 Poster: A snowHead
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@Ptspeak, The experts say it's difficult to predict with confidence more than a couple of days out. For me i'm stopping the constant viewing the forecasts right now and unwatching this topic ! I'll be in a fairly happy state, even if just on-piste and on artificial snow. It won't be a YIPEE, but i expect it still to be a WOW!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| pam w wrote: |
@geoffers, the great majority of snow evaporates, rather than swelling the spring watercourses.
I am sitting in the pre-Alpes and 30 cms would see our pistes ( on pasture) open.  |
Well runs are slowly opening with a bit of snowfarming of the snow that has and will fall and snowmaking.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
Well runs are slowly opening with a bit of snowfarming of the snow that has and will fall and snowmaking.
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Brilliant! Megeve looking good!
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@abbosphere @jimmybog @langball, NCEP spag is actually a special product of GFS and IMO is a much better way of reading it. Basically you want the red lines to cross below the Alps. It looks like a mess but it's very useful for snow forecasters.
Gerg explains it much better than I would.
http://gergs.net/2014/06/reading-spaghetti-plot/
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Ricklovesthepowder wrote: |
| @Toadman, the photographs coming from Mammoth show an incredible amour of snow. Surely this is the Californian resorts set up for the winter now? Also very good news for the severe drought the state is currently in. Tahoe should fill up to maximum capacity when the melt and thaw starts which is great news. |
Yes, this amount of snow will provide a solid base for the Tahoe ski areas. I believe the drought issues is a bit more complicated, however. Yes, the snow pack is above average at about 110%, which also applies to the Cascade range, which is having a stellar year. With the current AR coming into Central California, it will produce a lot of moisture that will fall as rain up to about 9,000', and could briefly go as high as 10,000'. This will undoubtedly produce flooding in the central valley. Already talk about rivers in the Sierra's overflowing their banks. This is definitely a case of too much all at once being not a good situation.
Squaw Valley Facebook page talked about the struggles of Avy Control. Patrol is having a heck of a time dealing with the conditions. I have a feeling the Tahoe Ski areas are going to have to order extra explosives for this winters avy control.
Meanwhile the cold air sitting over much of the rest of the West/PNW and the mixture of moist warm air coming off the Pacific will result in fairly decent snow accumulations in Utah, Colorado, Parts of Idaho and Wyoming.
The next wave is set to come in late Saturday and will impact much of BC, Canada, and on down the Cascades, into the Sierra's and beyond. This storm cycle is just a monster.
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| howiet wrote: |
Any snow for the French alps is a game changer!
The usual MF downgrade had just happened regarding the 10th. |
It's ridiculous isn't it? This is not just a case of FI being hard to predict, MF is clearly far too optimistic on snow as everything I've seen gets pushed back into FI from even as close as three days hence. I've started relying on Yr and Bergfex.
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12Z GFS has a nice uptick.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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13th on the ECM still looks interesting
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@snowheads68, was just thinking the same.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Friday 13th....rhymes with mageddon.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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'Mon the snow!
3b meteo have had this 13th thing on the radar, for Cervinia on their 14 day forecast for a week, slowly creeping in now, just 7 days off. I'll believe it when I see it. I wake up each morning expecting it to have vanished. Which it will, I'm going to guess on this will happen on Sunday. Yes, I am a miserable lady's front bottom. 
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@scotspikey, IF it should move to Saturday it had better not impact on GVA or there will be words.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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18z would certainly bring snow for the western Alps.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, can I have exact snow depths with squiggly graphs please for Monday 24th in cervinia?
*edit* reading back, my attempt at ironic humour might read as serious. This is not serious.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snowforecast is going to melt.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Here are the GFS 00z ensembles for the area close to Alpe d'Huez.
You can see several substantial spikes of precipitation in the operational run which would mean lots of fresh snow for the western end of the Alps (more so for the northern end of the French Alps).
At this stage there is some support from the other ensembles in the run though the operational run is possibly overdoing it so I'd be cautious about any figures from websites which draw their data from the operational run.
Could this still drop away? Yes at this range. As discussed above small shifts on where the high pressure sits can have big impact on snowfall patterns.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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The snow canon ban for the Northern Alps, particularly Haute-Savoie will be discussed early this coming week.
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Noza, thanks for the Alpe D'huez update. I'm thinking a little snow Tuesday and then over the past 48 hours the runs have continued looking better for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. I won't be offended if you call me naive, though!!
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| davidof wrote: |
| The snow canon ban for the Northern Alps, particularly Haute-Savoie will be discussed early this coming week. |
Snow cannon ban.! Can you give more information? Didn't know they had such things. A bit worrying as I'm leaving next week for that area and was feeling comfortable that at least the snow cannon would be in full swing given the low temps.
PS Or do you mean skiers of a particular religion have been prevented from entering the Alps
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@MikeM, There is a drought in HS, no fireworks allowed either due to pollution, we had some very unhappy guests at new year
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Noza, by which date should I start to get excited regarding the above potential snow?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Zorrac wrote: |
| @MikeM, There is a drought in HS, no fireworks allowed either due to pollution, we had some very unhappy guests at new year |
Not only pollution, was also the forest fire risk! That's how dry it is.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks like GFS has come on board for the 13th.
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Can someone refresh the page where you can input a lat n long please. Ta.
CG
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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What measurement is on the scale at the bottom of the wrf graph?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@carsey, cm (it mentions it top left).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ahh cool. Cheers Noza. Missed that. Here's hoping to some nice snowfall over Scotland this next week as season on hold at the minute. Very green 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Minus 17 this morning in saanen. Wrong day to be watching a race with only 1 layer and a jacket!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Here are the GFS 00z ensembles for the area close to Alpe d'Huez.
You can see several substantial spikes of precipitation in the operational run which would mean lots of fresh snow for the western end of the Alps (more so for the northern end of the French Alps).
At this stage there is some support from the other ensembles in the run though the operational run is possibly overdoing it so I'd be cautious about any figures from websites which draw their data from the operational run.
Could this still drop away? Yes at this range. As discussed above small shifts on where the high pressure sits can have big impact on snowfall patterns. |
Thanks for this, certainly looks more promising than a week or two ago although still some way out yet.
Apologies as I'm sure its been asked before (but I couldn't find it with a search) but where do you access/create this chart? (Specifically the Alpe D'Huez one?)
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Jamz: wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSENS00_45_6_201.png
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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GFS still going for it on the 13th.
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@snowheads68, where is it saying it will fall? am trying to work out what to do with our flights etc.... drive to st anton from geneva or stick with verbier?.....
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FAQ
