 Poster: A snowHead
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Very cold and sunny across much of the Alps today. Warming slightly this weekend, though cold for the rest of the run into the second week of March.
Some snow tomorrow. Looking like it won't be as strong as it was looking like this time yesterday.
Still potential for snow this Sunday and again around 04/05 March.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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A word of caution over the weekends snow. At the moment the GFS operational run is very bullish over bringing this snow across much of the alps, with the focus on the north French alps. However, the GEFS control and other ensembles push to locus east into Austria, which is slightly worrying. I hope this is just a case of the higher resolution of the operational run picking out short term detail that the lower resolution ensembles miss.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
the GEFS control and other ensembles push to locus east into Austria, which is slightly worrying.
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not for those in Austria, presumably? 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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As per normal it seems this year, tomorrows snow looks to have moved east, so a heavy fall for C & E Switz and W Austria - nothing for France.
What's the betting the same will happen to the dump forecast for Sunday.
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I agree partially with Philmes
GFS ensemble for a place near where the 3 Valleys are clearly shows the GFS OP top of the bunch for Sunday.
However, the control aint far behind which is weird, are the higher res members missing something the lower members are missing? I guess we will have to wait a few more runs, Sunday is still a fair way off but is entering the reliable timeframe for predicting precipitation. 12z I am almost certain will be less snowy than the 06z though, that does take some beating.
The consistancy is, something for the weekend has been relatively constant across a good number of runs for a good number of models and from my quinting at the lines about 60% ensemble support.
Next week seems all to hang for with some going for a more damp week to others keeping it crisp. Oh well, 4 hours until the 12z rolls out. I wish I never knew about the GFS you eat the hours away waiting for the next run in situations like this.
John
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| red 27 wrote: |
| tomorrows snow looks to have moved east, so a heavy fall for C & E Switz and W Austria - nothing for France. |
Not sure I agree with this. I wouldn't classify it as a heavy fall, nor has it really moved that far east. The amount of precipitation has certainly been downgraded, but the north west French alps looks like receiving about the same as Switzerland.
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JW_UK, the 06z ensembles bring much more support for a widespread event just about everywhere. I think this might be going the right way for once... 
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philmes, fingers crossed 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Does it look good for Italy too?? Please say yes!!
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You know it makes sense.
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adamtheyido, i think it depends how much the mountains suck out of the system on the way through. for sure, it'll be north and north west orientated hills that get the biggest hit.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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snow forecast has upgraded expectationss for sAT, Sun and monday for les arcs
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Poster: A snowHead
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dan100, oh poo-poo - that's a worry
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| red 27 wrote: |
| dan100, oh poo-poo - that's a worry |
What? 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| red 27 wrote: |
| dan100, oh poo-poo - that's a worry |
Upgraded, not downgraded!! 
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a subtle joke-ette for long standing  's is that whatever snowforecast says will happen, won't.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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whatever snowforecast says will happen, won't.
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well snow forecast = GFS, basically. so when GFS gets it right, snow forecast gets it right. Which isn't always. The value of this thread is that people are giving read-outs from other models, too, and are adding their own intelligent interpretation. The more sources, the better. And when they're all saying something different from each other, and something different every few hours, you can be fairly sure that it's all in the lap of the gods!
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| Quote: |
What a wretched half term it has been
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 what's wretched about it?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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bar shaker, just had a smashing day with fresh snow, cold temperatures and wall to wall blue sky, pistes in great condition after the snow, powder to be had off piste. Only wretched bit is there are lots of people, but that's half term.
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Incidentally snowforecast.com as far as I now, is not quite GFS, but rather the operational run of GFS.
One of the great advantages of ensemble models is that they give you a chance to get a feel for the probability of a given outcome. By just using the operational run (with several hours time lag) you reduce significantly the potential of the forecast, in favour of a more simple and easier to understand product.
So swings and roundabouts. Almost all forecasts use some form of modelling, GFS has been quite heavily commercialised. Nothing wrong with that, but worth knowing that a number of forecasts you see are all actually running off the same initial data (and in most cases to make them easier to read have quite bit of the complexity of the model stripped away...)
Anyway it does look like some snow tomorrow. This evening I'd suggest Switzerland may benefit the most, but we will find out soon enough.
Sunday still looks interesting.
And something looks possible around 05 March...
Runs look cold or around seasonal average.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Late March is going to be spectacular. Just wait and see.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Pam_w, I think you mean mid march ... in 3V
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Pam_w, I think you mean mid march ... in 3V
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You know it makes sense.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Late March is going to be spectacular. Just wait and see. |
Hope so as we're off for a sneaky week at Easter
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Everyone is suggesting medium term that 5th March is predicted a snowfall. This is my day of travel out to the Alps and therefore hoping there is a good dump, but don't want travel chaos.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Christopher, +1
Mind you better then than 12th going home...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Christopher, but with very low confidence at this stage. I'd wait to see if anything is still there by this weekend before putting any faith in that at all.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Snowing in Deux Alpes since about 5am this morning. Looks like just over an inch so far, but thats just a guess looking out the window. Off to test it out now.
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So, the outlook continues to be:
- snow for some today
- heavier widespread fall on Saturday/Sunday (amounts uncertain, but could be as much as 50cm for certain places
- Fitzwilliam cold thereafter, with intermittent falls
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Heavy snow in the Jungfrau Region,Switzerland at the moment. It is forecasted to be like this until midnight and upto 30-40cms
More pictures on the Jungfrau Region thread
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 24-02-11 8:55; edited 2 times in total
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Here's WRF's view of how things would look in 48 hours (accumulated snow). With much of the snow falling in a belt through Switzerland. Eventually just reaching into the western tip of Austria.
The question mark is over the Russian high which brought the very cold and sunny temperatures yesterday. It is still very much in charge in the east, where there are still blue skies this morning, but as the weather pushes in from the Atlantic it will bring snow (as it already has been doing in France). How far and how fast it pushes through will determine how much snow falls where.
After that this weekend looks interesting over Sunday night and further out there are some interesting differences between ECM and GFS at about +192. both of which would bring cold and some snow, but from different directions...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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jeremyd What are the timescales for the snow accumulations? Is it from the previous time on the scale (as would suggest), i.e. previous 3 hours?
If that's right, then I assume Kg's/M relates to approximately CM's / 3 hrs??
...Or have I really lost the plot?
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FAQ
Indeed.
See you on the slopes...