 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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12Z GFS looking good (well for Austria anyways).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hugs all round and normal service resumed 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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[b]@esaw1[/b Agreed!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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[b]@esaw1[/b Agreed!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| harrymac wrote: |
| @Oceanic, Pathetic? On what grounds? Just because Im not prepared to tolerate rudeness etc? I think you need to look at yourself as pathetic sums up your post perfectly. |
We get your point. If you'd have left it at that all would have been fine. Now you've become the keyboard warrior and are getting all aggressive for no real reason. You're now the reason why the thread has become more argumentative amd confrontational than I remember. if you don't like it don't visit the site. Simple. And you're still hijacking the weather thread.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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^^ Can you guys take this crap to the apres zone where it belongs please?
Beloved weather geeks please come back and continue, y'know, giving up your free time to help the rest of us out. Some of us appreciate it at least.
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| Quote: |
harrymac
user
Posts: 126
@Nelbert75, Sorry but all my posts have been polite, not a hint of aggression. Why should I not visit this site? I have every reason to. Again a perfect reply from a poster who sumarises a point with If you don't like it tough?? This sums up exactly what I said originally.
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Give it a rest mate, everyone was happy on here until you turned up and starting insulting everyone.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@clarky999,
+1
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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How many times does somebody have to be told something, before they realise that maybe they're not doing as they think they are? 
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@clarky999, +2
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You know it makes sense.
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@mheadbee, Excuse me 'mate' I havent turned up from anywhere I have been a member on here for a long long time and am not insulting anyone, i suggest to you and to@esaw1, @porkpiefox, @Chamcham, if you have a bone to pick send me a pm il be glad to answer. Or are we all sooo tough that we have to post public so we all have a back up. This again just typical on how pathetic so many member's on here are.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@harrymac, you'll give yourself a nose bleed at this rate.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Only us Brits could get this heated in a discussion thread about the weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@SkiTsar, How dare you say such things?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Only one way to sort this out. "Fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight"
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@clarky999, + however many we are up to by now 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Timbobaggins, first rule of weather club...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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By the way. Does anyone know what's happening with the weather? Last I heard it was snowing.
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| Quote: |
By the way. Does anyone know what's happening with the weather? Last I heard it was snowing.
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Lets ask Bill
“Today a young man on acid realized that all matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration, that we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively, there is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves. Here's Tom with the Weather.” 
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| Chamcham wrote: |
Closely packed trees with short clearings in between sound good, perhaps Megeve.
But that depends on the weather... |
Megeve sounds like a good plan, I hear they've really suffered. Some friends of ours had a nice walking holiday there over Christmas.... kids were none too happy to get new skis for Christmas from what we heard.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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12Z ECM looks interesting around the 13th
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I have never read so much tripe.
Yes some people can be a bit ott at times and some can't take a bit of stick.
This thread is supposed to be about the weather. Let's get back to discussing that rather than the backbiting and carrying on.
I am an unsociable little sod and don't really like that many people if they are not of a similar mindset. I probably wouldn't like many people on here if i met them but I do like to read what people have to say about the weather and snow conditions. Thanks to all that contribute and here's hoping we all get the snow and conditions we want.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| agw wrote: |
| Ghanny wrote: |
| Who said it was difficult to forecast exact snow depths? That Ski World forecast is showing 83.9cms for La Plagne between 17 and 25 Jan. Not 83cms, not 84 cms but 83.9! Idiots. |
Didn't you know that precision is the same thing as accuracy? |
That's 2 3/4 feet which is not exactly exact but presumably an estimate which has then been converted to euro stuff. Idiots.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Davidof is that 1 meter fresh equals closure actually a rule (of thumb or otherwise)?
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| harrymac wrote: |
| @Jellybeans1000, 100 % correct. Do you think Aosta valley will benefit from the next series of storms or will it be more northerly please? |
Probably more to the North, still 20cm at least for the upcoming one. The next couple will give better snow to the region.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Davidof is that 1 meter fresh equals closure actually a rule (of thumb or otherwise)? |
Well it was meant to be a bit tongue in cheek and to some extent 1 meter would be better than 50cm of windblown. The only thing that concerns me at the moment is that we've had nearly 2 months of anticyclone so a lot of the snowpack above 2000/2200 meters across France, Switzerland and probably further east is facetted snow so a considerable dump on top will see a big rise in the avalanche risk with some piste closures to be sure but once that is consolidated the next dump should be good for ChamCham's steep and deep.
The neighbour's husky was turning anticlockwise tonigh, he can feel it, the storm is coming soon.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It's perfectly acceptable for those of us with trips in the near future to be very concerned with the weather forcasts. Drinking during the afternoon is not a viable long term solution.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Snow Hound wrote: |
| It's perfectly acceptable for those of us with trips in the near future to be very concerned with the weather forcasts. Drinking during the afternoon is not a viable long term solution. |
Far worse ways to spend an afternoon
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Bitterly cold with strong winds in Gressoney today - most of the high stuff was closed but we did manage some lovely laps on crunchy / grippy snow. It's been trying to snow in the Monterosa area for the last couple of days without quite managing it. Some light snow falling as we drove past Chamonix and around the Morzine area as we made our way back to GVA a couple of hours ago. One for the experts but would pisted snow that has been lying on the ground for days feel better just because it's colder? Our hotel host suggested this is because the moisture content reduces and the flakes / crystals bond better?
@clarky999, + whatever the number is BTW.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Seems like a good day to have spent driving and sliding through blizzards in the Salzburg back country. Where the snow is very deep and plentiful and still coming down.
Perhaps worth putting this up here again.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.
Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.
Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously."
To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley. |
And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).
And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats). |
In terms of the general outlook it remains the case that within the reliable timeframe the northern side of the Alps will benefit far more than the southern side of the Alps.
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
The chart above is just another representation of GFS operational output so should be read with all the usual warnings, nevertheless it does show quite clearly how Italy and to a lesser extent France are likely to remain drier than normal (in Italy's case much drier), whilst Austria and to a lesser extent Switzerland are likely to have more snow than usual over the next week.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Absolutely soul-destroying for those of us going to south western Alps. Thanks for the continued updates, nevertheless.
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@mr_merc, sorry can't give you better news. As soon as there looks like something serious will let you know.
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@nozawaonsen
From looking at the current various charts etc, would you agree that Trois Vallées between now and 16th are likely to have a few small flurries, but nothing major?
All I'm hoping for (as a beginner) still is enough to make it look wintery and to freshen the pistes up.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Drew Carey, as a beginner - to be honest - you want flat pistes and blue skies. Everything else is luxury...
No?
You could have a wek of snow every day, with clouds? And high winds?
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| under a new name wrote: |
| You could have a wek of snow every day, with clouds? And high winds? |
Yes please, bring it on 
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FAQ
