 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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^ there's a smile on my face this morning too 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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roga, It must be freezing up at the Scottish resorts right now. Here in mancheter it's 8c and blowing a right gale so up there it should be good, now for another 12" to get things really going!
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"On Friday, winter comes."
Am Freitag kommt der Winter zu uns
- Heavy snow in places down to 700m.
Bergfex has been suggesting between four and five feet of snow falling on the Hintertux glacier over the next five days...
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 6-10-11 21:42; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, I'm hoping it's not down to 700m by tomorrow as need to drive up a few hundred metres for kindergarten run and still sporting summer rubber, time to make the swap. looking on http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur can see the rain moving down from the NW. If there's enough would love to get out on touring gear for a quick slide.
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The remains of hurricane Ophelia are driving snow across the Alps (primarily in the east).
Here's how it looks over the next week at present.
GFS accumulated weight of snow +180
Last year incidentally we had fairly substantial snowfall in the Alps around 19 October 2010 (this looks a bit heavier and colder, though focussed slightly further east).
At present it looks like temperatures will return to close to seasonal averages from mid week.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Fri 7-10-11 14:45; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looks like Europe isn't alone in an early season kick off, Mammoth Mt in California has had 18" of fresh since 5th October.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Looks like the same snow has fallen on th Dolomites too. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snow falling in the eastern Alps into Monday at least. Temperatures slowly rising back towards average over next few days (tomorrow night looks cold mind) and increasingly mild and settled over next week as high pressure reasserts itself.
You can se in this:
10 Day Precipitation outlook [Europe]
That whilst the eastern Alps will be getting quite a fair amount higher than average precipitation (snow this weekend), much of the rest of Europe (the southern Alps for example) is likely to be significantly drier than usual
On the subject of high pressure here are the Beijing Climate Centre pressure anomaly charts from 22 September.
November to January
December to February
January to March
February to April
You can see a general trend through winter and into spring to increase the likelihood of high pressure shifting towards Scandinavia.
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Chucking it down today at 1550m in the Beaufortain - has badly disrupted my autumn walking schedule but there's good rugby to watch.
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You know it makes sense.
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Looks like the snow will continue to fall through much of the night.
Here it is on WRF at midnight tonight.
After some fairly decent snowfall overnigt it moves east through Sunday morning fading as it goes.
Another band of wet weather will push through on Monday 10 October, temperatures will rise through the day with the snow line ending up more like 2000m to 2500m (possibly higher). So snow turning to rain in the valleys, but further substantial snow at altitude in the Eastern Alps particularly looks likely.
Milder and much more settled weather seems likely to then take over for much of the week, but it is worth noting that several recent GFS runs have seen much more unsettled and cool weather arriving in the first half of the following week. So no confidence, but worth keeping an eye on.
Further ahead still Weatheronline have put out some thoughts on early winter in the UK.
Cold end December? Chilly November too.
"Indications are that winters 'opening salvo' may be quite brutal, mainly cold and wintry for a time. Too early to say whether this cold weather will extend into the Christmas period just yet, winter 2011-12 may see some 'chopping and changing', but essential the prognosis is 'rather cold and lengthy'?"
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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GFS continues the pattern it was following yesterday with colder weather again reaching down from the north some time after mid month after a mild period from this Tuesday.
It's noticeable that it starts to build up high pressure over Greenland. When this intensified into a block at the end of last November this delivered the extremely cold start to last winter.
Interestingly there are some suggestions in the more recent CFS output that November this year might also see an increased tendency to high pressure anomalies round Greenland (though the forecast is nothing like as strong as it was at this time last year).
Anyway if this morning's GFS were right there would be quite a bit of snow arriving in the Alps from around 19 October. Still off in low res so low confidence at this stage (and ECM is not convinced yet).
In the meantime more heavy snow turning to heavy rain Monday night into Monday morning fading east as it goes. Snow line rising to at least 2000m.
Meanwhile (La Chaine Meteo):
Up to 70cm of snow in the Alps.
- 28 cm at Bonneval sur Arc
- 20 cm at Avoriaz
- Major winter offensive on Switzerland and Austria
And further ahead:
Prévisions saisonnières : vers un hiver assez froid
- January/February: cold and dry.
- Spring: mild and very dry.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, many thanks for this running commentary. Heading out on Friday so reading this thread very closely now 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Having monitored this thread day and night for 8 weeks last year I know that it is impossible to accurately predict the weather and "how long is a piece of string" is the nearest you can get to accuracy. But I have booked the family into Les Arc in March but am planning a lads 5 day trip in early Feb.
I have been to Chatel the last 3 years on this trip and it has been amazing but last year was pretty disappointing (as it was everywhere). I am wondering if a high Alt resort in France is the safest bet or should I give Austria a go. Austria always looks a bit low to me so does it suffer more than France if the snow is poor?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Because Austria is further east and further from the Atlantic it has a substantially cooler winter climate than France. On average this means that Austria will be 2C cooler than France during winter. In rough terms this translates to a 300m lower snow line in Austria.
So for (very rough and random) comparison of resort levels.
France
Chamonix 1035m
Arc 1600m
Les Deux Alpes 1650m
Samoens 720m
Les Gets 1170m
Meribel 1400m
Morzine 1000m
La Tania 1350
Val D'Isere 1850m
Val Thorens 2300m
Austria (+300m to take account of colder temperatures!)
Alpbach 1300m
Ischgl 1700m
Kitzbuhel 1060m
Lech 1750m
Mayrhofen 930m
Obergurgl 2230m
Obertauern 2040m
Saalbach 1300m
Schladming 1045m
St Anton 1605m
Of course that is just resort level and aspect (north or south facing) is also a key point. Moreover there can (and will) be substantial variation from place to place season to season.
So in short I'd say no. Austria as a country does not suffer more than France. Although individual resorts in both countries can suffer depending on snow cover.
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Temperatures rising on Monday as the last of the snow pulls through, then getting warmer still mid week before returning to seasonal averages.
This afternoon's GFS doesn't have the low pressure digging quite so deep into the continent. So whilst it would likely make things rather cool in the UK in the second half of October (possibly more snow for Scotland), the Alps would remain in a milder set up, though quite rainy at times.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Because Austria is further east and further from the Atlantic it has a substantially cooler winter climate than France. On average this means that Austria will be 2C cooler than France during winter. In rough terms this translates to a 300m lower snow line in Austria. |
That's very interesting actually, I've always realised that latitude has a big affect and hence skiing in Scotland (and for that matter Scandinavia) where mountains are not as high as the Alps, but never realised that in the eastern Alps the temps could be as much as 2C colder than in the west. I guess it's a no brainer actually since it's common knowledge that winters are colder to the east, but have never consciously acknowledged it.
Could the same sort of calculation be done for distance north?
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roga, short answer is I'm not too sure, the figures above for Austria were just meant to be illustrative.
I think for early winter the Scottish Highlands tend to be about 3-4C cooler than the French Alps on the 30 year average? But I'm not very confident about that figure. If it were right by the same logic as above you would add 450-600m. Which would put Cairngorm at 1000m to 1150m as an equivalent.
It's a very rough comparison anyway and that's even more so than the Austria one! I think you'd need to do some more research.
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nozawaonsen, interesting and you're right I should find out more - and advice on where to start?
When you say "Which would put Cairngorm at 1000m to 1150m as an equivalent" do you mean the base station/Cas car park? The summit would then be equivalent to between 1695 to 1845m in the Alps, not snowsure but a respectable height I guess!
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| Quote: |
Could the same sort of calculation be done for distance north?
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not straightforwardly, I guess, as so much depends on position relative to continental mass as well as ocean currents. Generally speaking the whole of the British Isles is rather warm compared to many other places on the same latitude because of the maritime influence. There are palm trees in Plockton, after all. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Temperatures in the Alps should be warming back up to mid autumn seasonal averages from today if they aren't there already. And further out despite the signs a few days ago, although it still looks slightly more unsettled in the second half of the month, the temperatures look close to average (cooler and stormier in Scotland mind).
Here is an assessment from the Tirol avalanche information service.
Rainfall and rising temperatures will heighten natural avalanches for a short period
"The heaviest snowfall was in the western and northwestern regions, where there was more than 100 cm of fresh fallen snow in some places. Elsewhere it generally snowed 30 - 60 cm.
An intense warm front which is embedded inside a northerly high altitude air current will move across the Alps today"
Similarly in Colorado.
Long Range [CPF]
"Good stuff…but will winter stick around? No."
Back to enjoying the falling leaves for a while longer...
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You know it makes sense.
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re above
sorry meant to add Bedtime reading for Noza
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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phillip33, thanks I'd seen this being picked up in the Sunday Times and the subsequent BBC story. It is being conflated in the press with stories about a severe cold winter coming. All off which seem to emanate from the same source. Which even if it says nothing about his forecast does highlight the speed with which a sensational story can get recirculated.
The research builds on earlier research about how solar cycles and rising and falling solar activity may have an impact of broad regional weather trends. It does not necessarily mean the coming winter will be cold!
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2011/10/10/met-office-in-the-media-10-october-2011/
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Poster: A snowHead
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It will be interesting how the Met Office reconcile this line of research to their statutory climate change dogma.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I don't think that is too difficult an argument to make. I would imagine it would be something like temperatures are likely to rise, but that based around the cycle you would see probable variation. With temperatures subdued at one end and accelerated at the other. I don't think the two are necessarily incompatible?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, I guess not, and I'm sure they will be able to make it fit, but I confess I'm increasingly a Met Office skeptic.
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So...
Met Office has also updated their long range probability map today.
Which sees a slight shift from last month (which was trending towards a cooler winter) and currently suggest more of an increased likelihood of average temperatures across the Alps and slightly drier more so in the south. Higher likelihood of milder temperatures in Scotland as we move through winter.
Early Winter temperature
No clear signal for most of the Alps, possibly slight increased of probability cooler than average temperatures in the far west. Slightly increased probability of average temperatures in Scotland.
Mid Winter temperatures
No clear signal for most of the Alps, slightly increased probability of average in north of Scotland (increased probability of milder in rest of UK).
Late Winter temperatures
Slightly increased probability of average for much of the Alps. Slightly increased probability of milder for UK.
Early Winter precipitation
Slightly higher chance of increased precipitation in Eastern Alps.
Mid Winter precipitation
Slightly higher chance of increased precipitation in Scotland. Slightly higher chance of decreased precipitation in Alps.
Late Winter precipitation
Increased chance of average for Eastern Alps. Increased chance of below average for Western and Southern Alps.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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moffatross, that would be October snow for the UK! (not there this morning mind...)
But some colder weather for the UK, especially for the north continues to seem to be on the cards for next week.
And some cold morning's coming up in parts of the Alps this weekend too. Though with high pressure dominating the second half of this week it should be clear and sunny over the weekend too.
(incidentally 19 October has cropped up on GFS again for potential snow in the Alps, not much support at this stage though, might come to nothing).
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Interesting CFS monthly anomaly chart today, showing the trend towards a cooler end to Autumn and start to Winter.
More indications cropping up in FI charts of heights starting to build round Greenland too.
In the meantime both the GFS control and operational starting to sketch out something for around 19 to 21 October in the Alps. Still a long way off. It will come into hi def in the next couple of days so maybe worth keeping an eye on. Let's see what it looks like tonight.
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nozawaonsen, Warm and sunny again here in Schladming.Snow has all but gone. Now I've had a taste I want more. So fingers crossed the 19 to 21 matures into something white and fluffy.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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