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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Here's a gif I made last year of a Genoa Low.

Hits the Corsican mountains and is deflected north.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Can we have one please?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:
You chumps need to stop bickering and whining.

Snow is coming.

The East this week. The West next week.


😂😂😂
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
@trevski, my point is a simple one: Regardless of ones knowledge or lack of there will never be justification for for being rude or sarcastic to someone less knowledgeable . Id dare say that if we are all in a room chatting there would not be any. Its easy to hide behind your desks etc where you are able to do this. If we can not be polite and answer with class as opposed to sarcasm and rudeness then dont. Sarcasm and rudeness are not clever, they show a distinct lack of standards and breeding. Experts on here who share their knowledge which I am most grateful for BUT THERE IS NO NEED do so in a way which is impolite JUST because they have more understanding, as that person may well be far more intelligent in other fields. Instead why is it too much to ask for a warm helpful reply.? If people want to hang on to forecasts in 2 weeks let them its their right, even though a long term forecast has accuracy flaws. I do as I enjoy it its part of the fun build up to a ski trip for me....?? But there is nothing wrong with that !! Very Happy
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@harrymac, You have not got a clue what you're talking about. But do you have a sense of humour?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
What level of snowfall is required to seriously alter the number of open pistes? and how quickly after the snowfall is it likely that they would be opened?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@snowheads68 and @jimmybog, thanks very much for the link and gif - interesting stuff.

I'm used to looking at the pressure charts for sailing on the South coast in the summer - very different focus at the moment!
snow conditions
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@jamz0770, how long is a piece of string?

Depends on existing conditions, underlying stuff - jaggy rocks or smooth grass, etc.

Really not an answerable question as a generality.
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
under a new name wrote:
@jamz0770, how long is a piece of string?

Depends on existing conditions, underlying stuff - jaggy rocks or smooth grass, etc.

Really not an answerable question as a generality.


Fair enough, makes sense, thanks for the response anyway.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@trevski, +1. And the wish of some people to "just have a bit of fun" is at odds with that of others (including me) to profit from the insight and guidance of those who take an informed interest and are prepared to take the time to share and explain. If everybody's "opinion" is given equal weight and value that's lost. Sure, everyone should be polite but sometimes folk need to be told they're talking b011ocks.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Quote:

harrymac
user
Posts: 119

@mheadbee, Your a prime example The one thing that does seem to get up the noses of the experts on here is calling the charts "wigglies" as we are not at school anymore and when people ask for a forecast for four weeks time. Whenever I read that I cringe and think, wait for it....


My point exactly.......a true sarcastic remark proving my point exactly. I rest my case.



Really????????????

If sounds sarcastic to you then I suggest you are way to sensitive for the internet. I have come across very little in the way of sarcasm or rudeness over the years but if my comment truly proves your point then I would say we live on completely different wavelengths.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@harrymac, well said, been there myself and it's always good to be alive and in the mountains.

Lovely ski in the Menuires sector today, the new snow refreshed the pistes and allowed a bit of powder fun. But it was very cold, around -15c, and we actually saw real tumbleweeds blowing along the piste in the stiff breeze. Despite this, the odd person out without any kind of headgear. Nuts!!!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

pam w
super-snowHead
Posts: 51711
Location: le Beaufortain, France or Chichester Harbour

@trevski, +1. And the wish of some people to "just have a bit of fun" is at odds with that of others (including me) to profit from the insight and guidance of those who take an informed interest and are prepared to take the time to share and explain. If everybody's "opinion" is given equal weight and value that's lost. Sure, everyone should be polite but sometimes folk need to be told they're talking b011ocks



I am with you on this one, I think Bryan Cox the physicist sums it up perfectly.

“The problem with today’s world is that everyone believes they have the right to express their opinion AND have others listen to it.

The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!”
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
jamz0770 wrote:
What level of snowfall is required to seriously alter the number of open pistes? and how quickly after the snowfall is it likely that they would be opened?


With 30cm you'll see 10% more pistes opened
with 50cm you'll see 30% more pistes opened
with 70cm you'll see 70% more pistes opened
with 100cm you'll see 90% more pistes opened

apart from the fact it's low season, so they won't open many of the lifts and pistes until February. Oh and if they get 100cm they'll be closing pistes due to the avalanche risk.

Hope that helps.


Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ghanny wrote:
Who said it was difficult to forecast exact snow depths? That Ski World forecast is showing 83.9cms for La Plagne between 17 and 25 Jan. Not 83cms, not 84 cms but 83.9! Idiots.


I have an algorithm to fix that:

snowForecastCM = roundDownToNearest10(snowForecastCM)
snowForecastCM = snowForecastCM / 2
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
skidm wrote:
Currently snowing in Zurich and there's a carpet of white. On the train to Klosters Very Happy. It bodes well!


I'd be interested to hear what conditions are like - I'm planning a trip this weekend and Klosters is a contender.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
harrymac wrote:
[.... they show a distinct lack of standards and breeding


Could you be more specific? For example, do you mean the quality or the quantity of the breeding? Sounds a bit like the SCGB of old for me.

...unless you are being sarcastic of course.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
It's been snowing well at Snowmass all day. Windhold up top.


@Jellybeans1000 Looks like you timed your trip to perfection. Going to be a lot of snow in Colorado from this storm cycle.
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Snowhead meteorologists, you seem to have been driven away by the thread drift. Please come back Smile .

I have the options on four days in Chamonix, Gressoney, Cervinia or Zermatt starting 13 Jan. I'm looking for steep and deep rolling eyes . What are your thoughts?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Toadman wrote:
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
It's been snowing well at Snowmass all day. Windhold up top.


@Jellybeans1000 Looks like you timed your trip to perfection. Going to be a lot of snow in Colorado from this storm cycle.

5-6" here. Perfect.

Re: All the bickering
IMHO I think everyone has a role to play here. Without the lurkers, there would be no weather thread. Without the experts, there would be no weather thread. I think everyone needs a bit of chill. I know some people have called me out for being too liberal with predictions, but that's the way I was taught to forecast. I base my predictions on a variety of resources, not just GFS. I respect everyone's opinion and occasionally if it's really good, I might just show it to my weather folk back home. Now back to skiing Very Happy .....
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You'll need to Register first of course.
pam w wrote:
It's not the "weather models they follow" it is their software which picks one of several possible outcomes and gives no indication of reliability. Thanks to this thread over many years I have learnt a lot, coupled with looking out the window over 13 seasons.

No problem if folk choose to eschew the uncertainties of chaotic weather systems and choose a simple version but a bit much if, when that proves unreliable, they rail against "forecasters" or even, absurdly, claim that forecasts were better in the olden days.

Now - a spot of empirical data - a level 5" at 1550m outside my apartment. More than I thought, and I must have been asleep when the plough came up our cul de sac. snowHead


I've always felt that looking out the windows is the most accurate way of determining the weather! wink

Still cold here in the PNW. For that you have to open the window to get a sense of the temperature Razz

And for those coming across the pond, California getting pounded, but warming temps equals a bit of a mess I'm afraid. Utah is getting snow, Colorado is going to do well from this storm. I believe there are SH's about in those parts that can provide first hand accounts to current conditions.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Jellybeans1000, We love you really. And we really do appreciate your input.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Chamcham wrote:
Snowhead meteorologists, you seem to have been driven away by the thread drift. Please come back Smile .

I have the options on four days in Chamonix, Gressoney, Cervinia or Zermatt starting 13 Jan. I'm looking for steep and deep rolling eyes . What are your thoughts?

Here's the EC 10 day snow accumulation. I'd say the further north the better. I like Chamonix's chances. North facing slopes will be better.
snow conditions
 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Chamcham wrote:
Snowhead meteorologists, you seem to have been driven away by the thread drift. Please come back Smile .

I have the options on four days in Chamonix, Gressoney, Cervinia or Zermatt starting 13 Jan. I'm looking for steep and deep rolling eyes . What are your thoughts?


Given the current state of the snowpack up high I would be looking at shallow and safe immediately after the next storm cycle which is due to hit around the 10th, to be honest.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Jellybeans1000, thanks. Now let's see how that pans out over the next 10 days... Smile
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@davidof, Yes, of course that's true. Perhaps steepish and deepish, with several caveats?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Closely packed trees with short clearings in between sound good, perhaps Megeve.

But that depends on the weather...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@esaw1, thanks
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Closely packed trees with short clearings in between sound good, perhaps Megeve.


Yep - if the weather is bad but there's fresh to low levels then Mont D'arbois is a good bet. If the cloud isn't down then Les Contamines has plenty of relatively safe terrain.
That said, the best tree skiing I know of in the Alps is Sestriere/Sauze d'Oulx
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Tree skiing with zero base and 20-30cm fresh could be "interesting" to say the least!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@jedster, and that comment is based on how many days skiing the trees there Toofy Grin

For sure they are good but we are blessed with good forest terrain in numerous locations down in this part of the world just depends where you happen to be skiing on the day Cool

Apologies for major thread drift.

And "Kitenski" we do that all the time at the beginning of the season, just take your old skis out and shin guards!


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 5-01-17 17:18; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@pam w, I was wondering when you would begin. Of course you would disagree with my posts.....You are one of the worse offenders on here, always have been with your Acid tongue and ..... Funny but judging by the amount of PMs I have received and the support on here Id say that there are a large number on here who agree, the difference is Il stand up and say.Thanks for the messages of support.BTW id really love to be inn a room with all you keyboard warriors and see how you'd behave face to face.....lambs comes to mind..... NehNeh NehNeh
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@harrymac, I think it would be much more civilised in person.
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
harrymac wrote:
@pam w, I was wondering when you would begin. Of course you would disagree with my posts.....You are one of the worse offenders on here, always have been with your Acid tongue and ..... Funny but judging by the amount of PMs I have received and the support on here Id say that there are a large number on here who agree, the difference is Il stand up and say.Thanks for the messages of support.BTW id really love to be inn a room with all you keyboard warriors and see how you'd behave face to face.....lambs comes to mind..... NehNeh NehNeh


Hope it snows there for you soon, and you can all relax! snowHead
Hope it snows less here soon, as my pile of snow from my drive is now getting so big I'm not sure where I'm going to put this weekends snow (though it can keep snowing up the mountain, as long as there is also a freaky snow dry spot over the sea to sky highway) wink
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Jellybeans1000, 100 % correct. Do you think Aosta valley will benefit from the next series of storms or will it be more northerly please?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
@stuarth, send some over please..!!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Those of you that want to beat your chests at each other PLEASE go and do it somewhere else. This is a really useful and interesting thread which does not need or benefit from your input.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
harrymac wrote:
BTW id really love to be inn a room with all you keyboard warriors and see how you'd behave face to face


If I found myself in a room with you I would tell you to stop spoiling this useful thread with your pathetic posts.
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Oceanic, Pathetic? On what grounds? Just because Im not prepared to tolerate rudeness etc? I think you need to look at yourself as pathetic sums up your post perfectly.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Oceanic wrote:
harrymac wrote:
BTW id really love to be inn a room with all you keyboard warriors and see how you'd behave face to face


If I found myself in a room with you I would tell you to stop spoiling this useful thread with your pathetic posts.


If I found myself in a room with you I would give you a hug...because I feel you need one...🤗


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Thu 5-01-17 17:52; edited 1 time in total
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