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The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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Sticking with the the Arlberg theme, I see that the 06Z precipitation wigglies are showing a little bump on 11-12th. Is this going to amount to anything more than a couple of cms? (I'm in the Montafon valley for a week from Saturday)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1047_ens.png
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hd wrote:
Sticking with the the Arlberg theme, I see that the 06Z precipitation wigglies are showing a little bump on 11-12th. Is this going to amount to anything more than a couple of cms? (I'm in the Montafon valley for a week from Saturday)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1047_ens.png


It could be the 6z run is picking up on a weak weather front coming round the eastern side of the high and affecting the Alps. Can't yet see a front being shown on the Meto fax charts so not sure how accurate it is at this stage. But well spotted and well worth keeping an eye on. Based entirely on what is shown on the 6Z run, it would look like only a few cm's at best but this could change between now and then.
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An update from SLF for Switzerland.

"Short-term development

On Wednesday night in northern regions, snowfall is expected to set in. During the day on Thursday, it will be mostly sunny in southern regions; in the Valais there will be intermittent bright spells. By Thursday evening on the northern flank of the Alps, 10 to 20 cm of snowfall is anticipated; in the eastern Bernese Oberland and in the central part of the northern flank of the Alps, as much as 30 cm; elsewhere, less than 10 cm of new fallen snow. Temperatures will drop down to minus 8 degrees at 2000 m by midday. The wind will shift from westerly to northerly and is expected to increase in strength from moderate to strong velocity during the course of the day. The intensifying wind will transport the fresh fallen snow and loosely packed old snow. The snowdrift accumulations which are prone to triggering will increase in frequency and size." [SLF]


Considerable Avalanche Danger Widespread.
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so........ any chance of this coming high pressure to break next week? or we just all settled for a week of sun and warm (3V)
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Tom W - On the latest overnight charts, the high pressure looks nearly certain now to cover the Alps for most of next week. There is still a possibility of it breaking but would probably not happen until the end of the week at least. And there is still a chance of some light snow on Sunday as a weather front skirts the Eastern half of the Alps.
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jimmybog wrote:
Tom W - On the latest overnight charts, the high pressure looks nearly certain now to cover the Alps for most of next week. There is still a possibility of it breaking but would probably not happen until the end of the week at least. And there is still a chance of some light snow on Sunday as a weather front skirts the Eastern half of the Alps.


Dam, a whole week of skiing in pleasant temps, under a blue sky with excellent visibility in stunning surroundings Very Happy Best thing about it is that our wee daughter (and all the other kids) will be able to enjoy the outdoors more and I may even get the chance to get her up the mountain for some proper daddy/daughter skiing Very Happy
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shoogly, thats the reason I ski at Easter with the kids, much nicer conditions for them IMHO
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kitenski, if snowheads had a "like" button, I'd "like" your post Very Happy
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Avalanche Statistics [for Austria] http://www.alpinesicherheit.at/index.php?menuid=1

- so far [06/03] 16 fatalities this season, compared to a seasonal average of 26 [for the whole season].
- despite the impression given by the media that there has been a large number of avalanche fatalities amongst recreational skiers this season, this is not supported by the statistics.
- forecasting what will happen over the remainder of the season is difficult to impossible, though the condition of the snowpack reinforces avalanche warnings for spring.

Das Österreichische Kuratorium für Alpine Sicherheit
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nozawaonsen, My sliding for 2012 is drawing to a close. Many thanks for all your insight this season.
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Temperatures look like pushing up in the Alps from early next week.

ECM still has it quite cool next Tuesday

ECM 12z +120 http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8665/ECM0-120_lvb1.GIF

But would be very mild by the end of the week.

ECM 12z +192 http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8947/ECM0-192_mru6.GIF

That said that are some faint signs fluttering in the wind that colder temperatures may start cropping up by the end of next weekend, start of the week after.

ECM 12z +240 http://images.meteociel.fr/im/111/ECM1-240_eri9.GIF
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It's been snowing hard all day here in the Chiemgau Alps and has not let up yet. We are supposed to have clear weather from late tomorrow onwards with the temperatures rising next week. Typical for March around here, temperatures up and down like proverbial whores knickers! But it should mean that any one out next week will have good conditions in Eastern Tirol and Salzburgerland at least.
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Samerberg Sue wrote:
Typical for March around here, temperatures up and down like proverbial whores knickers! .


Love it. Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks like snowfall for Austria Sunday and Monday. My reading of the forecast is high pressure out west, a low pressure pushing in from the east over Austria. I guess it hangs in the balance on how far the low can push west. Looks like snowline could be a tad above valleys. Could make for a wet start to the WC in Schladming, DH training starts Monday, bit hopefully some powder higher up.
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As waynos, says there should be some further probably light snow in parts of Austria (Tirol through Salzburg into Styria) tomorrow and Monday.

11 March 1500
12 March 0900

Snow line looks like being between 1000 - 1300m.

Beyond that temperatures rising quite quickly in the Alps from mid week to above average before dropping a little from 18 March. Beyond is a little unclear, but generally mild and dry conditions seem to be likely (perhaps a hint of a chance of snow around 19/20 March at present).

Unfortunately some very warm temperatures seem likely in Scotland.

"There has so far being no lift served snowsports this month and sadly the chance of limited resumption in lift served snowsports that looked just about possible mid-week has been more or less snuffed out by a resumption of hair drier winds on Thursday accompanied by heavy overnight rain into Friday morning in the West."
[Winterhighland.info]
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Update on French snow cover 08 March

- In general February was very cold, but very dry. In contrast the first few days of March were very springlike, causing snow to melt at low altitudes and on south facing slopes. Since then, winter has fought back, but snowfall has generally been modest.
- Snow cover in early March throughout the Northern Alps, north of the Hautes-Alpes and across much of the Pyrenees remains very good, thanks to heavy snow in December and early January followed by the February cold.
- In contrast the snow cover in the Southern French Alps, particularly the Alpes-Maritimes is below average.
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- In contrast the snow cover in the Southern French Alps, particularly the Alpes-Maritimes is below average. Crying or Very sad

Some of the runs are suggesting some precipitation around the 19/20th.

A long way out I know and no consensus yet but it keeps cropping up.

We could do with some easterly cold pushing in as well.

With Easter just round the corner it will be interesting to see how it shapes up?
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As spring gets into her stride, from Tuesday and for at least the next week it is going to be warm, sunny and dry in the Alps.



That is of course not all bad. It should be very pleasant in the sunshine and in many places the snowpack is still very deep. This chart from SLF shows most places above average and many over 50% over seasonal average.

Snow depth percentage of long-term mean values

There continue to be some weak signs of more unsettled weather around 20 March, with temperatures a little closer to average.
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nozawaonsen, really enjoying the photos! Very Happy Very Happy
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The warm, sunny weather looks like stretching on through most of March at present.

So think spring snow, BBQs, shades, live bands on terraces, beautiful people stripping off on deck chairs.
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Quote:

There continue to be some weak signs of more unsettled weather around 20 March

Sure to come true then, as I'm off for some more sliding on the 22nd
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what an extraordinary season... The best (piste) skiing this century despite only 2 real snowfalls - although both of those lasted a week each
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Red 27 - It doesn't look as though the southern french alp resorts have had a particularly good season. I'm wondering if this one is actually worse than last year?
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snowymum, no the southern Alps have done much less well this year. Conversely last year they had a relatively good season. The northern Alps have remained in rude health.
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nozawaonsen wrote:

So think spring snow, BBQs, shades, live bands on terraces, beautiful people stripping off on deck chairs.


Oh I am. I am Cool
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nozawaonsen wrote:
snowymum, no the southern Alps have done much less well this year. Conversely last year they had a relatively good season. The northern Alps have remained in rude health.


Forgive my geographical ineptitude, but where is the line between N & S Alps? For France I imagine the S Alps to be the areas to the S of the Tarentaise, is that about right? More to the point, where is La Grave / Alpe d'Huez. I've not heard much about that area (there is a thread but not updated all that often). I get the impression that LG has not had a huge amount this season? Do any experts know if this is the case?
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sah wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
snowymum, no the southern Alps have done much less well this year. Conversely last year they had a relatively good season. The northern Alps have remained in rude health.


Forgive my geographical ineptitude, but where is the line between N & S Alps? For France I imagine the S Alps to be the areas to the S of the Tarentaise, is that about right? More to the point, where is La Grave / Alpe d'Huez. I've not heard much about that area (there is a thread but not updated all that often). I get the impression that LG has not had a huge amount this season? Do any experts know if this is the case?


Not the only one geographically challenged - I've been dying to ask this question for ages. Off to Valloire for Easter and on the webcam it looks like they've had/got lots of snow but I've a sneaky feeling it might be deemed Southern Alps. Although the France Meteo site would suggest not. Any comments?
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Weather experts tell me if I'm wrong but looks like a change coming from next week . Could be a change to typical spring weather Showers/Sun , fingers crossed .
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The French departments bordering Italy are:

Northern Alps

Haute Savoie
Savoie

Southern Alps

Hautes Alpes
Alpes de Haute Provence
Alpes Maritimes

Valloire is in Savoie, north of Haute Alpes and in the northern French Alps.

I doubt the boundary between the departments is exactly the same as where the snow has fallen, but in general on the southern side of the Alps this year the snow has not been anything like as substantial as on the northern side.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 12-03-12 11:25; edited 2 times in total
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snowlamb wrote:
sah wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
snowymum, no the southern Alps have done much less well this year. Conversely last year they had a relatively good season. The northern Alps have remained in rude health.


Forgive my geographical ineptitude, but where is the line between N & S Alps? For France I imagine the S Alps to be the areas to the S of the Tarentaise, is that about right? More to the point, where is La Grave / Alpe d'Huez. I've not heard much about that area (there is a thread but not updated all that often). I get the impression that LG has not had a huge amount this season? Do any experts know if this is the case?


Not the only one geographically challenged - I've been dying to ask this question for ages. Off to Valloire for Easter and on the webcam it looks like they've had/got lots of snow but I've a sneaky feeling it might be deemed Southern Alps. Although the France Meteo site would suggest not. Any comments?


Another one here, been wanting to ask the question! I'm going to Claviere, I'm guessing Southern, but would love to know, especially for the French resorts.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


I doubt the boundary between the departments is exactly the same as where the snow has fallen, but in general on the southern side of the Alps this year the snow has not been anything like as substantial as on the northern side.


Thanks! Obviously snow falls where it wants too... but useful to know the definitions.
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Claviere is in Italy and is on the southern side of the Alps.

For a rough north to south guide the HISTALP map is quite handy.



Though I'd say the eastern Alps start in eastern Switzerland.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen wrote:
The French departments bordering Italy are:

Northern Alps

Haute Savoie
Savoie

Southern Alps

Hautes Alpes
Alpes de Haute Provence
Alpes Maritimes



Valloire is in Savoie, north of Haute Alpes and in the northern French Alps.

I doubt the boundary between the departments is exactly the same as where the snow has fallen, but in general on the southern side of the Alps this year the snow has not been anything like as substantial as on the northern side.


Nozawaonsen, glad you edited that! When I looked at your first version I didn't understand it at all and thought I really am crap at this!!

Thanks for the explanation, Montgenevre is in Hautes Alpes so as it borders Claviere then Claviere is in the Southern Alps as I thought.

Just hope the snow holds up there for week of 18th March, don't mind short ski days as have a 4 year old, so we will be happy to have a late lunch in the sun, as long as its not too heavy and slushy early on, or bare!
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nozawaonsen,
Thanks - that map is ideal.
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After some beautiful, warm spring weather, in the coming week it currently looks reasonably good for a change in conditions with some cooler weather and snow in the Alps in a week's time (19/20 March).


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Mon 12-03-12 11:42; edited 1 time in total
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Typical March IMHO, ''always' seem to have a warm spell followed by snow, had great powder days in March and April over the past 10 years Very Happy
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Oh sounds good, although I was hoping for some sun!! Was hoping the snow would come this week to top up and then sun again next week! I just want it all!!! LOL
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Useful piece from Meteo Suisse.

Perspectives pluviométriques pour le début du printemps

Suggests:

- the start of Spring (so now), is likely to be dry or very dry.
- ECM showing negative rainfall anomalies through 25 March.
- Strong high pressure block until 15 March at least.
- Anticyclonic conditions likely to persist until at least the end of March.

So the trend is mild and dry.
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Gilly we are off to Montgenevre a little after your Claviere trip. We spotted greenery on the south facing side of Montgenevre on the village webcam rolling eyes. However hopefully there is still snow on the pistes themselves. When we went 2 yrs ago there were huge snowfalls at the end of March so we are hoping for a repeat of that. North facing slopes (most accessible from Claviere) still look OK. snowHead

Nozawaonsen - fingers crossed that the forecast snow arrives snowHead

If anyone goes to the southern alp resorts please can you update the snow reports.
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snowymum wrote:
Gilly we are off to Montgenevre a little after your Claviere trip. We spotted greenery on the south facing side of Montgenevre on the village webcam rolling eyes. However hopefully there is still snow on the pistes themselves. When we went 2 yrs ago there were huge snowfalls at the end of March so we are hoping for a repeat of that. North facing slopes (most accessible from Claviere) still look OK. snowHead

Nozawaonsen - fingers crossed that the forecast snow arrives snowHead

If anyone goes to the southern alp resorts please can you update the snow reports.


Hi Snowymum, we're off to MG on the 8th, a report on the snow etc would be great if you don't mind - getting a little nervous here!
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