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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
scotspikey, flip side? Then i know what to expect, won't be disappointed, and have packed walking boots. Madeye-Smiley
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
davidof wrote:
+27C in some of the Pyrenean valleys today. A record.


T-shirt weather here too. Glorious! Winter incoming again soon though.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Dilemma - heading to Les Arcs for the week on Saturday, can only take one board: full on powder oriented (Burton Fish) or slightly less powder oriented that's better on piste (Salomon Super 8 ) .

Which one should I take?
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@ChrisP3, why only one board? Not sure I would be bringing a dedicated powder board only for a European week...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@leggyblonde Have booked 2 board bags on the flight and have 2 boards in each, one for me and one each for my mrs, my son and my mate! Maybe I'll just sort myself out next time!

So you think the Salomon is the best bet? It's supposedly decent in powder anyway just never had those conditions since I've had it. Maybe I'll save the Fish for the planned Japow trip.
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@ChrisP3, fair enough! Yeah stick with the Salomon
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I left Jackson Hole last Sunday. They've had 5 feet mid mountain since. 118% of average snowpack for the year.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
leggyblonde wrote:
@ChrisP3, fair enough! Yeah stick with the Salomon


Will do, thanks!
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Snowfall pattern on ECM out 10 days.



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ChrisP3 wrote:
Dilemma - heading to Les Arcs for the week on Saturday, can only take one board: full on powder oriented (Burton Fish) or slightly less powder oriented that's better on piste (Salomon Super 8 ) .

Which one should I take?


Next week? one like this

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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
I’m in Aosta. Looks like a fair amount of precipitation over the next week or so, but will it be rain or snow?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Burton Fish. I have one and it is a good on piste board as well. Very nice in powder. Mind you I ride a Cool Bean and it is as good on as off piste.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
snow amounts seem to be getting knocked down a bit on snow forecast. was saying 3/4 of a metre next 9 days now about half that for Val D'isere.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
^^^
Yeah I've seen amounts for Sauze gradually disappear over past few days also on Snow forecast... perhaps 1-2cm at best at the min over next week. Funny really as it's a year to the day I was trying to defrost frozen pipes at home due to the "beast from the east"... what I would give for just a smidge of the "snowy" stuff at present!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Dininishing snow forecasts on "snow forecast" are par for the course. Their set up should be reversed, to be pessimistic, then rising optimism when justified.
Sadly Gfs 00 run shows rising temps for Zermatt over the next couple of weeks. Lets hope this is a one off aberation of the model and 06, will give a better outlook.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snow forecast's snowfall predictions don't (on average) reduce over time. Really.

People just remember the highest figures and then tend to be disappointed when, unsurprisingly, the following predictions are lower.

The website uses weather model data (GFS I think), so its predictions would only reduce over time if weather model data did too. And if that was consistently the case, the weather model would have been adjusted by now.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
snowforecast uses GFS Op run, which is a warm outlier at the moment vs ensembles.....but, none of the other models are particularly cold, all looks a bit "meh"

Likely to see mostly snow at 1300-1400m out to mid week in the NW at least. Wed/thurs looks like a higher FL (2000), too far away to be accurate, but can't deny that the outlook has deteriorated somewhat.
Might get some "blustery showers" (love the sound of that), heavy at times, followed by colder air and some snowy top ups. Anything above 1800m in the west should have a great week. Lower is mixed bag, but still plenty of time for a change for the better.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
polo wrote:

Wed/thurs looks like a higher FL (2000), too far away to be accurate, but can't deny that the outlook has .


Wed looks particulary interesting. Snow Forecast is going with a high FL of around 2000m, so is forecasting rain for Avoriaz. However, Berfex and others are going for colder temps and consequently snow.

Obviously still a few days out, but could be lots of powder or lots of soggy skiiers depending on which way it goes!
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Currently watching the snow falling on the webcam at Saas Fee! Very Happy
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@Handy Turnip, here's the GFS 6z Op run for avoriaz http://www.meteociel.fr/tendances-neige/39984/avoriaz.htm

Remember snow line is 200-300m below freeze level (0 Iso column), so wed/thurs currently showing 10cm to 2200, then 26cm to 1700m, then another 16cm to 1000m approx.
If that panned out as forecast, Avoriaz village would get a little rain followed by 42cm of snow
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Zermatt currently has snowfall all over the area. Village has snow coming down, but too warm to stick it appears. A nice change. @denfinella, I'm sure your right, but they always predict more snow than for example, that Given by Zermatts own forecast. Not sure which model they take theirs from.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
polo wrote:
@Handy Turnip, here's the GFS 6z Op run for avoriaz http://www.meteociel.fr/tendances-neige/39984/avoriaz.htm

Remember snow line is 200-300m below freeze level (0 Iso column), so wed/thurs currently showing 10cm to 2200, then 26cm to 1700m, then another 16cm to 1000m approx.
If that panned out as forecast, Avoriaz village would get a little rain followed by 42cm of snow


Cheers polo, good point about the snow/freezing line. 42cm! I’d take that!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Handy Turnip,
As the fronts come in from the Atlantic it is very normal to have warm sectors within them with fluctuating freezing levels , from what I can see that it will e mostly Snow over the next week rather than rain so Happy Days
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@Rob Mackley, definitely happy days! I’ve a long weekend in Avoriaz next week snowHead snowHead snowHead
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ChrisWo wrote:
skiberg wrote:
I may need to start looking for lower elation tree skiing

Nobody wants lower elation tree skiing...get out there and find some high-elation tree skiing! Laughing

Haha ha good one
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Return of the pow in the West. Woot woot!

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snowing in Chamonix. Not sticking.

Town has been un-white almost all season.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Whitegold, you are an idiot. I have barely been able to access my garage because os snow all season.

Why are you such a negative charge?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Good job you cant ski in the town centre Puzzled
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Yeah, town has been very snowy all season? It's only the last 7/10 days that it's really disappeared.

Not sticking in the valley but the mountain should be getting a nice top up. Too bad I'm working all weekend Sad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Whitegold

What’s that on the roof then
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Rob Mackley wrote:
@Whitegold

What’s that on the roof then


not fresh snow!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Mr.Egg,
Re written , I know that

@Whitegold, claimed “Town has been un-white almost all season”

Obviously not judging by the Snow still on the roof after a long period of Sun and Warm temps
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It's also only at 1000m elevation.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Re: @Whitegold............

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Raining at midday at 1300 meters when I was skiing, seems to be snowing now. French Chartreuse.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@BobinCH, well I'm in Colorado, at Steamboat not too far from Crested Bute (3rd in your image above) in the overall scheme of things Puzzled

And locals on the ground have been getting most excited at the prospect of a major storm, I've heard people talking anything from 2 to 3 feet by Sunday, and Google Weather alerts are saying similar.



However, Snow-Forecast is only showing 10-12cm and so far for today they have been right!

Already I've heard backtracking from some of the aforesaid locals "well it's too warm and the snow will always go further South"

That said we're going to be "in-line" at 07:45 tomorrow for "First Tracks" lifts (Pressing Glass as they say) at 08:00 hopefully for some fresh.

Meanwhile, this was the closest we came to superb powder today, just the wrong mode of transport Laughing



This guy is 81 and amazing energy and fitness breaking trail at times in waist deep snow!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Weathercam, looks like a cool way to spend a day!
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geoffers wrote:
Re: @Whitegold............



This.

Plenty of snow yesterday in the PDS, across the way from Cham - heavy and wet, but good to patch things up, and hopefully a herald of things to come...
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The last few reports have really dialed back on the snow amounts for the French Alps for next week, esp. Bergfex. Would any of the experts please explain? It also seems to re-warm next weekend.
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