phillip33, I think the snowpack in most alpine resorts will be a bit thicker than it is in your garden
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Just on the snow front - as waynos says, the ground temperature under the snow generally remains just about freezing throughout the winter. The air temperature at the top of the snowpack can, of course, vary from anywhere between -30° to +10°C (or even crazier temperatures).
When you have an extremely cold temperature at the snow surface, then the temperature will be changing as you move up through the snowpack. This is known as a temperature gradient. Too sharp a gradient (generally more than 1°C change per 10cm of snow) leads to the formation of hoar crystals within the snowpack (known as depth hoar). These are weak layers in the snowpack and increase the avalanche risk.
This was the problem for much of last season - a shallow snowpack, combined with cold temperatures throughout most of January and February, made for a strong temperature gradient and huge amounts of depth hoar.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
andy from embsay it's the strength and position of the high pressure in the Atlantic which is determining how far east any northerly is driven.
So what everyone is saying is that despite there being high levels of snow, it could melt quickly if we have a heatwave, bug , still I like worrying looking at snow forecasts it's all part of the holiday experience for me
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
andy from embsay it's the strength and position of the high pressure in the Atlantic which is determining how far east any northerly is driven.
Incidentally, I wonder if the word you are looking for in your final paragraph is ensembles?
I think ensembles is the word, yep!
As we'll be in the PdS next week we're hoping for the odd freshen-things-up flurry without any lift-shutting deluges, which given your explanation we may well get by the look of that high out west.
Still a tad chilly though (mind you it was pretty brassic cycling through London at 7am today - can't imagine anywhere being colder than that...).
So what everyone is saying is that despite there being high levels of snow, it could melt quickly if we have a heatwave, bug , still I like worrying looking at snow forecasts it's all part of the holiday experience for me
What people are saying is that some snow might or might not melt, depending on some events that are in the future.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
phillip33 wrote:
So what everyone is saying is that despite there being high levels of snow, it could melt quickly if we have a heatwave, bug , still I like worrying looking at snow forecasts it's all part of the holiday experience for me
I think people thought they were answering a question about temperature at different parts of the snowpack, but I think you were asking about whether there will still be snow at Easter? To which the answer is as paulio suggests, probably, but it depends.
After all it is free
After all it is free
What's your thoughts on the recent maps, Noza? The high pressure area seems to be gaining a bit of influence, particularly on the 12h run on GFS for Tuesday/Wednesday next week - there seems to be a ridge extending over Switzerland. Is that strong enough to hold off the northerlies?
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This evening's output so far has tended to increase the strength of Atlantic high pressure west of the UK
It's also nudging it further east and in doing so edging the potential northerly blast for the Alps further east. The GFS operational run was pretty unenthusiastic about anything serious or snowy from the north this evening, however looking at the ensemble spread you can see that whilst a number of runs went with the operational's weak offering, about the same number went for a colder snowier option with the control. So a fair amount of uncertainty even at this range and at four days out it could still swing back and forth, so worth keeping an eye on it.
Here's how WRF sees it at present for Valentine's day evening.
"On Sunday it will be predominantly sunny in the Swiss Alps. During the course of the day on Monday, clouds will move in from the north. It will be cold on both days, accompanied by moderate to strong velocity northeasterly winds."
Depending how it plays out on Tuesday (ie whether the northerly does push in) strong winds could be an issue.
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This morning's output tends to reinforce the suggestion that the snowier weather in the middle of next week is likely to be focussed on the central and eastern end of the northern Alps. And at the same time the models have edged away from some of the very high snowfalls and wind speeds which were cropping up a few days ago, but it will feel wintry none the less and I'd suggest maybe 10 - 30+ cms of snow midweek at the eastern end of the Alps, .
There is still quite a split in the ensembles from 15 February, but the general pattern from Tuesday is for a switch from a north eastern pattern (farewell Hoch "Dieter") to a north western pattern. As well as bringing snow to the eastern Alps midweek this now looks like introducing milder temperatures which might even see temperatures in the Alps slightly above average by next weekend.
Looking into FI there been a relatively frequent suggestion of further snowy weather and colder temperatures pushing in from the north west around 20/21 February.
But, it's still too far away to have any great deal of confidence in, but worth keeping an eye on.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Any news on the northerlys hitting the uk mid next week???
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
kitenski, as I mentioned above progressive runs have been strengthening the high pressure to the west of the UK and nudging it east. This has had the net effect of forcing the track of the northerly push further east as it comes over the top of the high pressure in the Atlantic.
So whilst a few days ago it looked like northerlies would push down close to the UK or even across it, it now looks far more likely they will be several hundred miles further east.
So much less chance of cold in the UK for the middle of next week (except possibly in the east), indeed the high pressure may instead feed in milder temperatures and a stronger likelihood that snow in the Alps will be at the eastern end. It may yet be that by midweek this has been nudged off the board (or it could, though less likely, swing back west).
Further out 20/21 looks like offering a further northern option for the Alps (at least according to GFS).
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The broad pattern remains the same this morning. Temperatures gradually rising through the week, dipping as cold air pulls in from the north after midweek before pushing to around average perhaps a little above by next weekend.
Potential snowfall midweek looks focussed on the eastern Alps, Austrian Alps look like they might seem 40-50cms Wednesday and Friday, but at present much less in the south and west. Midweek could also see some pretty strong winds picking up as well.
Next week continues to offer options for another push from the north/north west, which could see further snow across the Alps and colder temperatures from a week on Monday.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Here's a snippet from this evening's SLF update for Switzerland.
On Tuesday, skies will be overcast, amidst bright intervals particularly in the Valais and in Grisons. In northern regions, a small amount of snowfall is anticipated. In southern regions it will be partly sunny. On Wednesday, snowfall is expected down to low lying areas, accompanied by strong to storm strength northwesterly winds. Only in the furthermost southern regions will it be sunny."
Quite a storm heading towards parts of Austria for midweek and backing west into Switzerland. The Arlberg in particular looks like seeing significant snow (50cm+) and strong winds. That's not on the scale of sone of the earlier winter storms, but it would I imagine lead to quite a few lift closures. And sone great snow, amongst increased avalanche risk.
Temperatures will be moving towards seasonal average, if not a little above by the weekend (keep in mind that on average temperatures for the Alps in February are still cold). Beyond 21 February some potential for further colder than average weather, though not the brutal easterlies of late and certainly at that range no real confidence.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Here is an extract from the SLF update this evening.
Very strong winds from the northwest will bring snow, in particular between midday on Wednesday and midday on Thursday in the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps. Large quantities will fall in some places. Temperatures will remain low on Wednesday, but rise a little on Thursday. The avalanche danger will increase significantly over a wide area." [SLF]
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The 2011/12 season in the Alps has so far seen a series of patterns come and go.
Pattern One
- Mid November had a powerful high pressure block over Eastern Europe.
Drawing deep bitter cold in from the east, but also allowing snowfall to favor the Southern Alps and Pyrenees for a change.
Pattern Four?
With two weeks of winter left we're now seeing a further shift. To a pattern which looks closer to the December 2011 pattern (though less powerful). Which would see milder or closer to average temperatures, but increased precipitation in the northern Alps.
- heavy snow to parts of the central and eastern Alps Wednesday into Thursday.
- further lighter snow into Austria on Friday.
- then more snow across the northern Alps on Sunday evening.
- and possibly heavier snow on Tuesday 21 February.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, great summary of winter so far and a like the look of the closing blast of winter, lets hope spring continues with a similar NW pattern.
some weather quotes for around Schladming way (the northern sector of the Austrian bit of the Eastern Alps)
from the often understated hauser kaibling website weather forecast for Wednesday
"Snowfall, northwest wind density clouds and the afternoon it is snowing hard. Stormy northwest wind is blowing."
and from the Stria avi report
"During the night we reached a frontal system, the wind is rough. Morning it is snowing reached in the northern Alps and the Tauern all day, the wind on the mountains hurricane strength. Similarly, the wintry weather also presented on Thursday."
Here are some ensembles. Currently these show the 00z GFS run. FI is especially volatile at present. Last night 18zs showed a return of easterlies and very cold temperatures. This morning has switched to a much milder end to the month. At present the pattern is uncertainty further out.
Closer in, the central and eastern Alps will see snowy and stormy weather pulling in between now and Thursday. Light snow following on in Austria in Tirol and east on Friday. Followed by some milder temperatures over the weekend and and possibly further snow on Sunday evening. Conversely Scotland's mountains look like they might see a cold and snowy blast over the weekend.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Incidentally, (and picking up from a post in the Arlberg thread) here's a good photo (from the Lawinenwarndienst Tirol blog) illustrating the potential off piste hazard that glide cracks could present should you inadvertently ski over the edge!
C-c-c-c-cold here in Chamonix still, with clear skies feeling like they will never end today.
Noza-san, given that the AO is heading back into the positives, do you think this will have an added impact on the upcoming events?
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Dread Pirate Roberts, the AO and NAO simply provide a way to illustrate relative pressure conditions. As such they don't drive the weather themselves. Nevertheless a +AO (or the conditions that lead to a +AO) tends to favor milder weather and storms on a more northerly track, whereas -AO tends to favor colder weather and storms on a more southerly track.
- ZAMG predicting 30-70cm of fresh snow , stormy northwesterlies gusting up to 120km/h.
- "Schnee nach langer Kälteperiode" statistically snow after a long cold period causes the most deadly avalanches.
Over the weekend temperatures look like rising above average in many places (though potentially still rather cold on Friday and Saturday first thing). Given how cold is has been for the last fortnight that could be quite a change.
Monday though sees another northern blast with temperatures tumbling between 10-15C. 19/20 February looks like bringing more snow particularly in the eastern and southern Alps.
By the middle of next week it looks from GFS like high pressure will be building across Europe with further milder and possibly sunny weather taking control (though the end of the week may see a different picture, will be interesting to look at the 23/24 Feb on this evening's 12zs).
Here incidentally are some interesting graphical comparisons of the recent cold temperatures from ZAMG (so focussed on Austria).
"Issued at - 15 Feb 2012, 10:04
Valid from - 18 Feb 2012, 00:05
Valid to - 18 Feb 2012, 21:00
Sleet and snow showers will become frequent and heavy at times over the Northwest Highlands during Saturday with significant accumulations away from the west Coast. In addition, gale force winds will result in temporary blizzard conditions over higher ground. The public should be aware that this is likely to cause disruption."
Up to level 4, 30cms fresh today with another 50cm between now and midday tomorrow.
That will make for some decent powder tomorrow - though of course in safer areas.
Hochwurzen mountain, one of schaldming hills - 150km/h wind gust!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A number of Austrian resorts cut off this evening.
"The Arlbergpass and the Flexenpass are closed! The road Lech-Warth is closed. Arrival and Departure not possible. More information thursday at 8 am." [www.lech-zuers.at]
Obertauern and St Gallenkirch cut off too apparently.
Accumulated snowfall (not snow depth) in the Arlberg so far this winter has now apparently reached 8m (according to Osterreich).
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snow fading east through Austria during the day.
But further light snow returning to Austria tomorrow, primarily east of Innsbruck.
But that's being going up and down of late so not too sure about it. As has a further brush with snow on or around 23 February.
Temperatures will be much milder than of late, slightly above average for the time of year as we go into this weekend, before dropping sharply at the start of next week and then building again towards next weekend. Looking at far FI there have been a few suggestions for a colder end to the month.
Bergfex incidentally has had a bit of an update. Adding French resorts a few weeks ago and now adding a few extra days range which are helpfully greyed out to emphasise the uncertainty. Of the commercial forecasts out there I quite like it.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Thank you so much for your continued regular updates on the snow forecasts.
Am off for the family trip to Serre Chevalier on the 11 March. Are there any prospects of more snow for the Southern Alps in the foreseeable future? Believe I am right in saying that there may be some around the 19 / 20th February - is this still on the cards?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Griggs, this morning's output (see the WRF above) seems to have narrowed the areas of potential snowfall for 19/20 February. The southern French Alps look like they will fall outside of the footprint as currently forecast (that could of course change). Given there's still nearly a month before you head out there's plenty of potential for further snow though.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Any news for the other side of the pond..... of to whistler in 4 weeks and starting to think about the weather and snow
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen, Another afternoon avi report update on http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=lage The wetter forecast from the report suggest another 20-40cm of snow is coming tonight until Sat? This doesn't seem to fit in with any other forecast I've looked at? Avi risk staying at 4 for next 2 days.
"Die kurze Wetterberuhigung hat pünktlich eingesetzt. In der ersten Nachthälfte gibt es nur wenig Niederschlag. Nach Mitternacht trifft dann die Warmfront ein und es beginnt wieder zu schneien. Bis Samstag am Vormittag sind zwischen 20 – 40 cm Neuschnee möglich."
Any thoughts?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
waynos, the avalanche risk is a combination of a number of factors. If it does snow as they suggest then certainly keeping level 4 sounds possible. 20-40 cms over two days is a bit tricky to judge. 10cm overnight then 10cm tomorrow night doesn't sound completely crazy, 40cm seems quite strong. It does look like Styria will get further snow tomorrow morning. I'd have thought 10-20cms sounds more likely and a move down to 3. Guess we'll see. Either way hope you're having fun time in Schladming this season!
nozawaonsen, having a great time thanks! Was out skiing today in the powder and saw plenty of small slides and cracks in the new snow, mainly on banks and con-vexed areas. Just read this live news ticker on the snow chaos http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Lawinen-Angst-laehmt-Oesterreich/56457498#textBegin another avi victim in styria today, that's 2 I've read of and numerous slides particularly in Ischgl.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Some milder weather coming this weekend, before a further cold blast from the north. Some snow pushing down, the Arlberg looks like it will see some further snowfall early Sunday.
By the end of next week high pressure looks like becoming established across western Europe. This looks like pushing any northerly incursions far off to the east. And introducing some warmer temperatures across the Alps.
Noza, when you say "warmer" by the end of next week ... just how much so are we looking at? Warmer in relation to what has just been, or warmer as in the freezing levels shoot through the roof!
Heading out to La Rosiere on the 25th so its getting to that time where the forecasts are starting to firm themselves up a little - would be useful to know whether I'll need to pack the suncream or the thermals!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
papillion_rouge, at present a little above average. So certainly warm by comparison to recent temperatures, but not very warm. The period from the end of next week is currently quite interesting as if high pressure pushes in from the west and establishes itself (like in the 00z GFS), you end up quite mild and dry. If however, the high pressure doesn't push so far across (as in the 06z GFS) then there's a chance for colder and snowier weather to push down (though probably more so further east).
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, what does FI look like going into March for the Val D'Isere area and also Scotland going into that period. Been so busy at work the past couple of weeks I've not had a chance to keep up with this or any other thread ... well, apart from Steve's Val D'isere thread.
Like the old movies and that pic of the glide crack is scary!
Ski safe everyone.
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Well i'm hoping the weather will continue on the 06z GFS forecast as today it was very mild in the Jungfrau Region !
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Quote:
Heading out to La Rosiere on the 25th so its getting to that time where the forecasts are starting to firm themselves up a little - would be useful to know whether I'll need to pack the suncream or the thermals!
If you are going there make sure you take both, it changes around a lot (due to being in the middle of two valleys allegedly). Two years ago I suffered the two coldest days of my life in La Ros on the worlds slowest lifts and then had 4 days of T-shirt weather. It was so cold that the wind hunted out every minuscule gap in your clothing and pushed through it like an ice dagger, no matter how hard you tried to cover up it would find another tiny gap between your goggle and helmet. The wives were crying on one of the chair lifts as it was going so slow. then the next days absolutely gorgeous. Good place, you will enjoy it.
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