The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

Had some very nice self earned turns at the upper end of the Chamonix Valley this morning 25ish cms... snowHead

A snowHead

The moral of this season seems to be go high or go home...

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Heavy rain today in Bansko, Bulgaria, to 1600m.

Town is completely snowfree.

Looks and feels like April.

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The Inntal was more like mid March than mid February today, green fields with snow only higher up the mountains. However once past Landeck things changed with considerable amounts of lying snow all the way down. In St Anton itself the roads are clear but most of the pavements are covered with a fair layer of fresh snow and all the buildings etc have lots of snow on them, its pretty much what you would expect. Parked cars are well snowed in. Given more snow is forecast early next week all looks well set for high season in the Arlberg at least.

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@munich_irish, rain definitely seemed to do some damage in the valley floor this morning, but should have been a few flakes above 1000m or so.

Yesterday just one valley over I was still skiing untracked powder to the valley floor at 4:30pm...

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Probably as much as 20cm or so of new snow in Gressoney, which made for lovely skiing today. Rather heavy off-piste, though, but great to be able to do a little exploring.

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A bit if fresh snow in Valmeinier and Valloire, it's not looking too bad above 1800m. A bit if a top up forecast for Mon/Tues, we shall see if that delivers.

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You know it makes sense.

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Bluebird day today at Courmayeur with fresh snowfall overnight, had fun on piste and playing off the sides. Winter wonderland drive up the valley, Courmayeur is in a spectacular setting with the Mont Blanc range looming like a wall at the head of the valley. Took til mid-morning to open the upper mountain and they were using explosives to set off controlled avalanches in the very top Youla/Cresta d'Arp sector. 30cm of fresh reported and that certainly looked accurate judging by what the piste basher was clearing around the jumps in the terrain park. Very mild in the sunshine, though the wind was keen at times. Some sunny pistes were softening in afternoon, but excellent overall.

A snowHead

This has really been a NW Alps 2000m+ winter. Winter never really started in the German pre Alps and ended in December in the southern Alps. I suppose things could turn around in late February or March, but it is not looking encouraging at the moment.

In previous winters I could ride my bike from Munich and tour. This year everything has been 3 hour plus drives with overnight stays. The locals say last winter was the deepest south of town in 50 years. This winter is the most futile in the same timeframe. I guess it balances out.

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@under a new name, I think we may of been skiing the same snow area yesterday, such a great day

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Above average snow depths at the Lac des Vaux measuring station

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And quality as well as quantity (excuse x-rated language Shocked

)

http://youtube.com/v/wxYO5XfZA9I

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@BobinCH, it’s just been a shocking season. Futile.

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In fairness @nozawaonsen, I don't think the season can be judged by a 20 second clip. Undoubtedly, there has been good snow available high up, but there have been repeated instances of snowfall followed by very high temps over the last period, despite it being February. In point of fact that snow @BobinCH skied is below the freezing line now, per snowforecast at least.

I don't think @altaski8 is saying you cannot ski good snow at all, but that the overall picture isn't good, and I suspect that is true and can be shown to be objectively true.

@8611, of course and I certainly wasn’t going to suggest this has been a good season. It hasn’t. It’s generally been too mild. But it hasn’t been futile either, although maybe in the area round Munich. I think it’s definitely favoured people who are in the very fortunate position of living close to the mountains and have been able to pick the opportunities when the conditions have been favourable.

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Last week was very snowy. Switzerland has been the sweet spot for weeks (especially southwestern areas). But if you believe the SLF graphics, a good portion of Switzerland will be below average snowfall to date when the next update is posted. The last one was dated Thursday morning, and it showed nearly the entire country below average. That preceded the most recent storm, so the current snowpack is deeper. However, a lot of the recent gains will be lost this weekend.

The majority of the Alps have not done as well.

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@8611, @nozawaonsen, well said both.

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I wonder what the best way of quantifying it in sking terms is over a season, some combination of precipitation and the average location of the freezing line? I think the main problem recently, Southern Alps excepted, has not been lack of precipitation its been the high freezing line.

Would it be possible or have they already developed an index reflecting these two most important of variables to actually rank a season in ski terms. How much fell and how cold it was on average I suppose. Wind clearly affects conditions and indeed open lifts but is less essential. We could then track the season by definite objective criteria (in fairness, people on this thread may already be doing this), albeit there will still be strong regional variations.

You know it makes sense.

No doubt it is an odd season from a snow sports perspective. I have just spent the day skiing in the Arlberg. Whilst I have seen better conditions they are pretty good. Almost everything is open, good snow depths and decent snow pretty much ideal with high season just about to kick off. However on the journey here it did not look like mid February, the fields in the Inntal were green, the only snow to be seen was up on the mountains much more like mid / end March. It is clear that many of the lower resorts are having a very bad season (I believe in France too not just in the Bavarian alps), the mild weather does not allow snow making either. If you are lucky enough to have a holiday in one of the higher snowier spots you should have a good time otherwise not so much.

The weather outlook seems much the same short snowy interludes (at least higher up) with a basic pattern of mild & dry with no sign of any change.

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A snowHead

@munich_irish, I’m not sure it’s really been that dry as an overall pattern in the northern Alps for the last few weeks.

A snowHead

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@nozawaonsen, even if you ignore the the medium and longer term forecasts, which you seem to want to, the nearer term ones are exactly as I described. GFS is suggesting a bit of a change early March but that really is too far in the future to be of any real relevance. Yes it seems likely there will be some short periods of precipitation over the next week or two but the general outlook is mild and dry (very!) early spring weather. Of course this fits in with all the various weather techie stuff +AO, +NAO, more arctic sea ice than expected etc etc. At some point all that cold air bottled up in northern regions is going to escape but given how late in the winter season we now are how much effect it will have on the weather in the alps is questionable.

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I think one of you is talking about the future and the other about the past

I'm just looking forward to the freak late season dump when the hordes have gone home, it always feels extra cheeky and the late afternoon drink all the more special

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@8611, keep your fingers crossed GFS is right about early March, if so that could be plenty of snow high up. Chances are the forecast will change over the next couple of days.......

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@munich_irish, yes as @8611, says I said the “last few weeks” as in the weather pattern has not been the same as it was in January (largely dry and mild dominated by high pressure) as it has been for the last few weeks (dominated by a very strong jet and as a result very different from the weather we had in January, much more stormy, particularly in the north and west) as it may be next week (quite cool) or the subsequent period, looks pretty mild and dry for a while, but then after that as you say “too far in the future to be of any real relevance.” I think you may have misread my post. The comment about wanting to ignore the medium and long term forecasts is as a result a bit of an irrelevance don’t you think?

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Arrived in Bormio on Wednesday. The runs below Bormio 2000 are mostly manmade snow. Above that there is good cover but it is rock solid.

My son was doing SG training on the Stelvio (U14 so starting below Ciuk/ San Pietro jump) and it quickly scraped back to blue ice in places. Could make for some scary moments for the kids (and watching parents).

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Too much doom and gloom here. I don’t buy it. I can only speak for Verbier first hand but have skied weekends since First w/e November and New Years week. I can remember only one bad day (windy and wet to 2300m), albeit January was a bit dry so had to work a bit harder for fresh tracks - even then pistes were fine. We are now in prime holiday period. As above, mid mountain snow depths are above average and up high is even better.

Looking elsewhere my guess, based on the popular weather threads here, is that most Snowheads ski in high resorts with plenty of North facing terrain - EK, 3V, Cham, paradiski, Zermatt, Arlberg etc. They all seem to have decent snow depths and conditions. In low resorts like PdS it has been a struggle.

So go high and you’ll be fine. If you go low be prepared for disappointment.

No idea who skis around Münich. Hardly representative for SH’s Puzzled

Very mild today with a strong Föhn at Play. However, with generally cooler temperatures from Monday for much of the week the snowfall (see chart for spread) will be to relatively low levels, mainly mid week. There may be light snow overnight on Monday too and that will be dependent on how fast the snow line is dropping. Further west it may start as rain in places (below 1500m) in the east the snowline looks like being closer to 1000m.

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Looks like a pretty good half term forecast in Verbier to me. Sunny and warm today and tomorrow. Forest skiing Tues/Weds and then back up high in the sunshine and cold smoke from Thurs onwards!

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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

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