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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
courtesy of Moris at WEPOWDER

•a pretty sunny weekend coming up with good snow to be found
•there will be some higher clouds
•but the biggest problem are the wind slabs that are still very sensitive and reactive
•check your avalanche message and adjust your plans accordingly
•intense storm cycle from Monday
•Especially Tuesday a lot of wind with closed lifts as a result
•harsh weather above the tree line
•therefore skip Monday and Tuesday
•the wind will decrease from Wednesday: powder alert # 10 will be ON!
•Wednesday-Thursday deep treeruns in the northwest
•still uncertain after Thursday: milder again or a new storm
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
J2R wrote:
Out of curiosity, does anyone on here organise their ski holidays on the basis of snow forecasts, keeping flexibility up to the last minute? That is, maybe blocking out a certain week, and then grabbing a last minute deal to an area which forecasts suggest will get good snow? Or even, for those lucky enough to have great flexibility with their time, not even deciding on the when, let alone the where, until they see a forecast for good snow in a certain area for the next week, say, whereupon they grab whatever deal is available to there? It's just something I've been wondering about doing, but obviously one has to have a reasonable faith in the forecast for a few days out (although, of course, you can still choose wisely on the basis of where there has already been good snow accumulation).


Most of my trips are like this. However, there are pros and cons. In particular, if you can imagine what you've put yourself (and everyone else on this thread snowHead ) through, and then add in the extra dilemma of whether you should go or not, the stress of rising plane prices and vanishing hotel availability, and whether you will get a better opportunity in the future, it can involve weeks of torture. And even after all that it may not work out.

However when it does work out it's superb.

Only really works if you have work flexibility and are not bringing the kids.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
zzz wrote:
@davidof, in the Chablais the 20cm of new snow has been largely blown off the sub layer of ice. It was either too cold, too light or too hard depending which way you looked at it. Made for interesting skiing!


I will bold the Ice problem as it is causing a lot of incidents off piste as surprised skiers (like me) go from powder to sheet ice on wind exposed slopes. 4 groups, including 2 with instructors who should be better informed, had to be rescued at l'Alpe d'Huez yesterday on the Côtes de Rivet. Take care.


Somewhere intrigued by this. As in it was dangerous to continue down the slope or climb back out?
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8611 wrote:
davidof wrote:
zzz wrote:
@davidof, in the Chablais the 20cm of new snow has been largely blown off the sub layer of ice. It was either too cold, too light or too hard depending which way you looked at it. Made for interesting skiing!


I will bold the Ice problem as it is causing a lot of incidents off piste as surprised skiers (like me) go from powder to sheet ice on wind exposed slopes. 4 groups, including 2 with instructors who should be better informed, had to be rescued at l'Alpe d'Huez yesterday on the Côtes de Rivet. Take care.


Somewhere intrigued by this. As in it was dangerous to continue down the slope or climb back out?


https://www.ledauphine.com/faits-divers-justice/2020/02/06/isere-a-huez-quatorze-skieurs-secourus-dans-les-cotes-de-rivet

Quote:
All of them found themselves technically stranded on an extremely icy slope
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8611 wrote:
davidof wrote:
zzz wrote:
@davidof, in the Chablais the 20cm of new snow has been largely blown off the sub layer of ice. It was either too cold, too light or too hard depending which way you looked at it. Made for interesting skiing!


I will bold the Ice problem as it is causing a lot of incidents off piste as surprised skiers (like me) go from powder to sheet ice on wind exposed slopes. 4 groups, including 2 with instructors who should be better informed, had to be rescued at l'Alpe d'Huez yesterday on the Côtes de Rivet. Take care.


Somewhere intrigued by this. As in it was dangerous to continue down the slope or climb back out?


both, i would imagine, they couldn't continue down due to ice and I guess getting a load of clients to take skis off and climb up a steep slope didn't appeal to the instructors.
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I can certainly back up the ice warning, for Alpe d'Huez anyway, as ended up with a sore knee after nipping "just outside the poles rolling eyes " on what looked like wind blown snow, which it probably was before it froze into something resembling lumps of waste concrete scattered about the place. Sad
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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[quote="8611"]
J2R wrote:


However when it does work out it's superb.

Only really works if you have work flexibility and are not bringing the kids.


I've tried this a few times with success, in the Pyrenees it works well as you can usually get hotels with free cancellation until a few days before, never seemed to work in Austria though, the accommodation aways seemed way too expensive at the last min
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
[quote="mrvinegar"]
8611 wrote:
J2R wrote:


However when it does work out it's superb.

Only really works if you have work flexibility and are not bringing the kids.


never seemed to work in Austria though, the accommodation aways seemed way too expensive at the last min


Interesting, that's never been my experience, though I'm not sure if I have been during half term (I'd be surprised if I haven't at some point)
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Where have you been going in Austria?
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I think I would be just trying to grab a last minute package deal to the requisite country, rather than a DIY option (where I could imagine the pricing might be eye-watering).
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mrvinegar wrote:
Where have you been going in Austria?


Off top of my head, Ischgl, Zell, Fieberbrunn and Mayrhofen were all last minuters over last few years. Fieberbrunn was expensive, as in poor value, but it was the weekend of the bank holiday in Southern Germany
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
J2R wrote:
I think I would be just trying to grab a last minute package deal to the requisite country, rather than a DIY option (where I could imagine the pricing might be eye-watering).


Been a long time since I did a package but I would budget around €1,000 for four days' skiing. €200 flights, €100 car, €100 per night accomodation, ski pass and gear, Zwiegelt + Grostl

Could be done cheaper than that on occasion

Anyway off topic. Back to wondering if one such trip might be merited in the coming weeks!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Stunning weather in Alps today and yesterday.

Meanwhile SLF outlook for Switzerland.

“Outlook through Monday, 10.02.2020

Sunday

During the morning it will still be rather sunny. In the afternoon, cloud cover will move in from the west. Westerly winds will intensify significantly and conditions will become stormy. However it is expected to stay dry until evening.
Avalanche danger levels are not expected to change significantly.

Monday

Skies will be heavily overcast for the most part and repeated bouts of snowfall are anticipated in the northern regions. The snowfall level will descend from 1800 m down to 1300 m. Winds will be blowing at storm strength from westerly directions.

As a result of storm-strength winds and fresh snow, avalanche danger levels are expected to increase.”



http://youtube.com/v/8kl6q_9qZOs
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1

definitely potentially for transfer day chaos.....although granted 7 days out and much can change
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Met Office have upped to an amber wind warning for the UK south coast on Sunday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09&id=9b547185-76da-486f-9786-760ccd42761d
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Met Office have upped to an amber wind warning for the UK south coast on Sunday.


Yes, from 0900, so if you've a flight before then from London, pray it doesn't get delayed!! Been scouring the web for "commentary" regarding potential disruption that Met Office alludes to. So far on Bristol airport, who said: should be okay...!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
With a bit of luck this won't affect a late afternoon flight from Stansted. Fingers crossed!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@J2R, well if it does you don’t need to worry about wind in Italy.
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@nozawaonsen, Laughing
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This evening’s scores on the doors.

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its backed away for Fri & Sat day now........

http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Substantial upgrade to area covered by tomorrow’s Amber alert for Wales and England.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09&id=9b547185-76da-486f-9786-760ccd42761d
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It does look like a good snowy week in the northern Alps coming up from Monday if a bit wild at times. It will arrive with storm strength winds particularly in the west and initially could be rain at resort level before temperatures fall. The combination of storm strength winds with fresh snow means disruption is likely in places.

This is how GFS sees it out to the end of Friday.



Courchevel



Lech



In terms of outliers worth noting the continued possibility of something around 14/15 February though clearly very limited support.

Far out into FI worth noting that the last few op runs have all trended very cold. 06z picks up a little support, but nothing serious. But it has started cropping up with increasing frequency. If it’s started picking up support by COP tomorrow might be worth starting to give it a bit more credibility.

Meanwhile might want to select the fat skis...

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SLF outlook for Switzerland Monday and Tuesday.

” Outlook through Tuesday, 11.02.2020

In the northern regions, skies will be variably cloudy on both days and repeated bouts of snowfall are anticipated, some of which will be persistent, particularly on Tuesday in the furthermost western regions and on the northern flank of the Alps. The snowfall level is expected to descend from approximately 2000 m to approximately 1000 m on Monday. A stormy to gale-strength westerly to southwesterly wind will be blowing. Consequently, the fresh snow and old snow alike will be transported. The danger of dry-snow avalanches is expected to increase significantly at high altitudes. At intermediate altitudes, gliding avalanches will be possible.
In the southern regions the westerly wind will also be blowing at storm strength, but only a small amount of snowfall is anticipated. The danger of dry-snow avalanches will also increase, but less drastically than in the northern regions.”
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12z GFS op again goes on to build Atlantic block in FI allowing cold air to flow down.



Still way too far out to take seriously, but so far showing a degree of persistence with this evolution.
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The mid-range guidance has backed off a little bit on big snow this week. Someone between Vanoise and the Arlberg will probably still get 50cm+ cumulative, but the huge numbers have largely disappeared.

Visited Laax today for the first time. I was surprised how thin the cover was. I knew most of the terrain had a southerly exposure, but I was still surprised how much damage the wind and sun could do to the snowpack. Almost everything in the sun was baked... with a crust to 3000m. There was a little powdery snow to be had, but only very high and shaded. Pistes were okay but not outstanding: a little firm and scraped up high and a little thin and wet down low. Pistes groomed at 5pm have a tendency to freeze up overnight. It was also very crowded. Overall very spring like today. But skiing in sunshine and no wind is a pleasure. A day like today could be frustrating in flat light. But instead I had a blast hunting smooth slush and windblown powder offpiste.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
18z view.



And again heads towards some sort of Atlantic block around 20 February.



Slightly less pronounced than 12z, but FI so...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Some very high temps being forecast for resort level in Bormio next weekend and in to the following week.




This was sent by a friend who is already there. Normally this is completely covered in snow and you can ski to the deck of the Funivia Hotel.



Think I'll add a couple of t-shirts and a pair of shorts in to my bag!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The powerful jet stream is also leading to some very fast trans Atlantic flights as they hitch a ride. Sub 5 hour crossings last night.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1226395432252780544?s=21
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, crazy flight times, still no where near as quick as concord tho!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Time to saddle up...



WRF view of accumulated snow out to Wednesday (ie the first round of snowfall this week).



Another bout coming Thursday/Friday.

GFS op then throws out a big outlier for snowfall/rain in the northern Alps Saturday and Sunday, but with no support right now.

Meanwhile a number of ensembles are picking up on that Atlantic blocking idea. ECM also toying with it at the end of the run.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Enough talk about the models, I want to know where @nozawaonsen gets his photos

I also want to know where @davidof gets his, but for different reasons
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Kicking off with a strong Föhn wind this evening and tomorrow.

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Very hot outside tonight and its going to rain very high again. 2600 meters around Grenoble tonight.
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Geneva, Bern, Zurich, and Munich are not forecast to drop below 0°C all week.
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SLF‘s outlook for Switzerland.

“Weather forecast through Monday, 10.02.2020

In the western regions, skies will be predominantly overcast, in the eastern regions variably cloudy. Repeated bouts of precipitation are expected, during which the snowfall level is expected to descend from approximately 2200 m down to 1000 to 1200 m. In the southern regions, only a small amount of precipitation is anticipated and during the afternoon it will be quite sunny.

Fresh snow

The following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated above approximately 2000 m by Monday afternoon:

furthermost western part of Lower Valais: 30 to 50 cm;

northern Valais: 20 to 30 cm;

remaining parts of Valais, northern flank of the Alps, furthermost northern parts of Grisons: 10 to 20 cm;

Ticino, remaining parts of Grisons: only a few centimetres or else it will remain dry.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between -3 °C in the northern regions and 0 °C in the southern regions.

Wind

Winds will be blowing at storm strength from westerly to southwesterly directions,
in the western regions and on the northern flank of the Alps at all altitudes;
in the other regions of Switzerland at high altitudes.

Outlook through Wednesday, 12.02.2020

Tuesday

The winds will be blowing at strong to storm strength from west to northwest. In the Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps and in northern Grisons, 20 to 40 cm of fresh snow is expected to fall above approximately 1000 m. The avalanche danger levels will increase further. The situation is particularly critical for winter sports enthusiasts. For large-scale avalanches plummeting all the way to the valley floor, the amounts of fresh snow will presumably be too small except in the furthermost western regions. In the southwestern regions, avalanche danger levels are not expected to change significantly.

Wednesday

Not much additional snowfall is anticipated, and the winds are expected to slacken off incrementally. Nevertheless, the avalanche situation will remain critical, in particular for winter sports enthusiasts.”
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@davidof, Laughing bonne chance
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Some unseasonably high temperatures forecast for the NW Alps from next weekend onwards (post this week’s snow) : 18C at 1,400 metres for example. This is from Bergfex, hopefully it’s a complete outlier. The flip side is that terraces will be buzzing. Time to get the factor 50 and your best shades out.
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Rob Mackley wrote:
@psyxologos, yes , please read the thread above . La Thuile is under the 4 on 148 in the western alps


Thanks
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