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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
GFS 0z and ECM 0z differ in their evolution again, leaving me with egg on my face...!

The GFS continues in the same pattern as yesterdays 06z, 12z and 18z runs and builds high pressure over France and the UK. This then ridges north and east and connects allowing cold air to eventually flood in from the east. Quite wet - Austria and Switzerland do very well.

ECM is quite tasty...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Potentially interesting changes to the pattern for half term appear to be establishing themselves at present as philmes flagged up. But to me some important details are still unclear and confidence is low (given that it was looking so different this time yesterday).

The net impact is that for much of the Alps, Switzerland, Austria and eastern Italy the half term week is looking milder [compared to how it looked this time yesterday] and potentially very snowy above about 1600m-1900m+ (1300m-1600m+ further east). Southern parts of the French Alps looks like they may miss out at present on further snowfall [more so on GFS than ECM], although there looks like there could be a band around Sunday (then again they look like being the main beneficiaries of this weeks snow). The main snow (rain at lower levels) though would be from midweek and would (if the detail verifies) be one of the larger snowfalls this year (with all that would mean for snowpack stability).

The main reason for this is that low pressure would be pouring over the top of a high pressure sitting over Western Europe.

Here is a good shot of this on ECM, which has a similar though better pattern to GFS [with the high pressure a little further west], and takes it cooler slightly quicker.



What will of course be interesting to watch will be temperatures. If they could come down a little further that would certainly be good and rising further would be a pain. Also much of the very high precipitation is modeled in low res and it will probably come down a bit as it enters hi res.

Here is Chamonix.



I would repeat that for me at least this is all still very low confidence and the detail in particular quantities and the snow line could all change a lot.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Where's the snow in France?

Well it looks to me like much of it may be coming in slightly further to the south and east...

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valdisere .com predicts 20 t0 25 cm,s on the border,so with graph above that stacks up what with val being on the italian border,happened last time when Fornet got hit, whats the chance of this low shifting a bit further north today ,or is it to late now
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phillip33, no I think Val D'Isere should get some and eventually quite a bit of the French Alps too.

It looks like the further east you are in the Savoie the better you will do, not too clear from that chart how well the Tarentaise will do, though you can see the snow snaking down the mountain ranges in the French Alps.

Frustrating that the whole system is tracking a little further east. Southern French Alps, Milky Way, Andermatt look like they could do well.
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Morning ll. ive just logged onto the look at the web cams for Val Thorens and there showing that its snowing as we speak.... How much ive no idea... Its snowing so who cares..... Get it! snowHead
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nozawaonsen, southern alps are doing well just checked isola, thanks for giving hope, i cant wait till my florida holiday sun only no precipitation wanted or usually had !!! just a couple of cm,s is enough just to make it look pretty,thats what my wife said !!
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Here you go - latest radar and chart for tomorrow looking interesting http://www.seaspritesports.com/weather24.php#map - just heard from my mate in Alagna - Light snow, not dumping"



Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Tue 15-02-11 9:49; edited 1 time in total
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Nothing to speak of here in Morzine, just a little damp underfoot
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zzz wrote:
Nothing to speak of here in Morzine, just a little damp underfoot


Morzine is too low Sad
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A couple more animated sites.

Meteo

Meteo Group
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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a direct miss

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=holiday&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur


unless the wind changes and blows it our way
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Currently looks that way. Something at the weekend maybe?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
philmes, rolling eyes rolling eyes
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not looking like hitting the 3 valleys, tignes area...

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=388&y=411
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like precipitation over the next few days is going leave a few people in France disappointed. Just goes to show how hard it is to forecast when the setup is marginal.

GFS 06z is rolling out now and shows a front moving across France on Saturday. This could deliver a small amount (<5cm) of snow to the 3V/ValD region and into parts Switzerland and Italy.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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philmes, sorry lost the faith, but still going on hols there,s snow,and to be fair these ruddy charts.................. until yesterday all was looking good then ....... even armed with all the info its very hard to predict as is bourne out on this thread!!! what will fall will fall,i,m going to take the advice of a few which has been said before, and go and enjoy, beats work

have fun
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
For what it's worth I think you are writing things off a little early in regards to the next 48 hours. We'll see.
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The problem with the precipitation during the early part of this week was that the margins for miss or hit were very fine - a few hundred kilometres either way.

On the basis of the 06z run, Austria looks like the best place to be for new snow. Difficult to be enthusiastic though, and I don't see much chance of desperately needed real dumping in French alps for the foreseeable future.
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Quote:

Austria looks like the best place to be for new snow



Depending on the height of the resort???
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philmes wrote:
I don't see much chance of desperately needed real dumping in French alps for the foreseeable future.


aghhh our snowheads chalet pimps won't be happy with you saying that.
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this looks promising does it not?

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Mattmulkeen wrote:
Quote:

Austria looks like the best place to be for new snow




Depending on the height of the resort???

Keep the faith matey ..........or d'ya think we going too low?
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Quote:

our snowheads chalet pimps won't be happy with you saying that.

Well if the chalet pimps prefer PR spiel to honest weather forecasting, they shouldn't read this thread!

Fascinating to watch this great swirling chaotic uncertainty. Imagine if we were poor African farmers, wondering whether the next rain shower is going to hit or miss our mealie patch!
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What are the chances of the Monterosa area getitng a decent snowfall over the next few days?
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Crispyapplepie, I can't see the snow on the webcam. Which one are you looking at? I hope its one i dont usually study as I can add it to my list for sneeky desk based longing sessions. Only a few more days untill I get to see it in the flesh... snowHead
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Quote:

Keep the faith matey ..........or d'ya think we going too low?



http://www.play.com/Gadgets/Gadgets/4-/8229747/Umbrella-Hat/Product.html?_$ja=tsid:11518|cat:8229747|prd:8229747


Laughing

Seriously, you never with the mountains - on a couple of recent trips to serre che - the forecast was rain from mid mountain all the way through to Snowangel's live updates of...... its snowing - dont like being on this much of a tight rope mind!
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Been snowing hard all morning in St Sorlin D'Arves.


http://pv.viewsurf.com/?id=58
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
davidof wrote:
philmes wrote:
I don't see much chance of desperately needed real dumping in French alps for the foreseeable future.


aghhh our snowheads chalet pimps won't be happy with you saying that.


To be honest the 'chalet pimps' in France probably have the least to worry about - it's the start of the month-long school holidays so chalets will be fully booked for the forseeable future. Concern is more for the people who have booked their once-a-year ski trip... honest predictions are obviously best because you don't want people to turn up and be disappointed... though neither do you want them to be unnecessarily disheartened.

What started as rainy drizzle and then sleet is now proper snow at village level (1100m) in this part of the Aravis. Won't settle off piste, but should hopefully give the pistes a bit of a refresh.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Light snow with heavier snow showers in Valloire and Valmienier, down to valley level (1430m). Looks like it might be "on" for some time.....
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 Poster: A snowHead
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miranda wrote:
honest predictions are obviously best because you don't want people to turn up and be disappointed... .


Well honestly, if they are skiing in resort they can't complain about the excellent work that ski resorts have done this season. Generally it has been pretty skiable from 1300m and the sunshine is no bad thing really.

> Imagine if we were poor African farmers, wondering whether the next rain shower is going to hit or miss our mealie patch!

It is more like you've carefully irrigated your patch and through good husbandry managed to push a nice crop of coffee against the odds, then no-one turns up to buy leaving you with a stack of coffee beans.
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Quote:

Imagine if we were poor African farmers, wondering whether the next rain shower is going to hit or miss our mealie patch!

Absolutely. Puts it in perspective.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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miranda wrote:
now proper snow at village level (1100m) in this part of the Aravis. Won't settle off piste, but should hopefully give the pistes a bit of a refresh.


Just wondering why it won't settle off piste??? Puzzled
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kitenski wrote:
miranda wrote:
now proper snow at village level (1100m) in this part of the Aravis. Won't settle off piste, but should hopefully give the pistes a bit of a refresh.


Just wondering why it won't settle off piste??? Puzzled


Ground too warm I expect?
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kitenski wrote:
miranda wrote:
now proper snow at village level (1100m) in this part of the Aravis. Won't settle off piste, but should hopefully give the pistes a bit of a refresh.


Just wondering why it won't settle off piste??? Puzzled
Because some places have nothing but bare ground off piste! on a brighter note, heavy sno here now!
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stevomcd,

will it make its way to Valdisere,please send it my way too,ive got a bottle of Cham in fridge waiting to be drunk
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philmes wrote:


Ground too warm I expect?


is exactly what I was assuming and by 'off piste' I actually meant 'off the slopes' i.e. on bare ground and roads in the village. But trees and roofs and grass have all turned white now at the lowest levels - it's actually turned out to be more significant than I expected...
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stevomcd, excellent! Have been eagerly checking the webcam today!
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Bergfex says 20-30cm of snow right down to 700m this weekend. Get in! Very Happy
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miranda, ah cheers, bare warm ground I understand Smile
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