 Poster: A snowHead
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tomski01, what height is the place you're going?
TBH I hadn't looked at any proper forecasts or weather reports for the Alps for some weeks, so I didn't know what the current conditions were.
However I've just compared the GFS output for this evening and the Meteo France prediction for the 0C isotherm at Meribel and it shows how far out this method can be.
GFS 850hpa temp = 5/6C
Meribel temp = 5C
850hpa is (very roughly) at 1500m. As the station is somewhere at 2040m then this shows a 500m difference.
Now, assuming dry air you'd expect the temp to drop by roughly 1C per 100m the GFS temp would expect the temp. to be 0C at 2000m and -10 at 3000m.
Meteo France has the temp as 5 at 2000m and the 0C at 3100m. Thus the prediction is 5C out at 2000m and 10C out at 3000m.
However, it's a bit closer to the mark for tomorrow (2-3C at 200m and 5-6C at 300m).
I don't know for sure, but I guess that in clear sunshine you'll get a warmer air temp close to the mountain as the ground warms up the air close to it. Thus in clear weather you need to increase the predicted FL. However, if it rains/snows the FL may be closer to the predicted level, though evopration cooling and other factors (foehn effect, etc) will also have an influnce. As I say though that's a guess and it would be good if anyone knows the actual reason - if you bump into a local forecaster while you're out there, you could ask for me. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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hiya. Off to 3 valleys on 3rd April, staying in Meribel...after such a fantastic season rain is now being predicted by snow-forecast.com because of the warm weather  !!! Somebody tell me it's still gonna be fantastic there!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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mowgli, Its gonna be fantastic there. Weather will cool friday next week with lots of rain, but above 1400 metres this will fall as snow. Los of snow Fri, Sat , Sun, beautiful spring weather for the following 2 weeks. This is based n my own peronal theory that if I think positive it will happen.
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Hey thanks! That's a good theory to live by! Fingers crossed!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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mowgli, Was that a "Hey Thanks" but f all use thank you very much
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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No it was a "hey thanks" as in "hey thanks"! As long as it stays cold at night it should be ok right?
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It's certainly quite possible that it will snow at the end of March/Beginning of April...so you should probably assume as much for now. 
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Is there anywhere I could find a predictable long range weather forecast website?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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mowgli, Welcome to Snowheads. Hope you did not misunderstand my meaning, I did use the "wink" smiley.
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No worries. All ok. Thanks for the welcome. :nice:
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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mowgli, personally I don't think that there's any such thing as a "predictable" long range weather forecast (by that I think you mean reliable), but try Metcheck (www.metcheck.com), Snow-Forecast and if you know how to read model outputs and charts, http://wetterzentrale.com/topkarten. Some people get it right sometimes, but that's mainly educated guessing and they're wrong more often than right. It's the nature of the beast, really.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Yeah I think I should just stop worrying about it...will just have to wait and see! Wish I'd gone this week though. :roll:
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I'm off to Zurich over Easter to ski various resorts and I'm not worrying...yet 
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You know it makes sense.
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Should be snow in the Austrian Alps overnight and tomorrow with maybe some making it into eastern Switzerland and Italy.
After that there could be showers or light precip pop up anywhere in the Alps though probably nothing major. That is until Monday night when a set of fronts look to move through Europe. This should give precipitation to areas of the Alps, especially the western end. Amounts vary between models and runs so we can't say exactly. The precipitation could last (with breaks) until the end of the week. Temperature wise we should see some slightly cooler air around during the early-middle part of the week, but it could well warm up again towards the weekend - though there's less confidence there.
All a bit varying at the moment, but that seems to be the trend.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Apparently, it's "bl*ody warm" in Zurich at the moment...
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Poster: A snowHead
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It's extremely warm in Les Saisies. Our apartment is at 1500m and I was dismayed to find that at 5am this morning it was well above freezing - around 3 degrees. I think this is the first time it has not frozen over night. Unless there is a huge drop in temperature all but the top of the highest resorts will see the forecast precipitation fall as rain. Geneva airport felt almost tropical at 2130 last night, and at 5pm I had been sitting in a T shirt eating icecream at a cafe on the shore of Lake Annecy, feeling too hot in the sun in denim jeans and mountain boots and envying the many people wearing shorts. The snow is disappearing at an astonishing rate. Conditions on piste are still good if you get the time and aspect right, but for how much longer, especially if it rains?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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tomski01, Good on ya for the positive thinking, lots of resorts have good cover, and with a bit of luck should get topped up next week. OK its hot but there is not much wind which reduces the melt speed. We had a good time at the start of Jan and the snow depths in general are still double that we had then.
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Temperatures should drop to 12/13C at 300 meters on Tuesday with much more unsettled weather. Meteo France give the snow level as 2800 meters on Wednesday for the Northern Alps, which is less good. Winter was short, but sweet.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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davidof, yeah, well not so sweet for me yet!!
Im persoanlly am hoping that meteo france is wrong!!! metcheck is showing a freezing level of 1800m for weds with lots of snow....which at this juncture i would probably take, lets hope the FL doesnt rise too much!!!
still, its sunny here today, shortes and t shirts weather int it!
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tomski01, dont panic yet. Some models seem to be saying the heavy rain could be next weekend and that the temps will drop a fair bitalso. Very interesting to see how things change every few hours.
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Rest assured chaps, if there is any precipitation of the white & fluffy kind I will be reporting it via a cyber-cafe somewhere! All packed up, ready to go tomorrow morning. Weather forecasts saying we'll get something on Tue/Wed/Thur... fingers crossed. Look out Mel & the rest of Serre Che, here we come...
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carled, have a good one!!!
Frosty the Snowman, heres hopin!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snow-forecast still saying f/l struggling to get below 2150m all week, and rising again after Wed when it drops to 2150.....
I'm off to La Tania mid april, so I hope it cools down and dumps at least above 2000m!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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tomski01, AFAIA the model has no inclination to tend towards the seasonal mean (though the weather itself may do - but I ain't going there, here). The trend is certainly for cooler and now UKMO, ECMWF, DWD and one or two others are all expecting an LP to push south of the UK towards the latter half of Easter (after a spring-like start for the UK at least). This would bring easterlies to most of central europe which, while no longer very cold, could drop temps somewhat. GFS is the one model not wanting this (though interestingly it progs the same set-up a week later). Even so, it still wants to drop temps. I'd expect more precip in the set-up suggested by UKMO & ECMWF etc., but the GFS one could bring some to southern areas os the Alps (though it would also bring it with warm air again).
I haven't looked at this week in detail, but with rain bands crossing the UK Tuesday and Thursday, they should bring stuff to the Alps Tues/Wed and Thurs/Fri (the latter may die out quickly over the continent as the HP ridges NE - so may not reach the mountains, but it's too early to tell [EDIT- latest FAX charts suggest the front(s) will make it that far]). As for the FL, luckily the bulk of the precip should be at night, and I think it'll drop below 2000m then, but the next day, esp. as the cloud clears, it'll probably rise above 2000m on Wednesday, so any showers may fall as rain though with dewpoints at 0C things may not be too bad....I think. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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skanky, meteo.fr threaten rain below 2400m to 2700m this week all around the Alps 
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PG, FL is the bit I do least well (or not at all well, if you wish to be accurate), so I don't doubt them. As I don't can't see where they get the extra 5-700m though, I'll stick with my (rough) figures and try and work out where I went wrong after the event. Also, I would have thought the Alps-wide variation would be more than that.
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You know it makes sense.
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skanky, sorry meant the French Alps. Hope you're right - we can live with 2000m!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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PG, if I am, it'd be the first time with FL. Closest I've got before was 500m.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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light at the end of the tunnel, snow-forecast has f/l down to 1750m by Sunday in Courcheval, fingers crossed.....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Good, I was finding it difficult to source a goretex XCR brolly.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I'm off to Obergurgl on Sat 26th and am getting a bit worried. HOWEVER, there does seem to be a bit of hope. They are predicting temps to decrease from about weds onwards with snow on weds friday and the weekend and into monday. This seems to be the trend throughout the alps i think, so perhaps we might be lucky (those who are going in the next week or so.) The last few years i've been at this time of year, and the trend seems to be that theres normally a warmish spell in mid march and then usually a large dump around late march/early april. Well, that's my experience in the last 4 years anyway! Just hope my luck carries on
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Skanky, thanks for the link to metcheck - I had only found Meteo France before - but am now feeling a bit more optimistic about next week's trip to Tignes. Usually go earlier in the season but my son's university term dates have pushed us to Easter.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I don't have Skanky's expertise, nothing like, but I feel pretty happy about conditions for next week at Val D. I don't think I'll be taking my lightweight jacket though! Most forecasts show it getting colder from Sunday onwards with plenty of new snow. Most of Western Europe is in mild air at present, but it will change. Frosty the Snowman, if things get desperate, we'll meet you on the La Motte Glacier at Tignes!
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FAQ
The trend seems to be cooler at and from the weekend with precipatation 
