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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12zGFS is cold in FI...

(from next Wednesday the op goes cold with strong support, then colder at the end of the month, though as more of an outlier).


http://youtube.com/v/s5TaDrBHkV0

ECM sees cold weather building in Central Europe too.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow pressing in on Tuesday, temperatures dropping from Wednesday. Here it is on WRF.

Tuesday 0900 (snow reaching into the western end and southern side of the Alps)
Tuesday 1800 (snow now focussed around the Arlberg)
Wednesday 0300 (pushing into Tirol)
Wednesday 0900 (more widespread across Alps, weaker, but colder)
Wednesday 1800 (continuing strong in places)
Thursday 1800 (weaker, but still snowing Thursday evening)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
mheadbee,
I'd like to believe it but.......
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week

Don't believe anything in rags like the express etc - they admit.....
Quote:
at the Met Office ... the press office contacted a tabloid newspaper to ask why they continued to print such weather stories which invariably turned out to be wrong.

Their answer was very honest, straightforward and unapologetic.: Weather sells newspapers they said; admitting that each and every time they had a front page story on extreme weather, their circulation went up by around 10%.


Here's some of their sensational front pages, courtesy of this BBC blog http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/whats-behind-the-coldest-winte
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Colder in the Alps from Wednesday and possibly colder still the week after on ECM.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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...with a reasonable chance of a decent dumpage this week too for France at least.

Lovin' these great starts to the season Madeye-Smiley
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Does that show it is going to be 20 degrees at the North pole? How does that work in November?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
emwmarine, isn't that the anomaly temp, the difference from 'normal'.
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Yes that is the temperature anomaly but at around 1.5km above ground. In some situations you can determine the temperature just above ground level from those charts using a basic formulae but this doesn't work in the mountains or in winter. What that chart is really telling you is whether it is going to be warmer or colder than average on the 27th November

Nozawonsen, correct me if I'm wrong
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The chart above is indeed a temperature anomaly chart.

Here's the 00z ECM temperature chart for +216.



And the anomaly for the same time.



It's the same information displayed in a different way. Not so sure what you mean about 850 temperatures not working for winter or mountains. It's always a pretty rough calculation, but works pretty well in my experience.

More snow at the end of the week especially for Zermatt on GFS.
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geoffers wrote:
Here's some of their sensational front pages, courtesy of this BBC blog http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/whats-behind-the-coldest-winte



Here's an even more shocking weather news story: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/britain-to-be-hit-by-entirely-typical-weather-201110174431



Laughing
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Gotta love the Daily Mash Smile
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Update from SLF.

Weather review to Friday, 15.11.

Between Thursday evening and Friday evening the following amounts of snowfall were registered above 2000 m:

-Upper Valais, Gotthard region, central Grisons, 20 to 30 cm; from Monte Rosa into the Simplon region, as much as 50 cm
-elsewhere 10 to 20 cm widespread; in the Prealps, maximum 10 cm

On Friday southeasterly winds were blowing at moderate to strong velocity in northern regions; in the remaining regions winds prevailed at light to moderate strength. On Saturday and Sunday it was generally sunny above the high fog. The zero-degree level was at 3000 m. Winds were blowing at light to moderate strength from southerly directions.

On Monday in southern regions skies were heavily overcast and above approximately 1600 m a few centimeters of new fallen snow was registered. In northern regions it was partly sunny, accompanied by moderate strength winds from southerly directions. The zero-degree level was at 3000 m in northern regions, at 2000 m in southern regions.

Weather forecast through Wednesday, 20.11.

On Tuesday and Wednesday in the Valais and on the southern flank of the Alps, snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level is expected to drop from 1600 m down to about 1000 m. On the northern flank of the Alps and in remaining Grisons skies will become increasingly overcast on Tuesday. During the course of the day, light snowfall is expected to set in and continue until Wednesday. Southerly winds will be blowing at light to moderate velocity. In high alpine regions, intermittently strong southeasterly winds are anticipated on Tuesday.

By Wednesday evening above 2000 m the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are expected:

-Main Alpine Ridge and southern flank of the Alps, 15 to 30 cm;
-in the Simplon regions as much as 50 cm
-remaining regions: 5 to 15 cm

Outlook

On Thursday, 21.11, and Friday, 22.11, there will be heavy cloud cover and widespread snowfall down to low altitudes. The avalanche danger is expected to increase somewhat from region to region.
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all sorts going on over the next few days - looks like Switzerland gets the most snow, with just some light showers for the French resorts but seems hard to predict
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks like Retour de l'est in the Tarentaise today , judging by webcams dumping in Val and Tignes , dry in Ste Foy . les Arcs and la Rosiere .
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I think this is looking like one of the best starts to a season in a long time. Val Thorens is opening properly this weekend with a load of ski manufacturers offering tests. I think some lifts might be opened early.

Are the conditions as good across the Alps generally?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I listen to France-Info on medium wave driving in to work and they were getting all excited about it being "vigilance Orange" in 12 departements "en cause de neige" with 15cm down in St Etienne.
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andyrew, Unfortunately the snow has stayed west of the French Alps so far
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
not Valdisere it hasn,t
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60cms LOWER
80CMS UPPER

thats a hit for me
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Been snowing in town since last night in chamonix, so I guess red 27 is somewhere near Pra loup?
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phillip33, Grum p, I'm trying the old trick of leaving home without an umbrella, hoping it will rain wink
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Well in that case, we've DEFINITELY had less snow in haute savoie than over the border in valais, and frankly neither areas had much snow at all for this time of year Happy furthermore, the meteo ( which I canny link to on my phone, but chamonix-meteo.com sounds about right) is not at all looking like a good 48 hr of top up.
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http://www.valthorens.com/hiver-fr/val-thorens/infos-live/livecams--webcams/livecam-station.550.html

Looking the best I have seen at this time of year for many many years. #

Will be out there in a week or so.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Tomoz morning looks like a decent hit for Savoie Smile
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I've not been able to get the Meteo France website since this morning. anyone else having problems?
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Yes, it was diverting me to a weather warning holding page due to too much traffic . Seems Ok now though (from UK tho')
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mishmash, I am in the UK. Still can't get it. My browser says "Firefox has detected that the server is redirecting the request for this address in a way that will never complete"

I'll wait and try again in the morning - get more up to date weather then!
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no prob on safari. which bit you want to know about?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Bedroom window, Geneva suburbs, local traffic chaos...

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
This is showing plenty of precipitation over the Alps during today, which is nice! http://meteo.search.ch/prognosis

I've generally found it very accurate for 12 hours, and pretty good for 24 hours out. I use it to decide when to leave work to avoid showers Smile
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Call me old fashioned but it rather looks as though they didn't awaken the plough drivers at GVA early enough...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'm in the IATA Centre at Geneva Airport and there is snow on the ground outside. Wet snow to be sure but snow nonetheless.
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Bogusman, just looks to me as though many departures a little delayed?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Yes. We are expecting to be joined by some people coming in from Zurich and they have just let us know they have a half hour delay. I doubt if there will be serious delays though unless the snow gets a lot heavier. Hope not anyway because I am due to fly home this evening.
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under a new name, can we post your comment when the Britsh press has its usual attack on our snow condition organisation this winter saying the Europeans always know what they are doing.
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Il fait du dump cet matin Smile

pam w, yes I had that too - some loop it had got into, seems ok gain now.

Both the GFS and ECM seem to hint at a warm spell in early Dec - off in FI as Noza would say - but I guess we're due one after all this froideur
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red 27 wrote:

Both the GFS and ECM seem to hint at a warm spell in early Dec -

No No p-off , dont like that
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chrisb, feel free! Note also that our local garage who stocks our out of season tyres for us for no cost other than the usual change fee changed them 3 weeks ago when it was in for a regular service saying "it could snow anyday now and then there'll be a 3 week delay as they'll all want it done at once".

Note also all the French in particular who didn't have snow tyres on this morning. I'd love to say that'll teach them but it doesn't seem to. It's been forecast for at least a week rolling eyes

red 27, "due one" - why? I didn't think weather was mean reverting?
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We've had 20+ cm here in Chamonix since last night and it's still falling Madeye-Smiley . Haven't been out on the roads in a couple of hours but they were in bad condition then, no idea what hey are like now.
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Snow down to Aime starting to brighten up a bit .....
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under a new name wrote:
red 27, "due one" - why? I didn't think weather was mean reverting?


If it's been hot for a while, we're 'due' a cold snap. If it's been dry for a while we're 'due' rain... The concept is more thoroughly explained in my forthcoming lecture on the matter to the Institute of Chartered Statisticians. Smile
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