotels to stay overnight and some are snowed in unable to make today's stage!
Sounds like there's been a fair amount of snow in the Pyrenees.
[url]https://twitter.com/#!/nicholasroche/status/182720766670938113/photo/1[/url]
[url]https://twitter.com/#!/nicholasroche/status/182746978327855104/photo/1[/url]
[url]https://twitter.com/#!/nicholasroche/status/182761499062845440/photo/1[/url]
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I'm off to the 3V, and it looks like nothing but sunshine and blue sky!
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The divergence between the GFS Operation and Control runs from 1st April is interesting!
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You know it makes sense.
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GFS 06z and 12z have now latched onto a northern push at the end of March start of April. It's still a very unstable set of ensembles and at this stage I wouldn't hazard much beyond that. Let's see how ECM looks over the next 20 minutes.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Very much like this morning ECM shows cold weather pushing towards the Alps from the north on 01 April.
ECM 12z +240
What's different this evening is that the last two GFS runs have suggested a similar shift.
So confidence in a change of pattern increasing. Details still to be determined.
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Poster: A snowHead
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It's certainly been warm in the Alps during much of March. But it's been as nothing compared to the recent heat in the North East US which has seen date records being completely rewritten.
Northeast Heat
Burlington, Vermont 81F. Previous date record 68F.
Bangor, Maine 83F. Previous date record 64F.
Caribou, Maine 73F. Previous date record 57F.
Marquette, Michigan 81F. Previous date record 49F.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Rain due in the lower Alps next week.
Parts of Andorra received a 100cm puke in 24hrs yesterday.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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http://www.killingtonzone.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=34582
'The Big K' in Vermont is having a nightmare season. I guess they'll be quietly dropping their 'first to open, last to close' strap line.
Skied an Easter week there quite a few years back, personally didn't like the mountain much (way too regimented & too many skiers per square foot) but it had plenty snow & enjoyed staying in Rutland. Shame though ... I wonder how many Brits were scheduled for Easter ?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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nozawaonsen, To my untrained eye GFS seems to be showing it wet and warm in the Alps for the first week of April rather than cold and snowy??  Appreciate that it's all FI etc at the moment.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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pjd, end of the month, start of April it looks cold and snowy on GFS this morning, particularly in the eastern Alps? Where are you looking.
Whether it turns out like that is still as it were up in the air.
Beyond that warmer weather and then colder weather, but as you say FI and uncertain.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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FI ?
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ringingmaster, it just means way beyond the reliable output (Fantasy Island).
At present there is little direct cross model consistency between either of the main models (ECM and GFS). What is visible is an increasing tendency to build high pressure to the north west over Greenland and sink low pressure from the north west over Europe as we approach the end of the month, start of April. This breaks up the sustained pattern of high pressure sitting right over Europe which has been producing sunny, warm and dry weather. So a good trend for some colder weather.
Given that this is over a week away it's still very uncertain, but it does raise the possibility of colder and snowier weather from around the end of the month (but does not necessarily mean intense arctic cold and blizzards from one minute past midnight on the 01 April).
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nozawaonsen, Thanks. I was looking at central Switzerland on the Wetterzentrale website- both at the wiggles which were all over the place but mostly the temps were above the 30 year average red line , and also the 2m temperatur which showed an orange Switzerland. I'm a bit new to all of this though!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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pjd, at present GFS show temperatures in Switzerland below average for a few days at the end of this month, start of next, then warming above average for much of the week after. But being FI and given even between FI runs on GFS there is little consistency, I'd be wary of saying more than an uncertain outlook, but with increasing signs of a possible shift in pattern to a more unsettled and at times potentially cooler pattern than we have had recently.
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Ok thanks nozawaonsen,
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FAQ
