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The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
After some beautiful, warm spring weather, in the coming week it currently looks reasonably good for a change in conditions with some cooler weather and snow in the Alps in a week's time (19/20 March).


Bergfex.com had shown some nice snow this morning for 3V on 19th, 20th March but it's all now disappeared.
A few degrees colder though and still some time for change.

http://www.bergfex.com/meribel/wetter/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Just back from a trip to Austria. Slow levels in Tirol are still reasonable although there was not that much new snow in the last 10 days. Whilst in East Tirol the snow levels were far less. The weather was generally very warm and sunny which meant great views but not the best skiing conditions particularly in East Tirol. Chances are that in East Tirol and Carinthia many resorts will shut early. Best places to visit would be Heiligenblut, Molltaller, and perhaps Kals/Matrai. In Tirol while the temperatures remain high I'd suggest staying about about 1500m for good snow. Hopefully the weather will get colder and some new snow will fall.

Places visitted and conditions I experienced:

Niederau - poor
Auffach - average
spieljoch - average/good
hochfugen - good
hochzillertal - good
mayrhofen - average/good
zillertal arena - average/good
kitzbuhel - average/good
lienz - poor/average
kals/matrei - average
sillian - average
obertilliach - average
spittal - poor
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Substantial looking spike of precipitation been showing up on the charts for France for around the 20th. It's gone away and come back, stayed looking fairly meaty for a few runs now.

Here's hoping.

That said, epic Spring powder conditions on the Fogliettaz this morning! Twisted Evil
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Things are looking up for some precipitation from Sunday onwards. It seems to be sticking around for the last few runs Very Happy
My only fear is the height at which the FL will be ?
Some of the lower slopes could be finished off by a prolong period of moderate rainfall.
Any views on the temps Noza.
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hedley, I don't think at present that it will be a prolonged period of moderate rainfall. Something a bit lighter perhaps. Freezing levels between 1500 and 1750m on Monday. Some very pleasant warm weather in between. Looking likely high pressure will then rebuild from next Wednesday. So continuing pleasant spring skiing conditions as we roll deeper into... er... Spring.
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nozawaonsen, some very different forecasts for Sat/Sun/Mon/Tue for France, 3V at the moment.
From mix of cloud and sun to complete overcast and rain. Looks like temperatures will drop a bit.
Some snow will be good but hopefully not complete overcast and flat light with very little snow for days.

Excited now, should be hitting the slopes on Saturday morning Very Happy
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Here's a look at what's going on out west as a big storm mounts an offensive on BC.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/03/major-storm-hits.html?m=1

If you get a chance Tofino can be a great place to hole up and watch winter storms crashing in.

Anyway back to the snow and Whistler is so far pretty much on average for snowfall this year.

http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/weather/stats/index.htm

March is often a big month and it looks like this storm will help this year keep pace.

Back in Europe and whilst March can be a big snowfall month in the Alps high pressure blocking has so far kept things below normal (Austria caught some early month though).

Next Monday looks like some fairly light snow and either side some very pleasant if rather mild spring conditions. Should be great!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I'm hoping for a snowy April in the Alps to make up for a dry March Smile
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kitenski, don't speak too soon, looks like a sustained period of precipitation of some sort for Sunday - Wednesday next week, so 'interesting' conditions for those of us out there then, but at least it won't be windy
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red 27, Temperatures are coming down nicely Very Happy Looking hopeful for the Southern Alps as well.
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Wasn't dry last week where I was! a 40 and a 20 dump!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
norris, no, but for the Alps as a whole March has been dry so far compared to the seasonal average.

12z GFS has upped potential for snow around early next week.
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nozawaonsen, any indications what its likely be over the next week or so for Bansko Bulgaria
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Garethb, mild and dry from the end of this week under the influence of high pressure. Cooling towards average temperatures at the end of next week.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I think the last couple of GFS runs have been slightly overdoing it. But worth noting that the 12z was actually a downgrade from the 06z!



Though I'd repeat that I do think this is slightly over doing it.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Continues to look good for snow in the Alps next Sunday evening into Monday. Not as much as some of the earlier GFS runs (which looked overcooked), but not bad all the same, temperatures looking relatively cool next week at this stage, certainly compared to this week.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
And just to prove it's far from settled this morning's GFS suggests only a dusting and above average temperatures for the whole run. Let's see which way the pendulum swings during the course of today...

Callan again...


http://youtube.com/v/IDdSWjpPJDg
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Is there any outlook for snow in Scotland?

Came back from MAyrhofen hoping there would be a bit of skiing left but it all looks grim

Whats the chances of a late dump for the west of scotland
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1873Chris, to be blunt Scotland's season is looking pretty much stalled at this stage.
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Cheers nozawaonsen, I'm glad you said stalled and not over lol gives me a little hope
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Blimey, Bergfex forecast for 3V is jumping up and down today. Went from barely a few cm on Monday and sunny otherwise - to 22cm and further snow on Tuesday and Wednesday in a space a few hours.

Can they not just set on big snowy Sunday night and sunny for the rest of the week Wink

http://www.bergfex.com/meribel/wetter/
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Back to a colder and snowier weekend this evening. Very Happy
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
stevomcd, Very Happy
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nozawaonsen, so what's in the bag for 3V for the coming week?
Seems like rather gloomy and overcast first few days but with the chance of some fresh snow higher up.
And uncertain second half but again rather again with chances for rain/snow/overcast.
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Tom W, you've answered your own question Smile
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Have you seen Whistler Shocked Massive storm over there over the past few days. They have had 182cm in the last 7 days alone and more still to come!

http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/index.htm
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Ricklovesthepowder, look up the page to Tuesday morning.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Ricklovesthepowder, my sympathies to those out there - if it's not black flag it will ploughing through the blizzard in zero viz and sub-zero temps.

If I wanted that I'd go to Cairngorm in June
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks like Val D is in for some snow this weekend, woo-hoo! Should freshen things up nicely - hope it stays cold til the 25th.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Last nights TV8 mont blanc weather forecast was for some snow monday down to 1200M and rising to 1500M, but then sunny and cloudy periods for the rest of the week. Doesn't sound too bad.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Currently looks like 10-30cms snow Sunday into Monday. Cooler temperatures to start the week rising and becoming spring like as we go through the week.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person


With snow in the offing it may be useful to have some extra skis.

Here's an extract from SLF.

"Trend for Sunday and Monday

During the day on Sunday, foehn winds will bring about bright intervals in eastern regions, elsewhere it will be heavily overcast. Snowfall is anticipated in the southern regions in particular. On Monday, it will be heavily overcast in general and snowfall is expected far and wide. The snowfall level will drop to below 1000 m. The wind will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity from the southwest on Sunday. The danger of dry avalanches is expected to increase."
[SLF]

WRF suggests the following.

Sunday 18 March 1800

Monday 19 March 0300

Monday 19 March 1800

Spring returns from midweek with warmer temperatures.

Over the last few runs there have been suggestions of cooler and more unsettled weather at times in the last week of March.
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nozawaonsen, Hi just looked at some of the forecast companies for their predictions for Bansko Bulgaria. Still looks very warm most of next week (thank goodness theres a good base) but a couple seem to be suggesting cooler temps from the 24th and potential precipitation (whispers possible snow on the mountain). What do you think (everything crossed as we head out on the 24th.
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Is it my rose tinted glasses, due to going out 7th April, but signs in FI of a drop of temps going into April perhaps???
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There are certainly some hints both in GFS and ECM as well as some of the longer term outputs which raise the possibility of a shift from the current pattern towards the end of the month beginning of next. Whether it does and if it does how it plays out, is still in the balance.
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Here's a round up from Meteo France of winter across France.

Bilan de l'hiver 2011-2012

- A winter of strong contrasts.
- The temperature might have been close to normal, but this masked significant variations.
- Temperatures were mild in December and most of January, before dropping at the end of January, with a remarkable cold spell through to mid February (the fourth coldest since 1947).
- After wet weather in December and in the northern Alps in January, it was remarkably dry in February.
- Two major events of winter were the storm "Joachim" on 15/16 December and the February cold spell.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
a remarkable cold spell through to mid February (the fourth coldest since 1947)


You're not wrong, St Anton was BALTIC at the beginning of February, my coldest ski holiday ever. We were expecting to see penguins and polar bears on the slopes. God it was cold.

I'm looking forward to some balmy spring skiing now.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Cham meteo - normally very reliable


TOMORROW - SUNDAY MARCH 18
Cold front coming in from the west - rain in the afternoon - strong wind high up
SKY CONDITION : thickening high cloud before noon - mostly cloudy to overcast in the afternoon. period of sunshine close to 35%.
PRECIPITATION : starting up during the afternoon - light - rain-snow limit towards 1800 m, dropping towards 1300 m - expected snowfall towards 1800 m : 5-15 cm.
WIND - ground level : moderate and gusty fœhn wind in the morning - decreasing.
WIND - mid mountain : SSE light to moderate -> WNW light.
WIND - high mountain : SW moderate to strong - strong at times.
TEMPERATURE : low +3°C - high +8°C.
ISOTHERM 0°C : 2200 -> 1700 m.
ISOTHERM -10°C : 3400 -> 3200 m.
Very soon overcast over the Italian slopes, but probably dry.

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT - MARCH 18 TO 19
Rain changing to snow
SKY CONDITION : overcast or mostly cloudy.
PRECIPITATION : becoming moderate until the middle of the night - showers later - rain-snow limit towards 1300 m, dropping towards 1000 m - expected snowfall towards 1800 m : 10-20 cm.
WIND - aloft : SW moderate to strong -> SE light to moderate.
TEMPERATURE : low +1°C.
Uncertain.

MONDAY MARCH 19
Unsettled and cold - snow showers - possible sunny spell
SKY CONDITION : mostly cloudy - cloudy at times with fleeting sunny spell. Period of sunshine close to 25%.
PRECIPITATION : scattered showers - more frequent in the afternoon - rain-snow limit towards 1000 m.
WIND - aloft : SE light to moderate -> ENE light.
TEMPERATURE : low -1 °C - high +3°C.
Incertain.
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An update from SLF for Switzerland.

"Short-term development

On Saturday night it will be overcast in southern regions, partly clear in northern regions. During the day on Sunday there will still be foehn-induced bright intervals to begin with in northern regions. During the afternoon, clouds will move in and 5 to 10 cm of snowfall is anticipated, except in the northeasternmost regions. In southern regions it will be overcast; by Sunday evening, 15 to 30 cm of fresh fallen snow is expected above approximately 2000 m. The midday temperatures at 2000 m will lie between zero and plus 2 degrees. The wind will be blowing at moderate strength in the Valais, elsewhere at strong velocity, from southwesterly to southerly directions. Freshly formed snowdrift accumulations will be generally small sized, except in southern regions.

Trend for Monday and Tuesday

On Monday, snowfall, which in some regions will be heavy, is anticipated widespread above approximately 1000 m. On Tuesday it will be sunny in from region to region. The avalanche danger is expected to escalate swiftly on Sunday night."
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Glancing ahead to next weekend and early the week after, there are some suggestions in recent runs that there could be some further snow across parts of the Alps from next Sunday 25 March and Monday 26 March. Still rather uncertain and with spring weather returning from midweek the temperatures could be relatively high (so the snow line would be around 1800m+ still plenty of time for that to change though - in either direction).

Here are some ensembles.

Les Deux Alpes.

Chamonix.

The Arlberg.

Hintertux.

Sestriere.

Folgaria.

Zermatt.

Cairngorm.

Eastern Pyrenees.

Bad Gastein.
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