The long term forecast for PdS I've been looking at (AccuWeather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/avoriaz/1111608/month/1111608) has it getting positively toasty the week we're there (12-19th). Quite happy with the sunny bit - less so with the thought os sugary snow in the afternoons... Lots of time to go yet though - it was showing it as cloudy with snow showers yesterday! Any idea where accuweather get their forecasts from?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
andy from embsay, it's almost totally pointless to look at those in isolation. You cannot "forecast" what will happen at that range. You might be able to get a sense of the relative probability of various trends (but that's a lot easier on the ensembles). Looking at a pictogram like that is a bit like looking at the far end of the operational ensemble run (it tends to flip back and forth all the time). I wouldn't waste your time to be honest. There's a lot of uncertainty beyond next Tuesday so what it will look like in two weeks time who knows. Incidentally I guess the source is either GFS or CFS.
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I tend to look at the wigglies, Noza, and just look at that 15 day thing for amusement - it's just it's the first forecast that actually has the dates we'll be there on! I think it might be GFS they use as the main GFS line on the wigglies shows it getting a lot warmer - but most of the wiggles and the average line is below long term average.
The thick green line is the operational run. This is the one often used as a source for internet forecasts. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but what is gained in simplicity is lost in accuracy.
Still only a possibility at this stage, but might cold reload?
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Fri 3-02-12 0:09; edited 1 time in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
Where d'you get gfs+216 from? I've not quite sussed out how to get the different maps off meteociel.
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ECM follows the trend of last night's GFS in pulling away from the deep cold in the Alps by mid week (it would still be below average), before returning to much colder temperatures once again by next weekend (though perhaps not quite the depth of this weekend's cold). It also starts to develop blocking over Greenland.
GFS this morning has temperatures closer to average by next weekend, but eventually goes down a similar route to ECM blocking over Greenland and if this played out bringing colder and snowier temperatures to the Alps mid month.
To get beyond 192 GFS on Meteociel click on "suite."
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Noza
As you might expect there will be a lot of UK based families making their way out to the Savoie region of France ( Paradiski, Les 3V , Val D and Tignes ) for the half term holidays . Many will be travelling down by car on Friday 10th Feb and Sat 11th Feb , I know this is just on the verge of FI but can you give any predictions for the weather we are likely to meet on the journey and for the week of 11th to 18th Feb .
Wetterzentrale is suggesting that maybe our journey will be through quite cold air and possibly a bit of moisture ( maybe rain maybe snow ) and then it seems that High pressure takes over and it could be pretty windy and cold for a few days but from Wednesday 15th it looks generally dry for the rest of the week . Ideally I would like a dry drive to the Alps followed by a few cm’s of snow on Friday 10th , just to make the final drive up the mountain on Saturday morning a little bit of an adventure ( you know a few slides that send the wife into panic , chains needed , mad Parisian’s in big 4 x4 with no chains stranded on side of road) followed by a few days of glorious sunshine , with maybe a blizzard one afternoon just to get the blood racing followed again by perfect blue sky powder days .
Any chances of my dreams being fulfilled .
As always much appreciate your daily updates , they just about keep us all focused on working hard all day every day in order to pay for the holidays in the mountains .
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gwatts10, how it will play from about 10/11 February is pretty unclear at present.
The form horse at present is cold and dry.
In the last week or so we've seen a big switch from the +AO (and to a lesser extent +NAO) which has dominated since early in December. At least for now that's presenting itself as high pressure over Scandinavia and Siberia. With dry, cold pushing across from the east.
So we currently have some very cold temperatures across the Alps and much of Europe. It looks like these will rise closer to average from the middle of next week. After that there is quite a bit of uncertainty between each run and different models. A number of recent runs, though perhaps not the majority are suggesting a further cold burst from next weekend.
Beyond that from mid month there are a number of hints at high pressure building over Greenland sending a northerly into Europe, but it's too far out to have confidence either in whether it will happen or detail on when. I'd imagine this might become clearer by the end of the weekend.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
What do northerlies tend to bring (apart from cold), Noza? Dry and cold or just cold?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Here are some ensembles. Currently these show the 00z GFS run. One point of interest is the way the spread from around 10 February is actually increasing again and throwing in some notably cold runs including the control run.
If that verified it would produce substantial snow in the Eastern Pyrenees and on into the French and Italian Alps (and also further snow in SE England). But given how much chopping and changing there is I wouldn't have that much faith in it at this stage.
Off into FI and the 06z throws out some snowy charts for the Alps mid month.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Link to current Met Office severe weather warnings for UK.
You can see the strength of the blocking (red) forecast to the north for the rest of February and indeed weaker, but not insubstantial for March.
Looking at the ensembles above (now updated to 06z) also interesting to note a general downward shift (especially the control) from 10 February. The operational isn't buying it yet, but it's worth keeping an eye on which way this trend goes.
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12GFS throws everything but the kitchen sink from mid month. It would certainly not look dry, with storms pouring in on a southern track, bringing heavy snow and at times heavy rain. Interesting anyway.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
From Tuesday temperatures in the Alps look like pushing back towards seasonal averages. But it doesn't look like lasting long and by the end of the week they are dropping down once more.
Here's GFS 06z temperatures for next Saturday early morning.
Not quite as cold as this weekend, but cold nevertheless.
And whilst midweek sees the operational run either approaching or just touching the 30 year average, it spends most of the run below or well below average across the Alps.
Tuesday also looks like it might see some light snow in Austria.
You'd want to see some consistency building around that though before taking it too seriously.
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07 February looks like being the last of the recent run of really cold days in the Alps. Midweek will see temperatures almost reaching or in some cases just touching seasonal average... before... it all gets much colder again by the end of the week.
After some light snow across Austria tomorrow, 10 February could also see some fresh snow across the southern Alps as low pressure pushes through the Mediterranean.
Not much consistency in the models at present (signs of further northern blocking in February seem to be less strong in recent runs, but uncertainty is the main picture).
Looking at FI it looks cold (op runs in the Alps still really ranging from below or much below average). But perhaps not quite as cold as the last few days. In general precipitation levels are much lower than normal, but potentially increasing from mid month.
nozawaonsen, started snowing lightly around Schladming late morning and now coming down at a moderate pace, very fine flakes. Can't see much on the radar so probably quite local. The forecast seem to suggest snow this evening and tomorrow, so a little early bonus, not sure it's going to add up to many cms.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Temperatures in the Alps look like rallying tomorrow.
But only briefly.
By the end of the week... temperatures plunge and it will be very cold once more especially in the eastern Alps as cold weather once again pushes in from the east.
It looks like temperatures will once again push back towards normal as we head into next week, though still cold overnight and by and large below average.
Middle of next week and middle of the month is potentially interesting. Since last night ECM has started developing a pattern of blocking over the Atlantic with cold and snow pouring down over Europe.
GFS isn't quite picking it up. The control is closer than the op. But it's worth keeping an eye on.
Longer term although we might lift from the deep cold by the start of next week GFS isn't showing much interest in anything under than a cold FI at present.
On which subject Onthesnow.com had a link to this interesting piece about keeping hydrated whilst skiing.
In particular if you are out and about in the very cold weather worth noting that if you are not properly hydrated "you will get colder easier and be more susceptible to frostbite."
Noza - any view on what the Pyrennes will be like next week? Have small ones planning to ski and not sure how they will take to the very cold tempertures!
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Simone, cold is going to be a feature. Possibly some snow midweek, but that depends on how that low pressure pushing down from the north develops (and indeed if it develops).
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Still seems a mixed bag for next week in the western alps, Nozza. The wigglies i was looking at suggest cold (as does pretty much everything my limited knowledge can interpret) but there seems a lot of variation in the amount of precipitation. Is this the effect of whether/how far a low pressure area pushes down? Some of the ECM charts for next week look (to my untrained eye) to have a ridge of high-ish pressure poking in from somewhere in the atlantic - what weather pattern would that bring?
What's your best guess for next week in the western alps? Ta for your continued wisdom and sagacity.
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There's a substantial spilt between the big three at +144 on St Valentine's Day.
GFS - has weak low pressure pushing down which would bring some snow to the Pyrenees towards the end of next week.
ECM - has very strong high pressure out west, preventing any northern incursion from going near the Alps.
UKMO - has the best northerly attack.
Which I'd interpret as suggesting a mid week push from the north next week is looking slightly less likely, but still possible amongst a lot of uncertainty (though with the current form horse cold and dry). This evening's 12z runs may introduce some consistency one way or another.
Otherwise temperatures are set to tumble at the end of this week, up to a 20C drop in parts of the eastern Alps from the brief midweek respite.
[not impossible incidentally that northern and central parts of UK might see further snow at the end of this week].
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Thanks, Oh Wise One. There was some slight scaremongering going on about snow at UK airports at the weekend, but as you say there's no consistency. Hoping our lunchtime flight out of Leeds Bratfud on Sunday will be ok!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
All three of the major models lining up an incursion from the north middle of next week now. How far it sits from east to west and how strong it is varies from run to run as does the position of high pressure in the Atlantic.
Nevertheless to varying degrees all three would take things colder once more (though probably not as cold as over the coming few days) and possibly bring some fresh snow to the Alps. Still some inconsistencies to be ironed out, but following this morning's output the pendulum has swung towards more than less likely.
In the nearer timeframe Met Office weather warnings are now out for snow across much of the UK (not all) on Thursday and Friday (and that northerly next week has the potential to deliver snow to the UK too, especially if the UKMO model verified.
Following this through into FI you start to see more of a northwesterly flow (which we haven't seen since January). Which would potentially mean it would be a little closer to average temperature wise, but potentially quite a bit snowier.
Obviously though that is far too far out to do much more than note.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Continues to look like a visit from the north middle of next week. Various options after that.
But it continues to look for now like the second half of February will be snowier than the first half for the Alps.
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perfect in the build up to the 11th March
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
Interesting 18z GFS op run. Again you see that northerly pushing cold and snow into the Alps and to a lesser extent the Pyrenees from 14/15 February.
GFS +156
Following this through into FI you start to see more of a northwesterly flow (which we haven't seen since January). Which would potentially mean it would be a little closer to average temperature wise, but potentially quite a bit snowier.
GFS +276
Obviously though that is far too far out to do much more than note
And both look potentially "interesting" for us here in Scotland
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Bringing cold and snow to the Alps (and potentially parts of the UK too).
GFS 12z had a similarish pattern too (slightly further east). And again going on to bring in a north westerly flow in FI around 20/21 February, offering further snow options for the Alps, though potentially milder temperatures.
Will it be colder at the bottom of 6 feet of snow or on top in these temperatures
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
Will it be colder at the bottom of 6 feet of snow or on top in these temperatures
I was interested to see last week that the air temperature was minus 22 and the snow temperature minus 9 (according to the local reports). So I guess it's warmer under the snow!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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pam w, Arno,
Damn so it could all still melt before I get out there April 7th !!! thought that would be the answer , as the pots in my garden still under snow have softish soil ,and the exposed ground is mostly frozen
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After all it is free
The ground is like the sea in that temperature changes over a long time, whereas the air temperature can go up and down far more rapidly.
On top of that as Arno, says the snow acts as an insulator like a great big blanket on the ground. The thicker the blanket the less the ground temperature is effected by swings in the air temperature. The top layer of the snowpack/blanket also reacts more quickly to air temperatures. All of this creates a temperature gradient in the snow pack.
Still looks like a visit from the north in the middle of next week. Some of the models have sent it further east this morning. This doesn't change things too much for the Alps, though may have an impact on whether it reaches the UK. Could see substantial snow and colder temperatures once more (after a brief rally at the start of next week).
FI in general sees a more north westerly or westerly pattern, possibly less extreme cold, possibly more snow.
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The base of the snowpack is normally just below freezing. This link has some recent snowpack profiles. The red line shows the temp starting at around zero and reaching near the air temp at the top.
http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=profile
Bloody cold again today,a little light snow. Several forecast point to snow mid next week.
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Noza - on most of the maps I looked at this morning there's a wee ridge from a high pressure area out in the atlantic that extends over to the western alps - would this have the effect of diverting any snow further east? It seems to appear about 14/15 Feb on both ECM and GFS maps.
The wigglies seem to be starting to agree that PdS will see some precipitation tuesday or wednesday next week.
FAQ
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for us here in Scotland