 Poster: A snowHead
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| BobinCH wrote: |
No idea who skis around Münich. Hardly representative for SH’s  |
Innsbruck - approx. 100km due south of Munich - is geographically situated in the heart of the Alps.
Conditions in Verbier are not representative of the majority of the alpine this winter.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Very mild today with a strong Föhn at Play. However, with generally cooler temperatures from Monday for much of the week the snowfall (see chart for spread) will be to relatively low levels, mainly mid week. There may be light snow overnight on Monday too and that will be dependent on how fast the snow line is dropping. Further west it may start as rain in places (below 1500m) in the east the snowline looks like being closer to 1000m.
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Monday still looks pretty warm - depending on the speed of the front. The rest of the week looks cooler and pretty good. Maybe some light to moderate snow amounts on Wednesday. Right now I would circle Thursday as the best day of the week, but with the usual caveats associated with a 4-day forecast.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| altaski8 wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
No idea who skis around Münich. Hardly representative for SH’s |
Innsbruck - approx. 100km due south of Munich - is geographically situated in the heart of the Alps.
Conditions in Verbier are not representative of the majority of the alpine this winter. |
I am really not interested in your puerile, academic lectures. I described the resorts that seem most frequented by Snowheads. I don’t believe any of them are near Innsbruck. If you’d like to know the conditions around Innsbruck I’d suggest you ask @clarky999, who seems to be having a lot more fun than you
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Attention anyone who does not have a personal or commercial stake in the far NW corner of the Alps above 2000m, this thread does not apply to you because @BobinCH says so.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| altaski8 wrote: |
| Attention anyone who does not have a personal or commercial stake in the far NW corner of the Alps above 2000m, this thread does not apply to you because @BobinCH says so. |
You mean that weeny little area from Zermatt to Val d’Isere where most Snowheads ski?
Such a tosser. Again and again...
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 16-02-20 12:49; edited 1 time in total
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Here are some Meteo France stat's for current snow depths in the French Alps.
At 1500m north facing slopes, deepest areas are Mont Blanc, Beaufortin, Haute Tarantaise with 100cm. Next is Chablais (PdS) and Aravis with 80cm. Then Bauges, Belledonne 60cm, and so on, lower further south.
At 2000m, Beaufortin, Haute Tarantaise are top with 200cm, then a large group around 150cm include Mont Blanc, Chablais, Aravis, Vanoise etc, getting down to 105cm in the regions furthest south (Ubaye, Mercantour)
Hover over the areas on the maps below (first link is north, second link is south)
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/neige/alpes-du-nord/monp007alpesdunord
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/neige/alpes-du-sud/monp007alpesdusud
So, out of the approx 25 areas covered in the French alps, Chablais has done relatively well according to Meteo France. Seems in line with Bob's SLF post on the previous page which has 175cm currently at 2550m in the neighbouring Valais canton of Swiss.
Not seeing any noteworthy changes in mid term outlook. Just a continutation of regular small top ups for northern ridge, often to low levels. We'll struggle on I guess.
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This has been a remarkably persistent pattern, especially considering how active it has been. There is still not much hope for new snow (beyond a light coating) for the southern Alps. Yet another significant multi-day warmup is visible on the charts starting next weekend. This time the boundary is close enough for there to be some possibility that eastern areas stay cool and maybe snowy.
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@altaski8, which pattern are you discussing? Certainly as far as the northern Alps is concerned we have seen two profoundly different patterns this month (strong jet, instability and often stormy weather), last month (high pressure, stable and dry). Neither particularly cold for any length of time, indeed primarily mild, but I would not say they were the same pattern.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This is snow depth percentage from 2/13. It's outdated now (+10-40cm followed by compaction and melting) but I don't think they have posted an updated map. I'm not sure how well it correlates to individual stations, but I'm just passing it along.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @altaski8, which pattern are you discussing? Certainly as far as the northern Alps is concerned we have seen two profoundly different patterns this month (strong jet, instability and often stormy weather), last month (high pressure, stable and dry). Neither particularly cold for any length of time, indeed primarily mild, but I would not say they were the same pattern. |
This month. The strong jet, active pattern. The latitudinal and longitudinal position and amplitude of the jetstream has been remarkably persistent.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Several snow measuring stations in Switzerland are actually below the lowest snow depth ever recorded on this date:
Elsige, Fisi, Trüttlisbergpass, Itramen, and Loz just to mention a few from a quick glance. All are below 2200m and mostly in the western part of the country. Several other stations could threaten low snow record towards the end of Feb. or early March.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bier trinken day today with many biergärten open! Locally the snow has mostly melted up to about 1000m and much higher on slopes with southerly exposure. Temperatures have hit double digits Celsius up to nearly 2000m.
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Yep pretty much no snow at 1000m anywhere in France. Of the 7 massif groups only Vosges and Jura have a thin cover at that level (both north of Geneva).
Background signals show that QBO is well into easterly phase (should weaken vortex, assist northern blocking) and GFS MJO hinting at a little amplification of sub tropical highs (ridges) around month end.... but with strat winds still off the charts it's hard to see any favourable atlantic ridges lasting for long.
Looking for positives in FI, the AO is set to drop sharply at the end of Feb. Some signs of arctic blocking showing up on the GFS/ECM/GEM mean pressure charts. All it would take is for a slight easing of the high pressure to the south of the alps, and the door will open from the north. Vortex is over our side of the NH heading towards Scandinavia, so the cold air is not far away.
Here is ECM mean at day 10, very similar to GFS and GEM. Winds turning more NW'ly, high pressure edging towards Greenland etc.....not really there yet as a good signal, apart from maybe the eastern end....but certainly has potential
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You know it makes sense.
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Wepowder have a reasonable amount of snowfall for some parts this midweek, for instance Engelberg wed which is due to thereafter have cold temps and blue skies. Most places seem to be cold at least from midweek.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@BobinCH, @altaski8, your posts would be more interesting if it didn't seem that half of them were with the intention of disproving each other.
some gentle criticism:
@BobinCH, while your chart for Lac des Vaux technically does show (just) above average snow depths, surely even your optimistic self can see that most of the rest of the line has been below average. It's only the last snowfall that has brought the depth back above average, and it'll probably fall back below average over the coming week. And you're still omitting to put altitudes in your "look how much cold powder is forecast" screenshots, so it's potentially misleading to anyone who can't remember what height it's for. I'm also not convinced that the vast majority of sH's ski in high altitude ski areas - I'd be willing to bet that a significant proportion ski in resorts that don't even reach the 2550m (?) altitude that you post about.
@altaski8, your snow depth map for Switzerland appears to be based largely on reasonably low measuring stations, so while it does nicely illustrate below average depths at these altitudes, it doesn't say much about conditions in higher ski areas. And it's important to remember that enjoyable piste skiing can be had on 15cm of artificial snow even if off piste is awful.
All this aside, here's what I think about where we are at this point in the season (and I hope this is a reasonably balanced opinion - no wildly misplaced optimism, nor doom and gloom):
In the far NW Alps (areas close to Grenoble, Geneva, Bern), some decent early season conditions, followed by dry weather for most of January, then warm and wet since late January. Therefore, altitude is even more crucial than it usually is in mid season. Snowmaking is also often less widespread in this part of Alps, which doesn't help.
- at high altitudes (above roughly 2000m) snow depths are above or around average (plenty of precipitation, and it's fallen as snow), and snow quality is generally good too (recent snowfalls; recent high temperatures have had little impact)
- at mid altitudes (roughly 1400-2000m) snow depths are just below or close to average (plenty of precipitation, mostly of snow), and snow quality is reasonable depending on aspect (recent snowfalls, but affected by high temperatures)
- at low altitudes (below roughly 1400m) snow depths are below average (too much rain to allow a base to form in many areas, especially on sunny aspects), and snow quality is poor (too much rain and warmth)
Obviously the exact altitude boundary between these categories depends on aspect, exposure to westerlies, height of surrounding terrain etc. But generally a bit worse on the fringes of the Alps (e.g. Vercors region, NW Chablais) and better in the "interior" (e.g. Val d'Arly, upper Valais).
In the rest of the northern Alps (NE Swiss Alps, Arlberg, most of Austrian Alps) it's been a bit cooler and there's been a bit less recent precipitation (particularly the further east you go). Therefore altitude is not as crucial. Lots of snowmaking helps too.
- I've no vested interest in this part of the Alps this year, but I would hazard a guess that conditions are fairly typical of a "low snow year", but not particularly unusual, nor particularly poor (especially for piste skiing)
- at the lowest altitudes (below roughly 1000m) conditions start to be more in line with lower areas in the NW Alps (i.e. poor)
In almost all of the southern Alps (southern French Alps, most of Italy except upper Aosta valley) it's been exceptionally dry since before Christmas, following on from an excellent pre / early season which laid down a base. So no fresh snow, but happily no rain. Here, the main factors in snow conditions have been snowmaking and aspect, with altitude perhaps taking a slightly less important role
- for mostly north facing resorts with good snowmaking, piste skiing is largely fine (e.g. much of the Dolomites)
- ski resorts which are low, sunny or without snow cannons (or even worse, all three) may be in trouble - but there aren't many of these in the southern Alps
How are things looking over the coming weeks?
In the medium range - no major pattern change
- in the NW Alps, high and mid altitude resorts will continue to do just fine, and lower ski areas may continue to struggle. As spring approaches, aspect will also start to become more important as the sun strengthens
- similarly, there may be little change in the status quo for the rest of the Alps
In the long term, there are faint signs of slightly cooler weather from late February, but this is so far away that it's hardly worth mentioning yet. If we don't receive a sustained cold and snowy spell in the next month (I would usually laugh at the chances of this, but then again, it's been 2 months since significant snowfall in some areas!), larger low resorts may join the smaller ones in really starting to struggle, wherever there is only a fragile base: Morzine / Les Gets, Les Carroz / Morillon, Megeve / Val d'Arly, La Clusaz, Gstaad, SkiWelt etc.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sun 16-02-20 16:50; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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| denfinella wrote: |
@altaski8, your snow depth map for Switzerland appears to be based largely on reasonably low measuring stations, so while it does nicely illustrate below average depths at these altitudes, it doesn't say much about conditions in higher ski areas. And it's important to remember that enjoyable piste skiing can be had on 15cm of artificial snow even if off piste is awful.
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I don't believe that's the case. They are mountain stations, the majority of which are above 2000m. The SLF graphic shows [%] of normal, not absolute depth.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@altaski8, OK, having googled it, you appear to be right about the altitude of the measuring stations. Apologies. (I did realise the numbers were a %.) So perhaps my altitude boundaries are a bit optimistic, at least for the pre-Alps.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@polo, nice post.
-12°C and colder 850mb temps. are increasingly showing up on long-range charts between Iceland and northern Scandinavia. Good to see cold building in a potential source region.
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@denfinella, thanks for verifying. I wasn't entirely sure myself. I know most of the SLF snow stations are relatively high up, but couldn't be sure which stations are used to populate the graphics.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, very wellwritten post. Agree with all you are saying. However, the AO index has been extreme and set a new record at 6,34. Long out in today’s forecast it seem to sharply drop, but not into negative territory. Thus we have seen several times since new year in the forecast long out, but always risen again. Thus, I don’t think we should get to excited just as you are saying.
There are some signs long out for a change, but I would not buy into it yet.
When it comes to the January vs February, I have to agree with Noza that it has been different. The teleconnections (like the AO and NAO) has been similar, but the jet over Europe has gone more to south bringing more precipitation to Northern Alp. However, the strong NAO and AO does nothing for the southern Alp. However, the first half of feb has not brought the similar spinning Continental high as in January.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 16-02-20 18:00; edited 1 time in total
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It's been a very mild day here in the Galibier Thabor, spring skiing conditions and nice mild sunshine. The locals think it will snow on Wednesday, so hopefully that will freshen things up here. There is plenty of snow on the pistes and they are holding up well in busy conditions.
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TLSCB+ on 12z GFS
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@clarky999, looks nice!
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@clarky999, fantastic, where exactly is this? Close to Schlick?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Woosh, good guess! That's down from the ridge in the Kalkkögel that separates Axamer Lizum and Schlick.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Skied from La Thuile over to La Rosiere today. At midday, the sun came out and it was showing 11C at 1900m on a chairlift thermometer. The soft corn snow was enjoyable, but it did feel a bit too springlike. Don't tell Whitegold that global boiling is back on!! 
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Some really quite bizarre night time temperatures at the moment, lots of images here https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/warmth-benelux-germany-poland-mk/.
It did feel pretty warm in the Arlberg today, though the snow was not particularly spring like it had clearly been affected by the mild temperatures even at 2800m. Oddly the snow was less temperature affected just above the village than it was, in places, higher up. I guess the valley is still in shade most of the time.
@denfinella, as far as the Arlberg is concerned I dont think it would fall into the category of "a low snow year" , 3m at the top and over a 1m in the village is around what you would expect, it is more the quality of the snow. The pistes are generally good but off piste there are many areas of where the wind has blown away the snow to leave an exposed hard (not quite ice) layer or exposed rocks. I would guess conditions will be similar for other higher areas in the northern Austrian alps. There is definitely a point (1100m??) below which the amount of lying snow rapidly reduces to zero. Given a fair amount of the skiing in the Tirol and Salzburgerland is below this level those places would seem to be likely to struggle, even with snow machines, especially given the mild conditions in the next week or so.
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You know it makes sense.
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@munich_irish, sounds like you are having a good time. Quite a Föhn blowing this evening which will have an impact too. The coming week though is going to turn cold, not mild, with the snow line in Austria below 1100m by Tuesday (warms up again by the weekend). And even then the vast majority of skiing in Tirol and Salzburgerland is above that height.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@munich_irish, just checked my weather station and it’s currently 15C outside on the balcony at 10 o’clock at night in the middle of February, so that fits with those charts. Snow line here is somewhere between 1000-1100m.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Current snow depths in the Arlberg according to ZAMG weather stations:
Warth (1490m) - 56cm
St. Anton (1285m) - 54cm
Spullersee (1830m) - 140cm
Rendl (1895m) - 88cm
Ulmerhütte (2205m) - 307cm
Gampberg (2153m) - 149cm
Galzig (2025m) - 205cm
Snow depth seems highly variable depending on elevation and exposure. I'm not sure what would be considered average depth for this time of year. But IMO 300cm is an excellent depth almost anywhere and <100cm is a little thin.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Axamer Lizum (2103m) - 114cm
Slightly sketchy for anything other than gentle meadow touring. Maybe the station is wind scoured?
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@altaski8, to be honest you just seem to be hunting round for things to be down about. Ask @clarky999, if you want to know what the conditions are like there.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Count me as a vote against the reliability of onthesnow statistics.
Some of those seasons St. Anton got less snow than the hills of western Massachusetts. The ratio of total snowfall to max base depth also seems off.
I would guess that historically, Warth and Lech frequently have a depth of greater than 1.5 meters (esp. in February and March). St. Anton probably much less often because it's lower and significantly more precipitation shadowed.
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@nozawaonsen, I suspect the figure the tourist office is quoting is for St Christoph on the basis that counts as "valley"  There is certainly not as much snow as some previous seasons eg last year.
Not sure about the above 1100m thing. Most of the villages eg Brixen, Kitzbühel, Saalbach, Maria Alm, Flachau, Schladming are below (often a good deal below) 1000m. Unlike say the Zillertal a big part of the attraction of these places is skiing back to the village amongst the trees. Are they really going to get more than a few snowflakes which is not going to make up for the 15 degree night time temperatures!
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @altaski8, to be honest you just seem to be hunting round for things to be down about. Ask @clarky999, if you want to know what the conditions are like there. |
"Ask clarky" is sarcastic and snarky (rhymes!). I know what the conditions are like. Today, for example, the touring conditions were poor. And also borderline unsafe in some places. There are more exposed or shallow buried obstacles than usual due to wind scouring, melting, and low snow depth on some slopes. Personally I think selfie sticks distract from the ski experience. Videos look cool but they don't always accurately tell the tale. Would it surprise you if I was both a more experienced backcountry skier and also more knowledgeable about conditions and weather than clarky9999?... (no offense meant to him... and of course I have no idea since I don't know him)
And no I'm not trying to be negative. If you read all my posts you'll see that their tenor with respect to snow and conditions is sometimes positive and sometimes negative. I just try to keep the discussion honest and objective. To this end, some of my posts are counterpoints to what I perceive as unrealistic optimism.
Why you seem to be the optimism police is beyond me. If you resist your impulse to knock down non-rosy viewpoints you will save us all from these rebuttal posts.
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He wasn't being sarcastic he was actually trying to be helpful as @clarky999 regularly skis around innsbruck
| altaski8 wrote: |
| Would it surprise you if I was both a more experienced backcountry skier and also more knowledgeable about conditions and weather than clarky9999?. |
Yes. Mainly because clarky999's trip reports indicate he's actually skiing, and at a high level relative to most forum users, and he has been posting here for probably ten years. I think you've popped in in the last year and to be honest I don't remember you ever posting about skiing itself.
So any rational human would presume clarky999 was more experienced. Not out of prejudice, just because of the available evidence.
But really who cares?
What's most annoying here is that between all the bickering there's some really interesting analysis, peppered with occasional on the ground reports from various locations which makes for good reading / fantasizing for Ski junkies like myself
So can we PLEASE, regardless of who's fault it is, stop the bickering and just focus on the weather.
Like literally stop it. Now. No ripostes. Just let it go, everyone.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| 8611 wrote: |
So can we PLEASE, regardless of who's fault it is, stop the bickering and just focus on the weather.
Like literally stop it. Now. No ripostes. Just let it go, everyone. |
Happily. But please make sure the right people get this message. Just counting posts from this weekend alone, there are a handful of posters who have not received it. Hopefully you will call them out next time.
The only thing that gives me pause about clarky is the selfie stick. When I lived in Utah, nobody had them. Matter of fact, I don't think they're even allowed there.
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Such a shame the tone of this weather thread have changed. The weather outlook threads always seemed to be a useful steer of generally what is happening with the weather, not too serious and somewhere for a steer (in my case when to think about heading to the slopes for a short trip at short notice) or perhaps somewhere for others to look ahead what might be coming up for their holiday booked a long time ago, all with some good-natured banter.
Is this season as good as the particularly good last year? No. Is is a complete disaster? No. Sure, off-piste in the areas I have skied have not been great as some previous years but piste skiing has been enjoyable with the snow holding up well (in the areas I have been) and suprisingly good at the start of the season and far from a disaster currently; I have skied worse.
Can we please get back to somehere that isn't who is the more optimistic or pessimistic and to what we all have in common - skiing and the enjoyment of the mountains.
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FAQ
