 Poster: A snowHead
|
| RetroBod wrote: |
| Hey Noz do you ever get to enjoy the European winters that you are so eminently forecasting? |
Good point.... Noz - you'd be getting a pint or two from me if coincidence put us in the same place at the same time.
You happen to be in Andermatt second week of March? 
Good work - much appreciated!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| Hurtle wrote: |
achilles, my goodness, don't even think about him not posting.  His posts are amazingly wonderful. |
I am not clear why they are amazingly wonderful - but I can see that the posts have provided have provided a lot of entertainment. But then, so did David Goldsmith's - and we have survived his recent absence. I regret easiski not posting in sH any more (and I know weather outlook threads used to wind her up) but that's up to her - it's the way it goes. I don't think any poster's perceived eminence should effectively allow him to bar other posts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Liking the Arlberg wigglies, once this pesky warm spell gets out of the way, the ground can cool down nicely in preperation for the spring storms 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
achilles, nor have I tried?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| Quote: |
I don't think any poster's perceived eminence should effectively allow him to bar other posts
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
nozawaonsen, fair point, my choice of words was wrong. 'him' should have read 'a supporter' since the comments go back to something said by another poster. Please accept my apologies, and BTW, I don't wish to rain on your parade - I was just advocating free speech.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen, I find your posts very useful and interesting -first thing I look for when I sign on..........
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Shimmy Alcott, fab. Where did you get that from?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06z GFS shows another evolution in FI, and one I rather don't like. Freezing levels at >3000m for the whole the the last week. Just on run though and a long way off - lets hope it doesn't come to fruition.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
As philmes says the 06z shows what happens when the Scandinavian high is less strong, allowing warm air to eventually fill in after the Atlantic has come through. The result would be a warmer and wetter half term. Still very unclear and will be for a couple more days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hurtle, I just Googled it
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
nozawaonsen,
Isn't it irritating when the GFS flips so dramatically on the 06 run - leaves you most of the working day waiting for better news. On this however, most of the other models (from my very novice eye) appear to hold with the cold?????
Hopefully, the GFS will conduct another flip at 12!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| As philmes says the 06z shows what happens when the Scandinavian high is less strong, allowing warm air to eventually fill in after the Atlantic has come through. The result would be a warmer and wetter half term. Still very unclear and will be for a couple more days. |
Warmer certainly, but not wetter. High pressure there will keep things very dry indeed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
| Mattmulkeen wrote: |
RetroBod,
we need the cold first! Hopefully, freezing level back to the valley by thursday - then it can snow all it likes.
gonna pack double thermals for next week though.  |
Good call....... Bring it on!!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
philmes, depends where you are looking. Low pressure going over the top could make things wetter in places. On that particular run the operational drops this at +204.
The control went a lot larger. This would be not dissimilar to the situation early in the season when the high pressure was keeping the western Alps dry, but the east was still getting snow (or rain at lower altitudes if this verified).
Anyway would need a lot more support to take this seriously. An impressive flip though. Underlining how uncertain it all remains. Will be interesting to see which way the 12zs go...
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 14-02-11 13:03; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| An impressive flip though. |
It certainly is. The 06z ensembles for the second week are almost a mirror image of the 00z ones!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
looks like broad disagreement from the 20th.....when do the models flip from low to high resolution runs??
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
i think nosa answered this for me recently and i think it was two days out
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I'll be a like a drowned rat in Scheffau if that 06 forecast is correct - cant be having that...... next forecast please! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
As forecast the central Pyrenees received snow overnight allowing me to make 1st tracks this morning on a good base with 10cm of fresh snow on top. Moderate to heavy snow continued into the afternoon and though a little calmer now the forecast is showing a repeat again tonight and snow on and off for the next couple of days.
I think that we have been lucky, as our last snow was only two weeks ago and then it snowed for almost 4 days and though only light it did deliver almost 50cm cumulatively. The piste are in excellent condition though even with this latest snow the off piste is pretty poor unless you go high up and find some north facing couloirs.
It is still warmer than it should be, with the snow line now down to about 850m.
I guess that compared to some of our neighbours in the alps we should count our blessings 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
kitenski, the switch from high to low res is at +192, so eight days out. Worth remembering that 06z also has different initial input from 00z. But as much as anything it is just very finely balanced at present with small changes in the set up having really big impact next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| kitenski, the switch from high to low res is at +192, so eight days out. Worth remembering that 06z also has different initial input from 00z. But as much as anything it is just very finely balanced at present with small changes in the set up having really big impact next week. |
ah, thanks alot. If you have a spare minute, can you explain what is different about the inputs from 06z and 00z, and I'll cut n paste them into the beginners guide....
Cheers,
Greg
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
kitenski,
00z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Mattmulkeen, thanks
So does that make 18z and 00z more 'realistic' than the other two as based on a fuller set of data???
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
12z is going to be absolutely grim in the longer timeframe.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| kitenski, the switch from high to low res is at +192, so eight days out. Worth remembering that 06z also has different initial input from 00z. But as much as anything it is just very finely balanced at present with small changes in the set up having really big impact next week. |
could have sworn it was 2 days, ruddy drinking ruins me,but then i have to drink whilst reading this site , waiting for snow
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
12z a worse copy of 06z. Huge high pressure inflates over Europe. The precipitation over Austria at 192 hours that nozawaonsen mentioned is still there, but the freezing level is around 2800m by then.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Freezing levels in Austria don't look like they ever get higher than around 2300m on the operational rum? Even then the operational run was a mild outlier. With mean much closer to seasonal averages. On the back of an 00z which showed very cold temperatures.
All of which really suggests to me we are really no clearer to knowing how the half term week will look...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Freezing levels in Austria don't look like they ever get higher than around 2300m on the operational rum? |
Indeed - typo. By the end of the run they're edging up to about 2500m.
| Quote: |
| Even then the operational run was a mild outlier. With mean much closer to seasonal averages. On the back of an 00z which showed very cold temperatures. All of which really suggests to me we are really no clearer to knowing how the half term week will look... |
There's more scatter on the 12z ensembles, thankfully. You'd have to back the high pressure solution though - there's certainly quite a lot of teleconnection support beyond the basic models. The question is whether that sits over the alps, or to the west.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
ECM 12z goes for a similar solution to the GFS 12z. Not especially good for the French alps. Austria and east Switzerland may do better.
This is bit of a nuisance as I'm off to 3V on the 26th and it looks like the limited amount of precipitation over the next two days is all there's going to be until March. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Raining in the Grand Bo
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
18z GFS much the same as 06z and 12z out to 192 hours. The pattern for high pressure to build over France towards the British Isles looks fairy solid and there is general cross model agreement.
The question now is how long will the high pressure be in control, and how far north or east will it get? The low resolution part of the 18z run brings a somewhat half hearted easterly in, which would probably be fairly productive for Austria at least. Sucks to be in the French alps though...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12z ECM was colder than 12z GFS. 18z GFS looks colder than 12z GFS overall. 18z GFS operational is certainly a lot wetter in the Eastern Alps. Much of it would be snow certainly at altitude.
Overall a day which shows the models are a long way from sorting anything out. The high pressure builds from the south as it has on every run for days now. But the crucial part, where and how it builds, remains unclear...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
maybe not after the next few days, a little bit of gold from heaven?? things change you know better than most,
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Overall a day which shows the models are a long way from sorting anything out. |
I sort of agree with this. The general synoptic pattern seems to be agreed upon, but the fine details remain to be resolved.
It is very clear right now that the further east you are, the better.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
This morning the 00z GFS was showing -10C to -15C for the middle of next week, this afternoon the 12z was showing +4C to +8C for the middle of next week. That seems like quite a big detail to me? (and high pressure building over Europe was present in both runs).
I don't know which way it will go tomorrow. I didn't expect the flip from 00z to 06z today. But to my mind until we see a bit more consistency, in either direction, I would be wary of making much of a forecast.
[18z operational also shows a lot more precipitation than any recent runs, especially in the east, but until it gets repeated over a series of runs I would not have a great deal of confidence in it]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
