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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sunday great. Monday... pissing down in Les Menuires all last night. Looks like it's rain and wind for the next couple of days. Any sign of chill?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@mutineer, lots of snow forecast for tomorrow
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@franga, definitely not an outlier. Though currently looks shortlived before temperatures go below average again. A bit of uncertainty about whether that’s going to be accompanied by another band of snow/rain at this stage.

All very zonal at present with alternating cold and warm (generally pretty warm in the current set up). No indication of any prolonged settled weather in the reliable outlook for now.

@mutineer, Yes. Have a read of the last page or two.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@franga, definitely not an outlier. Though currently looks shortlived before temperatures go below average again. A bit of uncertainty about whether that’s going to be accompanied by another band of snow/rain at this stage.

All very zonal at present with alternating cold and warm (generally pretty warm in the current set up). No indication of any prolonged settled weather in the reliable outlook for now.

@mutineer, Yes. Have a read of the last page or two.


Thanks.

Looks like a good HT week for mileage-hungry piste skiers and boarders like myself.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@franga, definitely not an outlier. Though currently looks shortlived before temperatures go below average again.


I don't really see any below average temps on the model charts. Even the longer-range charts that shift the upper-level flow northerly are tapping into -6°C air at 850mb. That's a maritime airmass, not the -15°C or so that you would typically see with arctic air. The zonal flow connected to the strongly positive AO seems to be the culprit, and there are currently no clear signs of that breaking down.

It looks periodically cold enough for snow at elevation, but not exactly seasonably cold.
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@altaski8, I can see both ensemble averages and Op runs going below average occasionally in the next 10 days
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
leggyblonde wrote:
@altaski8, I can see both ensemble averages and Op runs going below average occasionally in the next 10 days


I can imagine the scenario in my mind too. But I don't see it in the current forecast charts. Maybe briefly slightly below average - depending on location - but otherwise near or above average. Wednesday could end up being the coldest day for a while. And even on this "cold day," the freezing level is forecast to reach 1000m in the northern Alps.
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Story of the season:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2019_merra2.pdf
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Looks like we might be in for a spot of rain Sunday in the Alps (according to snow-forecast), does anyones have a view of next week hoping rain turns to snow Monday onwards?
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@James77, the runes are suggesting precipitation on Sunday (snow higher up maybe rain lower down) and then drier and fairly mild weather. Little bit far away to be sure. Probably nice skiing weather certainly for lunch on a terrace.
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Warth acing it again. 165.8kmh gust on Saloberkopf so far todays’s high in Vorarlberg.

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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
19.4C at Grenoble (Versoud) airport at 14h, that must be close to a record for February
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Rain most every week in the Alps for 2 months, this season.

Tomorrow is the peak of coldest winter...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Whitegold wrote:
Rain most every week in the Alps for 2 months, this season.

Tomorrow is the peak of coldest winter...


No rain in the Dolomites since November. Hardly any snow either but definately no rain that I can remember!!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Just started Snowing on the 'Beacon Hill Massif' (near Loughborough). Toofy Grin


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Tue 11-02-20 1:00; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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cc_7up wrote:
Just started Snowing on Loughborough's Beacon Hill. Toofy Grin


Yep yellow warning for snow now out for North Midlands across to Norfolk!!
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@Whitegold, your back! So. Cool.

Now tell us all. Because we have been waiting! How is the Belgian ski season going?

It’s so cool you’ve found your thing at last. For years it’s been like you’ve been this lost troll/glove puppet eking out your life from thread to forum, flailing, failing and faking it, desperately seeking some any form of validation...

But look here you are! A new spring in your step. A razzle in your dazzle and no need to just go around spreading gloom, doom and trying to wind other people up! (I mean I know your not the only one in this thread doing it, but hey...) Your the Belgian boy, the big news from Brussels and the wonder from Walloon! So tell us all. We. Are. Agog.
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Snowing hard here in Melton Mowbray.

Can't quite work out yet how that's going to affect my next trip next week, but it looks good regardless snowHead
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@porkpiefox, is there likely to be a pie shortage Puzzled
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twoodwar wrote:
@porkpiefox, is there likely to be a pie shortage Puzzled


Panic not, even the 2018 Beast from the East couldn't stop the PP production.
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@nozawaonsen, could even be 25cm, though today's run is not quite so optimistic.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Kind of a pessimistic update from wepowder today. Concerns from last Wednesday were well warranted...

altaski8 wrote:
Some potential red flags for next week (please do not interpret this as gloom and doom):
-The mean jet position continues to be forecast in a zonal orientation, relatively far north
-The fronts impacting the Alps look relatively weak and weakening as they approach
-It looks warm overall with frequent temperature oscillations (avalanche and off-piste concerns)
-The fronts look to be accompanied by strong winds
-The southern Alps appear to be mostly left out for the foreseeable future (although the 06z GFS almost got there)

Feb 11/12 right now looks like the best shot at a good storm according to inter- and intra-model consensus. But that's pretty low confidence. The upcoming period has the potential to deliver some snow to the hills of central Germany, Belgium, and the UK (the extra latitude helps).
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@altaski8, just as you said the word pessimistic, Bergfex just popped some snow on the horizon for Mon/Tues next week in La Plagne.
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@Handy Turnip, Every app always seems to have snow 6/7 days out and it seldom comes to much - the rain this year has been the worst I can remember - this week looks like a shocker in the Tarrantaise and next week doesn't seem much better - I suspect, if it comes to pass, that this will be a kick in the teeth for the ski industry going forward.
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Here in Gressoney (Staffal), only one lift running because of high winds. But that's one more than expected. Skied the same one run over and over today, but had fun nonetheless. Maybe a couple of cm of new snow, but drizzle lower down. Snow texture OK for skiing, though.
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@J2R, glad your making the most of it! Should be getting sinnier (even sunnier) from tomorrow and winds (slowly) dropping.

Alternatively you could be like a few others on here sitting at home telling everyone on the internet how gloomy you are!
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@Charliee, yes very much aware that anything over a few days away is firmly in the realms of FI.

More of comment that if a forecast goes from showing nothing to something then that generally gives me a ray of hope!

PS.. not sure which apps you're using but I've ditched the ones that do that!
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nozawaonsen wrote:

Alternatively you could be like a few others on here sitting at home telling everyone on the internet how gloomy you are!


+1
is it me or does there seem to be more doom-mongers on here than in previous years!!!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Can we ban the words gloom, doom, and all variations?! This is a weather thread. Sometimes the forecast looks positive and other times, negative. And we should be able to openly and factually discuss it. We shouldn't have to sugarcoat it to protect a few overly sensitive posters.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Handy Turnip, yeah I think so. But it’s also not been an amazing season so maybe that’s inevitable. Still...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Here’s SLF’s round up for Switzerland.

” Observed weather on Monday, 10.02.2020

Precipitation fell in the west and north. As the day progressed the snowfall level fell from 2200 m to 1800 m. The south and east were mostly dry and there were isolated bright spells.

Fresh snow

In the period from Sunday evening until Monday afternoon the following amounts of snow fell above approximately 2500 m:

Extreme west of Lower Valais: 15 to 30 cm

Northern Valais: 5 to 15 cm

Elsewhere: smaller amounts or none

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: between +1 °C in the north and -1 °C in the south

Wind

In the north: storm force from the west
In the south: mostly moderate, veering from southerly to northerly during the day

Weather forecast through Tuesday, 11.02.2020

It will be mostly very cloudy and snow will fall above approximately 1000 m; the snowfall will be persistent in the west and north. In the south there will be only a little precipitation and it will become increasingly sunny during the day.

Fresh snow

From Monday afternoon until Tuesday afternoon above approximately 1400 m:

Extreme west of Lower Valais, northern Alpine ridge: 25 to 40 cm, but up to 60 cm in the far west

Jura, Prealps, rest of Valais, northern Prättigau, Silvretta, Samnaun: 15 to 25 cm

Rest of northern and central Grisons: 5 to 15 cm; smaller amounts or remaining dry elsewhere

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: between -7 °C in the north and -5 °C in the south

Wind

Storm force from the west

Outlook through Thursday, 13.02.2020

Wednesday

The snowfall will ease from the west on Tuesday night. During the day a little more snow will fall in the east in particular; elsewhere, it will be partly sunny in the north and quite sunny in the south. The snowfall level will be at low altitude. The wind will be moderate to strong from the west to northwest.
The avalanche danger will decrease only slowly. For snow sport participants venturing off piste the situation will remain critical over a wide area.

Thursday

In the morning, quite sunny weather will persist at first. During the day, precipitation will arrive from the west. The snowfall level will be between 1000 and 1400 m. The southwesterly wind will become increasingly strong. The avalanche danger will decrease slowly for the time being.”
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Here’s some ensembles.



For now at least temperatures heading briefly below average before again briefly well above average and then briefly below average... (the average is about -3/-4).

Chamonix



Arlberg

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Handy Turnip wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:

Alternatively you could be like a few others on here sitting at home telling everyone on the internet how gloomy you are!


+1
is it me or does there seem to be more doom-mongers on here than in previous years!!!


You'd have to go back and count. we all have had our disagreements in the past and when the snow is maybe not the best people get tetchy. If people only want good news best to stick to snowforecast or weepowder
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@davidof, just saying that it feels like we've had more of it this year. Been plenty of times in the past when the snow has not been the best.

Not after just good news at all, but I'd argue that others are doing their best to find the negative in everything. A bit of balance is always good.

As my post started "is it me...?" - maybe the simple answer yes it is.
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Time and again this season strong westerly winds have closed lifts in the north and west. The south and east has been persistently sheltered, albeit it has also missed out on new snow too.

Tomorrow looks like a repeat Puzzled
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@Peter S, yeah very much in line with the strong jet at present. Obviously when that’s pushing in from the west the south east of the Alps is sheltered, but also misses out on snow. Consistent with the pattern reflected in a +NAO.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


For now at least temperatures heading briefly below average before again briefly well above average and then briefly below average... (the average is about -3/-4).


That's Noza-speak for 12 hours slightly below average and 12 days way above average.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 10-02-20 21:51; edited 1 time in total
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Midweek will see about 30cm at most in the French Northern Alps but more generally 15cm. Rain to high altitudes in the Pyrenees and not much for the Southern Alps. Above 1500 m the skiing is good but largely due to snow making on the lower runs. It was a bit rock and roll on Sunday below 2000 m off piste but the rocks were largely avoidable. This weekend looks warm again; it is really a sawtooth season - a bit of snow then either / or / and rain, warm, wind which hits the snowpack. At mid to low altitudes the snowpack has never really established itself and as we head into spring it will probably be early doors for some resorts. This slope is typical at 1300 meters



Le Semnoz closed today after the rain hit the slopes and resorts in the Pyrenees don't look great.

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nozawaonsen wrote:


(the average is about -3/-4).



Wow, is that right? That seems relatively warm for 1600m - 1800m in the northern Alps in the first half of February.
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@altaski8, the long term average for 850hPa (the charts I was referring to) at this time of year is -3/-4.



More like -1/-2 further west.

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