 Poster: A snowHead
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@peanuthead, I’m with you on that. And I can’t (although I’m not looking all that hard as I’m not all that concerned) find any qualified individuals commenting on sm to suggest we’re wrong.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@under a new name, I guess we'll see what transpires but my guess by January there'll be no more fuss about this strain. I just dont buy it. There are constantly new strains. There is explosion of cases here too but it is 100% to do with people going mad in run up to Christmas. How can they possibly separate the very difficult to measure impact of changes in people behaviour from inherent changes in the virus? A few months ago we heard about similar super-trasmissible strain in USA. Yet people behaviour remains single most important factor in determining spread
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Also in confused by European country reaction also. A convenience also to stop people travelling before Christmas without being accused of being grinch?? If this is such a transmissible strain that's been in London for months or MUST already be entrenched all over Europe!
Irelands reaction most ridiculous of all- ban flights for 48 hours! So flights will be rescheduled to Wednesday and all those planning to come home will for Christmas will return anyway but crowding into airports over shorter period
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| KenX wrote: |
| clarky999 wrote: |
| fixx wrote: |
| Just got a BBC alert - France has banned entry from UK. Passenger and human-handled freight transport suspended for at least 48 hours from midnight. |
Does "human-handled freight transport" mean normal lorries (as opposed to containers loaded onto ships or trains or whatever)? |
Containers will be loading as per normal, just human-driven lorries are banned..... |
I think something of the order of 7,000 a day trucks use Dover ferries and 3,000 + the tunnel (not entirely sure of those figures but lots) carrying everything from lettuce to car parts. Container ports are already logjammed for other reasons and are not suitable for fresh produce / just in time manufacturing parts etc. To change to unaccompanied trailers would mean a huge increase in loading / unloading time for ferries and probably practically impossible on tunnel. I think we have a chaotic few days at least..........
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| @under a new name, I guess we'll see what transpires but my guess by January there'll be no more fuss about this strain. I just dont buy it. There are constantly new strains. There is explosion of cases here too but it is 100% to do with people going mad in run up to Christmas. How can they possibly separate the very difficult to measure impact of changes in people behaviour from inherent changes in the virus? A few months ago we heard about similar super-trasmissible strain in USA. Yet people behaviour remains single most important factor in determining spread |
Yes, I think this is probably correct. The mutant virus story suits both the media and the Government. However, I don't reckon they anticipated the European response of closing the ports/stopping flights and so what was a convenient justification for the last minute change in the Xmas rules has spectacularly backfired.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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35,000 new cases yesterday. Give that 2 weeks to hit hospital and another week to get serious.
Mid Jan by the real effect. I suspect when EU etc see these numbers in 2-3 weeks then I suspect there will be an extension of the international travel ban.
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I have just read the ECDC document on this
Take home points
-UK sequences much higher proportion of virus isolates than anywhere else. In fact it has contributed 120,000 of 270,000 sequences to global database. So UK is ideally positioned to recognize new strains. Also the new strain may also be already much more widespread in other European countries, who sequence much fewer isolates.
-the number of mutations seems more than would arise randomly. It is not clear how exactly the strain arose
I still find it hard not to wonder if some political mileage been made out of this
-the increased transmissibility issue is based on preliminary modelling data communicated to ECDC by teleconference and no data submitted. Further work is needed to investigate if it really is more transmissible. Therefore I wouldn't get too excited right now. We have all seen how wrong the models have repeatedly been, and this is still only preliminary analysis!
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How closely do we monitor other viruses? Are we finding more strains because we're looking harder? Second point seems a bit conspiracy theoryish
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
Also the new strain may also be already much more widespread in other European countries
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and elsewhere too
given that it was detected in September, was relatively rife in London and South East during the whole of November, and they suddenly just decided they had to tell the public the other day, err yeah, it's probably quite a bit further than UK shores.
someone, somewhere on both sides of La Manche has been keeping something from the public, hoping to get away with gradual let down for the Christmas period, and it's spectacularly back fired. and that may explain why Germany went in to a full lockdown and totally cancelled Christmas and New Year when the numbers reported by RKI were on a general down trend, followed by (large portions of) UK within days.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| Irelands reaction most ridiculous of all- ban flights for 48 hours! So flights will be rescheduled to Wednesday and all those planning to come home will for Christmas will return anyway but crowding into airports over shorter period |
Ireland enacted the 48 hour ban on UK flights as a short term provision yesterday, Sunday, before Irish cabinet could meet. The ban will, by all accounts, be extended well beyond 48 hours.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@chocksaway, thanks for posting. I think though all consistent with jury still being out and further information awaited.
The most appropriate reason for increasing restrictions in London would appear to be explosion in total virus cases, not the new strain which I believe represents less than 10% of UK cases
The biggest problem at the moment I think all would agree is people behaviour, not new virus strains (not that I blame people... it is all getting very tedious at this stage and all of our sanities are being tested)
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@5RED, sounds like you could be right!
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