 Poster: A snowHead
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| kitenski wrote: |
| Be interesting to see if any of this sticks around higher up for a base, we’ve often had very warm spells in the run up to Xmas in recent years (from memory) |
That base is only going to grow now above 2000m. Cold enough temps, short days, lots of precip in 2 week forecast… it looks really good to me
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just hope this isn’t the ‘cold spell’ 
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@Peter S, well, yess!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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19C forecast for the valleys next weekend. I'll get the bike out again.
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| polo wrote: |
| Where are you seeing 19c? |
Meteo France for Grenoble but they seem to have moved that down to 15-16C now, still ok for cycling but not quite so pleasant.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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First half of Nov looks like a conveyor belt of storms sweeping in off the Atlantic and slamming into the European Alps.
Good offpiste and touring already available at altitude in parts of Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France.
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If Whitegold is positive its definitely time to wax the skis
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Whitegold, @8611, I’ll certainly take this for the moment Great start mid mountain upwards and currently more to come cast your mind back to last season we’re weren’t at these depths high mountain till Jan
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looking back at how the long term models did for October
First a recap of what actually happened, 1. first half of Oct was high pressure dominated, 2. second half saw low pressure set up over NW europe, 3. with the month as a whole showing lows running from east atlantic to Scandinavia
  
Comparing to what was forecast, 1. shows the blended outlook of all 8 models, pretty poor really for UK/north france area, as on average they completely missed the mid month switch.
2. shows the GEM model, known as ECCC, which once again was the closest / most accurate of the long rangers, still not great for NW europe, but overall got the iceland high, S-E euro high, stronger scandi low, further east alantic low
 
Some of the Nov updates for winter are rolling out now....not yet available on meteociel C5S page, but I've got the ECM sea level pressure charts for DJF.
3 month anomalies aren't going to tell us much about snow or cold on a week to week basis, so all I'm looking for is a move in the right direction....and comparing the Oct update to Nov update, it's positive.
 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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wow indeed - thats stunning
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Poster: A snowHead
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@clarky999, quite lovely!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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but 16C at 400 meters (valley level) means 0C at around 1800 meters or more, above the bottom of the ski runs in most resorts.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@clarky999, as a matter of interest did you see them with the naked eye?
Lots of similar pics on social media last night. Brought kid out to see them. Nothing doing.
Turns out the online pics were long exposure shots and it seems for the most part the people taking them could not (or only barely could) see it with the naked eye but the long exposure "captures" it.
Which was a little disappointing to me to say the least
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@8611, I was sleeping 
Those pics are pulled directly from the webcam though, which I am pretty sure is not capable of any long exposure or otherwise artsy trickery!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@clarky999, I think it must be set for a slightly longer exposure in low light – there are a lot of stars in the fist pic, possibly the Milky Way on the left there, and the Plough is very clearly visible on the second pic. Also there's smoothing on the wind gauge. The web cam is on a fixed mount, so it makes sense.
But mostly, I'm just annoyed that I didn't see them either!
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@davidof, same Grenoble link is now showing highs of 11 and 10 for Fri-Sat, while Sunday is warmer at 13.
Up here in the far northern reaches of Haute Savoie, the forecast at Lac Leman (380m) is highs of 7c fri and 9c sat, while at 1500m it doesn't get much above zero. Even YR.NO (which uses the normally milder ECM) has -3 to +3 all weekend just under 1200m.
https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-3000902/France/Auvergne-Rh%C3%B4ne-Alpes/Upper%20Savoy/Les%20Gets
There is disagreement on the overnight runs for Sunday, GFS has it getting warmer. But Fri-Sat looks cold enough for snow to the valley. Alps valley as opposed to pre alps, so 1000-1200m, which is the bottom of most resorts here. Anyway who needs resorts, won't be hard to find a hill with snow.
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Snowfall records broken on the French / Swiss border last weekend
https://www.slf.ch/fr/bulletin-davalanches-et-situation-nivologique/avablog/202324/avablog-30-octobre-6-novembre-2023/
4/5 November: Third spell of heavy snow in the west of France
Third time's a charm! The next episode of heavy snowfall was not long in coming. At an altitude of between 1300 and 1700 metres, the snowfall limit was much lower on the weekend of 4 and 5 November. In the west and north, the wind was once again very present: first a foehn storm raged, followed by a strong to stormy westerly wind.
In much of the west, the snowfall was between 30 and 50 cm, while further east it was less. In the west and north of the Lower Valais, between 50 and 70 cm of snow fell, and even more on the border with France - but how much more?
The weather models predicted very high precipitation values over small areas, which were partially confirmed by the precipitation radars. The IMIS automatic station at L'Ecreuleuse (2252 m) led the way with a total of 172 cm of fresh snow in 4 days. The snowfall reached a new daily record of 124 cm. Previously, on 5 November, there had been a maximum of 83 cm of snow, and an average of 21 cm. And that's for a series of measurements spanning 26 years. With values like these, we have to bear in mind that the amount of fresh snow is not always representative in the event of a storm, because even on measurement fields that are fairly sheltered from the wind, the snow can be blown away or deposited by the wind. Although we do not consider this value to be absolutely reliable, precipitation totals were nevertheless very high in the west.
Snow pack rupture on Mont Fort glacier
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Weathertoski:
Right now, there is quite a lot of snow on the ground at higher altitudes in the Alps. Over the weekend, the heaviest snow fell in the north-western Alps, including the high resorts of the northern French Alps (e.g. Tignes, Les Arcs, La Rosiere, Chamonix), the higher resorts of the western Swiss Alps (e.g. Glacier 3000, Verbier) and the far north-west of Italy (e.g. Courmayeur, La Thuile). Some of these areas saw close to 1m of new snow above 2300m, with a rain/snow limit typically around 1500-1800m, but a bit lower later in the weekend.
Most of the rest of the Alps also have an encouraging amount of snow at altitude though, on the whole, it is nothing to get excited about below 2000m or so yet. It is only areas above about 2300m that can now be reasonably sure of a lasting base into the main season.
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@Old Fartbag,
| Quote: |
only areas above about 2300m that can now be reasonably sure of a lasting base into the main season
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That's still a good thing though 
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Good looking snow up above Chamonix. Unfortunately, I can't work out how to post from Facetwat
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| polo wrote: |
| @davidof, same Grenoble link is now showing highs of 11 and 10 for Fri-Sat, while Sunday is warmer at 13. |
Yes, expecting considerable snow above 1200-->1500m on Thursday.
Given the very strong winds during the previous snowfall I'd take care before heading out on some insane, high altitude ski tour. Saw some pretty wild trip reports posted on Sunday with people touring in blizzard conditions.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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But it shows a freezing level of 3000m or higher over most of the alps?
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You know it makes sense.
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That's just an unhelpful feature of those maps.....it only shows the FL at the end point, ie 15th above.
Here's the exact same run but only out to Sat 11th showing 1200m, which again is unrelated to the accumulated snow quantities. Likewise note the change in isobars, running north-south on Sat 11th, west-east on wed 15th.
Sun-Tues btw is also looking very mild and wet on GFS, with FL rising from 2000 to almost 3000m as warmer air arrives from the SW into France. Other models aren't as bad, so maybe it's just the GFS over doing it.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Mild spell enough to melt much, @polo? We’re out two weeks Thursday and were hoping for a short skin up/slide down somewhere. Maybe up from Avoriaz?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@andy from embsay, 2 weeks thursday is beyond my crystal balls. Lets see how much falls this weekend, then how much rain falls, and then what happens in the 10days after that 
I'm pretty sure the snow that falls below 1600m there will have to be replaced either way.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@polo, yep, realise it’s a long time away but as there’s a decent covering in Avoriaz I was wondering how much damage next week could do.
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@andy from embsay, if I knew I'd tell ya.....will update the PdS thread with anything of local interest
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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For now, it looks like snow, rain, snow for the next 3 weeks in the European Alps.
Somewhere highup, above 2000m, in the west, like Tignes, could see another 100-150cm before the month is out.
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Some avalanche information for the Tarentaise:
Above les Arcs at 3000m there is 130cm of snow depth but very uneven due to the storm force winds. Mixture of windcrust, sastrugis and even bare ice where the wind has removed the snow.
The quantity of recent snow and wind has consolidated the snow pack in general. No obvious weak layer or PWL so a good start to the season.
Quite a few full depth slides on the steep, grassy slopes of the Beaufortain due to the quantity of snow.
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ECM long term model Nov update is out today.....the others should be out on friday
Nov seems to be a projection forward of what we've seen for the last few weeks, low's over UK and W_NW flow on average towards alps, blocking north and east, so unsettled and around average temps. Dec looks milder and drier under SW influence. Jan colder with atlantic ridge, north sea low.
Pretty standard, but wouldn't take any of them too seriously.
  
Regarding the weather early next week.... I could go with "if you have nothing good to say, say nothing at all".
But on closer inspection, maybe it's not that bad. It sure looks bad on the ECM ensembles below with 850 temps rising to +10c (2800-3000 FL) by tuesday with lots of precipitation, then better towards the weekend.
GFS is slightly cooler, and the latest Op in fact shows the FL might not get much above 2700, with most of the ppn falling at lower 2000's. Other models also hint that it might just be tues-wed with high temps and then a quick return to average levels by thursday.
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Meteo Tarentaise forecast for the end of the week
  Forecast for your disturbed episode of Thursday and Friday:
New turbulent time is coming for Thursday and Friday
Another disturbance coming tomorrow morning already covered in the sky.
The first precipitation arrives around 11/12.
The LPN is at the beginning of the disturbance at 1800m, and will remain the same for the afternoon.
Have to wait until late afternoon/early evening to see the LPN drop to 1500/1600m.
This first disturbed passage remains rather weak, on the order of 5/7mm, locally 10mm.
We expect 5/10cm above 2000m.
A small calm is then expected in the first part of the night before a resumption of rainfall expected in the second part of the night, starting at 3/4h.
Snowing in the second part of the night from 1400m then 1300/1400m at sunrise.
The LPN continues its descent Friday morning at 1100/1200m in the late morning into the late day, rainfall could last much of the evening and into the following night, with the latest rainfall that could form snow up to 800m on Saturday late night.
On this episode, a cumulus of the order of 20/30mm, locally 35cm is expected in the valley.
Above 1800m, 20cm, 25/30cm above 2000m is expected, which could result in a layer of snow of the order of 30/40cm over the 2 days from 2100/200m and locally more on the most affected areas above 2300/2500m.
Thank you for reading, see you on Friday for the next bulletin of your weekend!
Roman VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise Tarantaise summer
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The models are starting to agree on the weather patterns over the next 10 days. A warming as lows roll in from the Atlantic and a cooling in between. Will tend to add to accumulations above 2000m but now should have read NOT cold enough to build a base in the valleys.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Thu 9-11-23 7:37; edited 1 time in total
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@Boarderfarce, not sure I agree with that assessment. Above 2000m ish there should definitely be a net gain over the next week, but at valley level the rain and higher temperatures from next weekend will melt any snow that falls before then.
Mid mountain - more difficult to say. Depends on how much precipitation falls during the milder period, which the models don't agree on yet.
That's for the NW Alps, but it's not substantially different elsewhere.
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